2012 Robert Edward Auction

April 17, 2012

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At the Soap Boxers, we love the annual sports memorabilia auction from Robert Edward Auctions (REA).  This is the third article we have written about it.  We’re not being paid to publicize the auction – we write about it just because we think it’s very cool.  Even if you don’t buy anything, the catalog is a great coffee table book, filled with a mixture of priceless treasures and really weird shit. 

1910 T206 Sweet Caporal Honus Wagner PSA Authentic

T206 Wagner (Example)

Priceless treasure: T206 Honus Wagner, PSA grade 2. 

The T-206 Wagner is the holy grail of sports card.    There are cards that are more rare than the T206 Wagner, but this card is the most famous.  Even beat up copies can sell for $100,000+, and the best examples can fetch more than a million dollars.  There are many non-baseball fans who are aware of Wagner’s name only because of this card – not realizing that he was one of the greatest players in baseball history.

The specific Wagner in the auction (not the one featured at left) has the date of Oct 16, 1909 stamped on the back in purple.  This was the day of the final game of the 1909 World Series.  REA discovered the existence of another Wagner with the exact same stamp and are saying that this most likely means that the two cards were in the same place in 1909 and were stamped on that day.

Personally, I question whether this is the case.  It’s certainly possible, but it’s also possible that someone bought a stamper decades later and decided to stamp the two cards with the historic date.  Without some sort of forensic analysis of the ink, it’s hard to blindly accept the assertion that it was stamped in 1909. 

Who cares when it was stamped?  Well, if it was actually stamped in 1909, the stamp likely enhances the value a bit.  If someone in 1968 (for example) happened to buy a date stamp, flip the date to Oct 16, 1909, and then proceed to stamp the two cards with the date, then the date stamp is nothing more than 60’s era graffiti and would detract from the value.  (Technically, even if the card was stamped in 1909, it would be graffiti, but it would be easier to overlook if the stamp were historically significant.)

Regardless of when the date was stamped, this Wagner would be a great addition to anyone’s collection.

My favorite items

My favorite auction items are the canceled checks.  Sometimes these are historically significant checks, but often they are not.  Sometimes it’s just a check to the grocery store or the hardware store.  Why do these items fascinate me?  Because they are a view into the life of the person, instead of just the player.  The checks were written in the course of ordinary life, rather signatures being hurriedly scrawled onto a ball thrust in front of them.  In my mind, at least, it humanizes the player.

What else?

There are thousands of items in the auction.  While the auction skews very heavily toward sports items, there are always some cool non-sports items.  Included in this year’s auction is a framed booking card (with fingerprints) autographed by Al Capone.  Capone had himself arrested on a weapons charge in 1929 to get keep himself from getting killed by other mobsters.

Get the catalog.

You can request a free catalog here.
 

 

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How to Write Like a Professional (Part 3)

April 16, 2012

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This installment of writing like a professional will concentrate on biographies. Just as in other forms of writing, biographies have several types that are related. A good example of what could be described as a trans-generational biography is “The Arms of Krupp” by William Manchester. This book traces the life of a corporation through the several generations of the family who founded and ran it over close to 400 years. It is a true biography of the company with many mini-biographies of the individual players spread through the pages. What makes this particular biography so useful as a reference, is that it satisfies both the supporters and the critics of the subjects.

The Krupps were a family in the steel business. They made things from table wear to cannon. They typically supplied both sides of any European conflict with arms until World War II where the limited their efforts to supporting their native country, Germany. This book was embraced by the family as a magnificent testimony of the good that they had done over the centuries. People who wanted one of the last Krupps to be convicted and executed for his role in the Nazi regime also found what they wanted in this same work.

It could be said that Manchester had an easy time, since the people described had been historic figures in his lifetime and those that were not were very colorful. One of the leaders invented the precursor to post it notes by leaving messages on his engineer’s chairs overnight. One leader had his wife put into an insane asylum to hide his homosexual liaisons. The WWII leader convinced the Nuremberg tribunal that his senile father was the one who used the slave labor during the war. All of this is great fodder for writing the story. But Manchester had to do a lot of research to write the book and had to master story telling to be acceptable to both sides of a debate.

Biography is not just depicting a life. Biography is bringing that lifetime back to life for the reader. One of the more famous biographies is James Boswell’s “The Life of Samuel Johnson”. This subject could be very interesting as Samuel Johnson is a significant figure in the development of English as a literary language. Johnson provided one of the first dictionaries and wrote essays and critiques that high school students across America still read. This is an example of a contemporary (Bosworth and Johnson were friends) writing the biography. In this case, the lifetime is exposed with intimate details, private conversations and confessions of fears.

Biographies of famous people are of course the most common, and are usually written well after the life has passed. These works very often carry the personal message of the writer portrayed in the structure of the life being addressed. An easy example of this is Thomas Jefferson. If you call up Thomas Jefferson Biographies on Amazon, there is a list of 454 paper back, 309 hardcover and 29 Kindle versions available. These books have titles such as “The Jefferson Lies”, “Undaunted Courage”, “American Sphinx”, “American Emperor”, and “The Real Thomas Jefferson”. How many of these works actually portray Jefferson accurately is up to the reader and the writer to determine.

There is yet another type of biography to consider. Fictional biography could be the most colorful form of biography available to a writer. In this style, the writer invents the person without having the annoying real person and documentation mucking up the story. “Emma” by Jane Austin is a good example of such a technique. The writer creates everything about the subject, knows all and presents what is most important to the story. It is not political, it is not judgmental, although judgments and political views can be conveyed. This is the best venue to write and not have critics say “it was not that way”. In some ways, any work of fiction includes fictional biography, as the writer must develop characters so that the reader can accept them as real persons.
 

 

Did Arkansas Have To Fire Bobby Petrino?

April 13, 2012

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NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 04:  Head coach Bobb...

Happier times ...

On April 1, Bobby Petrino was the head coach of a highly successful Arkansas Razorbacks football team.  Nine days later, he was out of a job.  After a motorcycle accident that uncovered the presence of a mistress, Petrino was first placed on leave and then fire for cause (meaning he does not receive a buyout).  Bobby Petrino is most likely desperately looking for another job, since it’s probably a bit uncomfortable in the Petrino house at the moment.

Before the firing, fans gathered in support of Petrino.  One woman said that she supported Petrino, but had no sympathy for the woman, as she knew what she was getting into.  Huh?  A guy cheats on his wife with another woman, and he’s somehow less to blame than the mistress?  Pretty sure it takes two to tango.

Was the a necessary course of action for the school?  Yes.  On March 28, long after he began a relationship with the woman, he hired her for a job within the athletic department.  The position garnered 159 applicants, and the person Petrino though was best suited for the job was the woman he was having an affair with.  That’s quite a coincidence.  He was so sure he was making the right choice, in fact, that the candidate search was “shorter than our normal affirmative action hiring process”, to quote Athletic Director Jeff Long.  Reading between the lines, Athletic Director Long is saying that Petrino failed to do due diligence in the search and simply picked the person he wanted, regardless of how her qualifications stacked up to those of other candidates.

Maybe it’s just me, but this seems wildly inappropriate.  It’s an epic conflict of interest, and I’m guessing that 158 other people may be looking for attorneys at the moment.

Even if we put this aside for the moment, it’s not as if improper conduct around members of the opposite sex have never cost anyone a job before.  Larry Eustachy won a national coach of the year award when he was the basketball coach at Iowa State.  Pictures surfaced of him partying with students at road games (students at the opponent’s school) and posing for pictures with women.  Conduct unbecoming a coach?  Definitely.  But I’d say it’s step below what Petrino is accused of.

From another perspective, I see the firing as a good thing.  No longer do wins serve as a mitigating factor for improper conduct.  In the past several years, successful coaches Mike Leach, Mark Mangino, and of course Joe Paterno have been fired for off-field actions.  While you can argue about the merits of the charges levied against them, the fact that the universities fired them is an indication that there are still administrators who will not let coaches go rogue, who will put their foot down and place the reputation of the institution of higher learning – and the future of the student-athletes – ahead of a few extra wins and a few million dollars.

There’s a word for that.

Integrity.

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Are the Democrats Waging A War Against Women?

April 12, 2012

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What a week for political news! First, Senator Santorum drops from the Presidential Race, citing the illness of his little Bella (she has Trisomy 18) and has been very sick lately. This is the most honorable reason, that I can think of, for someone to drop out of a political race.

As a comparison, most candidates drop out due to lack of funds, a scandal or inability to compete. I think that Santorum bowing out now, for this reason, should be respected. Anyone who supported Senator Santorum should be proud. He brought many issues to light that may not have seen discussion if it had not been for Santorum. However, Santorum supporters must recognize it is time to move on. I’ve seen/read quite a few bitter Santorum supporters who are not reviewing the remainder of the field to support the GOP. Folks, I know it’s only been a few days, but we’ve got to move on. When T-Paw dropped out after the Iowa Straw Poll, it took me MONTHS to decide on another candidate. But I did. There’s no point in holding a flame for a candidate who is no longer in the race. If we want to defeat Obama this year, we’ve got to suck it up and move on. It’s how politics works.

Photo of Hilary Rosen

Democratic strategist Hilary Rosen

And speaking how politics works, I would like to encourage the left to keep talking. Last night, Hilary Rosen (a Democratic strategist) stated that Ann Romney “hasn’t worked a day in her life.” Really? Really. Ann Romney, a stay at home mother of 5 boys, who has MS and fought Cancer, “hasn’t worked a day in her life.” As a work at home mom of 3 boys (and one boy on the way), I think the only appropriate punishment for Rosen is to have to clean every ball pit in the world. Then maybe she’d understand just how hard mothers work.

It seems the Democrats are attempting some damage control. Michelle Obama (herself) tweeted “Every mother works hard, and every woman deserves to be respected.” The best thing the Left could do is put as much space between themselves and Rosen right now. But if they distanced themselves from every member of the Liberal Left that said something stupid, we’d stop hearing from Biden, Maher etc. I suppose that wouldn’t be a bad thing.

It seems the real war on women has been exposed. I thought the whole women’s lib movement was for women to be able to make their own choices. Yes, I have a 4 year degree, but I CHOOSE to work from home (gasp). And yes, I do work.

Thank you, Hilary Rosen. Thank you for bringing the GOP together. I encourage all of the working women (those who have children and those who have not been blessed with children yet) to back the GOP. Let’s show the left just how hard we do work.

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Longest Serving Prisoner Dies

April 11, 2012

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Mugshot taken of William Heirens, taken in prison.

"Lipstick Killer" William Heirens

On June 26, 1946, Ted Williams went 4 for 7 with 2 home runs in a double header against the Detroit Tigers. He’d win his first American League MVP that year and would finish his Hall of Fame career lauded by many as The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived.

This day, so many decades ago, was also the last day that William Heirens took a breath as a free man. On March 5, 2012, Heirens died in prison. He had been in prison for 65 years and was thought to be the world’s longest serving prisoner.

Early life

Heirens got off a a bad start in life.  By the age of thirteen, he was already an accomplished burglar.  After being arrested on a weapons charge, a search of his parents’ property yielded a significant cache of stolen property.  Heirens was eventually sentenced to spend time at a school run by monks.  He excelled as a student, and was accepted to college at age 16.

The Killing

Heirens was eventually arrested for three killings.

The first killing was Josephine Ross on June 5, 1945.  Her killing was not a particularly unusual one, as far as murders go.  The thought was that she had interrupted a burglar, who had then killed her.

On December 20, 1945, Frances Brown was killed – and the killer left behind a message for the police.  This message was written on the wall in lipstick:

For heavens
sake catch me
before I kill more
I cannot control myself.

Clearly, this was a very disturbing message.  Police now knew they were dealing with a serial killer – and very likely a mentally disturbed and unpredictable one.

On January 6, 1946, a six year old girl, Suzanne Degnan was kidnapped.  Her body was eventually found in several pieces, strewn over a large area.  The murderer had left behind a ransom note

On the front:
GeI $20,000 Reddy & wAITe foR WoRd. do NoT NoTify FBI oR Police. Bills IN 5’s & 10’s
 
on the back:
BuRN This FoR heR SAfTY

Heirens arrested

On June 26, 1946, Heirens was arrested after committing a burglary. A policeman dropped three flowerpots on his head, which was eventually enough to subdue him.

While in custody, Heirens claims that he was treated very roughly by the police.  He was interrogated for six straight days, given sodium pentothal (truth serum), and at one point punched in the testicles.  Miranda rights?  They didn’t exist – Miranda vs. Arizona was still twenty years away.  Heirens was just seventeen at the time.

Authorities alleged that under the influence of sodium pentothal, Heiren admitted that an alternate personality of his admitted to the murders.

Confession

Heirens’s lawyers felt that it was likely he would be convicted, and worked out a plea bargain with the prosecution.  Heirens claimed that a Chicago Tribune article about the killings was used as a guide.  When he would give information that conflicted from the story in the Tribune, his lawyers would nudge him back to the Tribune’s story line.

At the last moment, the state’s attorney yanked an agreement for one life term and changed it to three life terms … or he’d go to trail and seek the death penalty.

The prison years

During his sixty five years in prison, William Heirens earned 250 college credits, paying the tuition with his own money.  He became the first prisoner in Illinois to earn a four year degree.  He set up the education system at one prison, helped inmates earn GEDs, and served as a jailhouse lawyer.

According to the regulations of 1946, Heirens should have been set free in 1983.  However, these regulations changed in 1973.  Although a 1983 appeals court rule that Heirens should be released immediately.  This ruling was later reversed, and Heirens remained behind bars.

Questions about his guilt

We never got a chance to see how the evidence would play to a jury, since Heirens agreed to a plea deal instead.  There’s certainly much to ponder.

Had the confession gained under the admission of sodium pentothal been used in court, Heirens would have likely been given a new trial, as evidence gained by using “truth serums” was deemed inadmissible by the 1950s.

Handwriting samples from Heirens matched nine points of comparison with the lipstick writing.  But that’s hardly a surprised, since 65% of the population would have had handwriting that would have matched these same points of comparison.

Eyewitness testimony – which is notoriously unreliable in the best of situations – shifted over time.  Witnesses who weren’t sure that Heirens was the man they saw eventually became completely convinced that he was.

Perhaps the most damning evidence was a bloody fingerprint at the home of Frances Brown.  However, this evidence has been called into question.  Among other concerns is that fact that it appears to be a rolled print (the sort you would get when someone has their prints taken be the police) as opposed to a “flat” print that would occur naturally.

The confession Heirens signed?  There was dozens of discrepancies between his account of the killings at the actual facts of the murders.  However, it’s conceivable that Heirens could have planted false information in his confession so that he could use these discrepancies to later claim that the testimony was coached.  Remember, this is a very intelligent person.

Did he do it?

I honestly don’t know.  The existence of the death penalty was the game changer.  If not for the existence of the electric chair, Heirens may have decided to roll the dice at trial.

Was William Heirens a saint?  Certainly not.  At the very least, he was a burglar.  But was he a murderer?  We’ll never known for sure.

 

The William Heirens case is one of many included in The Casebook of Forensic Detection.

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The Sports Beat

April 10, 2012

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Bubba Watson

Bubba Watson signing autographs on the putting...

No more car payments!

It’s been a good year for Bubba Watson.  Back in January, Watson bought the original General Lee from the Duke of Hazzard TV show for $110,000.  How to pay for such an expensive ride?  Well, Watson had been planning to sell his house … but after winning $1.44 million in prize money by gutting out a sudden death overtime at the Masters, there’s little chance that Bubba will end up homeless.  Watson hasn’t had a golf lesson since age ten, and doesn’t use a swing coach.  Does he remind you of Tin Cup, too? 

Phil Mickelson was a stroke back entering play on Sunday, but his chances to win the tourney were seriously dented with a triple bogey.  Tiger Woods had an awful weekend, making some wonder if the rumors of his resurgence were greatly exaggerated. 

Baseball

Cow Palace, San Francisco

Wow. 21 million bucks.

Baseball owners continue to hand out money like it’s candy.  In the last two deals, teams dropped $96 million on three players. players.  Ian Kinsler, the oft-injured star second baseman for the Texas Rangers, signed a five year deal worth $75 million.  Moments ago, fellow second baseman Brandon Phillips of the Reds signed a six year deal worth $72.5 million.  These are two of the elite second basemen in the game today.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians signed catcher Carlos Santana  to a five year deal worth $21 million, with a club option for 2017.  There’s been an uptick in spending in recent years, much of it financed by big new regional sports television deals.  (Hey, MLB: know how to make the regional deals worth even more?  Get rid of crazy blackout situations like mine – where five teams are blacked out even after I pony up big bucks for MLB Extra Innings).

On the one hand, it’s easy to love these deals as a fan – teams are locking up core contributors for a long period of time.  On the flip side, there’s a lot of financial risk.  Unlike football, baseball contracts are guaranteed.  If Albert Pujols stinks it up this year, the Angels can’t wriggle out of his contract.  I’m definitely concerned about the amount of dead money some teams could have if a player takes a downturn.  My thought would be to have some sort of vesting option.  If a player reaches a certain threshold (125 IP or 350 plate appearances, for example), the next year automatically vests.  This would protect the team while still being better for the players than the “cut you at any time” model of the NFL.

NFL Draft

HOUSTON - DECEMBER 31:  Quarterback Ryan Tanne...

Teams are hoping that Ryan Tannehill isn't "all hat, no cowboy"

The NFL draft is now just a couple of weeks away.  With Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III sure to be off the board with the first two picks of the draft, attention turns to the third best QB in the draft – Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M.  Tannehill was a wide receiver for two years before getting a chance to player quarterback for the Aggies.  I can’t imagine there’s a long list of players who have accumulated 1500 receiving yards and 5000 passing yards in a career, but Tannehill’s on the list.

The Dolphins desperately want Tannehill, but everyone knows that.  The Dolphins have the eighth pick, so it’s conceivable that a team could trade up in the draft to leapfrog Miami, or that the Dolphins themselves could push higher as a preemptive strike.  Don’t be surprised if Tannehill is among the top six players off the board.

Bobby Petrino

Arkansas placed head coach Bobby Petrino on administrative leave following a motorcycle accident.  At issue is the fact that Petrino lied to his boss regarding the involvement of a second person.  The passenger on the motorcycle was a young woman who worked for Petrino – and with whom he was having an “inappropriate relationship” (his words).  On Tuesday, a crowd gathered to support Petrino.  This is going to get interesting before all is said and done.

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How To Write Like A Professional (Part 2)

April 9, 2012

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LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 18:  George R. R. ...

Why is George R.R. Martin apologizing?

This is the second of a series of articles to look at professional writers and how reading can help your writing.

The first part of this series focused on Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson.  His specialty is scientific writing both for professional scientist and the general public.   This week the author of choice is George R. R. Martin.  He has penned a series of books that are best described as fantasy.  This series called “A Song of Fire and Ice”, but it is more popularly known by the HBO series taking the title of the first book, “Game of Thrones”.

These books provide an excellent example of continuation of story line.  Although most authors have complete ideas that can be conveyed in a single book, there are time when an idea is so grand that it must be provided over a long sequence of books.  The most difficult part of this type of writing requires the author to find break points, stops in the story that provide some closure but also drive the reader to return for the next installment.  This is where the author starts to become a screen writer.  Other examples of this type of writer (staying within genre) are J.R.R. Tolkien with his “Lord of the Rings” series, and J.K. Rowling’s “Harry Potter” series.

As you read each of these works, there is always a breathing space, point in the books where the action slows down for the reader.  These breaks or relaxations of tension are needed to give the reader a chance to set the book down.  If the action is non-stop, like a Bruce Willis film, the reader will get burned out.  The difference between a well written book and a movie is that the movie has the attention getting sight and sound distractions that a book cannot provide directly.  These breaks are in addition to the breaks that signify the end of one book, with enough of a cliff hanger (or unanswered questions) to lead into the next work.

The selections identified here have all been made into movies or television mini-series.  Most book series are actually tailor made for just such a transition.  Of course, if you actually have the opportunity to have you work transfigured into another media, remember that there will have to be editing.  Where you describe a scene for 300 words, is but an instant on the screen.  Your effort to build a tension between two characters may come in just a few words but may take much longer, with actors positioning and delivery much more important than the dialog you created for your reader.

The examples given are all novel length stories in a series.  Short stories can also be used for this type of activity.  Some series are only drawn together by a single character rather than a theme or grand overall vision.  All of the works discussed here are series of six or more books ranging in length from 200 to 800 pages.  Others, such as the James Bond books by Ian Fleming are about 100 pages each, with one being a series of short stories.

The point of this discussion is that if you think you have too big of a story, you can still write it.  This effort will be long, and finding break points will be hard.  All writing is noble, even if the result is not presentable.  Work your ideas knowing that you may have to present them to your audience a course at a time.  Going back George R. R. Martin, he has had to apologize on numerous occasions to his readers.  He takes a long time to get one of his books put together.  He has had to break the story in ways that some readers have not liked, such as ignoring some characters for an entire book to concentrate on them in the next.  In interviews, he has admitted that he just has too much to present.  He is extremely successful at writing and still has the same problems the rest of us amateurs face.

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Guide To Attending The Masters

April 6, 2012

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There is nothing quite like Augusta National Golf Club.

The Masters Tournament signals in the unofficial golf season around the United States. We all tune in to watch and marvel and the condition of the course. Many golfers and sports fans alike have it on their “bucket list”

I had the opportunity to go with a person who has attended the tournament for over 30 years back in 2009. I enjoyed watching Tiger and Phil play in the same group on Sunday and winced with most of the crowd when Kenny Perry faltered down the stretch. This eventually set up a three way playoff between Perry, Chad Campbell and eventual champ that year Angel Cabrera. You can read that original article here.

Getting there is not as tough as you think.

Unless you are connected and happened to have a family friend or a rich uncle that has annual patron badges, you have a couple of methods to still seeing the emerald cathedral in person.

Each year on the website for the Masters – normally starting slightly after the tournament’s conclusion you can apply for tickets to the following years tournament. The main badges are long since gone, and the waiting list is longer than checkout lines at Wal-Mart on the day after Thanksgiving.

Augusta National offers a lottery type drawing for you, and anyone else you can convince to put in a ticket request on your behalf. You can apply for practice rounds or actual tournament days. I would suggest that you apply for all of them.

This year I had a few co-workers that were successful in getting practice round badges using this method.

Option #2 is to use an on-line ticket brokerage on on-line auction service to purchase your tickets.

My wife and I did this option this year as I truly wanted to go back to the tournament when I could take photos…which is ONLY during a practice round.

Here are a couple of helpful tips for you if you are planning on going to Augusta in the future to watch the Masters:

1) Stay in Columbia! – Columbia South Carolina is a little over a hour drive from Augusta, and you won’t have to sell your spleen to be able to book a hotel room. We stayed in the Harbison area which had great shopping and a lot of nice restaurants in a Comfort Inn for $95 a night. If you stay in places such as Aiken or even Augusta – get out the checkbook.

2) Get there early!. Gates open at 8 am on practice round days, but you want to be there by no later than 7:15. Why? You have to park, then walk to the gates and then get into the tournament through nothing short of what I would describe as a “friendly” TSA type of scanning process.
 
 

3) Hit the merchandise tent – make it your FIRST STOP! You can pretty much only get Masters “gear” from the Tournament site itself. So, get in early, go purchase your souvenirs and then exit to the left of the merchandise building and either check your bag (they will gladly hold it for you until you leave at the end of the day) or better yet, use the local shipping service tent to send it back home and avoid the extra luggage on the airplane.

4) Take lots of photos and follow your favorite players. Word of warning. Augusta is a very hilly piece of real estate. Television – even HD television does not due the elevation changes justice. Grab a comfy and broken in pair of shoes. You will also want to hydrate often if it is warm (it was 95 ish Monday this year when I was there)

 

 

5) Eat up!. Need to experience some of the local fare such as chicken biscuits in the morning, and the pimento cheese sandwiches in the afternoon. Best thing about the Masters??? Concessions are CHEAP. Everything you see below cost the wife and I $7 for our first refueling stop of the morning.
 
 
  
I truly hope you all have the chance to make it there someday. Have a great weekend and enjoy the golf!



Until next time, Stay Classy Augusta Georgia…I know you will

[Editor’s note: click on any of the images to view a larger version]

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GOP Endgame

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Governor Mitt Romney of MA

Romney is the inevitable GOP nominee

As we get into April and many primaries become winner take all, it’s going to be easier for Mitt Romney to put distance between himself and Rick Santorum.  The carrot for Santorum is the fact that the month of May could hold some big wins for him – including Texas – but he might be in too big of a hole by them.  Currently, Romney leads 655 to 278.  He’s expected to win decisively in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island. 

There’s also the key battle in the Keystone State on the 24th.  If Romney wins Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania, it’s going to be hard to hold out much hope for Santorum.  Honestly, at this point, it’s a question of whether Romney can get to 1144 delegates.  Santorum doesn’t really have a shot at 1144, but if Romney can’t reach the number, a brokered convention could decide the nomination – incentive for Romney to keep the pedal to the metal.

Is Santorum focusing more on 2016 than 2012 at this point?  That’s a definite possibility.  His harsh anti-Romney rhetoric scores points with his own fans, but comments such as the one comparing Romney to Obama can only serve to hurt Romney in the general election.  A candidate in a primary really has two goals.  The first goal is to ensure that their party wins in the general election.  The second goal – a lesser goal, in my mind – is to get themselves elected to be the standard bearer for the party.  Is Rick Santorum handing votes to Barack Obama every day that he stays in the Republican race?  Probably.

The other candidates in the GOP field have really fallen to the side and at this point are really just serving as a spoiler for Santorum.

Billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who has funneled millions of dollars into the Gingrich campaign through Gingrich’s SuperPAC, is putting his checkbook back in his pocket.  At some point, you stop throwing good money after bad.  With his campaign in the red, Gingrich has begun charging $50 per pose for photo ops with supporters.  Yes, $50 for a photo with a guy who finished third in the 2012 Republican primary.  I think Gingrich has the whole concept of “buying votes” a bit backward. 

Is Ron Paul being cheated?

And then there’s Ron Paul.  Paul’s campaign really sheds light on the fact that there are two dimensions to a candidate’s popularity.  The first is the size of the following, and the second is the intensity of their support for the candidate.  Paul is off the charts in terms of average intensity.  The only problem is that all votes count the same – a fervent supporter’s vote doesn’t count any more than a tepid supporters.  A vote is a vote.

Rumors of a third party run are swirling again, but I really don’t see how this is a viable option.  How, exactly, would Paul get enough votes to be viable in the general election?  He’s running fourth in the Republican field, and it’s not likely that he would peel off many liberal votes from the Obama camp.

I’ve also seen some folks in the tinfoil hat brigade allege vote fixing in the primary, pointing to “huge” Ron Paul crowds and saying this with such huge crowds, his vote counts should be higher than the official tallies – so someone must be fixing the numbers.

Recent “evidence” of this is a recent Paul rally in Los Angeles.  His supporters show images of a packed house and allege that there were 10,000 in attendance.  Well, the facility in question (UCLA’s tennis center) has a max capacity of 6,000.  Even if the 10,000 number is accurate, look at this number in context.  The LA metro area has about 12.8 million people.  That would mean that one out of every 1280 people in the LA metro showed up to the event.

Fervent supporters, Paul has.  He just doesn’t have enough of the “grunt” variety who quietly cast votes.

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Is Obamacare Constitutional?

April 5, 2012

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Is Obamacare constitutional?

Barack Obama signing the Patient Protection an...

Barack Obama signing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act at the White House.

The federal mandate to buy health insurance is the very heart of Obamacare.  This is interesting because people keep saying that health care is a right.  Maybe so, but this law doesn’t mandate health care, it mandates health insurance.  This is a big issue for me.  I don’t HAVE to buy auto insurance unless I want to license my vehicle.  That’s a far cry from saying I’m going to buy auto insurance or face a tax/penalty or whatever.

There is an argument that people abuse the Emergency Rooms and clinics and they don’t have healthcare coverage.  I agree; that is most certainly true.  Yes, we’re all paying for it and that isn’t fair…I agree with that too.  This however isn’t the answer; if we enact a government health care plan we’re all still paying for it!  How stupid is that?

I would propose a program for unpaid health care bills similar to the way unpaid child support is handled.  If someone isn’t paying their bills or they aren’t on a payment plan they get put on a list.  This list then causes any tax rebates/refunds to be held for payment.  This list should also keep someone from obtaining a driver’s license unless they are acting in good faith by establishing and staying current on a payment plan for their health care costs.  This (of course) would have to be driven by the states and not the Federal government or we’ll end up in the courts again.

If the courts decide that we can’t be forced to buy health care insurance, what will happen?  I’ve heard that the mandate is the only thing that made this work financially.  The law of large numbers is the key to making insurance work.  If Obamacare accepts everyone but only a small group of people apply for it (like the uninsurable) the cost of the care will not be affordable or it will be subsidized by the government making the entire purpose of the law moot.  How will the government cover those costs?  Raise taxes?  Cut or limit the coverage?  This is what traditional health insurers have had to do to cover costs and no one is happy with that.

Presidential Race

We’re into April, and still we don’t know for sure who the Republican nominee will be.  The rule changes made by the Republican National Committee to force all pre-April caucuses and primaries to use proportional delegate allocation (as opposed to winner take all) is playing a part in this.  With a winner take all contest, a relatively small win can shower a candidate with a large number of delegates.  When delegates are awarded on a proportional basis, a small win becomes just a small difference in the number of delegates awarded – making the race to 1144 delegates much longer.

SuperPACs are also playing a big role.  Romney definitely isn’t hurting for money, and Santorum and Gingrich each have had a billionaire in their pocket (Sheldon Adelson for Gingrich and Foster Friess for Santorum).  Under the new rules, these two heavyweights have been able to funnel millions in cash to their candidates through SuperPACS – and it’s 100% legal.  The SuperPACs have allowed candidates to remain active in the race even without broad-based support from the electorate.  If you can have a buddy write a $1 million check, that’s just as effective as getting twenty thousand people to contribute fifty bucks.

Romney or Santorum—we just need to choose. Seriously, how long can this indecision be stretched out?  Tell me this will be decided by convention time.  It’s time to rally behind one Republican candidate and focus on the true task at hand – ensuring that Barack Obama is a one term president.

Communism Talk

North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, and China – they’re all bad, they have terrible leaders and we shouldn’t be supporting them in any way.  We need to make sure that we’re revoking any funding and not lending any aid.  If they want it they need to play by the rules.  If they don’t play by the rules and agreements they get nothing.  What is North Korea doing testing ICBMs that could reach the US?  Now is the time to be tough.  Clearly Bill needs to screw around with Monica again, get Hillary really mad and then send her to Pyongyang to dismantle Kim Jong-un’s newly acquired government.  Can you imagine a more intense strike force?  I’m not sure that Seal Team 6 could survive a wife scorned twice by the Slick Willie.

Zimmerman vs. Martin

I have to make a follow up comment to my original piece on the George Zimmerman/Trayvon Martin situation.  NBC released an apology for editing the 911 call from Zimmerman that made him sound like a racist.  If you’re one of the people that have been calling for George Zimmerman’s head on a platter you need to read my original blog and this story in the Washington Post.

Again, it is not your duty to judge based on the limited and biased information you’ve been fed by the media.  Just wait until all the information comes out.  The Grand Jury hasn’t even convened on this so don’t rush to judgment.

The Pendulum Swings

Romney

Santorum

Romney

Santorum

Gingrich

Romney

Santorum

 

North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Russia and China.

Obamacare is constitutional, Obamacare is unconstitutional, Obamacare is constitutional, Obamacare is unconstitutional….now we wait for the Supreme Court.

Why is there so much up and down lately?  Everything is back and forth, ebb and flow, left then right.  This is frustrating for me because I really try to make quick and informed decisions.  When I see this pendulum swinging each direction so frequently I don’t understand why.

Squeaky…
 

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