Is Consistency Overrated in Sports?

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You often hear people hold the virtue of “consistency” aloft as the gold standard in sports.  It’s great to know that Joe Star is going to go out and put up the same stellar numbers in every game, right?

Not necessarily.  At some point, we get into diminishing marginal returns of sucky performances.  Let’s say Joe Bad goes out and throws four interceptions and loses two fumbles in a game.  Joe Worse throws seven interceptions and loses four fumbles.  Joe Worse hurt his team a lot more, right?  No, not really.  Joe Bad’s team was almost certain to lose the game with him turning the ball over seven times.  Throwing a couple more interceptions and fumbling two more times might look worse in the stat sheet, but it only affects the chance of winning a small bit.

The same principle comes into play in my favorite sport.  If you haven’t noticed, that sport happens to be baseball.  It makes little difference if a pitcher gives up seven runs or 27.  Unless the game is in Coors Field, it’s an almost certain loss for his team.  The 27 run outing is going to absolutely kill the guy’s ERA, but his team still lost just one game that day. 

Sometimes, you will hear announcers talk about pitchers with similar numbers, but point out (negatively) that one pitcher has a tendency to get his brain bashed every once in a while.  In actuality, this guy is probably the more valuable pitcher.  He might be getting absolutely rocked in 10-20% of his outings, but he’s outperforming the other guy in the other 80-90% of the games in order to have similar season numbers.  It’s important not to miss the forest for the trees.  The single game in which the pitcher took a beating accounts for just 1/162 of the season.  It should not overshadow the rest of his performances.

The takeaway on this?  Don’t dwell on the outliers; look at the entire body of work.

 

THE RESIN BAG

Giants (and ESPN) announcer Jon Miller made a fool of himself by accusing the Colorado Rockies of cheating via ball swapping trickery.  The Rockies have an MLB-approved humidor to keep baseballs at a constant humidity level.  Without the humidor, the balls quickly dry out at the high altitude, resulting in lighter balls that travel further.  The humidor is an attempt to keep a bit of a lid on offense.  (Why don’t all parks have humidors?  I don’t know.  I personally think they should.)  Anyway, Miller suggested that the recent hot streak by the Rockies might be a result of them sneaking non-humidored balls in to the umpire when they needed some offensive help late in games.

There are a few reasons why this isn’t particularly feasible.  First, the umpire rubs down all the balls with mud before the game (to reduce glare from the white surface).  How would the “cheater” balls get re-separated after the rubbing?  Second, what happens if the ball boy gives the ump several “cheater” balls and then the inning ends on the next pitch – the opposition would have the advantage of hitting the “cheater” balls.

But the most damning factor is that many pitchers have said that there is a discernible difference in the way the humidor balls feels as opposed to how a dry ball feels.  Not only is there a difference in the way it feels, but also the weight of the ball.  It might not be enough of a difference for the casual fan to notice, but pitchers are going to notice.

 

LeBron James decided to join Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosch on the Miami Heat.  I wasn’t shocked by the move, but was saddened a bit.  For the last few years, the only reason I have followed the NBA was to see if LeBron could bring a title to his hometown.  I’m not a fan of the style of play, and have been a marginal follower for the past decade. 

The NCAA basketball tournament is going to expand to 68 teams.  Instead of having four play-in games where the winner will play the #1 seed, the last eight at large teams (likely 11 or 12 seeds) will face off against each other for the right to stay alive in the tournament.  I hate this idea, because I think that 64 is the perfect number.  This change is likely to mess up a lot of bracket pools around the country.  Do you start counting games on Tuesday or on Thursday?

18 year old Mike Trout, an Angels farmhand, had a nice weekend.  In the Futures Game over the weekend, he had a single and double and reached twice on errors caused by the defense trying to hurry to beat his speed.  Later, he was promoted from low-A Cedar Rapids to high-A Rancho Cucamonga.  Trout has blazing speed and could have good power by the time he fully develops.  If he can stay in centerfield, he could be an extremely valuable player for years to come.

And speaking of reaching on an error … a batter is credited with an out when he reached on an error.  That’s why Trout was listed as 2 for 4 in the game.  In the same way, a fielder is credited with an assist even if the player he throws the ball to makes an error.  This is a bit weird, as players are being penalized (or rewarded) for things that should have happened.  In the case of the fielder, I don’t have a big problem with it.  But for the batter, I don’t like it, especially when the player forced an error with his speed.  Shouldn’t the batter get some credit, or at worst, simply not get charged with an at bat (as is the case with sacrifices)?

George Steinbrenner passed away at the age of 80 following a heart attack.  The much maligned owner had been in poor health for the past few years.

I’ve Written A Book – What Do I Do Now?

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I was originally brought aboard The Soap Boxers to write articles about writing.  Over the months, my ramblings have been all over the map; politics, science, sports and relationships to name a few.  I have also touched on writing.  To get back to what I was drafted to do, this article is about what to do once you have written your book.

Last year I participated in the National Novel Writing Month (NaNoWriMo.org).  This is a world wide competition to write a novel during the 30 days of November.  The only rules are to get 50,000 words written down as part of a novel within the 30 days.  The rewards are recognition.  I completed the 50,000 words in November, but then spent December and January making the work into a ‘real’ and ‘complete’ novel.  So I had written a book, what do I do now?

The first step after completing your work is to get the book edited.  I have spent the last 5 months revising and update my book.  I have now learned that you really need a professional, non-partisan editor.  I have had 5 people look at the book and now realize that it was 4 people too many.  I chose people close to me to review and edit.  This was not a good idea.  They were either too nice, so as not to hurt my feelings, or tried to rewrite the book to what they wanted.  When being edited you need a tough skin.  You have put a lot of work into this book, it is almost like someone is criticizing your child.  Well I am done with editing, so what is next?

I am lucky in that I know someone who has actually published a book.  You do not have to have a publisher to get your book to market.  If you really want to sell your work, you should look at the major publishers.  If they like your work, they have the advertising and distributing mechanisms in place to sell.  To get published by one of these companies, you have to provide a summary and a chapter (don’t send them your whole book right off the bat, they will not read it).  If you get selected based on that input, they will request the full manuscript.  After that review, they will decide whether of not to offer to publish.  Even then, don’t get too excited.  They will go through an editing process, set up and market plan, all taking many months, before they ever offer you any money.  And remember, if they publish and take on the risk, they own the work along with you.

You can also self publish.  This just means you are doing all of the work.  You have to get an ISBN. You have to get a Library of Congress number.  You have to find the printing and binding house.  You have to market your work, going to book sellers like Barnes & Noble and trying to convince them to sell for you.  This can takes months or even years, and you have to pay up front, so you may never make a profit.

You can also simply distribute your work.  This means no official numbering, so no wide scale professional distribution.  You will be selling on line or on the street corner.  All book stores require an ISBN, even on line book stores.

Now, I do not expect to make a profit any time soon, so I am taking care of the up front costs for identification, but plan on starting sales on line to limit my out of pocket costs.  The identification helps provide copy right protection world wide and provides assurance to my customers that they are getting what they paid for.  The ISBN is specific to a type of publication, so I will have different numbers for the paper back, hard back, large print and electronic versions.  The official site for United States ISBN is www.isbn.org.  The official United States ISBN agency is R. R. Bowker (www.myidentifiers.com).  They charge $125US for a basic kit, and $185US for on line sales assistance.  You can get a package of from other sources such as www.isbn-us.com for $55US for self publishing (listed as independent in the book catalogue), or $129US if you want to have a publishing name (create your own publishing company).

Obtaining a Library of Congress number is only necessary if you are publishing in the United States and intend on distribution through libraries in the United States.  You have to have a publisher (even if you are your own publisher, so create your own publishing company) to get an account.  Once you have an account you can get a pre-assigned number (PCN) that will eventually become the control number(LCCN).  These numbers are controlled by the Library of Congress (http://pcn.loc.gov/). You have to provide a copy of the work for free to the Library of Congress (you will not get this copy back, consider it a gift to the United States government). The good news is that a PCN/LCCN is free.

All of these numbers have specific formats and must be placed on the Copy Right page (generally the back of the cover).  The ISBN also comes with a bar code (for selling/scanning) that you put on the back cover of the book.

Copy right is a completely different beast than ISBN or LCCN in that it is in effect even if you do not apply for it.  By law, your work is copy right as soon as you right it down and date it.  Registering at the copy right office (www.copyright.gov) is only required for legal contests.  It is recommended that you register your copy right as soon as you are ready to publish to make sure no one else sells your work (such as an unscrupulous editor or publisher).  The cost today is $35US for an electronic registration.  You can also have paper registrations, but those take longer and cost more.  I do not see any benefit to these paper applications, unless it is required, such as the design of a new ship hull (not something that should be coming from an author).

So, what do I do next?  I will be spending just about $165US to get ready to publish.  To actually get a book in print will be a bit more.  My novel is 224 pages.  There are plenty of self publishing houses available.  For this example (I still haven’t made my final choice) I am using Morris Publishing (www.morrispublishing.com).  They were the first listing on my search engine.  Based on a 5.5 x 8.5 print and 224 pages, it will cost $5.36US each for a 100 copy buy.  The price per book goes down with more purchased ($1.86US each if I buy 5000).  Of course selling an electronic copy here will be no additional cost.

So my first publication will cost me roughly $700.  Not too bad when considering the cost of other hobbies.  And I do mean hobby.  If you are writing as a profession, get a publisher.  Share the risk, let them sell for you, and get a check periodically.  That is of course if anyone wants to pay to read your work.

Favorite Movie Quotes

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My daughter, age 2 (soon to be 3), seems to have acquired a favorite quote from a TV show.  Last weekend, she started saying “Wait a minute!  coconuts don’t have feet!”  The line, of course, is from the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse episode Goofy’s Coconutty Monkey.  Spoiler alert: Chip and Dale stole the coconuts.

This got me started thinking about my favorite lines from movies.  There’s the old standby – “My Name is Inigo Montoya.  You killed my father.  Prepare to die!” – uttered by Mr. Montoya in The Princess Bride.

My very favorite line from a movie actually requires an explanation.  The quote is this: “Oh.  Dog and a beer.

OK, how many of you know exactly where that comes from?  There’s probably one person out there.  It comes from The Field of Dreams, an all-time favorite movie of mine.  The brilliance isn’t in the line itself.  It’s in the setup.  Prior to this, Ray Kinsella had asked Terence Mann “What do you want?”  Mann had responded “I want them to stop looking to me for answers, begging me to speak again, write again, be a leader. I want them to start thinking for themselves. I want my privacy.”  This is a perfectly fitting response for a reclusive author who hates the spotlight.

Then we see Ray gesture up at a concession stand and he asks “No, I mean, what do you want.”  At this point, the question shifts from something that requires an answer from deep within the soul to something that requires an answer from deep within the stomach – eliciting the request for a hot dog and a beer.  The setup is everything.

What’s your favorite movie line?

Kosmo’s Favorite Fiction Stories

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Today is the 600th article in the history of The Soap Boxers.  Recently, in preparation for the launch of The Victimless Crime and Other Stories, I’ve been looking back at some of my older stories.  I’ve featured 70 fiction stories on The Soap Boxers.   Today, I look back at some of my favorites.

The one that started it all – Although Tina was technically written earlier (years ago), Release Point was the first story written specifically for you, the audience of The Soap Boxers.  It features Jerome Franklin, a baseball prospect who is on the last of his nine lives in baseball and needs to have a breakthrough year.

The one that made a social statement – Most of my stories are simply pieces of fiction with no attempt to make any sort of statement.  The characters may advance their own agendas, but the author is not attempting to make a statement.  Warm Feet is the exception, as it puts a positive spin on the topic of gay marriage.  In spite of the fact that I have no openly gay friends, this issue has become a hot topic for me in recent years.  I expected this to be somewhat controversial, but nobody really had any comments for or against the story.

The freakiest one – A lot of people were freaked out by Tale of the Wolf, but I don’t consider it the freakiest story I’ve written.  That honor goes to Friends for Thanksgiving.  Oh, and I apologize for the second part of Tale of the Wolf – it’s quite weak.

Perseverance against the oddsHeidi and the Shark features a woman battling against a fearsome beast to save her life.  I hammered this out in about 20 minutes after an offhand comment someone made about looking for sharks on their next trip to the beach,

Favorite animal stories – This was a real toss-up.  I’ve written a few stories about animals.  Perhaps my favorite is What Really Killed the Dinosaurs, which puts that silly meteorite theory to rest.  I had a lot of fun with this story.  You’ll note that there is a base at Tulowitz.  The name is derived from that of Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  Toronso is a twist of Toronto.  Look closely at other names and you might see where they came from.  I also had a lot of fun with The Attack, which tells the tale of a family of wolves launching an attack on a henhouse.

Favorite sports story– I’ve written quite a few stories about sports.  I’ve covered basketball, football, bull riding, track, and auto racing.  Most of the sports stories are written about baseball.  Additionally, baseball pops up in the background of many stories where it is not the primary focus.  This is, of course, due to the fact that I’m a huge fan.  My favorite baseball story?  The Rookie.

O. Henry – In recent months, I’ve been working on the technique of putting a surprising twist at the end of stories, in the manner of the great author O. Henry.  My favorite of these stories is the dramatic Second Chances and the humorous The Champion.

Of course, you can peruse all of the stories and pick your favorites.  Or you can purchase PDF versions at the Hyrax Publications store.  Not only do the PDFs provide a more user-friendly interface to the stories, but they’ve been given a second round of proofreading.  Quite a few items are on sale right now.

Long time readers – which of the stories was your favorite?

Phobia

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The alarm clock jarred Calvin Chance from a fitful sleep.  Calvin slapped the snooze button and pulled the blankets over his head.  At 6:22 AM the alarm erupted with noise again, and Calvin had to make a decision.

Calvin decided that he would not work today.  He called the boss and left a message saying that he was sick with the flu.  Calvin turned off the blasted alarm clock and once again used the blankets to shield himself from the outside world.

At the crack of noon, Calvin’s body was suffering an overdose of sleep, and he was thrust unwillingly into consciousness.  He yawned and finally arose from his bed.

First, it was time for a shower.  Calvin pondered the risks.  A surprising number of people died in shower-related accidents each year.  Water was truly the hidden killer.  On this, of all days, Calvin decided that he would forgo the shower.  It simply wasn’t worth the risk.

Calvin’s stomach had begun to growl.  It was time for lunch.  He was really craving a burger from the corner diner.  Calvin gave serious thought to leaving the house in pursuit of lunch.  Finally, he decided it was simply too dangerous.  Driving a car to the diner was essentially inviting an accident to happen.  Calvin was definitely capable of walking the three blocks, but that would mean crossing a busy intersection.  How could he be sure that a car wouldn’t run a red light and send him hurtling toward Saint Peter at the pearly gates?  No thank you.  Calvin would be staying home for lunch today.

Calvin wondered if perhaps he should have a pizza delivered.  He quickly abandoned this idea as well.  With his luck, the delivery driver would be a psycho who would slice his throat with a pizza cutter.  Calvin double checked to doors to make sure that the deadbolt was engaged.

He quickly ruled out anything that involved the oven.  Ovens were inherently dangerous.  Even if the gas stove didn’t leak and cause an explosion, he was likely to burn himself.  He thought about slicing some cheese, but decided that using a knife would not be a good idea.  Finally, he settled on a jelly sandwich.  He spooned the grape goop onto a slice of bread and took very small bites to minimize the risk of choking.

After lunch, Calvin decided that he would read one of the books that had been gathering dust on the shelf.  A moment later, he realized the danger that paper cuts could cause.  He could easily slice a vein on one of the sharp pages and bleed to death before anyone found him.  He turned to the television for a moment, before realizing the dangers of an electrical device.  His whole house was a death trap.  Calvin gathered up his blankets and pillow and barricaded himself into the safe room in the middle of the house.  Truly, this was a place for him to wait until the danger had passed.  Friday the 13th was not something to be trifled with.

Calvin huddled in the corner for hours, afraid to make any sudden moves, lest he pull a ligament and become disabled.  As night fell, he realized that the game would be on soon.  He decided to take a gamble.  Calvin slowly made his way to the corner, where a small battery operated radio sat.  He turned the station to 850 AM and waited for the game to begin.

A few minutes later, the station noted the passage of the hour.  “The time is 7:00 PM on Thursday the 12th of August.”

Separation of Church and State

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I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the republic for which it stands, one nation under God, indivisible with liberty and justice for all.

Those 31 words are filled with both patriotism and controversy.  I’m sure that when the Pledge of Allegiance was originally written by Francis Bellamy (a preacher) he would never have thought so much controversy would surround his passage.  Interestingly enough, the “controversial” words (under God) were not added until 1954.  (The original writing was completed in 1892)

The argument stems from the concept of separation of church and state.  The Constitution in the 1st Amendment reads:

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

The religion portion of the 1st Amendment has become known to us as the separation of church and state.  When I closely read the Amendment, I have a different opinion than what I did ten minutes ago.  It doesn’t say anything about not being able to mention God which was a big portion of what our founding fathers based our ideals on.  It doesn’t say that we shouldn’t display any historical items that relate back to our patriotic history.  It certainly doesn’t say that Christians (or Jews, or whatever religion) are barred from expressing their religion publicly.  In fact, I tend to believe that it means just the opposite.

The last couple of weeks I’ve read a lot about a Massachusetts school banning the recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance.  The principal indicated that it was because they have a diverse group of students and he wanted to be respectful of that.  Rather than allowing the majority of the students to uphold an American tradition, Mr. Skidmore is catering to a small minority of his students by taking away the rights of the majority.  Why not just tell the few that may choose not to participate to NOT PARTICIPATE?  There were over 700 students that signed a petition asking that the Pledge of Allegiance be allowed in this school.  The school also received letters of support for the Pledge of Allegiance from Senator John Kerry and Senator Joe Liebermann.  (Neither of these Senators has a Republican R behind their name FYI).

On March 11, 2010 the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals made a ruling about the phrase “In God We Trust” as printed on our currency. (http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2010/03/11/06-16344.pdf)

 This court has two locations, one in San Francisco, CA and the other in Pasadena, CA.  This court is located in the heart of the land of fruits and nuts—“Liberal Land, USA”.  However, this court can even see the common sense and returned an opinion that said two things:

  1. The plaintiff (a US citizen that happens to be an atheist) has no standing to sue the government over the phrase.
  2. The phrase “In God We Trust” is not a violation of the Constitution because it is a “National Motto”.  The ruling had previously been made in Aronow vs. United States (Aronow v. United States,” 432 F.2d 242 (1970)) that read: “It is quite obvious that the national motto and the slogan on coinage and currency (In God We Trust) has nothing whatsoever to do with the establishment of a religion.  Its use is of patriotic or ceremonial character and bears no true resemblance to a governmental sponsorship of a religious exercise.”

http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2010/03/11/06-16344.pdf

My opinion is much simpler.  If you don’t like what is printed on US money, don’t use it.  If you don’t want to say the Pledge, don’t say it.  However, we’ve become a country of wimps more concerned with the feelings of the minority.  Rather than offend the few we take away rights of the many.  Why?  All in the name of being PC. 

However, we can’t forget our heritage or where we came from.  Why would we give up the values that our country was built on?  We may not have the perfect country, but we’re by far the best one that exists.  Why do liberals keep trying to give up our traditions and values for those from other countries?  Our ancestors came here to get away from other country’s values.  We can keep our values and traditions while allowing others to live here.  I don’t think that if we moved to France, Australia or Afghanistan they would stop flying their flag, stop singing their national anthem or make any religious changes to accommodate our believes and traditions.  Be proud and be an American—a patriotic flag loving American. 

We are still:

  •  “one nation under God” and
  • “in God we trust”

Squeaky…

Fiction Update

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I haven’t released a volume of my fiction since January.  With two little ones at home now, it has been more difficult to make progress on the longer story that I try to include as a bonus.  However, I have been making progress lately, and should be ready to deliver a new volume later this month or in early August.  I’m pushing for late July.

Instead of the naming convention I have used in the past (The Fiction of Kosmo: Volume X), this volume will be titled The Victimless Crime and Other Stories.  Not surprisingly, the main story will be The Victimless Crime.  I’ve had a lot of ideas for the centerpiece of the edition before settling on this.  Some of the other ideas may very well make their way into the centerpiece of a future edition.  At the beginning of this story, police are interviewing a man they believe witnessed a crime.  The witness misunderstands the situation and confesses to a murder.  The rest of the story chronicles the efforts of the police department to piece together the crime.  In an effort to be as true to life as possible, I have engaged the services of a former law enforcement officer to serve as a technical consultant.  His assistance has been very valuable so far.

Of course, I’ll also bundle a bunch of other stories with The Victimless Crime.  At this point, twenty six other stories will be included.  The shorter stories have all appeared on The Soap Boxers, but their inclusion in the PDF allows you easier access to them – not to mention the fact that I have proofread them a second time.  The final version will likely have at least 30 stories (including The Victimless Crime).  How long?  I think we’ll be look at 100 pages and around 30,000 words.

I’m also going to make an effort to simultaneously launch the audio version of The Victimless Crime.  There will be three different purchase options –  The PDF eBook, An MP3 Audio book narrated by Kosmo (just The Victimless Crime, not the other stories), and a combination edition that may include a small bonus.  What’s that bonus?  Kosmo doing a very short stand-up comedy routine.  I’m not guaranteeing this, but it’s a strong possibility.

I’m still working on the pricing.  As usual, I’ll try to keep prices low enough for anyone to afford.  Also as usual, regular readers and RSS subscribers will get a discount on the basic edition.

This is the fourth volume of fiction I have released. The combined word count will be around 80,000 words.  This should go a long way toward quelling any doubts I might have about my ability to write a novel.  Essentially, I have created a novel-length work – I’ve just done it one story at a time.

The audio book edition of The Cell Window continues to get good reviews.  If you haven’t bought it yet, purchase it today.  I’ll happily refund your money if you’re not satisfied.

All Stars and Hot Dogs

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Hot Dog

Joey Chestnut defended his title at the Nathan’s Famous hot dog contest over the weekend – but he was overshadowed by the actions of former champion Takeru Kobayashi.  Kobayashi slipped past security and on to the stage following the contest.  He was arrested for trespassing, disorderly conduct, resisting arrest, and obstruction of governmental administration (yeah, I have no clue what this last one is).  He was released after a night in jail and faces a hearing today.

What’s at the heart of this issue?  A contract.  Partipants at the contest must sign contracts witg Major League Eating.  This contract prevents the eaters from participating in contests not sanctioned by MLE.  MLE says that this is to protect sponsors.  Pepto Bismol is a sponsor of the Nathan’s contest.  If the contestants were to compete in a Tums-sponsored even on the 3rd (or 5th) this would dilute the value of the sponsorship.  Kobayashi insists that he just wants the freedom to participate wherever he wants.

The solution to this seems pretty straightforward – allow for a sponsor’s exemption.  If all the sponsors for an event agree to allow a non-member to compete, then MLE would waive the requirement.  This isn’t a completely foreign concept – the PGA and LPGA golf tours have sponsor’s exemptions for tournaments.

I’ve always been a bit fan of Kobayashi’s, but I was very disappointed to see him stoop to this level.  I hope that he and MLE can reach an agreement at some point.

All Stars

The Major League Baseball All Star Game will be played next Tuesday night.  Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez was named to the team.  Jimenez was rocked for 7 runs against the Giants on Saturday, but escaped with a no-decision and currently stands with a record of 14-1.  Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki was named to his first All Star game, but will be unable to played due to a broken wrist.  Rockies outfielder Carlos “Car Bomb” Gonzalez is on the “Final Man” ballot.  Vote for him, please …

Matt Holliday (formerly of the Rockies and currently with the Cardinals) was named to the National League team, to the surprise of ESPN, who said “One surprising pick was St. Louis’ Matt Holliday. In the first year of a seven-year, $120 million deal, Holliday is batting .209 with runners in scoring position and has 39 RBIs — fourth-best on the team.

It’s a shame that the dominant provider of sports entertainment would make such a gaffe.  First of all, RBI has long been consider a poor way to judge the value of a player.  The statistic is heavily influenced by the players hitting in front of the batter.  If they don’t get on base, he can’t drive them, in.  The batting average for runners in scoring position hasn’t been ridiculed as much as RBI, but many observer feel that that “clutch hitting” is much more rooted in luck than skill. 

What, then, would I suggest using?  Maybe something like Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  WAR measures a player’s offensive and defensive value, adjusting for their positon and for the value a replacement-level player could provide  (get more info on WAR here).  Where does Holliday rank amongst National League outfielders in WAR?  Yep – first.

Why Are We Giving Up on Space Exploration?

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I need to preface this article with a disclosure. In the 1980s, I was a cooperative engineer with NASA at the Johnson Space center. After graduating with a degree in Aerospace Engineering, I got a job with one of the companies supporting NASA. I supported both the Space Station and Space Shuttle programs for a total of 12 years. I personally know many of the astronauts, some retired, some still flying missions. In 1995, I transferred within my company, both for career opportunity and finding a safer place to raise my children.

With this in mind, my reaction to the plan to ground the Space Shuttle fleet with no replacement is somewhere between saddened and irate. We, the United States of America, the only country to have walked on the moon, are going to be dependent on the former Soviet Union to have a manned presence in space. What is most annoying is the path that we took to get to this state.

I worked directly on the Space Station plan that was presented to Casper Weinberger, the Secretary of Defense under President Reagan. This plan eventually became know as Space Station Freedom. Through a series of congressional mandates, the cost of this plan grew from 8 Billion dollars to 16 Billion dollars. These mandates included; include our NATO partners, increase the content from Canada and Japan, include Russia, reduce the cost to our European allies, spread the construction to more states, increase the scale and finally, explain the cost inflation.

My frustration with this chain of events is that the administrators at NASA could not speak the truth in front of congress. The reason the cost grew as much as they did was because of congress changing the rules on an annual basis. Sure there was some scope creep due to the complexity of the mission, but a majority of the costs came from redirection. If the NASA administrators had challenged congress, they would have lost funding.

As all of this was going on, the idea that the shuttle fleet was aging and need replace was ignored. The shuttles were planned to last 25 years with 100 missions each. The original fleet was planned to be 4 shuttles, this was accomplished by using Challenger which was not the 1970s plan. We have built 5 flying shuttles, which should equate to 500 missions. The fifth shuttle was delivered in 1990 (first flight 1992) which should have equated to an end of service of 2015. Of course by this 25 year standard, only Endeavor should still be flying today.

NASA never achieved the 4 flights per year per vehicle. The cost performance was also never met. They did exceed the 50 flights before an accident predicted in the early 1970. But beyond these measures, NASA also did not succeed in getting approval for planned replacement, and now the fleet is retiring with no follow on in the near future.

We now have a future where our astronauts are lifted to space in 1960 technology from our former opponent in the space race. A future where a NASA administrator has to say that cutting the budget and removing missions helps the agency to grow and achieve their goals.

There was a time when the United States space program was the cutting edge of technology. As the years passed and the building filled with regulations, that cutting edge was left behind. NASA now used developed technology rather than driving technology. This may be lower risk, but with that comes lower achievement and eventually complacency. Where once men were walking on the moon, now we sit and watch launch pads molder. I wasn’t even there during the hay day. My tenure seems to have been the beginning of the end.

Many will say that depleting our manned space effort will save budget. As a fiscal conservative, I should agree. The pay back on this investment has been so great that I must disagree. The NASA budget is less each year than what the Defense Department “looses”. It is appalling to me that as a nation, we can approve of $1 trillion to bail out failed businesses, with no return, but we cannot find $1 billion to fund an agency that develops and proves technologies that employ hundreds of thousands nation wide. I must ask, where are our priorities? How did we get to this place? I certainly hope that my grand children can watch our nation achieve as I did when I was young. I fear that they will not believe me when I tell them I saw men walking on the moon.

Why The 1st Amendment Doesn’t Protect Westboro Baptist Church

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[Update: on March 2, The Supreme Court ruled 8-1 in favor of Phelphs (Westboro’s pastor).  This particular article was written in July of 2010.  An article relating to the SCOTUS ruling will appear on The Soap Boxers in the coming days.]

The Westboro Baptist Church (which has no ties to mainstream Baptist churches) is an organization which spends its time spreading hatred.  The group has gained much of their notoriety for protesting at the funerals of soldiers who have died fighting for their country.  The protesters carry anti-gay signs, which tends to cause a bit of confusion.  A while ago, my wife asked me what the connecion was – since the soldiers, in almost every circumstance, are NOT gay.

Her mistake was trying to apply logic to a situation where none exists.  WBC claims that dead soldiers are God’s punishment for the country’s tolerance of gays.  As someone who is a proponent of equal rights for all, the assertion that the US is tolerant of gays seems to be not particularly accurate.  Certainly, we are not as tolerant as many of our European allies.

This issue has caused me quite a lot of internal conflict.  I am a firm believer that free speech is a very important personal freedom.  However, I also believe that one person’s expression of free speech should not infringe on the rights of another.  While the right to mourn in peace is not granted by the Constitution, it IS granted by the concept of “being a human being.”

I have even gone so far as to wonder if perhaps the 1st Amendment was in need of some revision.  While I believe that the Constitution is a very important document, I also believe that the founders would have wanted this to be more of a “living” document than it has become.  What’s my evidence of this?  The fact that they made ten changes (The Bill of Rights) before the ink was even dry.  223 years later, the total number of amendments stands at just 27 (and the purpose of the 21st was simply to repeal the 18th).

After a bit of searching, I now realize that we don’t need to change the constitution to prevent hate mongers from using it as a shield for their speech.  There is already a restriction in place.  In 1942, in the case of Chaplinsky vs. New Hampshire, the United Stated Supreme court unanimously ruled that this sort of speech is not protected.

There are certain well-defined and narrowly limited classes of speech, the prevention and punishment of which have never been thought to raise any constitutional problem. These include the lewd and obscene, the profane, the libelous, and the insulting or “fighting words” those which by their very utterance inflict injury or tend to incite an immediate breach of the peace. It has been well observed that such utterances are no essential part of any exposition of ideas, and are of such slight social value as a step to truth that any benefit that may be derived from them is clearly outweighed by the social interest in order and morality.

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Chaplinksy is going to get another test soon.  WBC protestors were present at the 2006 funeral of Marine Lance Corporal Matthew A. Snyder.  Three months after the funeral, the family sued for defamation, invasion of privacy, and intentional infliction of emotional distress.  A jury ruled against WBC and awarded $10.9 million in damages.  In 2009, an appeals court ruled that the WBC’s action were protected by the first amendment and ordered the plaintiff (the dead soldier’s father) to pay WBC’s attorney fees ($16,000).

Not surprisingly, many people have lined up behind the Snyder family.  Political commentator Bill O’Reilly has offered to pick up the tab, and thousands of others have pledge donations.

The US Supreme Court has granted certiorari to the case of Snyder vs. Phelps (Fred Phelps is the head of WBC) and the case will be on the docket when the Court convenes in the fall.

The list of people filing amicus (“friends of the court”) briefs is a who’s who of political bigwigs, including 43 US Senators and the Attorneys General of all but two states (Maine and Virginia).  It is my hope that the Court will rule in favor of the Snyder family and further clarify and reinforce the thoughts first addressed by Chaplinsky.

While we wait for the decision of the Court, the Patriot Guard Riders are not standing idly by.  Members of this motorcycle organization gather at the funerals of veterans (at the request of the family) and rev their engines in an effort to drown out the protestors.

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