Back On April 15, we launched a Stock Market contest (click link to see insights from the participants) in which a team of Goliaths (personal finance bloggers) were matched up against a team of Davids (people who were not personal finance bloggers). At the end of August, the Dow stood at 9496.281 and had gained average 11.34 points during the course of the contest, making the Davids the favorites.

We skipped the update at the end of September.  In the two months since the  last update, the market pushed back above 10,000 before retreating to finish the end of October at 9712.73.

At the end of the day on April 14th (the 104th day of the year), the Dow was at 7920.18.

At the end of the day on October 31 (the 304th day of the year), the Dow was at 9712.73

This is a gain of 1792.55, or 8.96 points per day. If we assume that the market will contain to gain at exactly the same rate throughout the rest of the year (yes, a ridiculous assumption), the Dow will be at 10258.74 at the end of the year (+ 2338.56 from April 14).

How do our contestants stack up?

TeamPlayerPlayer’s GuessDifference from projection
N/AProjected year end Dow10258.740
DavidPeter Rabbit @ The Soap Boxers9500758.74
No teamKosmo @ The Soap Boxers89991259.74
DavidPhil Ossifer @ The Soap Boxers85001758.74
GoliathTrevor @ Financial Nut85001758.74
DavidBlack Hole8492.481766.26
GoliathHeidi @ Banker Girl84001858.74
GoliathLazy @ Lazy Man and Money82322026.74

I also invited visitors to play along at home. Let’s see how they are doing.

PlayerPlayer’s GuessDifference from projection
Karchy9777481.74
Hilary9500758.74
Jeff78002458.74

Team David remains firmly in the lead at this point.  The rate of growth has slowed a bit, but the market is still trending upward.  With two months remaning in the year, Team Goliath still had a shot, but we would need to see a significant downturn in the market in order to give them the win.

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Kosmo is the founder of The Soap Boxers and writes on a variety of topics. He is also the author of two books. Mountains, Meadows, and Chasms is an anthology of short stories and Sell Yourself Short is a guide for novice short story writers. Both titles are available for the Kindle.

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