The SoapBoxers

Stock Market Contest, end of June

July 5, 2009

kosmo - See all 763 of my articles

OK, I said I wasn’t going to post any article this weekend, but here is a short one.

Back On April 15, we launched a Stock Market contest (click link to see insights from the participants) in which a team of Goliaths (personal finance bloggers) were matched up against a team of Davids (people who were not personal finance bloggers). At the end of May, the Dow stood at 8500.33 and had gained average 12.34 points during the course of the contest, making the Davids the favorites.

The market tried to tread water in June, however, closing the month down 53.33 points at 8447.00.  Once again, we’ll project the Dow’s year end close, assuming a linear trend.

At the end of the day on April 14th (the 104th day of the year), the Dow was at 7920.18.

At the end of the day on June 30 (the 181st day of the day), the Dow was at 8500.33

This is a gain of 526.82, or 6.84 points per day. If we assume that the market will contain to gain at exactly the same rate throughout the rest of the year (yes, a ridiculous assumption), the Dow will be at 9185.58 at the end of the year.

How do our contestants stack up?

Team	Player	Player’s Guess	Difference from projection
N/A	Projected year end Dow	9185.58	0
No Team	Kosmo @ The Soap Boxers	8999	186.58
David	Peter Rabbit @ The Soap Boxers	9500	314.42
David	Phil Ossifer @ The Soap Boxers	8500	685.58
Goliath	Trevor @ Financial Nut	8500	685.58
David	Black Hole	8492.48	693.10
Goliath	Heidi @ Banker Girl	8400	785.58
Goliath	Lazy @ Lazy Man and Money	8232	953.58

I also invited visitors to play along at home. Let’s see how they are doing.

Player	Player’s Guess	Difference from projection
Hilary	9500	314.42
Karchy	9777	591.42
Jeff	7800	1385.58

At this point, team David is still in the lead, but the fact that the Dow was down for the month of June has allowed team Goliath to get much closer.  Check back next month for the next update.

Assorted
Contests, Stock market contest