The SoapBoxers

Every election cycle, we hear about swing states.  The majority of states are already decided long before election day – a heavy majority of voters on one side or the other makes it almost impossible for the opposing candidate to win that state’s electoral votes.  A handful of states can swuing either way, and ultimately determine the presidential election.

This time around, there is a lot of focus on “swing counties” – tightly contested counties within battleground states.  In some cases, the counties have voted for the winners in the vast majority of presidential elections for several decades.  The logic seems to be that focuses a lot of resources on these counties will ensure a candidate’s success in November.

This logic, of course, is utter crap.

Let’s use a sports example (just because I love sports).  Let’s take a person with average golf ability.  Not overly talented, but not an embarrassment, either.  I get this golfer a swing coach and have him practice for hours every day.  At the end of the year, the golfer has improved his score considerably.

Let’s spell out the analogy:

Is everyone still with us?

OK, the golfer used to be average.  That is, representative of a broader sample.  Now that the golfer is considerably better, one of two things can be true:

1. The population as a whole has improved to match our golfer
2. The golfer is no longer representative of the broader population

I’d bet that the second case is far more likely.  Want to bet against me?  I don’t blame you.  Why, then, do political strategists think that dumping lots of money into Swing county is going to make Swing State vote for the candidate?  What you’ve really accomplished is throwing off the natural dynamics of the county.  Where it once was evenly balanced and would ride the prevalent tide the state, it’s now in the middle of an active tug-of-war.  The result is that the “swing county” is going to become a worse predictor of the state as a whole – because it’s being exposed to stimuli that the entire state isn’t.  Basically, the control sample is being turned into the experimental sample.

There’s a lot of danger in placing too much emphasis on a small portion of the state.  While the presidential election is winner-take-all at the state level, that’s not the case at the local level.  There are no bonus points for winning a county.  If you win 49 states + DC by one vote each and get beaten by 5 million votes in one state, you’ll win an electoral landslide.  However, if you win 50 counties by one vote each and lose a single county by 500 votes, you lose the state.  Campaigns need to focus their efforts on the states where they can swing the outcome into their favor – not wasting money one states that are in the bag or ones that have no shot at.  But once a campaign is actively trying to win a state, every single vote counts the same.  Firing up an extra one hundred supporters in your stronghold or getting one hundred to crawl out of the woodwork in your opponent’s stomping ground – the votes count equal. 

NFL officials returned to action last night.  Fans at the game gave then a standing ovation – quite possibly an unprecedented occurrence.  The league came to an agreement with officials just days after a bad call – the latest in a series – cost the Green Bay Packers a win.  The league said they wouldn’t cave to public pressure – but I think they did.  The NFL is a money making machine, and the replacement officials were possibly costing the NFL more (lost revenue due to fans turning off the TV) than the extra money the officials were asking for.

Let’s be careful not to place too much blame on the replacement officials.  If your star quarterback can’t play, and you’re forced to throw a seventh round draft pick into the fire,  the kid isn’t going to throw for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Same situation here – the officials didn’t have the skill level necessary for the job, but they gave it their best effort.

Baseball

In the National League, the Cardinals now have a three game lead in the wild card with six games to go.  They’re in good position, but with the collapses of the Braves and Red Sox last year in their memory banks, they are sure to play hard until they have officially clinched a spot.

In the American League, the White Sox have been fading while the Tigers have been a bit stronger down the stretch.  The Tigers now have a two game lead.

The Rangers are on the brink of a playoff berth, but aren’t quite there yet.  If they lose their final six (three games each against contenders Oakland and Anaheim) they could drop into a tie for the last wild card spot.  It’s getting down the “must win” time for Anaheim and Tampa Bay, down two games in the wild card with six to go.  Personally, I’d like to see Oakland and Anaheim as the two wild cards, but that’s pretty unlikely. 

My Rockies just finished off a sweep of the Chicago Cubs.  The Rockies had been playing poorly in recent weeks and were careening toward their first 100 loss season.  Now the Rockies need just one more win to keep losses in the double digits.

Post-season award predictions:

I’ll make my guesses:

American League

MVP: Mike Trout.  Even if you ignore the fact that he’s 21, Trout is having an absolutely historic season, combining high batting average, power, speed, and defense.  The $200 million question is whether Trout has peaked of whether he can get even better.  Miguel Cabrera has had a great year, but the runs he gives away on defense come into play.

Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout, unanimous selection.  Nobody else is even in the room with Trout.

Cy Young: This may be tight, but I think David Price will edge out Dustin Verlander and Matt Harrison.

National League

MVP: I think Buster Posey will beat out Andrew McCutchen based on the Giants making the playoffs and the Pirates falling out of contention.  Really, Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina should also be in the discussion, because of the value he provides with both glove and bat.

Rookie of the Year: I think the hype carries Bruce Harper to the win, even though Wade Miley is probably more deserving.  Who is leading NL rookies in homers and RBI?  The  answer will probably surprise you.  It’s rookie catcher Wilin Rosario of the Rockies with 27 bombs and 70 ribbies.

Cy Young: Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey notched his 20th win, and I think the narrative around his career will help him win the award.  Watch out for Braves closer Craig Kimbrel if Dickey and Gio Gonzalez of the Nationals split the starting pitcher vote.

 Angels rookie sensation Mike Trout has been a trendy pick for the American League MVP for a few months now.  Recently, however, Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers has picked up steam as he has a shot at winning the triple crown (batting average, home runs, RBI).  Here are how the players stack up in those categories (note: Cabrera has 66 more at bats).

Mike Trout

Miguel Cabrera

Supporters of Cabrera point out the fact that Cabrera is leading Trout in all three categories, while Trout “just” leads in WAR (wins above replacement) – which he leads by a dominating margin.  While certainly WAR is not the perfect statistic, it’s a far better indicator of a player’s value than the triple crown stats are.  Cabrera has 50 more RBI than Trout.  Well, yeah.  He’s batting #3 in the lineup and Trout is batting leadoff.  There will be more players on base for Cabrera to drive in.  There have been 427 runners on base for Cabrera and 284 on base for Trout.  Trout has driven in 50/284 (17.6%) and Cabrera has driven in 91/427 (21.3%).  Still an edge to Cabrera, but much smaller.  RBI is as much a factor of the other players on your team as your own ability.  Throw me into the middle of the Rangers lineup and I could probably drive in 75 runs.

There are a couple of big factors that WAR accounts for and the triple crown numbers don’t:

• Trout has 47 steals (caught 4 times) compared to 4 for Cabrera (1 caught).
• Trout plays a premium defensive position (center field) and plays it well.  Cabrera players a corner infield position (less defensive value) and plays it poorly – so poorly that is defense costs his team wins.  There’s a huge difference between Trout’s defensive value and Cabrera’s.

The triple crown is indeed rare, but so is a 10+ WAR season.  Only two players since 1960 have posted a 10+ WAR season and failed to win the MVP that year.  Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle. Just give the award to Trout.

National League Update:

The Nationals, Braves, Reds, and Giants have all clinched playoff berths.  The Reds and Giants have clinched the division, while the Nationals have a four game lead on the Braves.  The Cardinals have a 4.5 game lead on the Brewers and Dodgers in the wild card – probably a safe lead at this point in the season.

American League Update 

In the American league, zero teams have clinched a playoff spot.  In the Central, the White Sox and Tigers and tied, with the loser almost certainly left out of the playoffs.  The Yankees are 1.5 games up on Baltimore in the East.  In the West, all 8 remaining games for the Rangers are against the A’s (5 games) and Angels (3 games).  The lead the A’s by 4 games and the Angels by six games.  Any of those three teams could end up as the division champion, wild card team, or left completely out of the playoffs.  The Devil Rays are just 3 games back of the final playoff spot.  In total, eight American League teams remain in serious playoff contention in the final week of the season.

New playoff format

The playoffs are very different this year.  There is a second wild card team, and those two teams face off in a one game playoff to advance to the next round. This is commonly being referred to as the “coin flip round”.  The next round will be a five game series.  Instead of a typical 2-2-1 format (with the first two games and final game hosted by the better team) this is a 2-3 format, with the first two games hosted by the worse team.  The #1 seed in each league will actually have to wait until the end of the wild card game to know their first round opponent – and then need to jump on a plane and start the playoffs on the road, against a team that had some time off after winning the coin flip game.  The 2-3 format will only be used this year (because it’s a horrible idea) due to scheduling constraints.  MLB added the coin flip game after the regular season schedule had already been set.

World Baseball Classic

Canada and Spain won their qualifiers and advanced to the main tournament.  Canada romped through their games 11-1, 16-7, and 11-1.  Spain actually lose their second round game against Israel, but then advanced out of the loser’s bracket to face Israel in the finals.  They won that game and advanced.  The qualifiers are not true double elimination tournaments, so Israel was bounced despite only having one loss.  The other two qualifying tournaments are in November.

We’re about six weeks away from election day, and the debates are just around the corner.  While the national polls show the race fairly tight, these polls are completely irrelevant.  A candidate gets the same number of electoral votes if he wins a state by one vote or by ten million.  Large margins may help the national polling numbers, but they don’t actually change the chance that the candidate will win.

For years. my go-to site has been Electoral-Vote.com.  The site operator is very clear about the fact that he’s liberal, but I like the way the data is presented.  The site correctly predicted 48 of the 50 states in 2008, missing only Indiana and Missouri.

At this point, Electoral-Vote.com shows Obama with 328 electoral votes, Romney with 206, and New Hampshire tied.  Romney is expected to lose Massachusetts (where he was governor) convincingly.  That’s not surprising, considering how liberal the state is.  He’s also polling well behind in Michigan, where his father was governor.  While I haven’t researched this in great detail, I’d have to think that winning a presidential election while losing two states where you have deep personal ties would be a historic achievement.  Generally, a candidate can count on his home state to cast their votes for him.

One of my favorite features of the site is the tipping point state chart.  Essentially, this ranks the state from the ones where Obama is doing best (DC and Hawaii) to the states where he is doing worst (Utah and Wyoming).  If you’re a Romney fan, you can read from the bottom up.  The chart lets you see how far down (or up) a candidate must go in order to win.  In order for Romney to win, he’d have to pick up the tied state of New Hampshire, as well as Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, and Ohio – all states where Obama leads.  While it’s true that some of Obama’s leads are within the margin of error, this doesn’t mean that the poll results are wrong – it just means there is a greater likelihood that they are wrong.  Unless there is a systemic error affecting polling in multiple states, a candidate leading by less than the margin or error in large number of states is very likely to win a majority of those states.

How can Romney win?

1. Explain Paul Ryan’s voucher system to senior citizens.  If seniors think that the Republicans are trying to take Medicare away, they could switch their votes or simply not vote at all.  Traditionally, this is a group that leans heavily Republican; it’s hard to imaging a Romney win that doesn’t include winning a majority of the senior vote.
2. Capitalize on Obama gaffes in the debates.  However, it’s important to strike a chord with independent voters, and not simply preach to the choir.  This minds finding cases where the broader population disagrees with an Obama sentiment and hammering away.
3. Getting out the vote.  A great way to overcoming a polling deficit is to simply get more of your party’s voters to the poll. 

Other news:

Senate

Tomorrow is the deadline for Todd Akin to petition a judge to remove his name from the ballot in the Missouri senate race.  If he does this (and the judge agrees) he would have to pay for ballots to be reprinted (possibly hundreds of thousands of dollars), but the Republicans would be able to put a different candidate on the ballot.  Claire McCaskill is comfortable head (although it’s not a blowout), and an Akin pullout would basically start with a clean slate.  I do wonder is McCaskill has been holding back a bit, in order to make Akin think he has a chance (rather than having him drop out and facing a stronger candidate).  Will McCaskill release the hounds on the 26th?

It appears that the Senate will add another independent to its ranks.  Former governor Angus King has a big lead over the Republican candidate.  Since King is expected to caucus with Democrats (although he has not publicly stated this), the Democrats are not supporting their party’s candidate, Cynthia Dill, for fear of splitting the vote between Dill and King and allowing the Republican to win.  Republican PACS have actually run ads in favor of Dill – trying to achieve just such a split.

This story originally ran on October 1, 2011.  It was an enjoyable story to write.  I hope you enjoy reading it. 

April 28, 1888. 1:30 AM.
Gretchen blew out the candle, slipped beneath the quilt, and tried to go to sleep. She was exhausted from the work of tending to the party guests, but sleep would not come.

Instead, the vision kept returning. An infant being born into this household. The infant growing into a boy, and then into a man. The man assuming great power and bringing death upon millions. Her vision was quite clear. The man was pure evil.

Below her small attic room was the master bedroom, where master Alois and mistress Klara were sleeping. The mistress was with child.

Gretchen slept fitfully, unable to accept the message within the vision. The vision would recur many times, leaving horrible nightmares in its wake. Gretchen often awoke drenched in sweat.

May 24, 1888
Gretchen carried the tea to her mistress, remarking that this was a new variety from the market. Klara replied that it was sweeter than the ordinary tea. Gretchen was deeply disturbed by her own actions. She did not want to poison her mistress, but the visions were becoming stronger, the nightmares were becoming worse, and the message was crystal clear – the baby within Klara’s womb was pure evil and must not be allowed to live. She was being asked to intercede.

July 13, 1888
The house was in mourning after the miscarriage. Alois and Klara grieved the loss of their unborn child. Many had attended the funeral at the church in Ranshofen. The relatives had stayed for several days before returning to their own homes, leaving Alois and Klara alone.

During this time, Gretchen was the steady presence that Alois and Klara needed. She cooked, cleaned, and went to the market just as she always had. But she also comforted Klara, slowly bringing her out of the period of darkness until the briefest glimpses of happiness began to appear on occasion once again.

Two days after the funeral, Gretchen announced that they were out of the new variety of tea, and that the shopkeeper had not been able to get any more in stock. That afternoon, she discreetly discarded the arsenic. No longer would she be forced to poison her mistress.

July 30, 1888
The mistress had left at dawn to visit relatives in the Gmunden distict. Gretchen was cleaning the master bedroom when he came to her.

“You have been a great friend to Klara during this dark time. I owe you a great debt, Fräulein Gretchen” he began. “and I am a man who repays his debts.”

Alois looked into her eyes, and Gretchen knew how the debt would be repaid. She was filled with nervous excitement as he moved toward her. This was the moment she had longed for so many times over the years.

Gretchen fell back onto the bed, filled with desire and welcoming the advance of her master. He pulled up the skirt of her dirndl and within a moment was inside her. Gretchen gasped with pleasure as Herr Hitler’s seed was planted inside her.

My team, the Rockies, are not in contention for a playoff spots, so my mind has been wandering a bit.  I got to thinking about the 2013 World Baseball Classic (essentially, the World Cup for baseball).  I went online to check the schedule for the WBC.  To my surprise, the qualifying tournaments have already begun.  Israel picked up a 7-3 win against South Africa yesterday.

Since basball is no longer and Olympic sport, the WBC is now the only major international showcase for baseball.  The rules for player eligibility are fairly loose.  A nation may use a player whose ancestors came from that country, even that was several generations ago.  There is nothing (other than lack of talent) to prevent me from palying for the German team.  The Israeli team will use players of Jewish heritage, regardless of nationality.  Nations can also use players from their territories, which is why a number of players for The Netherlands in 2009 didn’t look very Dutch … they were from places like Curacao.

In 2009 and 2012, sixteen teams participated in the tournament.  The tournament was by invitation only.  This has changed for the 2013 WBC.  The eight teams who won at least one game in 2009 gained automatic bids to the 2013 WBC.  The other four teams were dropped into four qualifying tournaments, along with twelve new teams.  Thus, a total of 28 teams (12 automatic qualifers and 16 teams in the qualifying tournaments) have a chance to play in the WBC.

Here is the breakdown of teams :

Automatic qualifiers:

• Japan (2004 and 2009 champion)
• South Korea (2nd in 2009)
• Venezuela (3rd)
• USA (4th)
• Puerto Rico
• Cuba
• Netherlands
• Mexico
• Dominican Republic
• Italy
• China
• Australia

Qualifier 1 (Sept 19-23, 2012, Florida)

• Israel
• South Africa
• France
• Spain

South African was in the 2009 Classic, but they’ll have a tough row to hoe in order to get back.  The favorite in this group is Israel, which fields a team of players with significant experience in the minor leagues.  Very few of the players are actually from Israel, with most of the players being Jewish players from other nations.  Spain also has a decent team.

Qualifier 2 (Sept 20-24, 2012, Germany)

• Great Britain
• Canada
• Czech Republic
• Germany

Canada was 0-2 in 2009, but this is a good team.  They are ranked #5 in the International Baseball Federation rankings.  It will be an upset if the Canadians don’t win.

Qualifier 3 (Nov 15-17, 2012, Panama)

• Brazil
• Panama
• Nicaragua
• Colombia

Panama is was in the 2009 Classic, but they’ll be pushed by Colombia and Nicaragua.  I’d expect this to be the most competitive of the qualifiers.  I’ll give the nod to Panama, since the games will be played there.

Qualifier 4 (Nov 15-18. Taiwan)

• Thailand
• Phillippines
• New Zealand
• Chinese Tapei (Taiwan)

This is probably the least competitive group.  Chinese Tapei is the only team ranked in the world top 20 and should have a relatively easy path to victory.

Mitt Romney made the news when video from a private fundraiser surfaced this week.  In the video, he is having a candid chat with donors, telling him that 47% of Americans will never vote for him because they are dependent on the government – asserting that these people don’t pay income taxes and feel entitled to health care, food, and housing provided by government handouts.

The 47% number gets bandied about a lot.  You should ask yourself two main questions:

Is it true that 47% of people don’t pay income tax?

I addressed the topic of how many people don’t pay income taxes in greater detail in an earlier article.  A big problem is that people use the terms people, households, and filers interchangeably.  This is a mistake.  I’ll create an example household consist of a mom and dad (married filing jointly, with tax liability), elderly grandparent living with them (minimal taxable income, no tax liability), teenage son with a part time job (minimal taxable income, no tax liability), and a ten year old and four year old.  That’s one household, six people, three tax returns – only one of which has tax liability.  

If you’re using statistics about filers (such as IRS data), it is very inaccurate to substitute the word “people” or “households” for “filers”.  Yet, politicians and the mainstream media often do this, because it’s easier than trying to explain the nuances, even though there is a significant statistical difference.  When you see these quotes, go back to the source they used and verify that they are using the correct term.

Should “the 47%ers” pay taxes?

This is a more complex question.  Who are the 47% who don’t pay taxes, and why don’t they pax taxes?

The stereotype that some people are trying to construct is a family where nobody works, the kids run wild, and the parent use the welfare checks to buy Cheetos and Xbox games.  Certainly this sort of abuse of the system does exist, but let’s look at other examples of people who don’t pay taxes.  All of these fictional scenarios are using a very simplified tax situation of the standard deduction and exemptions, before taking any credits into account.

• The elderly – Abigail is 70 and a retired high school principal.  She works ten hours each week at the local library, earning $10 per hour.  She also spends twenty hours each week volunteering at various organization within her town.  Other than the $5200 per year she earns at the library, the rest of her income consists of a Roth IRA (taxes paid up front), her husband’s life insurance benefits (non-taxable) and Social Security.  Abigail currently doesn’t pay taxes … but she paid her fair share of taxes for decades when she was working full time.
• The young – Becky works with Abigail at the library.  Becky is sixteen years old and works ten hours per week.  Becky helps her parents with some of the bills and puts the rest toward college.  Becky doesn’t currently pay any taxes – but she expects to pay a lot of taxes when she graduates from law school.
• The working poor – Charles and Debra, age 24, have two year old twins.  Prior to the birth of the twins, both of them worked at the local grocery store.  Due to high costs of day care in the community, Charles quit to stay at home with the kids until they are in school.  Debra earns $12.50 per hour and is being groomed for a management position.  While Charles and Debra don’t currently pay taxes, their household income will jump when Charles returns to the workforce and will continue to grow as they move up in the organization.  In a few years, they’ll resume paying income tax and will do so until retirement.
• The unemployed – The factory where Edward worked shut down, resulting in hundreds of people losing their jobs.  The resulting glut of a particular skill set on the market has made it very difficult to find a job, and Edward has been unable to find work.  At this point, it would be difficult for Edward to move.  He has strong tied to the community and he’d take a financial loss if he sold his house at the moment.  Edward is no longer collecting unemployment and is burning through his nest egg and he attempts to find work.  Edward is not currently paying taxes – but he’d absolutely love to return to the ranks of the tax payers.

This is not a comprehensive list. 

As you can see, not everyone in the 47%ers is a “lifer”.  Depending on age and/or circumstance, you may end up paying no taxes some years and paying taxes in others.  Assuming that the 47%ers is a non-changing block of people is a dangerous fallacy for politicians. 

It’s the end of the week.  Time to dump brain fragments into an article.

Should we hate Muslims?

In recent days, there has been more anti-American violence in the Middle East, including the killing of our ambassador to Libya.  Some are are quick to blame the Muslim world, or Islam in general, for the violence.  This is not the case.  It is violent extremists within the muslim community who are perpetrating the violence.  In fact, there were peaceful pro-American protests in Libya following the violence.  Violent extremists – be they Muslim, Christian, or Atheists – are the true enemy of society.

The typical Muslim is much like you or me – working to make sure there is food on the table, enjoying sports (although this may be soccer instead of football), and spending time with family. Your average muslim isn’t staying awake nights plotting ways to kill Americans; she’s staying awake because the baby won’t stay asleep.

If you don’t want to be judged by the words and actions of Pat Robertson and the Westboro “Baptist” Church, then don’t judge the Muslim world by the words and actions of a few.

Bacon Barter

Oscar Mayer is sponsoring a comedian’s trip across the United States.  He’s pulling a trailer with 3000 pounds of bacon.  He must trade the bacon for everything he needs – lodging, food, gas, etc.  I’m not really seeing the challenge.  People will gladly give you stuff in exchange for bacon.  If the guy had nothing but 3000 pounds of spinach … now bartering THAT for everything he needs would be a challenge.

Random Ken Griffey Jr. note

Ken Griffey, Jr. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I’m attempting to become an Up and In .9er and was listening to episode 3 (from 2010) the other day.  They were chatting about Ken Griffey Jr. and how some younger fans don’t realize how good of a player he was in his prime.  I’m 37 and was discussing this with a 29 year old friend.  He had no clue that Griffey was a once-in-a-generation player before injuries took their toll.

How good was Griffey?  So good that he’ll waltz into the Hall of Fame despite a .260 batting average and a relatively modest 192 homers in his last 10 seasons – and a paltry 11 stolen bases.

In his first 12 seasons (starting at age 19) he hit .296 with 438 homers, 197 steals, an MVP award (top 10 six other times), eleven all-star appearances, and ten gold gloves.  438 homers is a good career for most players – and he was still just 30 at the end of that stretch.

Ignore the national polls

You’ll see news reports about about Obama or Romney leading or trailing by a couple of points in the national polls.  I’m never really sure why people care about the national polls.  We don’t have a national presidential election.  We use the Chuck E. Cheese model.  There are 51 smaller elections, and the winner of each of those elections gets a fixed number of points.  Collect 270 points and trade them for the big prize.

Realistically, 3/4 of the states aren’t in play.  Obama isn’t going to win Texas, nor is Romney going to win California.  It really boils down to handful of battleground states where either candidates have a realistic chance to win – and where the voters will be bombarded by ads and candidate visits.  While voters in some states might welcome a visit, most people I know here in Iowa just try to figure out a way to avoid traffic issues caused by visits.  I was delayed last Friday because they shut down the interstate to allow the presidential motorcade through – and I needed to find an alternate route home.

Baseball races

I still don’t like baseball’s extra wild card spots this year (I feel that it cheapens the playoffs), but it is certainly adding some drama to September.  The Phillies, long since given up for dead, have crawled out of their coffin to get back into the race.  The Dodgers and Cardinals are currently’s facing off in a four game series – if they split the series it could give the Phillies an opportunity to make up more ground.

In the American League, the Yankees have been slumping and the Orioles actually have a shot to win the East.  Baltimore is 19 games above .500 (81-62) despite being outscored by 20 runs this year.  The performance of their bullpen is allowing them to win a lot of close games.

Love my Kindle(s)

I picked up a “new” Kindle this week.  A friend is upgrading to a newer Fire – so I bought the old one (very lightly used) off him for substantially less than the new price.  That’s similar to the approach I used when buying my current Kindle Keyboard (I’m the third owner, and apparently the one one who did much reading with it).  The Fire was mostly bought as a tablet (poor man’s iPad) but may also give my wife the opportunity to test out eReading.

I bought another Lawrence Block book the other day.  I have a somewhat staggering 26 books (some are novellas) of his on my Kindle.  What would be really cool would be for Amazon to realize that I’m a fan and give me the option to buy all his other books (to complete my collection – I’m missing more than I have) at a reduced price.  Maybe offer a flat rate to buy all the remaining books as a lot.  Perhaps 40% off the current price?  They wouldn’t get as much for each sale, but they might make it up in volume – enticing people to buy books they might not have otherwise bought.

On a slight tangent, newer authors could offer lifetime subscriptions.  I like a guy’s first couple of books and I drop a couple hundred bucks and get the opportunity to download anything else he publishes in his lifetime.  Could be a good way for some younger authors to get some cash flow.

Amazon has refreshed their Kindle lineup.  You can now spending anywhere from $69 to $499 on a Kindle-branded device.  Obviously, with such a spread in price, there are going to be large differences in the actual devices.  $69 gets you the bare bones 6″ model that is (almost) exclusively a reader, and has no color.  The $599 Kindle Fire 4G LTE in 8.9″, full color, 64 GB of storage, and runs on a 4G LTE network.

Reader or Tablet?

I think Amazon made a smart decision when they branded the higher end models Kindle Fire.  This nicely breaks the models into two families.  The Kindle Fires are tablets which run apps and also allow you to read.  The other Kindle models have very limited functionality beyond reading.  Customers will have different preferences.

Let’s take a look at the existing Kindle product line:

Note: prices shown are for the “with special offers” version which inserts advertisements (and coupons) into the screen savers.  These never appear within the text of the book you are reading, just the screen savers.  Many people like them, but for $20 more you can opt for a model that doesn’t have them.

Kindle readers

Kindle Fire tablets

This story originally ran on November 12, 2010

When coach Brad Green began the season with twenty players on his roster, he was not overly concerned.  He had been football coach at Mountain View High for two decades now, and dealing with the challenges of building a football team from the small student body was old hat.  There were never many bench warmers on the Mountain View teams – players were rotated into the game to allow every player to have a handful of plays off during the course of the game.

When four of his players were suspended from school for a fight on school grounds, coach Green was a bit more concerned.  During their one week suspension, they could not participate in any extra-curricular activities – even football.  Coach Green was looking at a matchup against Central Valley with sixteen players.

The latest blow came on Friday, when a nasty bout of the flu knocked four more players out of commission.  With just twelve players traveling to the game, the coach wondered if it was even necessary to take a bus.

Bad news comes in threes, they say, and the third event struck just before game time.  As the Tigers were practicing, two wide receivers collided on a passing route.  Ken Jarrett and Kevin Matthews were both tough kids, and it was a very bad sign when they didn’t get up after the play.  Green had seen the injuries many times before – Jarrett had a broken leg and Matthews had fractured his arm.  With ten players on the team, the coach was wondering whether to just forfeit the game and take his kids home.

“Are they going to be OK, coach?”

Green looked up into the face of Amy Marx, one of the cheerleaders.

“Afraid not, Amy.  Neither of those guys will be able to play.”

“Geez.  You’ve lost a lot of players this week.  Aren’t you a man short now?”

“Yep, we’re down to ten,” replied Coach Green.  “Could make for some big plays for the opposition.”

“I’ll suit up, coach!”

“Not going to happen.”

“What have you go to lose?  Split me out as a receiver and have me play defensive back.  It has to be better than playing with ten players, right?”

“Are you sure?”

“I have four older brothers.  I can hold my own with the big boys.”

Fifteen minutes later, Amy was lined up at cornerback for the Tigers.   Central Valley picked on her immediately.  The receiver caught the ball, faked her out of her shoes, and raced up the sideline for a touchdown.  The game was not half a minute old and they were down 7-0.

The Central Valley kicker boomed the kickoff out of the end zone for a touchback.  The Tigers huddled up at the twenty yard line.

“OK, first play goes to Amy,” announced quarterback Matt Ford.  “Don’t worry, Marx, we’ll pick you up.”  The QB gave her a slap on the rear to drive home the point – and then flushed with embarrassment when he realized what he had done.

“Sorry, Amy.  Didn’t mean to do that – just reflex.”

“Don’t worry about it,” she replied.  “I’m just one of the guys tonight.”

Amy caught the pass for a split second before a smashing hit from the Central Valley defender separated her from the ball.  She lay on the field for a moment, catching her breath.

“Oh, look.  Barbie’s hurt.  Did you break a nail, honey?”  He laughed and turned back toward his teammates.  Amy immediately jumped up and gave him a hard shove in the back.

The referee’s whistle tweeted to announce a penalty.  “Unsportsmanlike conduct, number eighty four on the offense.  Half the distance to the goal line.  Second down.”

Amy cursed herself for making another dumb play.  Two running plays and a short pass completion made up some of the yardage, but the Tigers faced a 4th down and 8 from their own 22 yard line.  Coach Green decided to give her another shot – having the longtime soccer player line up at punter.  She caught the ball and gave it a powerful kick.  The ball traveled forty eight yards in the air and picked up another ten with a friendly bounce before rolling out of bounds at the Central Valley twenty yard line.

Amy felt a surge of confidence as she lined up on the defensive side of the ball.  Once again, the QB threw the ball in her direction, testing her after the earlier TD.  This time, Amy jumped the route and deflected the ball.  Linebacker Jeff Miller snagged the ball in mid-air and raced into the end zone for the tying score.

By halftime, nearly everyone in the stadium had forgotten that there was a girl playing for Mountain View.  Amy felt the game slow down a bit for her.  On the offensive side of the ball she had made three short catches and had done a serviceable job of blocking for the running game.  On the defensive side of the ball, she was the leading tackler – not because she was the best player, but because Central Valley continued to pick on her.  Amy enjoyed delivering the blows and bringing down the ball carrier to stop a drive.

The game continued to be tight in the second half, and with forty two seconds left in the game, Central Valley was clinging to a 31-28 lead.  The Tigers had the ball, but faced a long field – eighty yards away from pay dirt.  Matt Ford huddled up the troops.

“OK, Barbie Doll’s going deep on this one.”  Amy smiled at the joking reference to the defender’s comment earlier in the game.  She split out wide to the right and waited for the snap.

Amy caught the ball at the thirty five yard line.  The defender stood just a few steps down the field, ready to make the tackle.  She faked right before cutting to the left, leaving the defender in her wake.  She turned on the afterburners and displayed the raw speed that had won her the 1A 100 meter dash title the previous spring.  Nobody touched her until she was in the end zone – and then it was her entire team piling on top of her to celebrate the touchdown.

With gallons of adrenaline pulsing through her veins, Amy sailed the kickoff out of the end zone.  Central Valley still had time on the clock, but the fight had gone out of them.  Four incomplete passes later, and the game was over – Amy Marx had led the Tigers to a most improbable win.