Oct 03, 2012
kosmo - See all 770 of my articles
Every election cycle, we hear about swing states. The majority of states are already decided long before election day – a heavy majority of voters on one side or the other makes it almost impossible for the opposing candidate to win that state’s electoral votes. A handful of states can swuing either way, and ultimately determine the presidential election.
This time around, there is a lot of focus on “swing counties” – tightly contested counties within battleground states. In some cases, the counties have voted for the winners in the vast majority of presidential elections for several decades. The logic seems to be that focuses a lot of resources on these counties will ensure a candidate’s success in November.
This logic, of course, is utter crap.
Let’s use a sports example (just because I love sports). Let’s take a person with average golf ability. Not overly talented, but not an embarrassment, either. I get this golfer a swing coach and have him practice for hours every day. At the end of the year, the golfer has improved his score considerably.
Let’s spell out the analogy:
|Swing coach||Influx of political ads|
|Golf score improvement||Leans more toward your party|
Is everyone still with us?
OK, the golfer used to be average. That is, representative of a broader sample. Now that the golfer is considerably better, one of two things can be true:
- The population as a whole has improved to match our golfer
- The golfer is no longer representative of the broader population
I’d bet that the second case is far more likely. Want to bet against me? I don’t blame you. Why, then, do political strategists think that dumping lots of money into Swing county is going to make Swing State vote for the candidate? What you’ve really accomplished is throwing off the natural dynamics of the county. Where it once was evenly balanced and would ride the prevalent tide the state, it’s now in the middle of an active tug-of-war. The result is that the “swing county” is going to become a worse predictor of the state as a whole – because it’s being exposed to stimuli that the entire state isn’t. Basically, the control sample is being turned into the experimental sample.
There’s a lot of danger in placing too much emphasis on a small portion of the state. While the presidential election is winner-take-all at the state level, that’s not the case at the local level. There are no bonus points for winning a county. If you win 49 states + DC by one vote each and get beaten by 5 million votes in one state, you’ll win an electoral landslide. However, if you win 50 counties by one vote each and lose a single county by 500 votes, you lose the state. Campaigns need to focus their efforts on the states where they can swing the outcome into their favor – not wasting money one states that are in the bag or ones that have no shot at. But once a campaign is actively trying to win a state, every single vote counts the same. Firing up an extra one hundred supporters in your stronghold or getting one hundred to crawl out of the woodwork in your opponent’s stomping ground – the votes count equal.Share this article via email Kosmo is the founder of The Soap Boxers and writes on a variety of topics. Many of his short stories have been collected into Kindle books. Like this site? Subscribe via RSS, Subscribe via Email, or Follow us on Twitter or Facebook. The permanent URL for this article is: