The SoapBoxers

Some exciting things are around the corner.

I’ve approached a couple of folks to write periodic guest articles for the blog.  I don’t have have a firm schedule on how often these will appear, but I think they will add an interesting spice to the blog.  These guys are good writers, and I think you will enjoy their work.

I have also contacted several more people about writing “a day in the life” articles.  I have received some positive responses, so hopefully you will be seeing some interesting insights into other careers in the near future.

Bob Morris yawned and took a bite out of his grape jelly donut. It had been sitting on his desk since morning, and it was stale. Bob had barely made it to his desk when the call came in. A hiker had stumbled across two bodies in the woods. Bob had been at the scene all day, and was now buried in paperwork related to the murder/suicide.

Ann Marks was walking briskly toward Bob’s desk; she was clearly agitated about something.

“The ME is still working on the autopsy, but he noticed something immediately,” she said. “Although the stab wounds were made by very similar knives, they were not made by the same knife. “

“There is an imperfection in the blade of the knife we found on the scene,” she continued. “This imperfection is present in the girl’s wound, but not in the man’s”

“What are you saying, Ann? That he stabbed her with one knife, then stabbed himself with a second knife and then tossed it into the woods before he died? That seems rather unlikely.”

“Or perhaps the perp took the knife with him,” she responded.

Bob spit out his coffee. “The WHAT?” he exclaimed. “The guy’s hands were clenched around the bloody knife. It seems pretty unlikely that someone could have planted it there. Obviously he is the perp.”

“Oh, I agree that he killed the girl, Bob. I just don’t think he committed suicide. Doc also thinks the that trajectory of the wound would have been an unlikely path for a self inflicted stabbing.”

“Ah, shit” muttered Bob.  “This one seemed so nice and clean.  Sounds like his partner might have killed him after they stalked and killed the girl.  Sick bastards.  Heck, he probably did the world a favor by killing Hepner.  It hardly seems worth the effort to track him down.”

“The only problem with that, Bob, is that Hepner probably won’t be his last kill.”

“OK, we need to track down all the known associates of this Hepner asshole.  Maybe someone will have an idea who his accomplice might have been.”

“Hepner doesn’t have much of a criminal record, but I’ve also put in a request with the IRS.  The guys have a file on everyone.”

A short while later, Ann’s IRS contact got back to them.  Hepner had been a bit of a drifter – he had lived in eighteen cities in seven states in his life.  The IRS file contained information on a multitude of different employers over the years.  Bob sighed.  This day was about to get even longer.  He split the list with Ann and they began the tedious task of calling each employer to track down people who may have known Hepner, beginning with the most recent.  The progress was slow – Hepner had been a real loner with no close friends.  Many employers had difficulty remembering that he was employed at their business.

Hundreds of miles away, the lion was sharpening his claws and focusing on his next prey – another predator who was about to fall within his grasp.

The rules:
Each player predicts the closing value of the Dow Jones industrial average at the close of day on December 31, 2009. Points are awarded on a 12-10-8-6-4-2-0 basis for being closest to the actual closing value. The score of all players on each team are added together, and the best team score wins.

I will update the contest every month, focusing on the actual rate of Dow rise or fall compared to the guesses. For example, if a player guesses a 850 point increase and the Dow increased 100 points in the first month, they would be on target. This relies on a false assumption that the market will move similarly in each month.

Note: this contest is for entertainment purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

The predictions:

Team Goliath

Team Goliath consists of three people who write blogs related to personal finance.

Trevor of Financial Nut
Why do I choose 8,400?  Though I do not necessarily agree with Keynesian economic theory, I do feel that some of this spending is going to create some jobs and allow for money to be injected back into the economy.  By this time I would imagine that many of the Obama Administration’s plans to deal with all of these “toxic assets” and to create employment in an increasingly dying economy will be in place.  Right now the plans are only being discussed and just barely being implemented.

In addition, recessions in the past haven’t lasted much longer than what we’ve had.  This one is, however, very unique and may be longer.

But at the end of the day, who really knows?! 🙂

Lazy Man of Lazy Man and Money
Although some suggest that much of the recent drop is psychological, I think that much can be explained by the large amounts of credit that were extended over the last 10-15 years. More money in the system allows earnings to rise – which results in a lower P/E ratio – making it easier for buyers to justify higher prices.

We’ll see what happens in a bad economy where the earnings drop not just due to the lack of buyers, but the lack of easy credit.

I do, however, think much of the damage is priced in now. Although I am not a currency expert, I think it will be important to watch the impact of the stimulus package on the dollar in the next 8+ months.

Heidi of Bankergirl brings a bit of sugar and spice to a group filled with snails and puppy dog tails. 
Based on historical data, we have yet to hit the low for this economic cycle. I think that sometime in the second quarter (or possibly early Q3) of 2009, the dow is going to hit its low. It will recover throughout late Q3 and into Q4, but it will land around the low-to-mid 8000 mark.

Hope I’m wrong – my job is much more secure once we are back up to around 10,000.

Team David

Team David consists of three people who have ordinary jobs and do not write about personal finance.

Peter Rabbit is an IT Auditor.
The last few reports on housing and the purchase of durable goods were very encouraging. These are lagging indicators when we enter a recession as well as when we come out of one. This signals to me that the worst may be behind us. By no means are we in a period of growth but we may have stabilized. Basically, I am betting that we have about 4 more days of 500 point gains sprinkled in the next few months. But otherwise you will see a lot of +100 and -100 point days that just pass time and wash each other out.

Phil Ossifer is a computer systems analyst and has recently launched the (not finance) blog Chunga Goes Wild
Stocks WON’T perform like they did over the last 80 years. Unique circumstances of that period are unrepeatable, e.g., post-Industrial Revolutionary growth, outcome from wars, political/demographic changes, etc.

Monetary policy will float us for a while, but also leads us toward a serious, long-term decline. We now have more debt than any nation; we have a negative savings rate – and yet we look to more spending for the answer. Over-consuming and under-producing is not sustainable!

Finally, analysis based on a few known factors like bad mortagages, trade deficits, and economic cycles are short-sighted. We are now in a complex, unpredictable, global system (think: Chaos theory). Cheers!

Black Hole is where logic goes to die.  Fittingly,  he works in human resources.
In the past month, the Dow has been on the incline, and I think it will be up and down (in small variances) throughout the year, but I think towards the end of the year it will climb a little more steadily.  Banks will become more stable than they are now,  and the economy is receiving such a boost monetarily that it will definitely turn around and quicker than other “recessions”. 

Free agent
The Soap Boxers will not be a member of a team, but I will be awarded points on the basis of my finish. Thus, a good showing by TCO can serve as a spoiler for one of the teams. Think of me as the guy in the middle of a game of “keep away”.
I personally believe that much of the recent drop in the market is due to psychological factors. A lot of really good stocks are getting beaten up. When the Dow was hovering around 6500, P/E ratios were at five year lows. This is a time to snap up some solid blue chip stocks at good prices. I think that there will be some slight corrections in the near future, but that we have hit bottom and that the market will turn the corner once spring is in full bloom. The positive energy of spring will improve the mindset of potential investors.

Submit your own guess in the comments sections. Invite your friends to compete against you. I will also track the guesses of commenters in the monthly update.  Only guesses made before April 30 will be included in the monthly updates (sorry, had to make the cutoff somewhere).

Join us tomorrow, as the Casual Observer takes a look at a day in the life of an air traffic controller.  The Walrus will be our guide.

Sadness

The saddest sports story of the week was the death of 22 year old Angels pitch Nick Adenhart at the hands of a repeat offender drunk driver who had a blood alcohol level nearly triple the legal limit, was driving 65 mph in a 35 mph zone, and ran a red light.  Courtney Stewart, driver of the car Adenhart was riding in, and Henry Pearson, a passenger in that car, also died in the accident.  Another passenger in that car, John Wilhite, remains hospitalized.

Announcer Harry Kalas and former pitcher Mark “The Bird” Fidrych also died this week.

Oddness

The strangest sports story was probably the truck driver who stole $43,000 worth of ketchup that was supposed to go to Fenway Park for opening day.  The driver was upset at his employer, and intentionally drove the load to the wrong location.  It turns out that he was on probation, so this little stunt is not going to have a happy ending for him.

NCAAs

Tyler Hansbrough struck a blow for the kids who decided to stay in college four years, bring home a title to North Carolina.  Like him or dislike him, you have to respect his decision to stay in school.  A lot of people are questioning his ability to succeed at the next level.  Only time will tell.  One thing for certain, though, is that he will not fail for lack of effort.

Rockies

Troy Tulowitzki , determined to shake off the negative memory of 2007, belted homers in each of the first two games for the Rockies (and added a third on Saturday).  Tulo is my favorite active player.  Rookie Dexter Fowler hit a lead off homer on Wednesday, the first in a long march toward Rickey Henderson’s record for leadoff home runs.

Baseball

CC Sabathia got shelled in his Yankees debut, reminding many people of his rough start to the 2008 season, allowing 6 runs in 4 1/3 innings.  Sabathia promptly rebounded in his second start, hurling 7 2/3 innings of scoreless ball.  Sabathia has all the talent in the world, but a late season slump would not surprised me.  He has piled up a ton of innings over he last few years, and his body frame can best be described as “Ruthian”.

NFL

The Detroit Lions are on the clock for the NFL draft.  Some experts are saying that they are locked on Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford, but others aren’t sure.  Some believe that there is not a consensus in the Lions front office that Stafford in even the best quarterback in the draft.  This would reflect the thinking around the NFL, where observers are split between Stafford and USC quarterback Mark Sanchez.  I even heard one person suggest that the Lions could let their time run out, which would allow the Rams to jump ahead of them and make their pick.  At that point, the Lions would then make their own pick, which they could then argue was the #2 pick.  Why would they do this?  For financial reason.  #1 picks make substantially more money than #2 picks, and if the Lions are confident that the Rams won’t snap up the guy they way, this could make sense.  It’s a risky move, though, and I don’t see it happening.

For those of you who are paying attention, I am going to swap the news and sports days.  News will be on Mondays, Sports on Tuesday.

Minnesota Senate

I have already lampooned this situation once, but this election continues to be contested.  Al Franken leads Norm Coleman by 312 votes.  Coleman is very likely to appeal to the Minnesota supreme court, and if he loses there, the US Supreme Court (although I’m not sure why the SCOTUS would hear a case that appears to be fundamentally a state issue).

I’m not going to put one party at fault.  If Franken was 312 votes behind, it is likely that he would be following the same steps.  However, as months and possibly years go by as this election is sorted out, Minnesota will be have only one US Senator.  It would be beneficial for the citizens of Minnesota if a quick solution could be hammered out, although I am not sure what that solution would be.

Palin / Johnston

Bristol Palin and Levi Johnston, the father of her child, recently broke up.  Certainly that is unfortunate.  What is even worse is that the Johnstons and Palins have been taking pot shots at each other in the media.  Come on, folks, let’s keep the dirty laundry behind closed doors.

Gay Marriage

Last week, the supreme court in my home state of Iowa struck down a legislative ban on gay marriage.  Iowa is the first state outside of New England to legalize gay marriage.  Republicans in the legislature would like to add a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage (which would invalidate the Court’s opinion that the existing law was unconstitutional).  This is not likely to happen for a while, though.  Such an bill would have to be passed in two consecutive sessions of the legislature before being place on the ballot.  The majority leaders seem to not be interested in pursuing such a course of action.

In Vermont, the legislature legalized gay marriage.  This is the first instance of a legislature, rather than a state court, legalizing gay marriage.  The bill had broad support in the legislature, as they needed to override a gubernatorial veto.

I personally applaud these decision.s  Many people say that this will tear apart the fabric of traditional marriage.  I disagree.  Divorce and domestic violence are the problems that are tearing apart the fabric of traditional marriage.  I have come to believe that sexual orientation is largely a biological issue.  I do not believe that the vast majority of gays choose that orientation.  If it was a matter of choice, why would people choose a path that is filled with so much hatred and so many obstacles?  Recent polls show that public support for gay marriage and civil unions is on the rise; I feel that it is a matter of time before gay marriage is legal in all states (although it may taken a few more decades).

On Thursday, I was fighting a virus and trying to get some much needed sleep.  Thursday morning,  my sleep was disrupted three times by the phone.  The first call was from my dentist’s office, which had not received the message I had left the previous night, informing them that I needed to cancel my appointment.  I was OK with this disruption, as it was a legitimate call.  

The other two disruptions were from telemarketers, and I was not OK with those disruptions.

The first call was from some company promising to lower my credit card interest rate.  I have repeatedly asked these scammers not to call back and told them they are in violation of the “Do Not Call” list.  However, their business must be very profitable and allow them to easily pay the FCC fines, as they continue to call back.  How do I know that they are not affiliated with one of my credit cards?  One time in the past, I asked which bank they were affiliated with.  After evasive answers (“We represent Mastercard and Visa”) they were unable to name a specific issuing bank. 

The next call was from congressman Steve King of Iowa’s 5th congressional district.  Steve’s robocall wanted me to participate in a survey.  I didn’t stay on the line to determine what the survey was actually about.  I have a pretty good guess, though, and if I am correct, it is an issue on which I do not agree with Steve.

The more disturbing aspect of the call, however, is that fact that I am not in Steve’s district.  I am not even close to being in Steve’s district.  I am really not sure why he would waste his resources calling me.  I’m curious how Steve’s constituents would react if they knew that he was using the resources of their district to make annoying telemarketing calls to voters whom he does not represent, instead of focusing those resources on something that could help his district?  I’d bet that some of them would accurately deem this to be wasteful government spending.

Friday featured a lovely call from a lady who seemed quite clueless about the “Do not call” list.  She said that I wasn’t on their list, but that she would add us.  When I clarified that the DNC list was a list maintained by the federal government, she proceeded to treat ME like the idiot, asking what part of her comment I didn’t understand.  My further attempts to educate her were cut off when she hung up.  Seriously, we don’t actually have telemarketers who are unaware of the DNC list, do we?  Not surprisingly, no information was available via call ID.

What can we do about telemarketing calls?  First, I would eliminate the computerized “robocalls”.  Either pay to have someone staff the phone lines (creating jobs) or don’t bother making the call.

Second, force politicians to abide by the “Do Not Call” list, or create some other way to allow voters to opt out of these calls.  Political calls are the worst sort of telemarketing calls; why should they be exempt?

Note that some states have taken positive steps toward these two goals.  More states must follow.

Finally, I am in favor of charging telemarketers a fee for each unsolicited call they make (even those that are not forbidden by the “Do Not Call” list).  This fee would be credited to the account of the phone number that is called.  This would be a nice way to compensate people for the annoyance of the call.  If telemarketers feel that this would make their business unprofitable, then perhaps they could spend some effort targeting their audience more affectively, rather than using a “shotgun” approach.

Today’s edition of Fiction Friday features a short children’s story about Ferdinand the Turtle.

When he was young, Ferdinand the Turtle did not like his name. He was a small turtle, and the name was too big for small turtle. The other turtles made fun of him, because his name was bigger than he was! Ferdinand asked them to call him Ferdie the Turtle for short, but they would not. Everyone called him Ferdinand the Turtle.

Eventually, Ferdinand grew into his name. Ferdinand became a big turtle. In fact, he became king of Turtle Island. Ferdinand was a very good king. His generosity was known far and wide. Everyone on Turtle Island loved Ferdinand.

Ferdinand’s best friend was Bob the Squirrel. When he was very small, Bob had fallen asleep in a packing crate and had been shipped to Turtle Island by accident. Ferdinand quickly befriended the misplaced squirrel. Ferdinand and Bob had lots of fun playing together. They would climb trees, swim, and ride around in Ferdinand’s red wagon.

When Ferdinand became king of Turtle Island, he quickly hired Bob to be his gofer. The greatly confused Bob, who thought that Ferdinand was hiring him as a gopher – and Bob was a squirrel, not a gopher. But the pay was pretty good, and the work was interesting, so Bob the Squirrel who worked as a gofer did not complain.

The residents of Turtle Island are completely free of income taxes. Many tourists visit Turtle Island to see the weekly parades, and a small hotel/motel tax completely supports the government of the island.

Turtle Island has parades every Wednesday. People from everyone around Turtle Nation to see the parades. The schools and factories are all closed on Wednesday so that everyone can see the parade. Lots of candy is thrown out to the little turtles watching the parade.

Rookie Angels pitches Nick Adenhart, 22, was killed in a car accident shortly after midnight on Thursday morning.  Adenhart had pitched six shutout innings on Wednesday night, just hours before the accident.  The car that Adenhart was riding in was hit broadside by a drunk driver who ran a red the light.  The driver, who fled the scene, had a suspended license as a result of a previous drunk driving conviction.

Adenhart had quite a few fans in eastern Iowa because he pitched for the Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2006.  His 10-2 record and 1.95 ERA that year made him understandably popular.  Even after he departed from the Kernels, his achievements would make the local news occasionally – sort of a “local boy makes good” (in spite of the fact that he didn’t grow up around here.

On April 28, 1787, Fletcher Christian led the crew of the HMS Bounty in a mutiny against Captain William Bligh. Bligh and those loyal to him were set adrift on a small boat. Bligh was eventually able to report the mutiny to British authorities.

In an effort to evade the British navy, Christian and eight other crew members, along with some Tahitians who had been kidnapped, settled on the remote Pitcairn Island. After landing on Pitcairn Island, the Bounty was intentionally burned, marooning everyone on this remote island.

Incredibly, Pitcairn Island is still populated by the descendants of the mutineers. The population swelled from twenty seven people who originally landed on the island until the population threatened to outgrow the island in the 1850s (Pitcairn Island is just 1.75 square miles in size). In fact, the entire population moved to relatively close Norfolk Island (only a five week trip by boat). Within a few years, many of these people moved back to Pitcairn Island, and the population grew once again, peaking at 233 in 1937. Today, the population hovers around fifty, as many residents have chosen to emigrate off the island.

Pitcairn Island is as inaccessible as a place can be in this current age. It is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and does not have an airstrip or a harbor that is suitable for ships. Anything that needs to be transferred is transferred via a longboat, which travels from the island to a nearby ship. Visitors from smaller boats visit the island occasionally, as well.

Pitcairn exports honey and handcrafted items. A rather significant segment of the island’s revenue comes from the sale of postage stamps to collectors as well as domain registrations under the .pn top level domain. People can also subscribe to the local newspaper, either online or in print. The printed edition can take a while to arrive. Interestingly, all of the homes on the island have internet access (a single satellite connection that is networked to all the houses).

The stories from Pitcairn are not all happy, of course. There are reports that sexual promiscuity is common and that men engage is sex with very young girls – and that these things have been occurring for a very long period of time. In 2004, seven men from Pitcairn were put on trial for rape and other charges. Six of the men were found guilty. Five of them have subsequently been released to home detention.

So the next time you’re thinking of a trip to a remote location, swing by Pitcairn Island and tell them I sent you!  If you’re trying to get away from the rat race, there are very few options that are better.

Wikipedia was a source for this article.

America’s first family of comedy is being formally recognized by the government.  The Simpsons will be featured on postage stamps.  The stamp design will be unveiled on April 9.

The Simpsons debuted on the Tracy Ulman show in 1987.  The Simpsons broke free as their own TV show in December of 1989 and have won dozens of Emmys and billions of other awards since their debut.  When the show first came out, its irreverent humor received quite a bit of criticism.  It’s funny – if you watch one of the early shows now, it’s often difficult to determine which aspects could have been so offensive.  It’s also cool to watch the older shows to observe the quality of the animation.  The images and voices have improved a lot over the years  – they were fairly rough in the early years.

We didn’t have Fox when I was growing up (just the three networks and Iowa Public Television, since those were the only stations the antenna picked up).  I started seeing the show on a regular basis when I was in college, and I have been a huge fan ever since.  I don’t see a lot of the new episodes, simply because I have really gotten out of the TV habit.  I wasn’t blown away by the movie, although we finally figure out which states border Springfield – Ohio, Nevada, Maine, and Kentucky.

I consider The Simpsons to be a wonderful social commentary on life.  Negative actions typically have negative consequences.  Moe and Mr. Burns, for example, do not have the happiest lives (in fact, when Mr. Burns gets shot, everyone had a motive).  Of course, it’s also hilarious.

The Simpsons also does a great job of parodying others shows and movies.   I can remember one episode in particular.  Grandpa Simpson goes to a church to break up the wedding of the woman he loved.  A couple of years later, I was watching The Graduate (honestly, not terribly impressed) and saw Dustin Hoffman do the exact same thing.  My mind immediately yelled “hey, they ripped that off from The Simpsons.”

D’Oh.  Maybe it was the other way around.

Keep an eye out for these stamps when they come out.  Rarely have we had the opportunity to invest 44 cents more wisely.