The SoapBoxers

One of the oldest classic literary works is Oedipus. This three part play has been studies by academics and high school students for generations. As with last week’s article, I am taking inspiration from my son’s classics course assignment. This week, his class is finishing up reading and analyzing Oedipus. They are to choose a character and find an equivalent in another work. Beyond that equivalence, they are to create imagery of their own to show that they actually understand and can defend the characteristics they have chosen to analyze.

My son chose Oedipus as his character and the biblical Job as the equivalent. Neither character had personally done anything that would lead to punishment, yet both were punished by the gods. In the case of Oedipus, it was jealousy between gods and the crimes of his ancestors, both conditions that he was unaware of, that caused his suffering. In the case of Job, it is a rather odd bet between God and Lucifer, again without any knowledge or provocation from the victim. Both characters whine and complain about their fate, but neither actually blames the gods or God. They are both led through the trials and tribulations without any choices except the choice to honor the gods or not.

The imagery that my son chose was that of sheep. Sheep follow their herder both out of habit and necessity. The habit is the association with the herder from birth and not knowing any other life. The necessity is the herder leading the sheep to food, protecting them from predators and searching for them when they are lost or separated from the flock. In fact, domesticated sheep would not survive without the direct and constant intervention of the herders.

Many classic Greeks and modern religious people believe that the direct and constant shepherding is essential to their lives. Others live their lives either hoping that such attention is not needed or convinced that it is not provided. Regardless of your individual belief system, the story in Oedipus allows a certain amount of soul searching, as does the story of Job. If the shepherd purposely allows harm even if it is not fatal, is the shepherd actually doing his job? One could say that the Judeo-Christian God is better since Job gets some of what he lost back in the end, but in both cases the suffering does not help the victim at all. In the case of the Oedipus, the moral is “don’t upset the gods” and “the gods will punish you even if you have no clue why”. In the Job story, the moral seems to be “bad things happen, but if you believe in God, it will not be all bad”.

Building on the question from last week of what makes a classic a classic, consider the implications of a moral or teaching within a story. Most religious texts, fables and myths include morals and teaching. Any story has to have a point and many of the classics depend on moral imperatives to make that point.

Media bias has a long, sordid history.

I’ll never forget the famous black and white video of South Vietnamese Nguyen Ngoc Loan shooting a Vietcong militiaman. It was a silent movie but when NBC acquired it they added the sound of a gunshot for drama. Does anyone remember that that Vietcong murdered Loan’s whole family? Hmmm.

I’ll never forget CNN’s report on the AK47 years ago. The AK47 uses the 7.62×39 round. The weight and velocity of the bullet is very similar to the old .30-30. If you fire one 124 grain bullet at about 2,000 feet per second it has a fixed amount of energy (mass x velocity = energy). If you fire a second 124 grain at about 2,000 feet per second it will have the same energy. CNN however denied the laws of physics. Their report stated that the fully automatic version of the AK47 was more effective with more penetration. That is a lie.

I’ll never forget CNN’s report just the other year showing a Tea Party protestor who was legally caring a rifle in public. The image was zoomed in on the nicely dressed man to show clearly that the rifle was an AR15 variant. They reported that this person is a white supremacy supporter. When the same picture was shown not zoomed in, it was actually and nicely dressed black man and Tea Party supporter.

I’ll never forget CBS’s Dan Rather and the Killian documents. Who could forget that one? I can see why liberals want to pretend it never happened. Dan was certain President Bush, while serving in the Texas Air National Guard in the ‘60s, disobeyed orders but was given special treatment. The forgery was quickly identified by bloggers and experts. Dan and others lost their job and credibility.

There is a serious pattern of abuse by media. It is one thing to give commentary, like my articles, and another to present lies and half truths as facts. The Press has been described as the fourth pillar of the government which keeps the other three in check. The description has never been accurate but don’t tell that to Chris Matthews. The Media Research Center’s study shows that Governor Romney gets 13 times more coverage for his gaffes compared to President Obama. Aikin was nearly crucified for his legitimate rape comment but it’s not any different from Whoopi Goldberg’s comment of ‘it wasn’t rape rape’. I know Whoopi isn’t running for office but it reveals the double standard that exists. Aikin should have received the same grace as Whoopi.

Don’t you love it when the national news does a piece on Romney which shows his portrait for a second then plays 30sec of video of Obama! Familiarity earns trust and loyalty and they know it. My local news would report on the coming Obama events but only report on Romney after his events were over. Apparently they were called on it and for at least one day at each newscast they stated they will disclose Romney events also.

A couple of years ago on a local AM radio station Rush Limbaugh show would cut out at the most unusual times. The technical difficulty never happened during commercials or the less spectacular moments of the Rush Limbaugh show (every moment is spectacular but some are more so) always when Rush was about to make his point. I ran into an old friend after that and we started talking about it. He had made some phone calls that day of the technical difficulties. He was convinced the operator at the radio station did it intentionally. After my friend called and confronted them it stopped.

When was the last time you read legislation? I read the first 100 pages of Obamacare and wondered if the Democrats were channeling Karl Marx. Have you ever read the transcript of an Obama speech? Have you read the Federalist Papers? Do not trust CNN or CBS to deliver news. I don’t even give Foxnews enough credence to take them for their word. Always look for the full video, read the transcripts, read the legislation, and get the first hand information. Be a skeptic of everything. Shape your perspective and understanding of the world we live in with facts and not commentary. Don’t let anyone appeal to your emotions but be stoic, wise, and vote Republican this November. Trust me.

Every election cycle, we hear about swing states.  The majority of states are already decided long before election day – a heavy majority of voters on one side or the other makes it almost impossible for the opposing candidate to win that state’s electoral votes.  A handful of states can swuing either way, and ultimately determine the presidential election.

This time around, there is a lot of focus on “swing counties” – tightly contested counties within battleground states.  In some cases, the counties have voted for the winners in the vast majority of presidential elections for several decades.  The logic seems to be that focuses a lot of resources on these counties will ensure a candidate’s success in November.

This logic, of course, is utter crap.

Let’s use a sports example (just because I love sports).  Let’s take a person with average golf ability.  Not overly talented, but not an embarrassment, either.  I get this golfer a swing coach and have him practice for hours every day.  At the end of the year, the golfer has improved his score considerably.

Let’s spell out the analogy:

Is everyone still with us?

OK, the golfer used to be average.  That is, representative of a broader sample.  Now that the golfer is considerably better, one of two things can be true:

1. The population as a whole has improved to match our golfer
2. The golfer is no longer representative of the broader population

I’d bet that the second case is far more likely.  Want to bet against me?  I don’t blame you.  Why, then, do political strategists think that dumping lots of money into Swing county is going to make Swing State vote for the candidate?  What you’ve really accomplished is throwing off the natural dynamics of the county.  Where it once was evenly balanced and would ride the prevalent tide the state, it’s now in the middle of an active tug-of-war.  The result is that the “swing county” is going to become a worse predictor of the state as a whole – because it’s being exposed to stimuli that the entire state isn’t.  Basically, the control sample is being turned into the experimental sample.

There’s a lot of danger in placing too much emphasis on a small portion of the state.  While the presidential election is winner-take-all at the state level, that’s not the case at the local level.  There are no bonus points for winning a county.  If you win 49 states + DC by one vote each and get beaten by 5 million votes in one state, you’ll win an electoral landslide.  However, if you win 50 counties by one vote each and lose a single county by 500 votes, you lose the state.  Campaigns need to focus their efforts on the states where they can swing the outcome into their favor – not wasting money one states that are in the bag or ones that have no shot at.  But once a campaign is actively trying to win a state, every single vote counts the same.  Firing up an extra one hundred supporters in your stronghold or getting one hundred to crawl out of the woodwork in your opponent’s stomping ground – the votes count equal. 

It is hard to put two hands on the trophy when you have two hands around your own neck.

This should be the motto for the American team for the 2012 Ryder Cup Matches played at Medinah in Illinois. The American Squad played marvelously the first two days, and built what is basically considered an insurmountable lead (10-6) but failed to close the deal. Losing in a 14 ½ to 13 ½ final score.

Team Europe put its heavy hitters out early in an attempt to turn the tide. It worked, as the American team consistently lost holes 17 and 18 in a number of matches thereby giving the European contingent some unexpected points.

Miracle at Medinah

This ties for the largest come-back in the history of the event, matching the Miracle at Brookline in the 1999 Ryder Cup matches. The big difference here is that Team Europe did this on American soil, and not riding the wave of emotion that comes with a home field advantage.

I think Brookline at a lot more to do with this week than many golf fans even know.

At Brookline, European Captain, Jose-Maria Olazabal was there front and center in the American celebration. Most ardent golf fans forget that he was the opponent standing on the 17th green in the decisive match and watching Justin Leonard roll in a 45-foot birdie. The ensuing celebration with almost the entire American team running onto the green and basically creating a celebration pile created quite a rift between the teams (and the members of the golfing media on both sides of the Atlantic for that matter ) as it was viewed as a breach of golf etiquette.

Win One For Seve, or Still Steaming About Brookline?

This brings me down to Sunday. With Steve Stricker missing his put on the 18th hole, the match was in fact over. But standing in the 18th fairway was the final paring of the day. Francesco Molinari against Tiger Woods. Eldrick held a 1 up lead at the time.  With 14 points secured, there is really no reason to even finish out the match for that matter. Concede the hole – as the outcome is already decided.

Love concurred telling reporters, “Whatever Tiger and Molinari do we don’t get the cup. We’re stunned anyway. I stood there thinking, ‘Why isn’t over? Why isn’t it good-good?’ What were we playing for?”

Molinari and the Europeans, however, had a different take on the final outcome.

“I thought about giving him the halve in the fairway,” Molinari said. “But then the captain was there and he told me it’s not the same, winning or halving, so get focused and do your best and that’s what I did. . . . I wasn’t expecting him to give it to me.”

Instead both players hit “iffy” approach shots to the green and were both faced with 4 footers to tie with par. Molinari made Tiger putt his and he missed. Tiger gave Molinari his putt, but he made it anyway.

So it appears Olazabal got a little sweet revenge, on something that I can only suppose has been stewing with him for 13 years. On a day dedicated to the great Spaniard Seve Ballesteros, he pulls a totally Seve Ballesteros move of gamesmanship, and not sportsmanship, at the conclusion of the 2012 Matches.

Touché Jose, Touché

Two Hands on the Trophy

Geno Smith

I have been doing a Top 5 Heisman list each week, but this week, I am going away from that completely.

For those that watched the video game…errrr..basketball game….errrr…Track Meet…errrr..Football game between West Virginia and Baylor last Saturday, you will understand the following few lines of rhetoric.

There is only one clear cut person for the Heisman after last week. With the continued wide open, lack of defense football you will see much more in the Big XII this year, I can only imagine what type of numbers he is going to end the year at.

I present to you, this week’s ONLY Heisman candidate. Geno Smith – Quarterback of the West Virginia Mountaineers. All he did on Saturday against Baylor is throw for 656 yards, 8 Touchdowns, 0 Interceptions, 248.0 Rating. 5 carries 32 yards Rushing.

Yup, you read all of that correctly. On the year he has thrown for 1728 yards with 20 Touchdowns and count em NO interceptions. He has also ran for another 98 yards and 1 Touchdown on the year.

Hope he has his plane tickets to New York already on order.

Until Next time. Stay classy Miami, Florida

My son is in high school and taking a classics course. He posed the question “what makes a classic a classic?” This is a difficult question to answer. Everyone has there own opinion. There have been many times I was told to read something because it was a classic, yet it seemed to be basically pulp fiction. To me, a classic has certain elements. First, the story must cross the boundaries of time. Although both are considered classics, it is far easier to understand the motives and characters in The Odyssey they those in The Great Gatsby. The reason for this is that The Odyssey was written assuming that the audience did not understand the motives and therefore they are explained in great detail. The Great Gatsby is written only to the audience of the time. What is obvious to the characters and writer are lost on the current audience.

Most people assume that what is popular during their lifetime will be popular for ever. The fact is that only a small portion of the art of a period moves into the future, the far greater proportion drops into obscurity. In music, for the 1700s, many people could identify Mozart, Bach, and Wagner, but few but experts would even know who Buxtehude was (he was Bach’s teacher). In more modern times, who from the 1960’s would have thought that Pink Floyd would still be selling out live performances in the 2010s but find it almost impossible to get a copy of a Guess Who song other than in an compilation.

With the visual arts the same is true. There were literally hundreds of portrait painters in the 1600s, but he Mona Lisa is still the most famous. True, some masterpieces have been lost due to left, natural disaster, war and the temporary nature of the medium. Today, visual classics could be in the work of the commercial advertiser, but we cannot know for sure until a significant about of time has passed.

The same timelessness is the driver for all forms of art, music, visual and literature. Style changes, what is popular changes, but when something can be shared across generations or even centuries, then it becomes a classic. The works of J. R. R. Tolkien could also be considered classics. They are the basic story of good versus evil with a small hero overcoming immense odds. All of this was born in the nightmare that was the trenches of World War I. It has the forms of a classic, not just because it is a favorite among the anachronistic communities, but because the work itself drew upon earlier classics. Tolkien was a professor of classics specializing in Nordic and ancient Anglo-Saxon literature. He wove a tale that included the details required to allow the reader to understand the circumstances of the characters, even after history had moved well beyond the period he was writing in.

The 19th century novelists also went to great lengths to give background information, thus allowing Jane Austin’s works to last as well. Similarly, Shakespeare wrote with the same push for completeness of story. In many of his works, specifically the histories, his audience was rather ignorant of the topic. Schooling was not what it is today, and some of his effort was to educate his audience as well as entertain. Some works are studied in classics courses more for the fame of the author than the durability of the work. Earnest Hemmingway is studied at length, but as time goes on, many of his works fail the test. They are specific to his time and generation. What is famous today may well fall to the wayside. For example, the Harry Potter novels are very popular and even have the classic good versus evil story line, but they will never stand the test of time. The same goes for the Twighlight series and other popular works. These are all good books, as can be seen by their current popularity, sales and movie deals. The bigger test will be if the next generation even hears about them.

So what makes a classic a classic? Only time will tell.

NFL officials returned to action last night.  Fans at the game gave then a standing ovation – quite possibly an unprecedented occurrence.  The league came to an agreement with officials just days after a bad call – the latest in a series – cost the Green Bay Packers a win.  The league said they wouldn’t cave to public pressure – but I think they did.  The NFL is a money making machine, and the replacement officials were possibly costing the NFL more (lost revenue due to fans turning off the TV) than the extra money the officials were asking for.

Let’s be careful not to place too much blame on the replacement officials.  If your star quarterback can’t play, and you’re forced to throw a seventh round draft pick into the fire,  the kid isn’t going to throw for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Same situation here – the officials didn’t have the skill level necessary for the job, but they gave it their best effort.

Baseball

In the National League, the Cardinals now have a three game lead in the wild card with six games to go.  They’re in good position, but with the collapses of the Braves and Red Sox last year in their memory banks, they are sure to play hard until they have officially clinched a spot.

In the American League, the White Sox have been fading while the Tigers have been a bit stronger down the stretch.  The Tigers now have a two game lead.

The Rangers are on the brink of a playoff berth, but aren’t quite there yet.  If they lose their final six (three games each against contenders Oakland and Anaheim) they could drop into a tie for the last wild card spot.  It’s getting down the “must win” time for Anaheim and Tampa Bay, down two games in the wild card with six to go.  Personally, I’d like to see Oakland and Anaheim as the two wild cards, but that’s pretty unlikely. 

My Rockies just finished off a sweep of the Chicago Cubs.  The Rockies had been playing poorly in recent weeks and were careening toward their first 100 loss season.  Now the Rockies need just one more win to keep losses in the double digits.

Post-season award predictions:

I’ll make my guesses:

American League

MVP: Mike Trout.  Even if you ignore the fact that he’s 21, Trout is having an absolutely historic season, combining high batting average, power, speed, and defense.  The $200 million question is whether Trout has peaked of whether he can get even better.  Miguel Cabrera has had a great year, but the runs he gives away on defense come into play.

Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout, unanimous selection.  Nobody else is even in the room with Trout.

Cy Young: This may be tight, but I think David Price will edge out Dustin Verlander and Matt Harrison.

National League

MVP: I think Buster Posey will beat out Andrew McCutchen based on the Giants making the playoffs and the Pirates falling out of contention.  Really, Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina should also be in the discussion, because of the value he provides with both glove and bat.

Rookie of the Year: I think the hype carries Bruce Harper to the win, even though Wade Miley is probably more deserving.  Who is leading NL rookies in homers and RBI?  The  answer will probably surprise you.  It’s rookie catcher Wilin Rosario of the Rockies with 27 bombs and 70 ribbies.

Cy Young: Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey notched his 20th win, and I think the narrative around his career will help him win the award.  Watch out for Braves closer Craig Kimbrel if Dickey and Gio Gonzalez of the Nationals split the starting pitcher vote.

 Angels rookie sensation Mike Trout has been a trendy pick for the American League MVP for a few months now.  Recently, however, Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers has picked up steam as he has a shot at winning the triple crown (batting average, home runs, RBI).  Here are how the players stack up in those categories (note: Cabrera has 66 more at bats).

Mike Trout

Miguel Cabrera

Supporters of Cabrera point out the fact that Cabrera is leading Trout in all three categories, while Trout “just” leads in WAR (wins above replacement) – which he leads by a dominating margin.  While certainly WAR is not the perfect statistic, it’s a far better indicator of a player’s value than the triple crown stats are.  Cabrera has 50 more RBI than Trout.  Well, yeah.  He’s batting #3 in the lineup and Trout is batting leadoff.  There will be more players on base for Cabrera to drive in.  There have been 427 runners on base for Cabrera and 284 on base for Trout.  Trout has driven in 50/284 (17.6%) and Cabrera has driven in 91/427 (21.3%).  Still an edge to Cabrera, but much smaller.  RBI is as much a factor of the other players on your team as your own ability.  Throw me into the middle of the Rangers lineup and I could probably drive in 75 runs.

There are a couple of big factors that WAR accounts for and the triple crown numbers don’t:

• Trout has 47 steals (caught 4 times) compared to 4 for Cabrera (1 caught).
• Trout plays a premium defensive position (center field) and plays it well.  Cabrera players a corner infield position (less defensive value) and plays it poorly – so poorly that is defense costs his team wins.  There’s a huge difference between Trout’s defensive value and Cabrera’s.

The triple crown is indeed rare, but so is a 10+ WAR season.  Only two players since 1960 have posted a 10+ WAR season and failed to win the MVP that year.  Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle. Just give the award to Trout.

National League Update:

The Nationals, Braves, Reds, and Giants have all clinched playoff berths.  The Reds and Giants have clinched the division, while the Nationals have a four game lead on the Braves.  The Cardinals have a 4.5 game lead on the Brewers and Dodgers in the wild card – probably a safe lead at this point in the season.

American League Update 

In the American league, zero teams have clinched a playoff spot.  In the Central, the White Sox and Tigers and tied, with the loser almost certainly left out of the playoffs.  The Yankees are 1.5 games up on Baltimore in the East.  In the West, all 8 remaining games for the Rangers are against the A’s (5 games) and Angels (3 games).  The lead the A’s by 4 games and the Angels by six games.  Any of those three teams could end up as the division champion, wild card team, or left completely out of the playoffs.  The Devil Rays are just 3 games back of the final playoff spot.  In total, eight American League teams remain in serious playoff contention in the final week of the season.

New playoff format

The playoffs are very different this year.  There is a second wild card team, and those two teams face off in a one game playoff to advance to the next round. This is commonly being referred to as the “coin flip round”.  The next round will be a five game series.  Instead of a typical 2-2-1 format (with the first two games and final game hosted by the better team) this is a 2-3 format, with the first two games hosted by the worse team.  The #1 seed in each league will actually have to wait until the end of the wild card game to know their first round opponent – and then need to jump on a plane and start the playoffs on the road, against a team that had some time off after winning the coin flip game.  The 2-3 format will only be used this year (because it’s a horrible idea) due to scheduling constraints.  MLB added the coin flip game after the regular season schedule had already been set.

World Baseball Classic

Canada and Spain won their qualifiers and advanced to the main tournament.  Canada romped through their games 11-1, 16-7, and 11-1.  Spain actually lose their second round game against Israel, but then advanced out of the loser’s bracket to face Israel in the finals.  They won that game and advanced.  The qualifiers are not true double elimination tournaments, so Israel was bounced despite only having one loss.  The other two qualifying tournaments are in November.

Much Ado About Nothing???

Golden Tate’s Disputed “Catch”

Ok, I get it, the “replacement” NFL officials are very poor. It is difficult to watch some of the calls, incorrect rules interpretations, and general comedy of errors that are occurring in many of the NFL games. It is clear that these guys are over their heads.

Last night might be just the straw the “real” officials are waiting for to end the lock out.

In case you missed it, or have not read a newspaper or listened to any sports talk radio or television today, the final play of the Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers game came down to a last second heave from Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson in the general direction of wide receiver Golden Tate on the final play of the game. The problem is that Green Bay Packer defensive back M.D. Jennings actually fell to the ground with possession of the ball, and then Tate – basically reached in with one arm and got a bit of the football and then the official on the field ruled it a simultaneous catch.

I remind you that I have no allegiance to either team, but I am sure the Packers and Seahawks fans see this play each in their own completely different light.

Where does this one rank?

If you look at sports in general there are a ton of lousy calls that could determine the outcome of games, or even titles or seasons for that matter. Here is a short list of my personal top 5 worst calls ever, but remember, my views are tainted by my team allegiances as well. Not sure where this call ranks on an all-time list, and you might get other arguments but here are my personal top 5 worst calls of all time.

1. Penn State vs. Nebraska – Beaver Stadium – 1982 – Keep in mind I was 12 years old at the time, and this one is still blazed into my memory 30 years later. During the final drive was aided by a Nebraska personal foul on the kickoff and the “questionable” call on the 15-yard sideline pass to tight end Mike McCloskey. Both McCloskey and Penn State Quarterback Todd Blackledge admitted years later what all Husker fans already knew long ago. He was like 2 yards out of bounds when he caught the ball to give them a first down and keep the drive alive. Then Blackledge hits Kirk Bowman on a catch…errrrr…trap….in the end zone to seal the win with 4 seconds left. Penn State eventually wins the National Title that Osborne should have garnered.
2. Colorado’s 5th Down – One of the worst ever (obviously or it would not be on my list!). Colorado is awarded not 4 but 5 chances to punch it in after a first and goal to beat Missouri on the last play of the game and go on to claim a share of the National Title. I would call them cheaters, but the officials made them do it!
3. Put Some Time Back on the Clock…TWICE – The U.S.S.R. somehow gets the officials to put time back on the clock – – not once, but TWICE at the end of the game allowing the Soviet Union a couple of do-overs to score a basket at the buzzer and win the gold medal with a 50-49 victory in the final of the 1972 Games.
4. Missouri’s Loved or Hated Man – The most controversial call in World Series history, first base umpire, Don Denkinger calls the Royals’ Jorge Orta safe at first base in the ninth inning of Game 6 of the 1985 Series against the Cardinals. Replays clearly show that St. Louis pitcher Todd Worrell clearly beat Orta to the bag. Denkinger’s call allows a two run rally by the Kansas City Royals who then pull off a 2-1 victory. Kansas City goes on to win the Series in seven games.
5. Head or Tails? – The easiest call in any football game is the coin flip, unless you are NFL official Phil Luckett. During the 1999 Thanksgiving Day game between the Steelers and Lions the teams come out for the overtime coin flip. Steelers captain Jerome Bettis calls “tails”, but Luckett hears “heads”.  I can still see the looks on Jerome Bettis’s face…”WTF” – The Lions win the toss and go on to win the game. The NFL changes its procedures forever after this monumental turkey day gaffe.

Bottom line when it comes to what all of us fans think is poor officiating…..If you don’t like getting screwed at the end of the game, play better and don’t put yourself in a position to get screwed.

Stat of the Weak (weak)

Johnny Goodman’s Fantasy Football teams, known for countless league titles and copious amounts of lifetime earnings are a combined 0-6 to start the year.

Heisman Trophy Watch

• Nick Florence – QB – Baylor – Can the Bears pull off back to back Heisman winners. Ni-Flo is on fire leading the NCAA is total offense with 174 rushing and 1004 passing in just 3 games.
• Stephon Jefferson – RB – Nevada. Explodes onto the list. Through four games he has 11 rushing TD’s and 699 yards rushing to lead the nation in yards per game rushing.
• Rakeem Cato – QB – Marshall – Stays on the list leading the nation in passing with 10 TD’s and just 2 interceptions along with 1481 yards through 4 games.
• Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia – Should be able to continue to pad his numbers in the normally wide open Big XII. Barely behind Florence of Baylor in total offense per game at this point, but has a much stronger supporting cast than the other candidates on this list.

Stay Classy Nashville, Tennessee (Golden Tate’s Hometown).
 

We’re about six weeks away from election day, and the debates are just around the corner.  While the national polls show the race fairly tight, these polls are completely irrelevant.  A candidate gets the same number of electoral votes if he wins a state by one vote or by ten million.  Large margins may help the national polling numbers, but they don’t actually change the chance that the candidate will win.

For years. my go-to site has been Electoral-Vote.com.  The site operator is very clear about the fact that he’s liberal, but I like the way the data is presented.  The site correctly predicted 48 of the 50 states in 2008, missing only Indiana and Missouri.

At this point, Electoral-Vote.com shows Obama with 328 electoral votes, Romney with 206, and New Hampshire tied.  Romney is expected to lose Massachusetts (where he was governor) convincingly.  That’s not surprising, considering how liberal the state is.  He’s also polling well behind in Michigan, where his father was governor.  While I haven’t researched this in great detail, I’d have to think that winning a presidential election while losing two states where you have deep personal ties would be a historic achievement.  Generally, a candidate can count on his home state to cast their votes for him.

One of my favorite features of the site is the tipping point state chart.  Essentially, this ranks the state from the ones where Obama is doing best (DC and Hawaii) to the states where he is doing worst (Utah and Wyoming).  If you’re a Romney fan, you can read from the bottom up.  The chart lets you see how far down (or up) a candidate must go in order to win.  In order for Romney to win, he’d have to pick up the tied state of New Hampshire, as well as Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, and Ohio – all states where Obama leads.  While it’s true that some of Obama’s leads are within the margin of error, this doesn’t mean that the poll results are wrong – it just means there is a greater likelihood that they are wrong.  Unless there is a systemic error affecting polling in multiple states, a candidate leading by less than the margin or error in large number of states is very likely to win a majority of those states.

How can Romney win?

1. Explain Paul Ryan’s voucher system to senior citizens.  If seniors think that the Republicans are trying to take Medicare away, they could switch their votes or simply not vote at all.  Traditionally, this is a group that leans heavily Republican; it’s hard to imaging a Romney win that doesn’t include winning a majority of the senior vote.
2. Capitalize on Obama gaffes in the debates.  However, it’s important to strike a chord with independent voters, and not simply preach to the choir.  This minds finding cases where the broader population disagrees with an Obama sentiment and hammering away.
3. Getting out the vote.  A great way to overcoming a polling deficit is to simply get more of your party’s voters to the poll. 

Other news:

Senate

Tomorrow is the deadline for Todd Akin to petition a judge to remove his name from the ballot in the Missouri senate race.  If he does this (and the judge agrees) he would have to pay for ballots to be reprinted (possibly hundreds of thousands of dollars), but the Republicans would be able to put a different candidate on the ballot.  Claire McCaskill is comfortable head (although it’s not a blowout), and an Akin pullout would basically start with a clean slate.  I do wonder is McCaskill has been holding back a bit, in order to make Akin think he has a chance (rather than having him drop out and facing a stronger candidate).  Will McCaskill release the hounds on the 26th?

It appears that the Senate will add another independent to its ranks.  Former governor Angus King has a big lead over the Republican candidate.  Since King is expected to caucus with Democrats (although he has not publicly stated this), the Democrats are not supporting their party’s candidate, Cynthia Dill, for fear of splitting the vote between Dill and King and allowing the Republican to win.  Republican PACS have actually run ads in favor of Dill – trying to achieve just such a split.

This story originally ran on October 1, 2011.  It was an enjoyable story to write.  I hope you enjoy reading it. 

April 28, 1888. 1:30 AM.
Gretchen blew out the candle, slipped beneath the quilt, and tried to go to sleep. She was exhausted from the work of tending to the party guests, but sleep would not come.

Instead, the vision kept returning. An infant being born into this household. The infant growing into a boy, and then into a man. The man assuming great power and bringing death upon millions. Her vision was quite clear. The man was pure evil.

Below her small attic room was the master bedroom, where master Alois and mistress Klara were sleeping. The mistress was with child.

Gretchen slept fitfully, unable to accept the message within the vision. The vision would recur many times, leaving horrible nightmares in its wake. Gretchen often awoke drenched in sweat.

May 24, 1888
Gretchen carried the tea to her mistress, remarking that this was a new variety from the market. Klara replied that it was sweeter than the ordinary tea. Gretchen was deeply disturbed by her own actions. She did not want to poison her mistress, but the visions were becoming stronger, the nightmares were becoming worse, and the message was crystal clear – the baby within Klara’s womb was pure evil and must not be allowed to live. She was being asked to intercede.

July 13, 1888
The house was in mourning after the miscarriage. Alois and Klara grieved the loss of their unborn child. Many had attended the funeral at the church in Ranshofen. The relatives had stayed for several days before returning to their own homes, leaving Alois and Klara alone.

During this time, Gretchen was the steady presence that Alois and Klara needed. She cooked, cleaned, and went to the market just as she always had. But she also comforted Klara, slowly bringing her out of the period of darkness until the briefest glimpses of happiness began to appear on occasion once again.

Two days after the funeral, Gretchen announced that they were out of the new variety of tea, and that the shopkeeper had not been able to get any more in stock. That afternoon, she discreetly discarded the arsenic. No longer would she be forced to poison her mistress.

July 30, 1888
The mistress had left at dawn to visit relatives in the Gmunden distict. Gretchen was cleaning the master bedroom when he came to her.

“You have been a great friend to Klara during this dark time. I owe you a great debt, Fräulein Gretchen” he began. “and I am a man who repays his debts.”

Alois looked into her eyes, and Gretchen knew how the debt would be repaid. She was filled with nervous excitement as he moved toward her. This was the moment she had longed for so many times over the years.

Gretchen fell back onto the bed, filled with desire and welcoming the advance of her master. He pulled up the skirt of her dirndl and within a moment was inside her. Gretchen gasped with pleasure as Herr Hitler’s seed was planted inside her.