The SoapBoxers

Mike McQueary  (red hair) was the quarterback the last tiem the Nittany Lions won a game.

There has been plenty of chatter about the punishment the NCAA meted out on Penn State.  Did it go too far – or not far enough?  There are strong opinions on both sides.  I won’t get into that discussion in this article (although the topic is likely to be raised in the comments section) but will focus on what the actual penalties were.

$60 million fine – The money will be used to fund programs that helps victims of child sexual abuse.  If there was going to be a financial aspect to the penalty, then this is a logical use of the money.

Four year post-season ban – Penn State will not be allowed to participate in a bowl game for the next four years.  After the NCAA’s announcement, the Big 10 conference announced two related sanctions from the conference.  First, Penn State would not be allowed to participate in the conference title game (the winner of that game gets a berth to a BCS game).  Additionally, Penn State will not receive a share of Big 10 bowl revenue for the next four years.  The conference is taking that money and giving it to charities.

Allowing players to transfer freely – The NCAA will allow any current Penn State player or incoming freshman to transfer to another school and become immediately eligible.  In almost all cases, a student-athlete must sit out a year before becoming eligible at a new school.  This wasn’t announced as a penalty, but realistically it is, as it will likely cause many players to bolt.

Schools that take a Penn State “refugee” are allowed to exceed the scholarship cap (85) in 2012 as long as they reduce 2013 scholarships by the same number.  In other words, if you take 2 Penn State players to boost total scholarships to 87, you can only have 83 scholarships in 2013.  No doubt some top schools will cherry pick the best talent, but this could also be a chance for a mid-level school to make a one year splash.  A team could add some good depth by taking on 10 of Penn State’s players, for example.  They’d be taking the field with 95 scholarship players in 2012, whereas their opponents would have 85.  Sure, they’d be forced to cut back to 75 in 2013, but it might be worth it.  Instead of being 6-6 both years, maybe the team could go 9-3 and get a bowl win this year, and then fall back to 4-8 next year.

Reduction in scholarships – For the 2013-2016 seasons, Penn State will not being to exceed 65 total scholarships (85 is standard), nor can they offer more than 15 new scholarships (25 is standard).  Penn State will probably wish that this penalty started in 2012, as the number of defections may leave them below this number.  My advice to Penn State this year – if you have extra scholarships left due to people leaving the program, reward some of the senior walk-ons with a scholarship.

Vacated wins – All wins between 1998 and 2011 are vacated.  This is a total of 112 wins, 111 of which were Joe Paterno’s wins.  Paterno is no longer the all-time winningest coach.

Penn State is also on five years probation and must work with the NCAA on corrective actives to ensure that this never happens again.

Water for Elephants (Photo credit: Djumbo)

The first time I started reading Water for Elephants, I put it down after about a dozen pages.  It didn’t grab me, so I stopped reading and went to something else.  Then I decided to give it another chance and quickly finished it.

Plot

The story in set in the 1931 and follows Jacob as he runs away from his life after a personal tragedy.  He jumps aboard a train bound for parts unknown.  Had this been a normal train, Jacob may have ridden for several hundred miles, jumped off, and found a job in a factory somewhere.  But this is no normal train – it’s a circus train.  After a rough introduction, Jacob’s training as a veterinarian lands him a job as the circus vet.  Jacob soon falls hard for the beautiful Marlena – who is, of course, married to a sadistically cruel man.

The book pulls back the tent flap and gives an interesting look into the life of the circus workers.   Not just the more glamorous lives of the performers (who are granted two buckets of water per day for washing!)  The working men often didn’t get paid, and at times would just be thrown from the moving train (redlighted).

Characters

The book’s characters are definitely very entertaining.  The love triangle of Jacob, Marlena, and August forms the backbone of the plot.  It’s very easy to cheer for Jacob and Marlena, even though Marlena is cheating on her husband.  (However, he’s jerk, so he had it coming).

The supporting case is also strong.  While the Jacob and Marlena are clear protagonists and August is the main antagonist, several of the other characters flip between roles; at some points helping Jacob and at other points hindering him.  The circus animals also play a large part in the book, notably Rosie the elephant.

Gotcha

One thing I enjoyed about the book was a very clever “gotcha”.  I enjoy being tricked by an author as long as it’s not something completely out of right field (such as a character presented as a human suddenly becoming the pet goldfish in the last scene).  In Water for Elephants, we are tricked, but the author is being completely fair.

Verdict

I loved the book.  Those who are interested in circuses, life in the 1930s, or animals may enjoy the book.  Sara Gruen’s other books also have animals as a central focus.  Although I really enjoyed Water for Elephants, I’m not sure I’ll read her other books, as I don’t generally read animal books.
 

I’ve had my Kindle out quite a bit lately, and I’ve found some pockets of time in which to read.  Here’s a rundown of my past, present, and future reading.

Past

I’ve written about my favorite author, Lawrence Block, on many occassions.  He’s primary a mystery writer, but he also writes a monthly column for Linn’s, a stamp collecting magazine.  Block has collected many of these columns into a Kindle book, Generally Speaking.

I’ve been snapping up pretty much any Block Kindle book that’s avaialble for a good price, and I think I got this for $2.99 (it’s $4.99 now).  I don’t actually collect stamps, but I don’t collect baseball cards, so I assumed there would be enough parallels to make the book interesting.

Generally Speaking is an interesting insight into the hobby itself.  While it does cover topics related to the stamps themselves, there’s also a bit of travel, geography, history, and zoology included, as Block shares his experiences as a collector.  One interesting tidbit is that Block and his wife are world travellers and make an attempt to buy a stamp and have it canceled at the post office of each country they visit.

I learned quite a bit about stamp collecting while reading the book.  More importantly, though, it was a very interesting read.

Present

I bought Water for Elephants several months ago, and it had languished on my digital bookshelf (digital end table?) since then.  I read the first few pages, didn’t particularly like the way the book started and stopped reading it.  Recently, I decided to give it a second chance to plowed through the first few pages to see if I could get to a part of the book I liked.

At this point, I’m about a third of the way through.  Based on what I’ve read, and some foreshadowing in the beginning, I have an idea how this may turn out, but there are a lot of unknowns that have to unfold.  While most of the book occurs 70 years in the past, we occassionally get a present day scene of the narrator, who is now in his 90s.

A very interesting tale so far, and I’ve found myself peeking ahead on my Kindle.

I do wonder, though, why the Waterford Crystal company didn’t introduce a line of Waterford Elephants around the time the movie came out.

Future

Once I finished with Water for Elephants, I’ll likely sit down with an old favorite, Lawrence Block’s Burglars Can’t Be Choosers.  The Burglar books are funny, and I just realized that it’s been a while since I’ve read one.

I’m also being tempted by the siren call of The Hunger Games.  I very rarely re-read books so soon after reading them for the first time, but I may make an exception in this case.

What about you?

Now it’s your turn – what are YOU reading these days?

Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One of the most starting occurrences of the first half of the baseball season has been the fall of Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum.  Licecum won the Cy Young award in 2008 and 2009 and finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting the last two years.  This year, he has been absolutely horrid, with a 3-10 record and 6.42 ERA.

One possibility is for the Giants to option Lincecum to AAA.  (Note to casual fans: “Options” refers to the ability to send a player back to the minor leagues without exposing them to waivers.  A team can typical option a player in three different years).  While some have stated that this could backfire by causing Lincecum to doubt how the team values him and cause him to leave via free agency, I think this is a viable option.  Lincecum is getting crushed in nearly every start.  Surely his self confidence is taking a hit.  Maybe a handful of starts in AAA to work on his delivery and build some confidence by winning a game or two would be a good thing.  Alternately, the Giants could use Lincecum out of the bull pen for a while to get him into a different mindset.  Worrying about losing Lincecum to free agency should be a secondary concern – if Lincecum doesn’t return to form, he won’t have any value as a free agency.

Greinke’s busy weekend

Zach Greinke got ejected on Saturday for spiking the ball in frustration after a close play at first base.  He had thrown just four pitches in the game, but managed to lose the game by allowing one run to score.  Since he hadn’t pitched much on Saturday, he also started Sunday’s game.  He allowed three runs on five hits in three innings of work.  It’s hardly surprising that he didn’t pitch well, since the whole series of events likely disrupted his normal routine.

All Star Game Break

I absolutely love the All Star Game.  The day of the game is one of my favorite days of the year.  I thoroughly enjoy seeing the stars from the various teams take the field to represent their leagues.  I am a fierce fan of my own National League.  I do think that the rosters have gotten too large, however, mostly due to the idea that each team must have at least one representative.  I’d be in favor of abolishing the idea.  I’d prefer to see a standard 25 man roster composed of the best players in the game.

MLB also needs to look at the issue of fan balloting.  I like having fans vote, but the currently system is open to abuse.  You can vote 25 times per email address.  I personally have an unlimited number of addresses (by virtue of a catch-all email account) and could conceivably cast millions of votes.  I’m not sure I’d go as far as limiting it to one vote per person, but someone needs to be done.

The downside to the All Star Game, of course, is that there’s a three days break during which no “normal” games are played.

Some brief thoughts at the break.

• After many felt that he was finished, David Ortiz has resurrected his careers.  Kudos to Papi for fighting through the very tough times.
• The Orioles are 45-40, but have a run differential of -36, while Cleveland is 33-41 with a -29 run differential.  If those run differentials continue to be in the red, expect those teams to fall out of contention.
• The Pirates not only are in first place in their division, but have the second best record in the National League at 48-37.  If the Pirates can go just 34-43 in the second half, they would have their first winning record since 1992.  I was still in high school in 1992.
• Last year, Reds  minor league shortstop Billy Hamilton had 103 stolen bases for low A Dayton.  This year, he already has 104 for high A Bakersfield and is on pace for around 150.  Hamilton stills needs a lot of work defensively, but if he can eventually reach the Major Leagues, he could be a lot of fun to watch.

Other sports

Ray Allen signed as a free agent with the Miami Heat.  When the Boston Celtics failed to agree to his request for $9 million per year (they offered 6), he signed with the Heat for $3 million.  This is a clear case of Allen chasing another title, and it makes a lot of sense.  The Heat beat the Celtics in the playoffs in spite of Allen; adding Allen to the Heat should put them heads and shoulders above the rest of the league.

Jeremy Lin signed an offer sheet with the Rockets that would pay him about $28 million over 4 years (the fourth year is a club option; $19.2 million would be paid ove the first three years).  The Knicks can still retain him by matching the terms of the offer sheet.  It wasn’t so long ago that nobody wanted Lin, and he was forced to crash on his brother’s couch.

NASCAR driver A.J. Allmendinger has been suspended following a positive drug test.  His team was made aware of the suspension 90 minutes before Saturday night’s race and had to rush in a replacement driver, who arrived 8 minutes before he had to get into the car.  This could be the end of the line for the drive I nicknamed Nut Bell (almond is a nut, dinger is a bell).

First brand new short story in a while – enjoy!

Damon Brinker sighed with relief as the bus bounced its way into the station. The driving slammed on the brakes and sent passengers flying into the seat in from of them. That’s par for the course, he thought. A fifteen hundred mile journey on a run-down bus with barely functional air conditioning and a driver with erratic skills and a surly attitude to boot.

Damon waited for the crush of people to exit the bus before stepping down to the street. He grabbed his bags and headed into the dimly lit terminal.

He got his first good news of the day when he saw a man holding up sign with his name on it. Damon quickened his pace, happy to be leaving the station.

“Sorry to keep you waiting, I’m Damon.” Damon said extending his hand.

“Not your fault.” the man said with a smile, grasping Damon’s hand. “The bus is never on time.”

Twenty minutes later the pickup truck pulled into a driveway. The house was well-maintained, but of a modest size. Beyond the house, Damon could make out the majestic peaks in the fading light. He smiled at the thought of two weeks of hiking in the mountains.

“Beautiful, aren’t they?” The voice came from a woman who had materialized while Damon had been gazing at the mountains. He noticed the pickup backing out of the driveway.

Tami showed him to his room, which had a window with a view of the mountains. Once again, Damon was captivated by the natural beauty. After a few minutes of mountain gazing, he sat down on the bed and pulled out his cell phone. No signal.

As he was unpacking, there was a knock on the door.

“I got a bath ready for you. Figured you’d want one after the bus ride.”

Yes, a bath was exactly what Damon wanted. The unpacking could wait. He knew that he was saving a lot of money by arranging for a host family via the internet, but the level of hospitality could be hit and miss. It looked like his roll of the dice had turned out well.

He opened the door and walked toward the bathroom. A towel and robe were laid out, and a Tami had drawn a warm bubble bath. He quickly shed his clothes and slid down into the tub. The warm, sudsy water washed away the dirty feeling of too much time on a crowded bus. By the time Damon stepped out of water, his skin was starting to get a bit wrinkled. He dried off, put on the robe, and cinched the belt.

When he re-entered his room, he saw his hostess lying on the bed, wearing nothing but a revealing nightie. For a moment, he thought that he had wandered into the wrong room by mistake.

And then he knew he hadn’t.

“Troy’s at his weekly poker tournament. He won’t be back for hours. We have plenty of time to play.”

Damon was tempted, but knew that this was a mistake. As he stood motionless, Tami slid out of the bed and approached him. She unfastened the robe and let it fall to the floor. She stood on her tip toes to give Damon a kiss, and the decision was made. This one night, Damon was choosing to ignore his moral compass.

Hours later, Tami kissed him one last time and disappeared down the hall. Thirty seconds later, Damon succumbed to pleasure-induced exhaustion and fell asleep.

The next morning, Damon, Tami, and Troy made small talk as Tami prepared breakfast. Troy chattered on about his luck at cards, unaware that he had been cuckolded. Damon and Tami shared secret glances, and Damon looked forward to next week, when Troy would once again leave the house for his weekly poker game.

Tami bent a bit lower than necessary as she set a cup of coffee in front of him. He enjoyed the viewed and wondered if Troy had other nighttime engagements. He smiled and took a gulp of coffee.

Damon suddenly felt hands closing around his throat as he struggled to breathe. He was being choked by Troy, who was perhaps not unaware of last night’s events. He glanced hopefully toward Tami and noticed that she had grabbed a pistol – but it was pointed right at him.

Troy threw a final shovelful of dirt over the grave and wiped his brow with a handkerchief. The new victim was arriving tonight. This was such an enjoyable game.
 

Note: While attending a writer’s workshop in April, one of the exercises was to write about a horse.  No further direction was given – we could write about any horse.  Here’s the very short story I hammered out in the 15 minutes we were given to complete the exercise.

The rider dismounted and went to attend to errands in the marketplace.  The horse remained behind, as always.  She never ventured into the retail areas; instead always remaining in the corral with the other mounts.

She was not a young mare, and her once glossy red coat was now a bit of a dull pink.  Her owner seemed oblivious to the toll that time had taken on her.  Though her journeys were short, they were frequent, and the mare was growing progressively weaker with each ride.  She glanced across the corral at a stallion whould would have greatly excited her in days past, but there was no hint of the burning sexual fire – not even an ember.  She now preferred quiet solitidude to frolics with stallions.  She noticed that the stallion took no interest in her, either.  This constant fatigue were her natural state these days.

Her heart sank at the sound of approaching footsteps.  The rider mounted, the music began, and the carousel jerked to life, lunching the mare into another pointless journey that would end in the same spot it began.

I’ve always been a huge baseball fan.  In recent years, however, I’ve begun focusing even more on the sports, while losing some focus on the other sports.  I haven’t followed the NBA much since Magic retired, and my interest in the NFL has waned in recent years.  I have baseball thoughts 365 days a year.  There has never been a better time to follow the sport, as technology lets fans get up to the minute information.

Here are some tools I used to follow baseball.

MLB Extra Innings

I subscribe to MLB Extra Innings on Direct TV.  I actually think the price point is pretty decent.  You pay roughly $200.  Compare this to the $300+ that the NFL package costs – for 1/10 the games – and Extra Innings seems like a pretty good deal.  Next year, I’ll drive the price down a bit more by getting MLB.TV instead of Extra Innings.  For about $50 less, I’ll watch the games streaming through my net-enable Blu-Ray player (upstairs) or Roku (downstairs).  A benefit is that I’ll also be able to stream audio on my Palm Pre.

I like MLB Extra Innings, but it’s not without flaws. 

First and foremost is MLB’s archaic blackout policy.  Baseball teams have territorial rights, and if you live in that team’s territory, the games cannot be viewed through MLB Extra Innings (and can only be viewed on a delayed basis on MLB.TV).  The basic idea is that the local cable affiliate has rights to the games, and that you can view the games there.    That’s OK if you’re in Boston and only the Red Sox are blacked out.  But if you’re in Iowa, the Cubs, White Sox, Cardinals, Brewers, and Twins are all blacked out (until recently, the Royals were also blacked out).  The Cubs are often available on local channels, the White Sox are sometimes available, the Cardinals are rarely available, and the Brewers and Twins are never available.  It’s frustrating to have a Rockies game blacked out because they happen to be playing the Brewers.  Even though the Brewers claim Iowa as part of its home territory, there are absolutely no Brewers fans in Iowa.  MLB need to re-draw territorial rights boundaries soon.  They are leaving a lot of money on the table.  Just in Iowa, there are tens of thousands of Cardinals fans who are unable to watch any of their team’s games.  It’s likely that a significant number of these people would pay $200 for Extra Innings if they could watch Cardinals games.  I fail to see the downside to this.

It’s great that you can choose to watch either the home or road team’s broadcast of the game – unlike the NFL, where you get stuck with only one option.  I really can’t figure out why DirectTV doesn’t simply dedicate one channel for each team.  Foe example, make channel 742 be the Rockies channel.  On any given day during the season, I could just flip to channel 742 for the Rockies game.  Having to scroll through the list of available games to find the one I want is mildly annoying.

Finally, Extra Innings gives you only the game – none of the pre and post game coverage and interviews.  Seriously, throw the viewers and bone and include these features.

Palm Pre

A while ago, I purchased a used (and slightly battered) Palm Pre for a good price, and have used it as a portable WiFi device (the phone portion is not activated).  This has been a great tool for keeping up to date on scores and stats.  I use a premium app (meaning that it cost a whopping $1.99) called Baseball Live.  The home screen of the app lists all the games.  You can easily click to get to a detailed information about the game.  Based on your settings, you’ll get either the MLB.com or ESPN widget for the game.  You could get the same end result by going directly to MLB.com or ESPN, but the Baseball Live app provides a more convenient interface.

Podcasts

I’ve only recently begun seeking out podcasts.  I complain (a lot) about the lack of baseball coverage on sports talk radio.  There are several baseball podcasts that can alleviate this.  By far the best is the Up and In podcast from baseball think tank Baseball Prospectus.  Baseball Prospectus is a serious organization, published several books every year.  Up and In throws this aside and is a very informal (and often R-rated) chat between two colleagues (and occasional guests).  Baseball Prospectus managing partner Kevin Goldstein hosts the show with Jason Parks.  They cover a variety of topics in both Major League Baseball and Minor League Baseball.  The show generally rambles on for about two hours (with frequent detours to random non-baseball topics).  I’ve enjoyed Up and In so much that I decided to purchase a membership to BaseballProspectus.com – mostly to get the minor league insights from Goldstein.

I also listen to the ESPN Baseball Today and Fangraphs podcast.

Is Jeter reaching the end of the road?

 Jeter’s Slump

Derek Jeter got off to a fast start this year, hitting .389 with 5 homers and 13 RBI in April.  His current average is still above .300, but a steep downward trend – a .293 batting average in May and a .238 in June (through Wednesday) – should have Yankees fans a bit concerned.  This is not a young player we’re talking about – Jeter turned 38 earlier in the week.  Even worse, he’s a middle infielder – and middle infielders rarely reach age 40 with their offensive skillset intact.  Don’t be surprised if Jeter’s offensive skills start to slip away and he turns into a .240 slap hitter.

Albert’s Surge

Albert Pujols

On the other side of the coin we have Albert Pujols.  After signing a monster deal with Anaheim in the off-season, Pujols had a horrific start to the season – unable to get his average to .200 and displaying no power at all.  After hitting .217 with no homers in April, the power returned in May when Albert hit 8 homers to go along with a .263 average.  In June, the batting average has returned, with Pujols hitting .333 with 4 homers.  When (not if) he’s able to consolidate those April and May statistics, he’s going to once again be one of the most feared hitters in the game.  even with the horrible start to the year, Pujols is on pace to hit 25 homers and drive in nearly 100 runs.  A reasonably good second half could push his homer total above 30, and I’d bet that his batting average gets close to .300 by the end of the year. 

Mike Trout

Mike Trout

Pujols’s teammate in Anaheim, rookie Mike Trout, is having a tremendous season.  While Bryce Harper of the Nationals has been a highly touted player since high school, Trout slipped to the 25th overall pick in the 2009 draft, partly because of New Jersey high school players having a poor track record.  By the end of the 2010 season, he had emerged as one of the top prospects in the game.  Trout put up pedestrian numbers during a brief call-up in 2011, as is common with rookies.

This year, however, Trout has been tearing it up.  he was called up on April 28th, and has been one of the best players in baseball since his call-up – and he’s just 20 years old.  He’s leading the American league in batting average and stolen bases and showing good power for his age, with 8 homers in his first 54 games.  He’s also a terrific defender in the outfield.  Some worry that Trout won’t be able to maintain his elite speed, given his body type.  However, it’s possible that he could slim down a bit, or that he’ll simply be the exception.  In any cases, Trout is still several years away from reaching his physical peak – it should be fun to watch him improve and become an even better player.  If you’re looking for an example of Trout improving, look at his strikeout rates – 28 strikeouts in 108 at bats in May and just 18 strikeouts in 104 at bats in June.

Teams to watch

Do you know this man’s name?

It’s been an interesting start to the season, with lots of good storylines.  Here are some teams to watch in the second half.

Phillies – The Phillies are in last place in their division.  Why are we watching them?  Well, although they are nine games behind the Nationals, they are only 5 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot.  With Chase Utley back in the lineup, Ryan Howard beginning his rehab stint, and Roy Halladay not too far away, the Phillies could very easily find a way into the playoffs.

Pirates – I was still in high school the last time Pittsburgh had a winning record.  They teased their fans last year before falling apart late in the year.  They are in contention once again this year.  Although their negative run differential suggest that they aren’t as good as their record suggests, I’d love to see them emerge with a division title.

Who do I predict as the playoff teams?  In the American League, the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, and Rangers.  In the National League, the Nationals, Phillies, Cardinals, Pirates, and Giants.

Lawrence Block (left) & Robert Silverberg

Regular readers know that my favorite author is Lawrence Block.  Block has been writing since the 1950s, and continues to write new work.  About a decade ago, a friend gave me Burglars Can’t be Choosers, and I was hooked.  In pretty quick succession, I read all of the burglar books and also started working my way through Block’s Matt Scudder books.

There are ten Burglar books and seventeen Scudder novels (plus a short story anthology).  I’ve put more than a few dollars in Block’s pocket over the years.  I’ve also read some of his books on writing, and of course his short story omnibus Enough Rope.

Block also has three series of novels based on the following characters:

• Evan Tanner – Tanner has the sleep center in his brain destroyed as the result of a war injury, and is now incapable of sleep.  He uses the extra eight hours of each day to learn about a myriad of topics, and manages to get himself involved in a lot of international escapades.
• Keller – A professional hit man who actually had a conscience.
• Chip Harrison – A private detective who works a boss who is infatuated with Nero Wolfe.

On the surface, I should love two of these characters.  The destroyed sleep center aspect of Tanner is cool, as well as his interesting take on politics.  Keller is a hit man who spends his spare time (and money) collecting stamps, of all things.  I’ve never read Nero Wolfe, so the Chip Harrison novels wouldn’t be something that would necessarily be my cup of tea.

So I bought a Tanner and Keller book.  I hated them and wasn’t able to finish them.  I was disappointed that I was unable to appreciate books written by my favorite author, but fiction is very much a matter of taste, and I simply didn’t like them.

Fast forward five or six years.  I was in the public library looking for some audio books to read.  I saw a Keller book.  On a whim, I decided to give it a shot.  I was surprised to discover that I enjoyed the book immensely.  I read the other Keller books and liked all of them.  I liked them so much that I pre-ordered the upcoming Keller book, Hit Me.  The book doesn’t come out until February, but I’ve had my pre-order in for a couple of months.

I also rediscovered Tanner.  My rediscovery in this case was two-forked.  It turns out that Tanner was a favorite character of a good friend’s dad.  The friend’s dad served his country in Vietnam, raised his son alone after his wife deserted them, and fought a courageous battle against cancer – an outstanding role model for his son and the community.  After he passed away, I often thought of reading some Tanner books, just to see if I could see the same things he saw in them.  A bit later, I read Lawrence Block’s Afterthoughts, a collection of the forewords and afterwords from his books.  Block’s thoughts about the Tanner books were the clincher – I needed to give them a second chance.  I found out that I liked the Tanner books as well.

I have yet to read the Chip Harrison books … but I’m sure that in time I will.

If you have every given up on an author, or on a book, I urge you to give it a second chance a bit later.  The years won’t change the text in the book, but they will change you, and you may appreciate the book more.
 

Longtime readers may remember an article about strikeouts a while back.  At that time, I was looking at the whiffs of Mark Reynolds and trying to calculate the impact they had on his team.

Adam Dunn

This time, I went a step further.  I took a close look at Adam Dunn of the White Sox.  Dunn has 109 strikeouts this year.  How much better off would the White Sox be if Dunn had made “productive outs” – that is, outs that advance a runner – instead of striking out?

It’s important to note that I’m not trading any of Dunn’s strikeouts for HITS.  There’s no doubt that it would be better for Dunn to turn some of those Ks into single and hit .265 instead of .225.  Hits are clearly better than outs.  The question is whether strikeouts are inherently worse than ground ball outs and fly outs.  Is an Adam Dunn who hits .225 with 200 strikeouts less productive than an Adam Dunn who hits .225 with 80 strikeouts?

I combed through the play by play data for all of Dunn’s games this year to find the answer.  This is mind numbing work, and it’s possible an error or two crept in, but I think my answer is pretty close.  There are two basic components:

1. Does the opportunity for a productive out exist?  The opportunity only exists when there are baserunners with fewer than two outs.  If there are no baserunners, it’s impossible to advance any runners.  If there are two outs, any type of out will end the inning.
2. Would a productive out have made a difference in the inning?  If there’s a runner on first, Dunn fails to move him along, and the next guy hits a home run, a productive out would not have made a difference – the runner scored in spite of Dunn’s strikeout.  On the other side of the coin, if Dunn fails to move a runner from first to second and the next batter struck out the end the inning, a productive out wouldn’t have made a difference either.  The runner would have simply been stranded on second instead of first.

In a nutshell,  we’re looking for cases where a productive out would have made a difference in whether or not the team scored a run that inning. 

Was a productive out possible?

In 87 of the 109 cases, Dunn was not in a situation to make a productive out. 

• 43 of the strikeouts were the final out of the inning
• 72 of the strikeouts came with the bases empty
• 28 of the strikeouts came with two outs and the bases empty.  This overlap explains why 43 + 72 adds up to more than 87.

This leaves 22 situations where a productive out was possible.

Would a productive out have made a difference?

• In 12 of the 22 remaining cases, all of the baserunners ended up scoring anyway.
• In 6 cases one or more runners were stranded, but moving the runner along with a productive out would not have changed the outcome.  For example, in two cases, the very next batter made an out to end the inning.

This leaves four cases.

April 23rd, season strikeout #26.  Dunn came up with runners on second and third and one out.  After Dunn’s strikeout, Konerko lined out, Pierzynski drove home one of the runs, and Rios ended the inning with a foul pop.  Had Dunn made a productive out, he might have driven home the runner on third and allowed the runner on second to advance to third and later score.  The White Sox won the game 4-0, so no harm done.

May 16th, season strikeout #57.   Dunn came up with a runner on first and nobody out.  After his at bat, the runner advance to third on a single and a fly ball before being stranded.  Had Dunn advanced the runner to second, he may have scored.  White Sox lost this game 7-2, so this wouldn’t have changed the outcome. 

June 9, season strikeout #94.  Dunn came up with one out and runners on first and second.  After his strikeout, the runners advanced to second and third on an infield single before a ground ball to shortstop ended the inning.  Had Dunn advanced the runners, the lead runner probably would have scored on the infield single.  White Sox won the game 10-1, so this didn’t cost them.

June 17, season strikeout #102.  Dunn came up with one out and a runner on first.  After his strikeout, the runner advanced to third before the hitter was thrown out trying to reach second.  Had Dunn advanced the runner, he likely would have scored on the subsequent hit.  This occurred in a 2-1 extra inning loss, so this could have made the difference in the game.

Findings

Over the course of 69 games and 109 strikeouts, I have found exactly one situation in which a productive out could have actually made the difference in a game.  In my opinion, that’s not a very good reason to criticize Dunn for his high strikeout totals.  His .225 batting average really isn’t any worse than any other .225 batting average.  Trying to force him to alter his swing to cut down on his strikeouts probably has more downside risk (fewer homers) than upside opportunity.

Some of you may argue that an inning may have played out significantly differently if a productive out had been made.  Having a runner at second would have caused the pitcher to alter his strategy, etc.  While that’s true, it’s hard to speculate what may have occurred, so I’ve assumed that the subsequent batters would have achieved the same result.  I could also argue that having more ground balls would also mean more double plays, which could have killed some innings.

And finally … this is a relatively small sample size, and is specific to Adam Dunn.  A larger sample size or a different player may get you somewhat different results.  However, my opinion is that a .225 batting average is a .225 batting average – there’s no reason to separate the guys who achieve the .225 by striking out a lot from the guys who achieve it by hitting weak ground balls to shortstop.