The SoapBoxers

Love ya, teammate!

Tim Tebow sparked Tebowmania in 2011.  Despite uneven – and at times very bad – play at the quarterback position, Tebow managed a 7-4 record as a starter and became a much beloved figure in the Mile High City.  Tebow jersey were flying off the shelves, and high school kids everywhere were tebowing.

The amazing flight of Tim Tebow crash landed this week when the Broncos signed future Hall of Famer quarterback Peyton Manning to a contract.  Manning was cut loose by the Indianapolis Colts to avoid payment of a $28 million roster bonus.  After a prolonged recruiting trip, current Hall of Famer and Denver icon John Elway convinced Manning that the place for him to begin his quest for another ring was in Denver.

Naturally, the minute that Manning signed on the dotted line, he became the starting quarterback for the Broncos.  You don’t pay a guy $96 million (over five years) to carry a clipboard.  Suddenly, Manning is The Man and Tebow was relegated to backup duty, perhaps being rotated in for a series once in a while.  Maybe even converted to a halfback to keep his athleticism on the field.

Then the other shoe dropped.  Tebow was being shipped out.  He was traded today to the New York Jets.  The Jets got Tebow and a 7th round pick and the Broncos got a 4th and 6th round pick.

How the mighty have fallen.  The once “great” Tebow was now being valued less than a hundred or so players who will be drafted before the Broncos will be able to draft a player with that 4th round pick.

Does the deal make sense for the Broncos?

I’m not a huge Tebow fan, but this deal makes very little sense to me.  Many people – including me – felt that he was overvalued when the Broncos spent a first round pick on him.  But on the flip side, I definitely think he’s worth more than a 4th rounder plus the 6-for-7 swap.  Really, there’s a player in the 4th round who provides more value to the Broncos than Tim Tebow?

This is Adam Weber.

Without Tebow on the roster, the Broncos are going to be force to acquire a backup quarterback.  They chased Kyle Orton out of town – to give Tebow a wide berth.  Brady Quinn recently signed with KC while the Manning/Tebow sagas played out.  According to NFL.com, the only other QB on Denver’s roster is Adam Weber.  Weber is best known for … actually, nobody really knows who he is.  He may not have existed when I began writing this article.  As for the wisdom of backup up Manning with an inexperience QB – how did that work out for the Colts this year (other than winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes)?

It’s not even about the money – Tebow will make $1.942 million in 2012, $2.266 million in 2013, and $2.590 million in 2014.  Those are bad salaries for a guy who has shown some ability to win games.  Heck, Matt Flynn recently signed a $24 million contract (over three years) on the strength of his performance in ONE game.

Does the deal make sense for the Jets?

Definitely.  They only give up a 4th round pick for Tebow.  At worst, he backs up Mark Sanchez and serves as a capable second string QB.  If Sanchez were to continue to regress, there’s even the chance that the Jets would let Tebow take the team out for a spin and see what he can do with the offense.  Although some are rubbed the wrong way by Tebow’s Christian messages, he’s definitely not the sort of player who is going to make headlines for the wrong reason (Big Ben).

All in all, there’s very little downside here, and a decent amount of upside – especially if Tebow can every figure out how the pass the ball effectively.

Around the NFL: Horse of a different color

I was not able to find a public domain image of Saturday's backside.

Several other Colts may be switching their mounts and also joined the Broncos.  My friend Ray gave me a heads-up that center Jeff Saturday, tight end Dallas Clark,  and running back Joseph Addai are all being mentioned as possible free agent signings by Denver.  If all goes well for Denver, Manning could once again be staring at Saturday’s butt, handing the ball off the Addai, and finding Dallas Clark in the back on the end zone.

Add these cogs into the mix, and the Broncos could easily find themselves in the playoff rodeo once again.

Around the NFL: Saints Brass Lose Halos

The other big new story of the day is the NFL cracking down on the New Orleans Saints for Bountygate.

Suspensions:

• Head coach Sean Payton, entire 2012 season
• GM Mickey Loomis, eight games
• Assistant coach Joe Vitt, six games
• Former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams (now with Rams) suspended indefinitely.  Status to be reviewed after the season.

Other penalties:

• $500,000 fine
• Forfeiture of second round picks in 2012 and 2013

It’s interesting to look at these penalties alongside the penalties for SpyGate.  There were no suspensions for the Patriots, but they were stripped of a first round pick.  So was BountyGate worse, or SpyGate?
 

 

Striking Down With Great Vengeance….

I saw a funny couple of posts on Facebook last night.

One went something along the lines of “Will the Wrath of God hit the Broncos now that his favorite Quarterback has lost the starting job?”

While this may be funny on the surface it really does hit an interesting point. There is Broncos Nation….and then there is Tebow Nation.

The Broncos fans were torn last year as Tebow became the quarterback. Many tried and true Tebow fans proclaimed him as their “football savior” Indicating his college record, his winning spirit, and that “IT” factor that no-one can quite put their finger on…but evidently Tim has “IT” .  “All he does is win” is what the Tebow camp proclaimed.

Naysayers would bring up the same couple of points over and over. He can’t throw the ball at all. He throws it terribly inaccurately and his throwing motion is horrid. With him as quarterback all teams do is load up to stop the run and make him throw the football.

Turns out both groups of fans were right. He really did not throw the ball worth a lick, but he did win games and had six fourth quarter come from behind victories and led the Broncos to the playoffs.

Enter Peyton Manning. He has had career neck problems. He has proven time and time again that he is arguably the best regular season quarterback of all time. He is the consummate field general, calling all the plays at the line of scrimmage and changing them on the fly based on what the defense if giving him. His accuracy over the years and arm strength are without question.

Let the Sound Clips Begin!

Already the arguments are starting with what will become of Tim Tebow? Why did the Broncos of all teams go get Manning after they stated last year Tebow was “their guy”

Current player Willis McGahee and stated on Sirius XM NFL Radio – “Basically, he can really take us to another level,” “We were young and I think those guys got the jitters out of them last year, even though we did go to the playoffs and represented the AFC West. It was a certain something that we were missing. We were missing that general to take charge in tough situations and I think he brings that to the table.”

Former Broncos player, Bill Romanowski told Yahoo Sports Radio – “I don’t see this as a huge positive for the Denver Broncos. I don’t think you can just throw in a Peyton Manning, who to me is still broken down, who is not healthy yet, and think that he is going to be the answer to getting you to a Super Bowl. To me, you had the answer. You just need more talent around a guy like Tim Tebow.”

These are the comments before any “official” announcement has been made. I am sure the comments will continue to roll out of Mile High City in the next few weeks.

Why Didn’t Peyton Go For the Gold?

I personally was thinking that Manning might have went to the west coast and landed with the 49ers. At the end of the day, I think the same thing that makes it appealing to Manning is ultimately the same thing that made it unattractive. Jim Harbaugh.

Harbaugh strikes me as a guy that is ultra-competitive. I get the feeling is very cerebral when it comes to being a tactician on the field. He is intense. He is a former Colts Quarterback. I have the sense likes to be in control.

To me this is a case where Manning and Harbaugh might be too much alike and would ultimately clash in the end game. There is no doubt the Niners would be a prohibitive favorite in the NFC to get to the Super Bowl with Peyton in charge of the huddle. In the end, maybe it was the perception that egos would get in the way.

Un-retiring the 18?

An interesting side note is that the Denver Broncos long ago retired the #18 jersey. It was worn by Frank Tripucka, who also was the first U.S. professional quarterback to throw for over 3000 yards in a season. Tripucka, who is now in his mid-Eighties, has indicated he would be happy to give permission to Manning to sport the long ago retired #18 for the Broncos. “A number is a number!” Frank said. “I’d be honored if he wants to use it. He’s a great quarterback.”

While the Tim Tebow Jersey was the 2nd bestselling NFL jersey last year, it will be interesting to see if the new number 18 in navy and orange will crack the top 10 in jersey sales in 2012. My guess is that he will be miles high up on the list.

Until next time– Stay Classy Toledo, Ohio
 

 

Who Killed Breitbart?  His Heart.

It’s been a week since conservative leader Andrew Breitbart died.  At the time, I asked a friend of mine how long it would be before conspiracy theories started circulating about his death.  It took only a few days before people were saying that the Obama administration had Breitbart whacked.  While it’s fun to spin the theories, sometimes 43 year old men simply die.  My brother was only a bit older when he died due to heart issues.  It happens.

Now, if Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly both turn up dead in the next week, then I’ll agree that we should be taking a long hard look at this.  But until that happens, I’d suggest that Breitbart’s fans celebrate his life rather than trying to indict the president for murder.

The Billionaires Club

Mitt Romney picked up six wins on Super Tuesday, Rick Santorum picked up three, and Newt Gingrich won Georgia (the state he represented in congress).  It’s interesting to note that Santorum and Gingrich each have their own person billionaire funneling tons of money to them via SuperPACs.  This is completely legal.  However, the existence of the SuperPACs means that both can stay in the race even if they aren’t receiving decent fundraising support from anyone else.  In previous years, lack of funding likely would have pushed one of them out of the race by now, leaving the other to go head to head with Mitt Romney.  Head to head with Romney, either of them would have a chance.  But as it stands, they are splitting the non-Romney vote and are coming up short.  Romney can get a plurality in a three candidate race, but would likely have problems gaining a majority in a two candidate race.

Peyton Manning

After 14 years in Indianapolis, the Colts cut Peyton Manning.  The Colts are catching a lot of flak for this move, with many saying that they haven’t been loyal to the player who had built the franchise.

It’s true that Peyton Manning took over a team that sucked and turned it into a great team – largely due to the fact that he’s a stud quarterback.

But bear in mind that the Colts paid Peyton $26.4 million last year – when he didn’t play a down.  He was due to get a $28 million roster bonus if he wasn’t cut.  This isn’t some sort of pro-rated amount that would allow the Colts to wait around a month or two to see how Manning was doing – it was $28 million all at once.  If Manning didn’t play in 2012, this would have meant the Colts has paid $54.4 million for absolutely no on-field production.  Even if money wasn’t an issue, NFL teams are bound by a salary cap, and that sort of a cap hit would make it very hard to maintain a successful team.

If I were Irsay, I’d try to sign Manning to a one year deal with a low base salary and hefty incentives.  If he plays, he makes decent money.  If he doesn’t, then the cost is minimal.

Are the Colts right to go after Andrew Luck in the draft?  Certainly.  Even if Manning were to play this year, at some point soon he’ll be at the end of his career.  There’s no guarantee that the Colts will be able to get a player of Luck’s caliber in a later draft (in fact, it’s very unlikely, as a healthy Manning means a better team and a worse draft pick).  You need to take the bird in the hand.  I also tend to be a fan of having a young QB carry a clipboard for a year or two,  While a handful of recent QB have had success being thrown into the fire, historically, this has burned a lot of teams.

Fresh off the heels of an improbable World Series triumph, fans of the St. Louis Cardinals are forced once again to face an uncertain future – will Albert Pujols return to the Cardinals, or opt for greener pastures elsewhere.

My advice to Pujols would be to stay put in St. Louis.  He’s a beloved figure in the city, in a city that truly appreciates baseball, affiliated with an organization that has surrounded him with enough talents to win two World Series titles in recent year.  At some point, quality of life takes precedence over dollars and cents – and I can’t imagine a situation that would result in a greater quality of life for Pujols.

Where will Pujols land?  My guess is that he will end up with the Cardinals.  There’s too much pressure on the team to sign him.  How much will they spend to keep him?  Here’s a humorous article on that topic from 2010.

If Pujols doesn’t stay in St. Louis, there’s speculation that he could go north on I-55 to the Chicago Cubs – the hated rivals of the Cardinals.  With Theo Epstein now in charge of the Cubs, if wouldn’t be a shock to see them make a splash in free agency.  Or the Milwaukee Brewers might try to grab him to replace Prince Fielder.  (Who is worth more – Pujols or Fielder?)

Of course, don’t count out the New York Yankees.  It’s true that the Yankees already have a high priced first baseman, Mark Teixeira.  However, with Jorge Posada likely not returning, there are some at bats available.  If I were Brian Cashman, I’d sign Pujols primarily as  DH, but then use him at 1B to give Teixeira a day off in the field and 3B when A-Rod’s DHing.  Furthermore, it’s possible that A-Rod could slide over to SS on occasion to give Jeter a rest, and Pujols could play 3B on those days as well.  Maybe Pujols would get 30 games at 1B and 60 at 3B (30 when A-Rod DHs and 30 when A-Rod plays short).  An extravagance to use Pujols in this manner?  Definitely.  But this is the Yankees we’re talking about.

Ryan Fitzpatrick

On the top of people getting a lot of money, the Buffalo Bills signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a six year contract extension worth $59 million.  I’m not going to ridicule this deal on the basis that athletes are overpaid, as I really don’t buy into that philosophy.  However, this particular deal is mind-boggling.

For the record, I like Fitzpatrick.  My wife’s favorite team is the St. Louis Rams, and Fitzpatrick played for the Rams for a few seasons.  However, let’s take a look at his career numbers.  He has completed 59% of his passes and has 59 touchdowns and 48 interceptions.  His career QB rating is 76.3.  Those numbers are serviceable, but hardly worth $10 million per year.  You can’t even look back to his college numbers to predict whether he will be an effective QB for the Bills, because he went to Harvard.  The Ivy League schools are great for academics, but not for athletics.

What are the Bills going?  Rewarding this year’s season, I suppose.  Fitzpatrick is off to a very good start – completing 66% of his passes, with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.  Good start to the year, but let’s not extrapolate such a small sample size.

The NFL and NFLPA said that the new rookie pay scale was designed so that established veterans could earn more than unproven rookies.  That sounds good in theory, but in practice, it means $59 million (6 years) for Fitzpatrick (not to mention Michael Vick’s $100 million contract), while Cam Newton gets $22 million for four years.  While I still need to see more to be convinced that Cam Newton is for real, I can’t imagine any point in time when a team would have valued Ryan Fitzpatrick considerably higher than Newton – but Fitz will be making nearly twice as much.

Of course, this is the same league where a team traded a first round pick (plus a conditional pick that could become a first rounder) to a team with no leverage that was trying to trade a malcontent (Carson Palmer), while at other times you see deals get scrapped because a team doesn’t want to include a fifth round pick – so I get confused as to what teams actually value in the NFL.

49ers Close to Division Title

It’s November 1, which is really early to be talking about clinching.  However, the 49ers could clinch a tie for the division title as early as November 13.  San Francisco is 6-1 and their closest pursuers are the 2-5 Seahawks (the Rams and Cardinals are 1-6).

It’s easy to jump to the conclusion that the 49ers have simply been feasting on a weak division, but this isn’t the case.  They’ve only played one game within the division so far.  Half of the ten games remaining for San Francisco are against NFC West foes – meaning that the 49ers could finish the season with a very impressive record.

Will Manning Return This Season?

There’s a possibility that Peyton Manning could be medically cleared to return this year.  However, the smart decision for the Colts would be to shut him down for the year and have him start anew in 2012.  With an 0-8 record this year, the only way the Colts will get to a playoff game is by purchasing tickets on StubHub.  Why risk a possible setback for a few meaningless games.

Then, too, there is draft position to consider.  Having Manning lead the team to a few late wins could mean that the Colts miss out on next generation franchise QB Andrew Luck.

BCS

Who are you pulling for in the BCS title game?  I’d like to see Oklahoma State vs. Boise State.  Would it receive the worst ratings of any BCS title game in history?  Perhaps.  But *I* would certainly enjoy it.

The big news in the sports world today is Michael’s Vick’s new six year, one hundred million dollar deal with the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles nabbed Vick off the NFL trash heap as a reclamation project after his legal troubles involving dogfighting.  Last season, Vick set career highs with 21 touchdowns and 3018 passing yards, while tossing only 6 interceptions.  The Eagles were sold on Vick enough to trade away former savior Kevin Kolb.

Obviously, Vick’s greatest asset is his ability to scramble.  Vick has surpassed 500 rushing yards in a season on 5 occasions, and has even topped 1000 yards once.  His career rushing average of 7.1 yards per carry is very impressive.  His ability to run also buys him time to find an open receiver.

Unfortunately, those legs are going to get old.  In the last year of that deal, you’re going to be watching a 36 year old Michael Vick who last lost a step or three.  The rushing yards will drop and the number of sacks will climb a bit.  He’ll have to win games with his arms instead of his legs.  Can he do that?  Let’s look at the numbers throughout his career.

* denotes partial year

Let’s look at those TD:INT ratio.  0.67, 2:1, 1.33:1, 1.17:1, 1.15:1, 1.54:1.  Last year, he had a ratio of  3.5:1.  Those aren’t great ratios, and it’s quite possible that the interceptions could climb if Vick’s declining speed forces him to make more throws that he does today.  In spite of his obvious talent, his career high in total passing+rushing yards is the 3694 yards from last season.  Far from being a 4000 yard passer, Vick isn’t even a 4000 yard player.

Worth having on your team?  Certainly.  Worth $16M this year?  Perhaps.  Worth $16M in 2016?  Probably not.  Of course, NFL deals are non-guaranteed, so the Eagles could also cut Vick to shed payroll.

Around the NFL

Peyton Manning has been clear for limited practice.  There’s still a good chance he won’t be available for the season opener on September 11.  The Colts coaxed veteran QB Kerry Collins out of retirement to take the reins if Manning in unable to go.  The existing backups for the Colts did not inspire much confidence.

The Raiders drafted Terrelle Pryor in the third round of the supplemental draft (which means they will forfeit their third round pick in the 2011 draft.  Pryor will not be eligible to play until the sixth week of the season. Is the “born to be bad” Raiders organization the best fit for a guy who ran afoul of NCAA regs? Probably not.

Crittenton Arrested on Murder Charges

Former NBA player Javaris Crittenton was arrested Monday.  Authorities allege that he fatally shot Jullian Jones on August 19.  They also believe that Jones, a mother of four, was not the intended victim, but that Crittenton was trying to get revenge for an earlier robbery.

Crittenton was a one-and-one player at Georgia Tech.  He was drafted 19th overall in the 2007 drafted.  Since then, he has played for three NBA teams (he also signed with a fourth team, the Bobcats, but did not play for them), China’s Zhejiang Guangsha Lions, and most recently the Dakota Wizards of the NBA’s developmental league.  In February of 2010, he was in the midst of a locker room incident involving guns.

All this, and Crittenton is still just 23 years old.

[Editor’s note: Brian from BeBetterNow.org (a self improvement web site) follows up his Drew Brees article last week with an article that discusses the relative merits of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.]

In his recent love-fest article praising Drew Brees, Kosmo made this comment – “Manning will go down as the greatest quarterback of this generation (sorry, Brady, but you’re going to come up short in counting stats, such as passing yards and TDs).”

While Brady will come up short to Manning in passing yards and TDs, Manning currently comes up short in playoff record and championship rings. In addition you could look at Winning Percentage by Quarterbacks (there’s a handy sortable column there.) Tom Brady has the highest percentage in NFL history in winning 77.6% of his games. He is 3 percent better than the next best which is Staubach, who is 3% than a guy named Montana. Brady is 10% better than Manning. The difference there between the two is vast.

Manning also had a number of seasons passing to pro-bowl, possibly Hall of Fame quality receivers in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Most of Brady’s work has been with no big names. He had two seasons with Moss and three with Wes Welker who, as an undrafted free agent, wasn’t exactly known as a great talent before playing with Brady. Finally Brady doesn’t get the advantage of playing half his games in a dome like Manning does… Brady plays in New England where the elements make passing more difficult. You don’t have to look too much futher than the Greatest Show on Turf or the Saints success of late to see that playing a dome is a different game.

When we look at quarterback efficiency (QB Rating), Brady and Manning are neck and neck with Brady having a slight edge. In addition, Brady has 2 of the top 5 best seasons. You may argue that QB rating is the best statistic. I would agree with that. For example, the statistic of touchdowns for quarterbacks is suspect. How many times have you seen a quarterback throw a 50 yard bomb to see the player get tackled on the 1. The next few plays are typically running plays to get the score. Should that quarterback be rated lower than the one whose receiver didn’t get tackle at the 1? It doesn’t make sense. However, the compenents of completion percentage, yards per attempt and interceptions make sense. Some may argue that interceptions can be deceptive as there are bad bounces, but those should even out for all quarterbacks. It shouldn’t be surprising that while Manning has great TD numbers, Brady has the far better interception numbers.

It seems you can get into the Hall two ways. You can be a Dan Marino win great stats (61,000 yards and 420 TDs), but be considered a post-season failure. You can be a Troy Aikman with a very mediocre stats (32,945 yards, 165 TDs, and a 81.6 QB rating) with three Super Bowl rings. I would suggest that Tom Brady is a more complete player at this point with the ability to put up the stats of Manning in any given season combined with 3 Super Bowl rings.