The SoapBoxers

Don’t all teenage dates end on top of satanic altars? I guess the new darling of the Tea Party and Republican Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell would like everyone to believe that. The comment comes from a past clip of one of her many appearances on the show Politically Incorrect that was brought to light once again by its host Bill Maher on his new show Real Time (see the clip as part of her Greatest Hits on Youtube). The clip has her stating that she once dabbled in witchcraft and one of her first dates ended up on a satanic alter with blood dripping from it. I guess her new campaign slogan should be YES WICCAN!!!

Now while like most things O’Donnell says or has said, the clip is amusing but this one in particular won’t have much of a factor on her losing the Senate race in Delaware. That’s because her tea party crowd just loves them story of redemption. Of how she could overcome her ways of witchcraft and being at the altars of the evil Obama and come to a better life today of living of others campaign contributions.

This is the real thing about the Tea Party’s new love interest. It is truly amazing to me how a crowd so hell-bent on how government should be not allowed to waste their money, yet they have no qualms about letting their political prostitute O’Donnell use their money any way she desires. Yes I called O’Donnell a political prostitute, that is what she is. She does not have a job and lives off money given to her for running for political office. So I hope the tea party loves their position as the political Johns right now.

This past Sunday O’Donnell was to appear on a couple of the Sunday news shows, but quickly cancelled those appearances after Maher released his clip adn promise that he hd many more to release. Granted she said that she was overworked and needed to relax and get away for the weekend. We have to believe her right? After all, she did once say that she would not have even lied to Hitler to save Anne Frank. Unfortunately teabaggers she isn’t that honest either. She lies as much as Sister Sarah, just she is not as crafty about it. She quickly went into redirections of her motive throughout the weekend ending up with she overbooked events and Delaware events and voters should be the focus. Good for her, if that was the actual motive, but it was not as Delaware voters are her main concern.

I think the last stat I saw on the issue was that over 80% of O’Donnell’s contributions this cycle were from outside of Delaware. So if Delaware needs to be the focus maybe she should return some of that money she was so adamantly trying to get at just last week. On Hannity last night O’Donnell professed she will do no more national interviews because Delaware needed to be the focus. However while it would be the good reason, it is not her real reason, she just doesn’t want to have any more missteps on her way to losing the Senate race than she will have anyways from her own past comments.

I say on her way to losing the race because that IS going to be the endgame of this race in my opinion. A seat that was once thought to go to the dark side is now a pretty safe seat to hold. Even polls so right biased seem to think so. The Fox News battleground poll had the Democrat Chris Coons up 54% to 39% over O’Donnell. On an amusing note though in the same polling if Mike Castle would be the nominee he would be trouncing Coons 48% to 33%. Now since I usually don’t believe anything that comes from Faux News alone, another usually right biased poll Rasmussen has Coons up 53% to 42%. So way to stick it to the establishment teabaggers, by making an obvious pickup into a safe seat for the opposition instead.

Now the only poll that matters is the one on election day, but the result will be no different than the pst two times she has run before, especially now that everyone is vividly aware o how much of a nut she is. So I sit here waiting with bated breath at the next piece news to come out from O’Donnell whether a current misstep or a past one. The are all amusing to me. Until that time though I will protect myself from the invasion of mice-human hybrids and continue to be master of my own domain.

I tend to pay very little attention to directors and producers. I can tell you that Stars Wars is a George Lucas film, but very little beyond that. It has simply never been something that struck me as terribly important. I’ve always focused primarily on plot and secondarily on the cast. The other details were never particularly important.

Recently, I have been watching a lot of NCIS. I got into the show about a year ago, and have been DVR’ing the crap out of it lately. I really don’t watch a ton of TV, so NCIS probably makes up about 80% of my non-baseball viewing right now.

I’m not really drawn toward military themed shows, so NCIS is a bit of an odd choice. It’s basically a cop show with Navy details. Why wouldn’t I just pick from the various cop shows currently on TV (Criminal Minds has been suggested to me by several people)?

A big reason why I enjoy the show is that is has a large number of well-developed characters. So many of the characters have depth that it’s impossible for me to choose a favorite character. I started watching the show because of Mark Harmon – who, for reasons that I can’t fully explain, is one of my favorite actors. On the other hand, I hang on every word of Ducky’s stories. I like the computer geek stuff that McGee delves into and the forensic science that is Abby’s forte. And let’s not forget DiNozzo getting smacked in the head or Ziva beating up some guy who underestimated her.

In other words, there’s not a whole lot that I don’t like about the show. I found myself enjoying the show so much that I want to Wikipedia to look up some of the details.

I had known that the producer was Donald Bellisario – but I wasn’t aware of Bellisario’s other credits (I told you, I pay very little attention to them). Quantum Leap, JAG, and Magnum PI? It struck me that this man was responsible for perhaps 40% of the dramas I have ever liked. When I watch non-sports programming, I generally lean toward comedies. The fact that I liked every Bellisario show that I had ever seen spoke volumes to me.

I always say that a true test of a story is the ability to interest me when I have no particular interest in the subject matter. In the case of Quantum Leap and Magnum, the subject areas were topics that I enjoy. Bellasario’s biggest challenge was getting me to enjoy JAG and NCIS when I really don’t have any special interest in the military – and he passed in flying colors.

If you haven’t caught NCIS yet, watch the new season on Tuesday nights this fall – or catch reruns on USA, Sleuth, or Ion. Reruns are on quite frequently. If NCIS isn’t your thing, give Bellisario’s other works a chance. This guy is truly an American treasure.

[Note: click on any of the links to visit the Amazon store for the series.  We will earn a small commission on any sales.  This does not increase your cost.]

Week off for Johnny last week as I was on vacation, I will say that I would have had a huge week, and since you cannot see any of my picks (since I did not publish an article) you will have to just take my word for it.

Things we learned last week:

• There is a muddled mess in the rankings, teams like Oklahoma, Texas, and others look really good one week and really average the next
• Nebraska’s red-shirt Freshman QB looked really good and the Huskers defense just cost Jake Locker a bunch of money
• Michigan and Notre Dame have absolutely no defense

Thursday

Miami (FL) @ Pittsburgh (-1.5) – Big East battle. I like the canes. Miami – 28 – Pitt 21

Saturday

Virginia Tech @ Boston College (-2.5) – Virginia Tech has to start playing better one of these days. Va Tech – 21 – BC – 17

Central Florida @ Kansas State (-7.5) – Daniel Thomas for Heisman! K St – 28 – Central Fla – 20

UCLA @ Texas (-21.5) – Wow, where did THAT UCLA team come from last week? Texas is overrated but UCLA has QB issues. Texas 31- UCLA 7

Stanford (-1.5) @ Notre Dame – ND stands for “no defense” Stanford – 34- ND 20

Wake Forest @ Florida State (-19.5) – Which Fla State team will show up? FST – 28 – Wake 10

Nevada (-2.5) @ BYU – Nevada looked really good last week, but this is in Provo….won’t matter. Nevada 35- BYU 20

Kentucky @ Florida (-16.5) – Florida due to get on track – FLA 35- Kentucky – 14

Northern Iowa @ Iowa State (-6.5) – Clones game was closer than indicated last week, but this is the super bowl for UNI gimmie the Clones! IA St 28 – UNI 17

Alabama (-4.5) @ Arkansas – Roll Tide! Bama 28 – Ark 20

South Carolina @ Auburn (-1.5) Lattimore for Heisman! The Frosh looks good! SC – 24 – Auburn – 21

Oregon State @ Boise State (-16.5) Wow big spread, I like the Broncos but not to cover. Boise St – 30 – Ore St 20

West Virginia @ LSU (-5.5) – West Virginia can’t hang with the big boys….LSU 21- WV – 14

California @ Arizona (-4.5) – Will it be a let down week for zona…don’t bet on it. Ari – 28 – Cal 21

Oregon (-10.5) @ Arizona State – Oregon is like watching video game football. Ore 49 – ASU – 17

It’s the 19th of September, and only two division leaders in baseball have a lead of less than 4 games.  One of the tight races is in the AL East, where the Yankees hold a 1 1/2 game lead over the Devil Rays.  There is a nice consolation price for the loser of that race – the Devil Rays currently hold a 6 1/2 game lead over the Red Sox for the Wild Card.

The other tight race is in the NL West, where the Giants hold a 1/2 game lead over the Padres and a 1 1/2 game lead over the Rockies.  Had the Rockies not squandered a 6-1 lead against the Dodgers on Sunday, this race could be even tighter.  There’s a bit more desperation in the NL West race, because all three teams are a bit behind the Braves in the wild card race (although this could change if the Phillies sweep Atlanta in their series).

All three teams were idle yesterday and return to action in road games today – the Giants against the Cubs, the Padres against the Dodgers, and the Rockies against the Diamondbacks.  This weekend will feature a critical matchup between the Rockies and Giants at Coors Field, while the Padres face NL Central leaders Cincinnati at home. 

In the final week of the season, the Giants will start out with a home series against the Diamondbacks, the Padres will go to Wrigley to face the Cubs, and the Rockies will face the Dodgers at home.  When the calendar flips to October, we’ll see the Rockies traveling to St. Louis to face the always dangerous Albert Pujols and the Cardinals while the Padres and Giants battle in San Francisco.

As you can see, the Cubs, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks will all act as spoilers down the stretch, as they face two of the three division contenders.

Who has the tought row to hoe during the season’s final fortnight?  Well, the Giants get to face the suddenly hot Cubs (winners of six straight) and have to face both the Rockies and Padres.  They do have a three game set against the Diamondbacks that should allow them to pick up some easy wins.

The Padres don’t have a cakewalk either, with series against two division leaders – San Francisco and Cincinnati.  Expect Cincinnati to have the pedal to the metal as they fight for a higher seed in the playoffs.  They are currently the 2 seed and certainly would not want to slip to the 3 seed and lose home field advantage in the first round.

That brings us to the Rockies.  On paper, it’s not a horrible schedule.  They face only one division leader (San Francisco) and those games are at home.  One of their road series is against the Diamondbacks, who are the second worst team in the National League.  They’ll finish with a four game series against a Cardinals team that will likely have nothing to play for.  But on the bad side, the fact that the Padres and Giants finish the season against each other provides an interesting obstacle – if they trail one of the other teams by 2 games with 3 games left to go, it will be impossible for them to make up the gap.  Why?  Because either the Padres or Giants must win at least 2 games in their 3 game series.  Yep – if the Giants lead the Rockies by 2 games and the Padres by 3 games going into the final series, the Rockie would be mathematically eliminated, but the Padres would still be alive.

So, what happens if there is a 3 way tie for the division?  Two of the teams will play an elimination game, with the winner hosting the third team.  The teams will be ranked on their head-to-head records, with the top seed (the Rockies have clinched this) deciding whether they want home field advantage (in both games) or to be the team that waits to face the winner of the first game (but has to travel).

Which is the correct choice?  Teams play better at home than they do on the road, but it’s not a slam dunk to take the home field advantage, since the home team must win two games.  In order for the home team to have the advantage over the team that needs to win just the final road game, there would need to be a 62% probability for the home team to win vs. 38% for the road team (.62*.62 = .3844).  And even though there are a few teams that exceed this rate, it’s also important to note that the home team would need to burn their best available pitcher in the first game, whereas the team-in-waiting would head into the second game fresh and rested.

My gut?  Be the team waiting on the sidelines and take the one road game.

In other (related) news …
My favorite player, Troy Tulowitzki, has been tearing it up lately, with 14 home runs in a 15 game stretch that ended Saturday (he was held without a homer on Sunday).  Tulo had 2 homers in 4 of those games and drove in a stunning 31 games during that stretch.  Hopefully Tulo can kept up the hot hitting down the stretch.

For the first time, President Obama is actually proposing an economic stimulus package which will provide some permanent benefit to the country, and everyone is condemning him. I am a fiscal conservative, so by nature I am opposed to government spending beyond the bare minimum (military, road, ports and courts). Starting three years ago and up until the beginning of September, every “stimulus” was simply spending with no true benefit.

First we bailed out the banks, then the automobile manufacturers. We threw a lot of money at states which resulted in a lot of signs telling us where the money was being spent, even though all of the projects were already underway before the money was approved.

Now for the first time, the President has proposed upgrading the country’s infrastructure. This means new projects on highways, railroads, seaports, airport, bridges and canals. The right claims this will just save the unions and only provide a single year of employment. The left claims that it is a waste to support the oil industry by encouraging more transportation. I feel that the President is correct. Infrastructure programs are beneficial long after the work is complete. Ask your grandparents about trying to get from Chicago to Los Angeles before the interstate system was completed or before jet aircraft and the building of O’Hare and LAX.

I also agree with the President’s decision to visit the Pentagon on September 11. I was shocked to hear that he was not going to ground zero, primarily because all of the news outlets made it sound like he was going golfing or something. The problem was he was not going to New York City, where these reporters are based. The Vice President was there, that should not be considered an insult. If we are to have the President physically attend every major remembrance, he would never have a chance to get anything else done.

Are the losses at ground zero somehow more important than the Pentagon? What about our losses at Pearl Harbor? The Northridge Earthquake? The San Francisco Earthquake of 1900? The Galveston Hurricane of 1901? The Gettysburg battle field? Should the President visit each of these sites on the appropriate anniversary?

He went to the Pentagon. He went to New Orleans. He even picked up a tar ball on the Gulf Coast. What is it that we want him to do? What can he actually do? He has been in office almost two years and New Orleans is still a mess. Does this become his fault?

We as Americans really need to think about what the President’s roll is. He is not a messiah, nor is he a pariah. He is a man, elected to be the executive of our government. He is to enforce the laws passed by congress and guide our foreign affairs. He can be a cheer leader, a consoler, even a lecturer, but he is not a rock star or super hero. I am more that willing to criticize any President’s policies, but to criticize every decision is to make a caricature out of yourself.

I’ve often wondered how staple manufacturers stay in business.  Let’s say you staple three things every week.  That’s roughly 150 staples every year.  That 5000 count box of staples in your drawer?  It will last more than 30 years.  You might use 2-3 boxes in your lifetime.  Even worse, the staple industry is being attacked on all sides.  You can cut staple use by storing documents electronically, duplex printing, and even by storing documents in binders (the binder companies will love to have your business).  With so many factors working to erode their profitability, perhaps the staple companies should be in line for a government bailout.  Do we really want to see fine companies like Swingline teeter on the brink of insolvency?  Not in MY America.

A couple of fine upstanding Americans are planning dueling rallies at the National Mall (not to be confused with the Mall of America) on October 30.  Jon Stewart will kick off the day with a Rally To Restore Sanity.  Toward evening, Stephen Colbert will work to undermine Stewart’s rally with a March to Keep Fear Alive.  Any other time of the year, I would probably lean toward the Rally to Restore Sanity – but a day before Halloween, I have to go with the March to Keep Fear Alive.  (Yes, there actually is a permit request pending with the National Park Service – this is serious business.)

Have you ever wondered why street signs aren’t larger?  You’re driving in an unfamiliar city, trying to find your cousin’s house.  Hey, is that Palmetto Street or Pimento Street?  You confirm that it is Pimento and swerve into the turn lane at the last moment.  Have many of these dangerous swerves (or the more dangerous swerve in / swerve out) are the result of signs that aren’t readable until you’re about two feet away?  Why not double the size of the signs in order to save some lives?

Archaeology Magazine really isn’t getting the hint.  I chastised them publicly for allowing questionable ads to appear in their magazine.  When I received the first renewal request, I wrote “NO” across the renewal slip and included a printed copy of my article in the envelope.  Since then, over a span of about six months, they have sent six more notices.  Apparently they don’t read comments from their subscribers.  I tried to email them my concerns, but the email bounced back.  Last night, I got a call from a third party hired to rope people into renewing.  This was particularly disturbing, because I had never given them my phone number (I never give my phone number to magazines, for the reason of avoiding these sorts of calls).  Sadly, I actually enjoy the content of the magazine.

I’ve mentioned my displeasure with a certain kiosk at my local mall in the past.  I’m not really sure why I haven’t mentioned them by name.  It’s the folks that sell Dead Sea lotion products.  There are currently two locations in the mall.  The employees at one kiosk are pretty civil (I guess they are new).  The employees at the other kiosk are very aggressive, stalking you from one edge of the mall to the other, and refusing to back down even when you tell them you don’t want to be harassed.  Apparently they failed their marketing class – why waste your time on people who obviously hate your company when you could spend that effort trying to attract a different customer?  I now make an effort to walk a half step ahead of my wife when we pass the kiosk, so that they have to deal with me to get to her (they always chase after the women).  We’ve complained a few times to mall management, who have confirmed that this behavior violates their lease.  Yet, somehow, they managed to retain their spot in the mall.  In a down economy and with people already making many purchases over the internet, it seems that malls would want to enhance the shopping experience by removing the unpleasantness.  Interestingly, none of the other businesses in the mall have adopted Dead Sea’s patented harassment brand of marketing.

For the second time in recent years, a divorce threatens to tear apart a team in the National League West.  In 2008, Padres owners John and Becky Moores filed for divorce, and a substantial share of the club was sold as a result.  Now it is the Dodgers caught in the crossfire of a divorce.

Frank and Jamie McCourt (no, not the Frank McCourt who wrote Angela’s Ashes) bought the Dodgers in 2004.  Before she was fired (by her husband) at the end of last season, Jamie McCourt, as CEO of the Dodgers, was the highest ranking female executive in baseball (granted, this is a bit easier to accomplish when you own the team).

With the Dodgers a non-factor in the competitive NL West, the focus of Los Angeles is on the marathon divorce trial.  The trial began on August 30th and will pick up again on Monday after a two week recess.  It is expected that legal fees will total $20 million by the time the case concludes.  This is not going to be an amicable settlement.  Both sides are accusing the other of wrongdoing.  Frank McCourt has accused his wife of cheating with her driver.  On the flip side, Jamie’s lawyer are accusing Frank of legal shenanigans with respect to a post-nuptial agreement the couple signed.  There are six copies of the agreement.  Three of them list the Dodgers as Frank’s separate property, the other three do not (in which case they would be joint property).  Forbes has recently pegged the value of the team at $700 million … so you can understand why the two sides are willing to pony up $20 million for the best lawyers money can buy.

Lots of interesting tidbits about the couple are spilling out.  Perhaps the fact that I found the most interesting is that they employed a hairstylist who worked on their hair five days a week – at a staggering cost of $150,000.  How vain must you be to spend that sort of money on your hair?  I spend $0 on haircuts per year.  Heck, I doubt that Warren Buffett spends $150,000 on haircuts annually.  Or $15,000.  Or $1500.  Probably more than I spend, though.

In other news:

The trial of Andrew Gallo began on Monday.  Gallo is charged in the death of Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart and two others as the result of a fatal auto accident in April of 2009.  Gallo was drunk at the time of the accident (registering a .19 blood alcohol content two hours after the accident) and was driving 66 mph in a 35 mph zone.  Gallo had previously been convicted of DUI and had signed an agreement acknowledging that if he caused a fatal accident while under the influence, he would be charged with murder.  Because of this agreement, Gallo is being charged with 2nd degree murder.

The defense attorney in the case is accusing the DA of overcharging Gallo because Adenhart was a celebrity.  The DA countered by saying that 10 drunk driving cases have been prosecuted as murders since 2008.

Personally, I think it makes perfect sense to charge Gallo with murder.  He was clearly aware of the consequences of his actions, since he had previously been notified that this sort of accident would result in a murder charge against him.  He killed three people, was driving 30 mph above the speed limit, and had a blood alcohol level more than two times the legal limit (again, this was two hours after the accident – the level would have been even higher than the .19 at the time of the accident).  Celebrity victim or not, this is EXACTLY the sort of case that should trigger California’s “DUI as murder” statute.

In closing, I’ll turn this into a short public service announcement.  If you think you have a drinking problem, you’re probably right.  Seek help, either through a doctor or an organization such as Alcoholics Anonymous.  It’s not too late to get help.

Max Monet smiled and pondered the old adage – “it’s an ill wind that blows no good.” The ill wind of this recession had certainly been profitable for Max.

The real estate market had turned sour quickly, with many properties selling for small fractions of their going rate just a year earlier. Max had quickly snapped up two adjacent properties.

Camp Serenity had once been a popular place to get away from the hustle and bustle. The numbers of visitors had fallen off dramatically when urban sprawl brought with it new corporate neighbors.

Hopkins Distributing was one of those neighbors. The warehouse once had trucks coming and going at all hours – providing a steady source of employment for the residents of the town.

When the recession hit, the corporate suits at Hopkins decided that the facility was superfluous and shut it down. It was too late for Camp Serenity – the Hopkins facility had forced it onto life support years ago.

Most observers looked at these properties and saw failure. Max Monet saw potential. He made bids on both properties, and was soon the proud owner.

A couple of months later, Max Monet hit the road on a marketing tour. The product he was selling was Camp Serenity. Camp Serenity was touted as a think tank for the new generation of humanities scholars. Get away from the rat race for a while and focus on your writing, your art, or your research. Participate in seminars in your field of study. No fees were charged for room and board.

In an economy with so many unemployed liberal arts majors, Max would have certainly signed up quite a few prospects – but Max had sweetened the deal. When Camp Serenity was marketed across the region, it had sex appeal. Max had brought his staff with him – the group of men and women who would lead the seminars and serve as resources for the other residents of the camp. They all had graduate degrees, but had been unable to land jobs in their field of study. They were also a remarkably attractive group – almost as if they had been chosen more for their looks than their academic credentials.

And indeed they had been. A large number of people who would have been on the fence about the idea of Camp Serenity under normal circumstances had been putty in the hands of the staff. Heck, they were unemployed anyway – why not escape to Camp Serenity and try to write the great American novel?

There was one small catch to the free room, board, and tuition. Each resident had to do a bit of work-study each day. The residents were served a hot breakfast before heading to the Hopkins building to begin the morning shift at 8 AM. The shift was done at 10 AM, and they were free to focus on their intellectual pursuits until lunchtime.

The afternoon shift began at 1 and finished up by 3, in time for a daily lecture. The residents could attend a lecture in their own subject area, or cross over to learn about a new topic. Not surprisingly, the most attractive staff members attracted the largest crowds. They probably could have read the phone book aloud and still have people coming back every day.

After the lectures and subsequent discussions, there was plenty of time to work on individual intellectual pursuits, small group discussions, or even a nap. By 6 PM, the group reported back to the main hall for supper.

After supper, they headed back to finish off another short shift. The two hour shift ended at 9, and everyone had free time until they decided to go to bed.

The schedule was a bit different on Sunday. No work – just lectures and time for individual study.

Max had been mildly surprised when three residents had secured book deals for novels written entirely within the confines of Camp Serenity. He supposed that it actually was a good environment for intellectual pursuits. Most importantly to Max, though, it was a way to squeeze 36 hours of labor out of people for minimum cost. The barracks cost virtually nothing to maintain, and the fare at the dining hall leaned heavily toward cheap, filling meals, with on occasional steak dinner thrown in to boost morale.

[Editor’s note: although the sentiments of this article remain the same today, please note that the article is from September 2010 and refers to events in that time frame.]

Benjamin Franklin once said, “Certainty? In this world nothing is certain but death and taxes.” As the Bush tax cuts are set to expire and the mid term elections only 2 months away, Congress is scrambling on what to do about the tax cuts.

If the democrats choose to back President Obama’s plan to soak the rich in taxes it would be political suicide. Let’s think about this. Right now we already tax the rich heavily. And who hires people, the rich? Who owns businesses? The rich. Why would taxing them benefit anyone? If they have less coming in, they’re less likely to hire people. With unemployment at record highs, why risk that? Again, if you have less coming in (or more going to the government) you might not only not hire people, but cut positions. And that would cause our unemployment rate to go even higher.

In this current economic climate, how does taxing more, which would cause fewer jobs to be available (or loss of even more jobs) even make sense? Trust me. I’m not rich. I’m not pleading this case for my own pocketbook. It just doesn’t make economic sense to tax the rich at this time. Everyone is already taxed too much. The government takes too much of what is ours. Benjamin Franklin was right.

If the tax breaks are allowed to expire and the rich are taxed more by our government, I hope people let their voices known on election night. Chris Christie said, “Higher taxes is the road to ruin. We must and we will shrink our government, and that means making some tough choices, tightening our belts.” In the current economy everyone has been forced to tighten their belts … why not the government?

If you don’t realize that I’m a big baseball fan, you’re new around here.  I like baseball as much as Evan likes Evernote – and nearly as much as Lazy Man hates Mona Vie.  I subscribe to MLB Extra Innings, get Sports Weekly in my mailbox every week (just for the baseball coverage), and pre-order Ron Shandler’s newest book every year.  I’d say that it borders on an obsession, but I have to be honest with myself – it crossed the threshold many years ago.  To paraphrase the quote from Jerry Maguire, it had me at “play ball”.

As a fan of the Colorado Rockies, I’m acutely aware of the differences between the offensive numbers the Rockies compile at Coors Field versus the numbers they compile on the road.  Although the installation of a humidor several years ago has cut the gap somewhat, the team typically achieves an OPS (on-base-plus-slugging) of somewhere between 100 and 150 points higher at home (the 220 point differential this year is an outlier).  The typical Major League player has an OPS 31 points higher at home – so Coors Field clearly aids the Rockies hitters.

Chipper Jones of the Braves has thrust his own opinion into this issue into the spotlight, suggesting that Carlos Gonzalez’s numbers are not legitimate due to CarGo’s massive home/road splits.  Never mind that Chipper enjoyed a 244 point differential in his 1999 MVP season.  Apparently dramatic splits are OK, as long as they aren’t compiled by a Rockies hitter.

Of course, a couple of things often get ignored.  First, the home/road disparity can be skewed by the unbalanced scheduled.  The Rockies play more games in San Diego’s Petco Park (a pitcher’s paradise) than the Cubs do, for example (this is also why ESPN’s park factors are flawed).  The second is an effect that has been theorized but not proven – that there is a Coors Hangover effect that negatively affects Rockies players on the road.  The gist of this argument is that Rockies hitters get lulled into the flatness of breaking pitches (curve balls, sliders, etc.) at home and are not prepared for the sharper breaks at lower elevations.  A couple of years ago, I analyzed some data that supported this theory.  In 2008, the Rockies hit line drives on 23% of balls they put into play at home, and just 19.6% of balls they put into play on the road – an indication that they are actually making more solid contact at home, rather than simply enjoying the fact that the balls travels further in thin air.  This was an incomplete study, as I did not analyze the splits for other teams.

More importantly, players on the same team are affected differently by the park.  Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies has an OPS 400 points higher at home this year.  Troy Tulowitzki has a more modest 138 point differential.  I struggled to find a comparable player to CarGo – but the most notable lefty who played predominately in the post-humidor era and had some power is Brad Hawpe (Todd Helton and Larry Walker played a lot of games pre-humidor).  Hawpe has a career differential of about 50 points – not much more than the 31 points for the average MLB player.  The home/road splits are all over the chart – without a lot of logic to the distribution.

I have theorized for many years that there are mental, psychological, and social factors that come into play.  Some players will be consistent studs at home, while others will stink it up in front of the home team fans and dazzle on the road.  Why?

Unique aspects of the park – Every park has unique aspects.  The most notable is perhaps the Green Monster in Boston’s Fenway Park.  The left field wall is a stone’s throw from home plate – but looms 37 feet high.  A play who can tailor their swing to hit high fly balls to left field will get homers at home and harmless outs on the road.  It’s not always as easy as flipping a switch when you go on the road – but if this player were traded, they would likely change their swing to remove the uppercut.

A less notable feature of each park is the batter’s eye in center field.  You may notice that there are never any fans sitting in dead center field, and that this area is always a solid color.  This is to provide a visual background that allows that hitter to see the ball after it is pitched (imagine trying to see the balls with fans in the background, wearing a variety of colors).  A player may become accustomed to their park’s hitter’s eye and hit better with it in the background.  The ability to adapt your style to suit the ballpark is a skill, not a fluke – and it’s portable to a new home environment.

Climate – Call it the Favre factor.  Some guys are going to prefer cooler climates while other prefer warmed climates.  The data do exist to analyze climate data (the box score contains the temperature at the start of the game), but I haven’t seen much work on this topic.

Family life – Everyone is happier when they are around loved ones.  I would theorize that players in happy relationships will do well at home, and players in bad relationships (or no relationship) will not do as well.  If a marriage is turning from bliss into hell, I would expect a player’s home/road splits to become more road-favorable.

Dining and Entertainment Options – I like having my favorite restaurants around.  Plop me into the midst of a vegan-leaning area and I would not do well.  A happy belly is a happy ballplayer.  Likewise, a player who enjoys mountain hikes is going to be happier with his home base in Denver and a fan of Broadway shows will enjoy New York.  Put the mountain hike guy in New York City and the Broadway guy in Denver and neither is as happy.

Community involvement – Some players are much more involved in the community than others.  Some players are more like hired guns – coming in to do a job, and then leaving town the day after the season is over.  I would expect the more involved players to do better at home, because they have a good feeling about the city.

Fans – And, of course, the player’s relationship with the fans.  If the fans are vocally supportive of a player, I’d expect the player to out-perform the park factors – although it’s possible that some players could try to hard and do worse because of the fans.

Really, all of this boils down to one thing.  Players who feel more “at home” in their home city should have better splits than a player who is more neutral about the surroundings.

I haven’t had the time to compile an all-inclusive list, nor have I had the time to do any statistical analysis of the theory.  What other factors do you think can affect a player’s home/road splits?