The SoapBoxers

For the second time in recent years, a divorce threatens to tear apart a team in the National League West.  In 2008, Padres owners John and Becky Moores filed for divorce, and a substantial share of the club was sold as a result.  Now it is the Dodgers caught in the crossfire of a divorce.

Frank and Jamie McCourt (no, not the Frank McCourt who wrote Angela’s Ashes) bought the Dodgers in 2004.  Before she was fired (by her husband) at the end of last season, Jamie McCourt, as CEO of the Dodgers, was the highest ranking female executive in baseball (granted, this is a bit easier to accomplish when you own the team).

With the Dodgers a non-factor in the competitive NL West, the focus of Los Angeles is on the marathon divorce trial.  The trial began on August 30th and will pick up again on Monday after a two week recess.  It is expected that legal fees will total $20 million by the time the case concludes.  This is not going to be an amicable settlement.  Both sides are accusing the other of wrongdoing.  Frank McCourt has accused his wife of cheating with her driver.  On the flip side, Jamie’s lawyer are accusing Frank of legal shenanigans with respect to a post-nuptial agreement the couple signed.  There are six copies of the agreement.  Three of them list the Dodgers as Frank’s separate property, the other three do not (in which case they would be joint property).  Forbes has recently pegged the value of the team at $700 million … so you can understand why the two sides are willing to pony up $20 million for the best lawyers money can buy.

Lots of interesting tidbits about the couple are spilling out.  Perhaps the fact that I found the most interesting is that they employed a hairstylist who worked on their hair five days a week – at a staggering cost of $150,000.  How vain must you be to spend that sort of money on your hair?  I spend $0 on haircuts per year.  Heck, I doubt that Warren Buffett spends $150,000 on haircuts annually.  Or $15,000.  Or $1500.  Probably more than I spend, though.

In other news:

The trial of Andrew Gallo began on Monday.  Gallo is charged in the death of Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart and two others as the result of a fatal auto accident in April of 2009.  Gallo was drunk at the time of the accident (registering a .19 blood alcohol content two hours after the accident) and was driving 66 mph in a 35 mph zone.  Gallo had previously been convicted of DUI and had signed an agreement acknowledging that if he caused a fatal accident while under the influence, he would be charged with murder.  Because of this agreement, Gallo is being charged with 2nd degree murder.

The defense attorney in the case is accusing the DA of overcharging Gallo because Adenhart was a celebrity.  The DA countered by saying that 10 drunk driving cases have been prosecuted as murders since 2008.

Personally, I think it makes perfect sense to charge Gallo with murder.  He was clearly aware of the consequences of his actions, since he had previously been notified that this sort of accident would result in a murder charge against him.  He killed three people, was driving 30 mph above the speed limit, and had a blood alcohol level more than two times the legal limit (again, this was two hours after the accident – the level would have been even higher than the .19 at the time of the accident).  Celebrity victim or not, this is EXACTLY the sort of case that should trigger California’s “DUI as murder” statute.

In closing, I’ll turn this into a short public service announcement.  If you think you have a drinking problem, you’re probably right.  Seek help, either through a doctor or an organization such as Alcoholics Anonymous.  It’s not too late to get help.

Max Monet smiled and pondered the old adage – “it’s an ill wind that blows no good.” The ill wind of this recession had certainly been profitable for Max.

The real estate market had turned sour quickly, with many properties selling for small fractions of their going rate just a year earlier. Max had quickly snapped up two adjacent properties.

Camp Serenity had once been a popular place to get away from the hustle and bustle. The numbers of visitors had fallen off dramatically when urban sprawl brought with it new corporate neighbors.

Hopkins Distributing was one of those neighbors. The warehouse once had trucks coming and going at all hours – providing a steady source of employment for the residents of the town.

When the recession hit, the corporate suits at Hopkins decided that the facility was superfluous and shut it down. It was too late for Camp Serenity – the Hopkins facility had forced it onto life support years ago.

Most observers looked at these properties and saw failure. Max Monet saw potential. He made bids on both properties, and was soon the proud owner.

A couple of months later, Max Monet hit the road on a marketing tour. The product he was selling was Camp Serenity. Camp Serenity was touted as a think tank for the new generation of humanities scholars. Get away from the rat race for a while and focus on your writing, your art, or your research. Participate in seminars in your field of study. No fees were charged for room and board.

In an economy with so many unemployed liberal arts majors, Max would have certainly signed up quite a few prospects – but Max had sweetened the deal. When Camp Serenity was marketed across the region, it had sex appeal. Max had brought his staff with him – the group of men and women who would lead the seminars and serve as resources for the other residents of the camp. They all had graduate degrees, but had been unable to land jobs in their field of study. They were also a remarkably attractive group – almost as if they had been chosen more for their looks than their academic credentials.

And indeed they had been. A large number of people who would have been on the fence about the idea of Camp Serenity under normal circumstances had been putty in the hands of the staff. Heck, they were unemployed anyway – why not escape to Camp Serenity and try to write the great American novel?

There was one small catch to the free room, board, and tuition. Each resident had to do a bit of work-study each day. The residents were served a hot breakfast before heading to the Hopkins building to begin the morning shift at 8 AM. The shift was done at 10 AM, and they were free to focus on their intellectual pursuits until lunchtime.

The afternoon shift began at 1 and finished up by 3, in time for a daily lecture. The residents could attend a lecture in their own subject area, or cross over to learn about a new topic. Not surprisingly, the most attractive staff members attracted the largest crowds. They probably could have read the phone book aloud and still have people coming back every day.

After the lectures and subsequent discussions, there was plenty of time to work on individual intellectual pursuits, small group discussions, or even a nap. By 6 PM, the group reported back to the main hall for supper.

After supper, they headed back to finish off another short shift. The two hour shift ended at 9, and everyone had free time until they decided to go to bed.

The schedule was a bit different on Sunday. No work – just lectures and time for individual study.

Max had been mildly surprised when three residents had secured book deals for novels written entirely within the confines of Camp Serenity. He supposed that it actually was a good environment for intellectual pursuits. Most importantly to Max, though, it was a way to squeeze 36 hours of labor out of people for minimum cost. The barracks cost virtually nothing to maintain, and the fare at the dining hall leaned heavily toward cheap, filling meals, with on occasional steak dinner thrown in to boost morale.

If you don’t realize that I’m a big baseball fan, you’re new around here.  I like baseball as much as Evan likes Evernote – and nearly as much as Lazy Man hates Mona Vie.  I subscribe to MLB Extra Innings, get Sports Weekly in my mailbox every week (just for the baseball coverage), and pre-order Ron Shandler’s newest book every year.  I’d say that it borders on an obsession, but I have to be honest with myself – it crossed the threshold many years ago.  To paraphrase the quote from Jerry Maguire, it had me at “play ball”.

As a fan of the Colorado Rockies, I’m acutely aware of the differences between the offensive numbers the Rockies compile at Coors Field versus the numbers they compile on the road.  Although the installation of a humidor several years ago has cut the gap somewhat, the team typically achieves an OPS (on-base-plus-slugging) of somewhere between 100 and 150 points higher at home (the 220 point differential this year is an outlier).  The typical Major League player has an OPS 31 points higher at home – so Coors Field clearly aids the Rockies hitters.

Chipper Jones of the Braves has thrust his own opinion into this issue into the spotlight, suggesting that Carlos Gonzalez’s numbers are not legitimate due to CarGo’s massive home/road splits.  Never mind that Chipper enjoyed a 244 point differential in his 1999 MVP season.  Apparently dramatic splits are OK, as long as they aren’t compiled by a Rockies hitter.

Of course, a couple of things often get ignored.  First, the home/road disparity can be skewed by the unbalanced scheduled.  The Rockies play more games in San Diego’s Petco Park (a pitcher’s paradise) than the Cubs do, for example (this is also why ESPN’s park factors are flawed).  The second is an effect that has been theorized but not proven – that there is a Coors Hangover effect that negatively affects Rockies players on the road.  The gist of this argument is that Rockies hitters get lulled into the flatness of breaking pitches (curve balls, sliders, etc.) at home and are not prepared for the sharper breaks at lower elevations.  A couple of years ago, I analyzed some data that supported this theory.  In 2008, the Rockies hit line drives on 23% of balls they put into play at home, and just 19.6% of balls they put into play on the road – an indication that they are actually making more solid contact at home, rather than simply enjoying the fact that the balls travels further in thin air.  This was an incomplete study, as I did not analyze the splits for other teams.

More importantly, players on the same team are affected differently by the park.  Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies has an OPS 400 points higher at home this year.  Troy Tulowitzki has a more modest 138 point differential.  I struggled to find a comparable player to CarGo – but the most notable lefty who played predominately in the post-humidor era and had some power is Brad Hawpe (Todd Helton and Larry Walker played a lot of games pre-humidor).  Hawpe has a career differential of about 50 points – not much more than the 31 points for the average MLB player.  The home/road splits are all over the chart – without a lot of logic to the distribution.

I have theorized for many years that there are mental, psychological, and social factors that come into play.  Some players will be consistent studs at home, while others will stink it up in front of the home team fans and dazzle on the road.  Why?

Unique aspects of the park – Every park has unique aspects.  The most notable is perhaps the Green Monster in Boston’s Fenway Park.  The left field wall is a stone’s throw from home plate – but looms 37 feet high.  A play who can tailor their swing to hit high fly balls to left field will get homers at home and harmless outs on the road.  It’s not always as easy as flipping a switch when you go on the road – but if this player were traded, they would likely change their swing to remove the uppercut.

A less notable feature of each park is the batter’s eye in center field.  You may notice that there are never any fans sitting in dead center field, and that this area is always a solid color.  This is to provide a visual background that allows that hitter to see the ball after it is pitched (imagine trying to see the balls with fans in the background, wearing a variety of colors).  A player may become accustomed to their park’s hitter’s eye and hit better with it in the background.  The ability to adapt your style to suit the ballpark is a skill, not a fluke – and it’s portable to a new home environment.

Climate – Call it the Favre factor.  Some guys are going to prefer cooler climates while other prefer warmed climates.  The data do exist to analyze climate data (the box score contains the temperature at the start of the game), but I haven’t seen much work on this topic.

Family life – Everyone is happier when they are around loved ones.  I would theorize that players in happy relationships will do well at home, and players in bad relationships (or no relationship) will not do as well.  If a marriage is turning from bliss into hell, I would expect a player’s home/road splits to become more road-favorable.

Dining and Entertainment Options – I like having my favorite restaurants around.  Plop me into the midst of a vegan-leaning area and I would not do well.  A happy belly is a happy ballplayer.  Likewise, a player who enjoys mountain hikes is going to be happier with his home base in Denver and a fan of Broadway shows will enjoy New York.  Put the mountain hike guy in New York City and the Broadway guy in Denver and neither is as happy.

Community involvement – Some players are much more involved in the community than others.  Some players are more like hired guns – coming in to do a job, and then leaving town the day after the season is over.  I would expect the more involved players to do better at home, because they have a good feeling about the city.

Fans – And, of course, the player’s relationship with the fans.  If the fans are vocally supportive of a player, I’d expect the player to out-perform the park factors – although it’s possible that some players could try to hard and do worse because of the fans.

Really, all of this boils down to one thing.  Players who feel more “at home” in their home city should have better splits than a player who is more neutral about the surroundings.

I haven’t had the time to compile an all-inclusive list, nor have I had the time to do any statistical analysis of the theory.  What other factors do you think can affect a player’s home/road splits?

My Rockies were 11 games out of first place on August 22.  At the end of the day on Sunday, they had pulled to within 1 1/2 games of the division leading Padres and Giants – courtesy of a 10 game winning streak.  A loss to San Diego on Monday dropped them 2 1/2 games back – but with 17 games left in the regular season, the Rockies could once again make some noise down the stretch.

As impossible as it seems, Carlos Gonzalez has been overshadowed in recent days by Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulo has reported that his wrist is now feeling completely healthy – and Tulo has provided evidence of this by hitting 9 homers in the last 11 games.  Tulo’s career has been sidetracked slightly by injuries and some slows springs, but he is going to be one of the elite shortstops in the game for years to come.

CarGo’s pursuit of the elusive triple crown also seems unlikely at this point, as a hot stretch by Albert Pujols of the Cardinals has put the home run race out of reach for CarGo – barring a Tuloesque stretch of homers.

With the playoffs in sight, we get very different pictures from the two leagues.  In the American Leagues, it’s a foregone conclusion that the Yankees, Devil Rays, Twins, and Rangers are going to the post-season – although there is a possibility that the White Sox could make some noise in the Central.  The Yankees and Devil Rays are locked in a tight battle for the division lead – the loser will be the wild card.

In the National League, the Reds are the only team that can be very comfortable at this point, holding a 7 game lead against the Cardinals.  The Phillies lead the Braves by a game in the East and the Padres lead the Giants by a half game in the West.  None of these four teams is guaranteed a playoff spot – one of them will definitely miss the playoffs, and a late surge by the Rockies could result in two of those four teams missing the post-season.  The sports world might be focused on football, but there is a lot of great baseball drama yet to unfold.

A bit of drama that will unfold after the season involves Yankees star Derek Jeter.  Although it doesn’t get the attention of A-Rod’s salary, Jeter’s 20M+ salary in 2010 is among the highest in the game.  He is a Yankees icon – accumulating more hits than any other Yankee in history.  His post-season heroics have been replayed again and again and again and again.  Jeter leaving the Yankees would be like Peyton Manning leaving the Colts.  If Jeter ends up in Boston, Yankee fans will be storming Brian Cashman’s estate with torches and pitchforks.

Jeter is a free agent at the end of this season.  How much will the Yankees need to offer him to retain his services?  Will they recognize his obvious PR value and keep him near his current salary?  Or will they realize that he’s a 36 year old player in the midst of the worst season of his career, and make an offer commensurate with those facts?  Can they expect him to bounce back in 2011 – or is 2010 the beginning of the end for Jeter?  The mid-30s are unkind to many baseball players, with marked decline in performance being a common occurence.  If Derek Jeter wasn’t Derek Jeter and was instead more of a nomad (thus not eligible for a “loyalty bonus” from his employer) how much would he get?  $6 million per year?  10?

And the interesting quirk is that since Jeter will be a type A free agent, he could draw minimal interest in free agency.  If the Yankees offer arbitration and Jeter declines it, a team signing him would need for forfeit a first round draft pick to the Yankees when they sign him.  The Mets may have been able to con the Braves into signing  a declining Tom Glavine, but I’m willing to bet that some teams paid attention and came to the realization that forfeiting first round talent for a few years of mediocre performance from a declining star is not a great deal.

This story features the debut of Detective Erin Harker – the famed Master of the Obvious.  Erin will be a recurring character on Fiction Friday, using the obvious facts to solve crimes – in much the same way as the great Sherlock Holmes.  Without further ado, Master of the Obvious: Phoning It In.

Dwight was jerked back to reality by the shattered window. In a single moment, the relaxation from a month in Europe was completely reversed. He was stick to his stomach – his car had been violated by a vandal.

Dwight noticed that the car stereo had been yanked partially out before the thief had abandoned his efforts. He breathed a sign of relief – the thief had been interrupted in the middle of the crime. He’d just get the window repaired and all would be right with the world.

A minute later, Dwight realized that the thief hadn’t run off with his tail between his legs. The stereo had been abandoned in favor of a tastier prize – Dwight’s Droid was gone. It would have been useless in Europe, so he had left it behind. Now it was gone for good. Dwight could feel nausea setting in.

Dwight jogged back to the terminal and found a pay phone. He hoped that a quick call to his cell carrier would resolve the problem. Wiggity Wireless was happy to suspend service on the phone – but not willing to waive charges that the thief had rung up. It was his phone, and his responsibility.

Dwight’s bad day got worse when the customer service rep informed him that charges of $2315 had been incurred in the last month! Dwight angrily hung up, infuriated at the worthless phone company. Why couldn’t they have a safety net – notifying customers of extremely abnormal charges?

Dwight’s next call was to the Bayside Police Department. The case landed squarely on the desk of Detective Erin Harker. Harker assured him that the thief would be in cuffs within 24 hours.

“24 hours, boss? That’s a pretty aggressive timeline – even for you.”

Erin laughed at the comment. “Oh ye of little faith, Jacob. They don’t call me Master of the Obvious for nothing. Let’s starting combing through the phone calls made from the man’s phone.”

“Sure, but what’s the point?”

“To identify the thief, of course. The 900 numbers will be of limited value, but the others could prove quite valuable.” She perused the list for a moment. “Here we go – a couple of long calls on consecutive nights.”

“So we just call this person and ask them who they were talking to? Isn’t there a slight possibility that they might lie to protect their friend?”

“Oh, my young apprentice. Must I do everything for you?” Erin ran a reverse lookup on the phone number and grabbed her own phone to make a call.

“Shirley Dowd? This is Detective Erin Harker with the Bayside PD. We’re investigating an armed robbery two nights ago. We have a couple of witnesses who have placed you at the scene. Where were you around 8:30 PM on the night of the 17th?”

“You were talking with your boyfriend on the phone for about two hours that night? Can I get his name – we’ll need to verify your alibi with him.” Erin listened to the woman’s reply and scribbled information on the notepad in front of her.

“OK, Jacob. The perp has been identified as one Charles Wilson. Can you run by his apartment and bring him in for questioning?”

On Sunday, I announced the intention to form a worldwide network of local reporters.  I neglected to mention a few things in the original article.  The first is that reporters are free to decline any opportunity for any reason.  The second is that I will attempt to suggest a few relevant questions whenever I give an assignment.  These are intended to be thought starters – you are not forced to answer these questions.  Drop me a line at kosmo@ObservingCasually.com if you have any questions.

Martin Kelly tried his hand at short story writing with The Bomber Pilot.  I like it – give it a read.

My Rockies swept the division-leading Padres over the weekend and nabbed a win against the Reds on Monday.  They are now just 4 1/2 games back in the NL West, thanks to an 11-4 record over the past 15 games.  The Padres have been free-falling as of late, and the Rockies might find themselves battling the Giants (whom they trail by 3 1/2 games) down the stretch.

Carlos Gonzalez has 10 hits in 19 at bats during the 4 games, boosting his league leading batting average to .340.  He trails NL home run leader Albert  Pujols by 4 homers and RBI leader Joey Votto by just a single RBI.  A hot stretch by CarGo would give him a legitimate shot at becoming the first NL player to win the triple crown since Ducky Medwick in 1937.  That year, Medwick paced the senior circuit with a .374 batting average, 31 homers, and 154 RBI.  If Gonzalez does win the triple crown, many people will point to his huge home/road splits.  However, as has been point out several times in the past, Coors Field boosts a typical player’s OPS by about 120 points.  The 450+ point differential enjoyed by CarGo must be due to some non-physical factors.

Today is the day that CarGo’s teammate Troy Tulowitzki will officially become one of his closest pursuers for the batting title.  Due to injury, Tulo falls just short of the threshold for plate appearances required to qualify for the batting title.  After yesterday’s game, Tulo had 424 plate appearances and the required number of PAs was 424.7.  4 plate appearances in today’s game will make him an official qualifier.

Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez finally notched his 18th win on Monday, in his 6th attempt.  After roaring out of the gates to a 14-1 record by the end of June, Ubaldo has run into a bit of a rough stretch, going 3-5 with a 3.98 ERA in the second half.  It hasn’t all been his fault, though.  he has lost the opportunity to win several games because of offensive struggles or bullpen woes.  In the 5 games prior to Monday, Ubaldo was 0-4 with a very good 3.00 ERA.  On the other hand, the offense has taken him off the hook in some games where he hasn’t been at his best (such as yesterday, when he gave up 4 early runs), so I suppose it all balances out in the end.

In NFL news, the Arizona Cardinals parted ways with quarterback Matt Leinart.  The Cardinals expected Leinart to be a cornerstone for them to build around – but in reality, he simply delayed their success by keeping the ball away from Kurt Warner.  Warner retired after last season, meaning that the Cardinals head into the season without their top two quarterbacks from last season.  Derek Anderson will be the starter and will be backed up by rookie Max Hall.

Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis finally ended his holdout with the Jets.  I don’t begrudge professional athletes their money (are they overpaid?), but I despise holdouts.  A contract should be respected as a legally binding agreement.  So what if you outperform the contract – you agreed to a salary and should stick to it.  If you think you’re going to outperform your contract, just sign a one year deal with a tiny signing bonus in anticipation of cashing in with the next deal.  Interestingly, there’s a posion pill in the contract.  Id Revis holds out in the next few years, the 4 year deal becomes a 7 year deal – with the final 3 years at low salaries.  Sure, you might say that a player could still hold out anyway, but this posion pill gives the team considerably more leverage, as the player cannot negotiate with any other team while they are under contract.

Now that The Political Observers has been built up into a successful part of the site, I am moving on to the next project.  World domination is within our grasp.

As a way to celebrate the launch of the new project, I am giving away copies of  Selling Yourself Short: A Guide to Short Story Writing.  Go ahead and pop it into your cart, and you will be charged $0.00 for it when you check out.  There are no strings attached – other than the fact that it is a limited offer.

OK, so you’re curious what the new project is.  I suppose it’s time to eschew the secrecy …

I would like to cover the big national stories from the viewpoint of those who are near the action.  My goal is the build a network of contacts that will be able to cover all 50 states and a few foreign countries.  I’d like to get multiple contacts in larger states such as California and Texas and will try to utilize people for regional coverage when I don’t have a contact in the specific state.  For example, if I don’t have a contact in New Hampshire, I may look for my Vermont contact to provide an article.

When a big news story (hurricane, crime, etc) hits in your state, you would write about it – giving the local flavor to a national story.  If you’re a niche blogger, this could give you the opportunity to write about a news issue that might not fit within the constraints of your own blog.  (Yes, Evan, I’m referring to you).  If you’re not actively writing for public consumption, this could be an opportunity to stick your toes in the water and see if people enjoy your work.

In addition to people covering “hard” news, I’m also looking for people who attend big events – The Kentucky Derby or the Super Bowl, for example – to give our readers a firsthand account of these events.  I have a special interest in the Olympics and Olympic Trials.

Note that I don’t expect you to be interviewing those affected by the news (unless you happen to personally know some of the affected people), but rather, the goal is to give a local view of the story based on your years of life experience in the area.

The program is still in the launch phase and subject to change, but at this point, I’m thinking of referring to the group of reporters as “Locals”.  Feel free to suggest alternate names (shorter is better).  I will be creating a page that lists all of the reporters, including a link to the site of their choice.  I will be actively pursuing several specific individuals, but many opportunities remain open.

Here are the basics of the opportunity:

• You may use your real name or a pen name.
• I wouldn’t expect to use any particular contact more than 1-2 times per year – if at all.  If there is no big breaking news in your state/area, you won’t be called on.
• When you are contacted, you should be able to reply with an article within 48 hours (before the story fades).  The quicker the response time, the better.
• I’m looking for more of a “man/woman on the scene” sort of angle to the stories.  I’m not looking for a heavy political slant, although reporting on how the public feels about the issue is fine.
• Articles should be in the range of 500-1500 words and should be entirely your own work.  Plagiarism is strictly forbidden and will result in you being permanently removed from the program – zero tolerance.
• The opportunity will be generally unpaid, but I’ll be happy to link to a site that you run (must be family friendly).
• If you hand me a scoop that gets considerable traffic and ad revenue, I will pay you for the article.  The amount will be based on the revenue generated.

If you’re interested, shoot me a line at kosmo@observingcasually.com.  Please include a short sample of your writing.  The writing sample can be on any topic – I just want to ensure a certain level of ability.  If I think you’re a good fit,  I’ll add you to my list, and then you simply wait to be called into action!

If you have family or friends who may be interested, send them a link to this article.  Many thanks.

Nationals Nation (village?) suffered a huge setback when it was announced that top prospect Stephen Strasburg would need to undergo Tommy John surgery.  The surgery, named for the former pitcher whose career it saved, involves having an elbow ligament replaced with a tendon harvested from elsewhere in the body.  There’s a roughly 90% chance of success, and rehabilitation generally takes a year.  This means that Strasburg will likely be aiming for a return on the opening day of the 2012 season.

Interestingly, some players actually throw a bit harder after the surgery (for a few years) than they did previously – so Strasburg’s fastball might have a bit more kick when he returns.  (Some nut job parents have approached doctors requesting that the surgery be performed on their healthy sons, simply to get this benefit).  While this is obviously a setback for Strasburg, I’m confident that he’ll return as strong as ever in time for the 2012 season.  MLBDepthChart.com has put together a Tommy John Tracker that will track the progress of those slated for the operation.

If you’re in a “keeper” fantasy league and Strasburg’s owner drops him, I’d suggest snapping him up for the long haul.  Similarly, if you can make a trade for pennies on the dollar, go for it.

My Rockies have been alternating hot and cold streaks.  They faced off against the Phillies on Thursday.  A win would have allowed them to climb within 4 ½ games of Philadelphia in the wild card race.  The Rockies got out to an early 7-3 lead, but ended up losing the game 12-11, slipping to 6 ½ games out of the wild card race.

At this point, there seems to be little hope of catching the Phillies in the wild card – but I’m not convinced that the Rockies are out of the division race.  We’re 7 ½ games behind the front-running Padres – but the Padres have been in a free-fall recently, losing seven straight games.  The Rockies began a 3 games series against the Padres on Friday night (after this article was written) – and a sweep would pull the Rockies to within 4 ½ games on the division lead.  A Padres sweep would likely close the curtain on the Rockies’ playoff chances.

If you haven’t been paying attention to Carlos Gonzalez, this would be a good time to start.  CarGo launched his 31^st homer (“car bomb”) on Thursday night.  He leads the National League in batting average (.332) and slugging percentage (.610) and is 5^th in homers.  It’s possible that a hot September could push CarGo to the lead in homers and RBI and allow him to be the first NL triple crown winner since Ducky Medwick.

CarGo has dramatic home/road split (.391 with 24 homers at home vs. .275 with 7 homers on the road) but you can’t just point to Coors Field as the source of his numbers.  Overall, Coors has tended to add about 120 OPS points to a player’s numbers – CarGo’s 2010 differential is nearly 500 points.  I hypothesize that a large mental factor comes into player that allow some players to amplify the effects of their home park and other players to consistently underperform expectations (such as Ryan Howard of the Phillies, who has roughly even career home/road splits despite playing in a hitter’s paradise).  Whatever the reason, a player who can be absolutely dominant in half the games provides considerable value to a team.

Gonzalez’s teammate Troy Tulowitzki sports a .319 batting average, but you won’t see him listed among the league leaders.  That’s because an earlier  injury cost him playing time and is causing Tulo to fall just short of the threshold to qualify for the batting title (3.1 plate appearances for each game his team has played).  Tulo is currently 8 plate appearances short, so expect him to pop up on the list soon.

You might wonder what would happen if a player had a much higher batting average than anyone else in the league, but fell just short of the threshold – would he be denied the batting title?  Nope.  In these cases, “empty” at bats are added to a player’s totals to determine if he is the champion.  For example, Tulowitzki has 114 hits in 357 at bats, for a .319 batting average.  If the season ended at this point, we’d add 8 at bats (and no hits) and recalculate – 114 hits in 365 at bats, for a .312 batting average.  If this was the highest batting average in the league, Tulo would be the batting champion.  If someone else had a .313 batting average, he wouldn’t be the champion.  In either case, he would still be credited with his actual .319 batting average.

The Iowa State Cyclones kicked off the football season on Thursday night against Northern Illinois.  The Cyclones looked good at some point and bad in others.  It was a definite must-win game for a team facing the schedule from hell.  We face road games at Iowa, Texas, and Oklahoma – and face Utah in one of our pre-seasons games.  It’s possible that the team would be better than last year’s 7-6 squad, but emerge with a worse record.

And in my own backyard, the University of Iowa (in-state rivals to my alma mater) locked up head football coach Kirk Ferentz through the year 2020.  His base salary starts at $3,675,000 and he get a longevity bonus that starts at $325,000 and increases each year.  I think Ferentz is a great coach, but this makes no sense to me.  These sorts of deals just give a false sense of security to the fans of the team.  The coach can still bolt for a better job at any time.  The only thing that it really does is make it impossible to fire a coach if things head south – because the school is on the hook for the entire value of the contract.  Hopefully Ferentz will still be around in 2020 and this will be an academic issue.

Austin was as ready as he was going to be. He took a deep breath and popped open the door. He exited the lavatory of the airplane and stepped back into the cabin.

The plane had been aloft for ninety minutes. It was cruising effortlessly over flyover country. Half the passengers were trying to get some sleep. The other half were reading books, solving Soduku puzzles, and goofing around on laptops.

Austin walked back to his seat, grabbed the empty duffel bag from his seat, and walked purposefully toward the front of the plane. When he pulled aside the curtain that separated first class from the unwashed masses, people finally noticed.

“Hey, you can’t go up there,” protested a flight attendant as she walked swiftly toward him. The dozing passengers began to wake up.

Austin pulled the pistol from the duffel bag and leveled it at the flight attendant. She stopped in her tracks, and Austin could sense the heightened level of anxiety aboard the plane. Austin could see the puzzled look on her face – wondering how he managed to sneak a gun aboard the plane.

“Come up here,” Austin commanded her. When the woman hesitated for a moment, he nodded toward the gun to remind her of its presence. This reminder was effective, and she quickly joined him at the front of the plane.

“OK,” he shouted. “This is how things are going to work. Tiffany, here –“

“Tessa,” interrupted the flight attendant,

“Tessa,” he continued, glaring at the idiot, “is going to walk through the cabin with my bag. Each of you will simply drop your wallets and jewelry into the bag. When we’re done, I’m going to leave, and nobody gets hurt.”

“Bullshit,” yelled a burly man in the middle of the plane. “You’re not getting anything from me.”

Austin turned the pistol toward him. “I’ll get it from you, dead or alive. Your choice.”

The man’s companion spoke up. “I think he’s serious, Merrill.”

“Yes, Merrill. I’m serious. Dead serious.”

Merrill slunk back in his seat and Austin tossed the bag to Tessa.

“Go,” he growled. “Start at the front.”

Tessa began the process of collecting wallets and valuables from the passengers. Austin kept one eye on her while keeping the other eye on the rest of the plane – watchful for anyone else who wanted to be a hero.

“Hey, necklaces, too,” he said to a woman with a diamond broach around her neck. The woman clutched the broach and gave a wistful look before complying with his request.

When Tessa reached the back of the plane, Austin strode down the aisle and jerked the bag out of her hands. He took a quick glance into the bag and smiled appreciatively at the size of some of the diamond rings. This would be a very nice haul.

“OK,” he said, “the emergency door. Pop it open.”

“We can’t open it in flight,” protested Tessa.

“Yeah, you can,” he replied, pointing the gun at her. A few minutes later, the door was open and Austin prepared to jump.

“Geronimooooooooooo,” he yelled, beginning his freefall. Austin was on cloud nine – in a few short moments, he would be on the ground with his treasure.

A few seconds later, Austin realized that he had forgotten one small little thing. His parachute.

At this very moment, a gunman – alleged to be a man by the name of James Lee – is holding hostages at the headquarters of The Discovery Channel.  Yes, of all the networks in the world to target, he picks The Discovery Channel.  I’ll admit that I don’t watch much of The Discovery Channel (most of my TV watching is sports or forensics shows), but this seems to be a network dedicated to education.  Why on earth would someone pick on them?  Many other networks are much more controversial.

It turns out that we do not have to look very far to find the answer to that.  According to CNN, Mr. Lee has a bit of a history with The Discovery Channel.  He is an environmental protestor who has been very critical of the network on his website.  Lee considers mankind to be “filth” and his manifesto demands that The Discovery Channel “stop encouraging the birth of any more parasitic human infants.”

We all know how this story is going to end.  There is no “good” ending.  The best possible solution – the one that everyone is hoping for – is Lee being dragged away in cuffs and traumatized hostages heading home to spend time with their loved ones.

But surely the publicity Lee gets from this terrorist action will bring publicity to his cause, and make the country think more seriously about the effect mankind has on the environment, right?  Before long, everyone will be making a concerted effort to cut pollution, and the world will be a better place …

Of course not.  Lee’s action’s will actually create a backlash against all environmentalists – both extreme and moderate.  His actions will be counterproductive and will serve to stymie the efforts of those organizations attempting to pursue policy changes in a more civilized manner.  I agree with Lee’s broad viewpoint that it would be good if people were to reduce pollution – but I vehemently oppose his tactics.

You may be able to brandish a gun and force your hostages to do what you want them to, but the gun will not force a civilized society to place any more weight on your words.  In fact, much the opposite.  Not only is the pen mightier than the sword, it is also mightier than the gun.  The strong are those who can convince others that their opinions are current simply by speaking or writing about them.  Only the weak have the need to reinforce rhetoric with violence.  The rule of law trumps the rule of violence.  We have elections in this country, not duels.

As the saying goes, “you are only as strong as your weakest link.”  Those who use violence to push their agenda do more to undermine it than those who simply oppose the rhetoric with words.  We see this sort of pointless violence far too often in the world today.  Instead of inflicting violence on those who oppose us, let us instead beat our swords into plowshares.  Let use make the conference table the first choice of battlefield, rather than the last resort – and let us push the extremist elements to the sidelines.