The SoapBoxers

Last Week:
Straight Up – 11-9 ATS: 10-10

For the Year:
Straight Up – 62-30 ATS: 46-46

Meh…so so week for me….Some interesting games this week.

Thursday

Nebraska (-2.5) @ Missouri – Pelini has had this on the calendar since the embarrassment in Lincoln last year.  NE 27- Mizz – 10

Saturday

Boston College @ Virginia Tech (-13.5) – VA Tech is hot and cold.  I see the hokey pokey this week.  VA Tech 35- BC 17

Georgia @ Tennessee (-1.5) – Wow….Tennessee is bad in my opinion.  This should be dawgs!  GA- 28- Tenn – 10

Iowa State @ Kansas (-19.5) – Rack Chalk Jayhawk….this one will be ugly.  KU – 42- ISU 14

Alabama (-6.5) @ Ole Miss – Ole Miss still gets too much respect.  Bama is the quietist #3 ranked team ever.  Bama – 31- Ole Miss 21

Wisconsin @ THE Ohio State (-14.5) – Can Ohio State beat anyone by this much….Goodman says NO!.  OH State 22- Wisconsin 19

Oregon (-6.5) @ UCLA – Oregon is back on track!  ORE – 28- UCLA – 20

Baylor @ Oklahoma (-25.5) No Robert Griffith = No chance.  OU – 49- Baylor 20

Stanford (-2.5) @ Oregon State – Stanford is suddenly the emerald jewel of the Pac 10 conference..  Stanford – 21- Ore St 20

Texas Christian (-10.5) @ Air Force – Frogs Rule…I love the Frogs.  TCU – 31- Air Force 20

Florida (-8.5) @ Louisiana State – Wow that is a big number with no Tim Tebow.  LSU – 24- Florida 21

Michigan @ Iowa (-8.5) – I am not drinking the Tate Forcier water just yet but…..Iowa 24- Mich 20

NFL

Cincinatti @ Baltimore (-8.5) – Ravens look to rebound after tough loss last week.  Balt – 29- Cin 20

Washington @ Carolina (-4)  Team with no wins at home a favorite…Jeeesh.  Washington – 20- Carolina – 15

Pittsburgh (-12) @ Detroit – Maybe no Stafford..not like it will matter.  Pitt- 35- Detroit 10

Dallas (-9) @ Kansas City – Wow the Cowboys are not good.  Romo is not good.  Maybe T.O. got out while the gettin’ was good. KC- 21- Dallas 20

Minnesota (-11) @ St Louis.  How do you spell St Louis?  U-G-L-Y.  Minnesota – 35- ST Louis 17

New England (-3.5) @ Denver- Broncos used too much last week to narrowly beat Dallas.  NE is much better.  New England 24- Denver 14

Jacksonville (-4) @ Seattle – Still no Matt Hasselback?  Jacksonville is clicking on all cylinders.  Jax- 21- Seattle 14

New York Jets @ Miami (-1.5) – Is Braylon Edwards the answer for Mark Sanchez?  Are the Jets still stinging after last week.  Nope.  Jets – 24- Miami 20

Colorado Rockies

Can the magic carpet ride continue? Huh – do you really think I’m going to throw my team under the bus? The Rockies dug themselves a huge hole early in the season, and played well enough the rest of the season to be on the cusp of the top record in the National League on Saturday. It didn’t happen, but they controlled their own destiny at that point.

The Rockies aren’t a team of superstars, though. There’s not a 40 homer slugger or a 20 game winner. In fact, there’s only one .300+ hitter – Todd Helton.

The team does have interesting depth, though. When catcher Chris Iannetta was struggling, Yorvit Torrealba provided some productive at bats. 24 year old Ian Stewart grabbed the starting 3B job from Garrett Atkins early in the year and hit 25 homers – but the former All Star Atkins was available as a right handed bat in the lineup. Brad Hawpe, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Seth Smith all logged quality time in the outfield.

On the pitching side, although nobody racked up more than 16 wins, all five starters won at least ten games, and all five also finished above .500.

The post-season is more of a sprint rather than a marathon, though, and the days off between series provide more rest than in the regular season – making depth less important.

Then there’s also the issue of the Phillies having a lefty heavy starting rotation to throw at us. Still, strange things happen in the post-season (remember that grand slame by, of all people, Kaz Matsui? Surely, you remember that, Evan) and I predict that the magic carpet ride does indeed continue! Rocktober redux, Rockies!

Philadelphia Phillies

Is Jamie Moyer a Hall of Famer? Ok, I’m stealing this ridiculous question from an ESPN.com poll earlier in the season. Sadly, half the people that that Moyer either was a HOF caliber player, or could grind his way in. In actuality, even if the septuagenarian (OK, he’s “only” 46) does get the 42 more wins he needs to get to 300, he won’t make it into the Hall of Fame – although he’d be a great candidate for the “Hall of Pretty Good for a Really Long Time and Cashed a Lot of Paychecks Along the Way.”

OK, my actual question. Is Charlie Manuel making a mistake by going with Brad Lidge as the closer? I understand that Lidge has been a fine closer over the course of his career. This year, however, Lidge has been bad, bad, bad. His BEST monthly ERA this year is the 5.91 he posted in July. Righties are hitting him, lefties are hitting him, his walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down. Sure, he had 31 saves, but he also blew 11 save opportunities and was saddled with 8 losses (but, alas, not a single win). Are the bright lights of the post-season really the best environment for him to work out his issues?

St. Louis Cardinals

Are the Cardinals the best team in the National League? Pujols and Holliday are a formidable force in the heart of the lineup. On the pitching side, you could make a case that Adam Wainright and Chris Carpenter (or Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright) should be 1-2 in the Cy Young voting.

You want leadership? How about John Smoltz on the pitching staff. Or manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan in the dugout. You want more supportive fans than the Busch faithful? You’ll be hard pressed to find them. St. Louis is a baseball town and darn proud of it.  My wife came to grips with this realization during a recent trip to St. Louis when she noticed that there were roughly 417 stores selling Cardinals merchandise for every one store selling Rams stuff.

I’d love to see the Rockies in the World Series, but I suspect that the Cardinals will emerge with the pennant.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Are the Dodgers toast? Yeah, stick a fork in them, they’re done. They stumbled to a 31-28 record after July 31 and very nearly coughed up the division title to the Rockies (who had trailed them by 15.5 games back in June).

This really hasn’t been the same team that burst out of the gates and established itself as the best team in baseball early in the season. Their rotation has been a bit in flux, and they’ll run up against Wainright and Carpenter in the first two games on the NLDS. I predict a quick exit for the Dodgers.

Wonder if the Dodgers are kicking themselves for not trading straight up for Jason Bay instead of Manny?  Interesting how Bay seems to get left out of conversations that center around how AL players always get better when they go to the NL – Bay hit 36 homers this year, in his first full season in the AL.

New York Yankees

Will A-Rod finally get the post-season monkey off his back? A-Rod drove in 7 runs in a single inning on Sunday. Certainly a fine achievement, but it wasn’t in the post-season, so it really doesn’t count, huh?

Would you believe me if I told you that A-Rod has put up better career post-season numbers than Derek Jeter?

Well, if you use OPS – a stat that any people swear by – it’s true. A-Rod’s career post-season OPS is .856, Jeter’s is .845. Jeter has more than a few post-season series in which he put up less-than-stellar numbers – but the fact that he has so many post-season plate appearances (563, to just 170 for A-Rod) has simply given him more opportunities to shine – and that’s what the fans remember.

Enough about Jeter, though. Will A-Rod shine this post-season? Sure, why not? He’s a hell of a hitter – the law of averages is bound to swing his way.

AL Central Winner

Do the Tigers or Twins have a shot against the Yankees?

No.

Even if they didn’t have to face a team that won 17 more games than them during the regular season, the scheduling creates a huge disadvantage for them. Unlike one game playoffs in the past, there is no off day in between the one game playoff and the first game of the ALDS. So the team wins the game, jets off to New York, and then awakens to face the New York media before facing off against the Bronx Bombers with a depleted pitching staff?  Yikes.

This seems doubly unfair to the Tigers. They have absolutely no control over the scheduling conflict on Monday (Packers at Vikings on Monday Night Football), yet they suffer the consequences. I realize that the Twins won the right to host the one game playoff, but shouldn’t there be a stipulation that you have the ability to provide a venue on the specified date?

Note: This does, of course, assume that the Yankees choose to start their ALDS series on Wednesday, rather than Thursday. I can’t imagine why they would choose to give their opponents a day to recuperate – I wouldn’t.

Boston Red Sox

Is David Ortiz finished, done, kaput? Seriously, how can you ask this question? Are you still looking at his early season stats? The dude finished with 28 homers, 99 RBI, and within spitting distance of a .800 OPS. Those aren’t the fantastic numbers that we expect from Ortiz, but neither are they the dreadful numbers that we saw early in the year. From May 31 through the end of the season, Ortiz posted an OPS of exactly .900, with 27 homers in 368 at bats. Watch for Big Papi to have a strong post-season.

Angels

Did the Angels disrespect Nick Adenhardt? During the Angels’ celebration of their AL West title, some members of the team sprayed the jersey of Adenhart with champagne and beer. The 22 year old Adenhart was killed by a drunk driver after making his first start in April.

Honestly, it took me a second to even figure out what the fuss was. It was the fact that alcohol was a connection – being used both in the celebration and in the accident. However, I feel that Nick’s teammates were simply trying to include him in the celebration, much as they tried to include his memories in activities all season long.

I can never write more than a few sentences about Adenhart without getting choked up at the sadness surrounding his death. RIP, Nick.

Want more playoff coverage? Check out the SBNation blogs of all the playoff teams.

Rockies

My Colorado Rockies started the season 20-32. They had the second worst record in the National League, trailing only the dreadful Washington Nationals. Heading into Saturday’s game with the Dodgers, the Rockies’ record stood at 92-68. Not only was this the best in franchise history, but it also left the Rockies within striking distance of finishing the regular season with the best record in the National League. They simply need to win the final two games to surge past the Dodgers, claim the National League West title, and sail into the playoffs as the #1 seed.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers halted the six game winning streak of the Rockies on Saturday, handing them the loss that eliminated them from contention for the division title, relegating the Rockies to the role of wild card participant. While this is disappointing for a number of reasons (including the fact that we will not face off against Matt Holliday’s Cardinals in the first round), it is worth noting that the 2007 World Series participant Rockies also qualified as the wild card.

In my quarter century of following baseball, I have now been a fan of five playoffs teams – the 1984 and 1989 Cubs and 1995, 2004, and 2007 Rockies. While this is not a particularly strong track record, it does tend to magnify that magical feeling of the playoffs.

Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has been a catalyst during the Rockies surge. Through June 6, Tulo was batting a lackluster .216 with 5 homers and 16 RBI in 167 at bats (.683 OPS). Since June 7 Tulo has pulled a complete 180 and hit .332 with 27 homers and 76 RBI in 377 at bats (1.038 OPS). In early June, nobody could have guessed that he was going to finish with 30+ homers and 90+ RBI.

AL Central

In the AL Central, the Twins and Tigers were locked in a tight battle going into the final day of the season. The Twins were seven games out of first place on September 7, but a streak of eleven wins in twelve games between 13th and 26th brought them within striking distance of the Tigers.

On Tuesday, they had faced off against Detroit in a double header, with the Tigers protecting a 2 game lead. A sweep of the two games would have pushed the Twins into a tie for the division lead. The Tigers managed to win one of the games, keeping their advantage at two games. A win the next day pushed their advantage to 3 games with just 4 games remaining in the season. This was a nearly insurmountable lead.

Someone neglected to mention this fact to the Twins, who surmounted the lead by beating Detroit in the series finale and taking the first two games in a series against the Royals. Meanwhile, the Tigers lost games to the White Sox on Friday and Saturday. Heading into action on Sunday, the AL Central was dead even. If one team won on Sunday and the other team lost, the winning team would be in the playoffs. If the two teams both won or both lost, they would face off in a one game playoff to determine the division winner.

One game playoffs are typically played the day after the regular season concludes. However, in this case, Minnesota had won their right to host the game (via a coin flip) but there was a scheduling conflict on Monday night – the Vikings and Packers were scheduled to face off in a Monday Night Football game. This would push the game to Tuesday. The extra wrinkle was that their first round playoff opponents – the #1 seed Yankees – would get to decide whether the AL Division Series would begin on Wednesday or Thursday. The prudent move for the Yankees would be to choose Wednesday – forcing the winner of the one game playoff to fly to New York to play a game the next day and eliminating any possibility of rest for the pitching staff.

Of course, Sunday’s results could make this a moot point. So, what happened?

In Detroit, the Tigers jumped out to a 5-0 lead against Chicago and weathered a late White Sox rally to pull out a 5-3 win.  In the Metrodome, Jason Kubel  hit two early three run homers off Royals starter Luke Hochevar en route a 13-4 Twins victory.  The Twins have won 16 of their last 20 games and take that momentum into the one game playoff on Tuesday.  Will Tuesday be the final baseball game in Metrodome history, or will the ‘Dome feature post-season baseball once again?

Last Week:
Straight Up – 12-8 ATS: 11-9

For the Year:
Straight Up – 51-21 ATS: 36-36

Back to level par on the spread picks for the year.  Most of the upsets did not pan out…so I will take a stab at a few more this week.

Thursday

Colorado @ West Virginia (-17.5) – Too many points, Colorado is overmatched but will make it a decent game.  WV- 35- COLO 21

Friday

Pittsburgh (-6.5) @ Louisville – This one scares me for some reason.  Upset special?  Lousiville 24- Pitt 21

Saturday

Michigan @ Michigan State – Mich State feels disrespected.  Go Green!  Misch St 27- Mich 24

Northwestern @ Purdue (-6.5)  – Seems like the boilermakers will go big here.  Purdue 35-  NW – 20

Kansas State @ Iowa State (-3.5)  -eeessh…battle of the bottom of the Big XII North.  IA St 35- K St 17

LSU @ Georgia (-3.5) – How bout dem Dawgs!  GA- 17- LSU 14

Penn State (-6.5) @ Illinois – Penn State still stinging after last week.  JoPa will have em ready to play.  Penn St 30- Illinois 24

Washington @ Notre Dame (-13.5) – Jake Locker only wins big games at home.  ND pads another easy win but closer than you might think.  ND – 28- Wash -24

North Carolina State (-1.5) @ Wake Forest  – Wake has to do it sometime for me.  WF- 21- NC ST – 21

USC (-6.5) @ California – Antoher intriguing matchup.  Is USC overated?  Is Cal underated?  USC – 28 – Cal 21

Oklahoma (-7.5) @ Miami – Too Many points..Miami in a close one.  They are a different team at home.  The U – 28- OU 24

NFL

Detroit @ Chicago (-10)  Big spread for the Bears but they will harras Stafford early and often.  Bears – 28 – Lions 17

Tennessee (-3) @ Jacksonville – Who thought these teams would have just one combined win between the both of them.  Tenneseee 17- J-ville 14

Baltimore (-1.5) @ New England – The Ravens are the REAL DEAL – Balt – 24- NE 21

Dallas (-3) @ Denver- Cowboys still have not played a complete game..until this week.  Cowboys – 35- Denver 14

Cincinatti (-6) @ Cleveland – Derek Anderson is the savior for the Browns.  CLE – 24- CIN 21

New York Jets @ New Orleans (-7) Match up of the week.  Blitzing won’t frustrate Brees.  Saints 35- Jets 17

St Louis @ San Francisco (-10)  Wow big number..will Frank Gore Play?  Rams cover but lose.  SF- 28 – STL 20

San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-6)  This is a fishy number to me…superbowl hangover?  Pitt 21- SD – 17

Green Bay @ Minnesota (-3.5)  The one we have all been waiting for.  This one should go down to the wire.  Green Bay 21- MN 20

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For fear of talking too much about the University of Nebraska Football team, I have abstained from writing articles about them this college football season … until now.

One of the signs at the Memorial Stadium reads: Through these gates pass the greatest fans in College football.  Not many who have been to Lincoln for a game since 1962 would argue that fact.

A very remarkable event took place in Lincoln, Nebraska this past Saturday.  The Nebraska Cornhuskers hosted their 300th consecutive sell out football game.

To just about everyone outside of Nebraska, this seems like a whole lot to do about nothing.  I mean what the hell is there to do in Nebraska anyway other than on football Saturdays?  It is a boring state to drive through on Interstate 80, not a lot of people live there … they have the only Unicameral legislature in the country … so what is the big deal?

Nebraska Football is one common thread that brings the entire state an identity.  On the National scene, people from all over the U.S. recognize “Nebraska” and “Cornhusker Football” as one and the same entity.  It is truly something that the people of Nebraska take great pride in.

It all started in 1962 … and not at the beginning of the season.  The upstart Cornhuskers under then first year head coach Bob Devaney sold out Memorial Stadium and promptly were beaten by the Missouri Tigers.  But before he was done, Devaney had built a national powerhouse of college football.  A perennial winner.  He won two National titles, and Tom Osborne would later add three in four years.

Next closest on the sell out list … The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame, but they are about 15 sold out years behind as their current streak stands at 207 … that helps to put it into context.

The Cornhusker faithful endured some harsh times of late in what the locals call “The Bill Callahan Era”.  The first non-bowl season in a couple generations.  The first losing season since, well … Bob Devaney came to town.

But the people still came … (insert your voiceover of James Earl Jones in Field Of Dreams here …)

People will come Ray, They’ll come to Lincoln for reasons they can’t even fathom. They’ll come into Memorial Stadium, not knowing for sure why they’re doing it. They arrive looking for the Huskers, all as innocent as children, longing for the past. Of course, we won’t mind if you look around, buy a Fairbury Brand Hot Dog or a Runza you’ll say. It’s only $4 per person. They’ll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and Valentino’s pizza they lack … And they’ll walk up to the bleachers and sit in their short sleeves on a perfect fall afternoon. They’ll find they have reserved seats somewhere in the South end zone where they sat when they were students, and cheered their heroes. And they’ll watch the game, and it’ll be as if they’d dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick, they’ll have to brush them away from their faces … People will come, Ray … The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been the Cornhuskers. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers; it has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But the Cornhuskers have marked the time. This field, this game, is a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good, and it could be again. Ohhhh, people will come, Ray. People will most definitely come …

Congratulations Nebraska on truly a remarkable achievement. Not the victory, but the action; Not the goal, but the game; In the deed, the glory.

Last Week:
Straight Up – 13-7 ATS: 10-10

For the Year:
Straight Up – 39-13 ATS: 25-27

 A decent week for Johnny G last weekend, I need the worm to turn on the ATS picks.  Thanks to Kosmo for filling in with a sports article on Monday as I had to head out of town for work …. to parts unknown to wireless internet providers …

 Here we go for this week

 College

Thursday

Ole Miss (-4.5) @ South Carolina – Nutt or Spurrier … it is that easy.  SC – 24- Ole Miss 21

Saturday

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (-2.5) – The Wreck needs a “W” – GT – 24- NC 21

Michigan State @ Wisconsin (-2.5)- We don’t need no stinking badges … Mich St – 27- Wisc 21

California (-7.5) @ Oregon – Oregon is just really not good at all – California 35- OR 21

Miami (FL) (-1.5) @ Virginia Tech – Ouch … still hurting from the Huskers loss last week.  I predict a beatdown this week.  The only team more overrated in the top 15 than Va Tech is Ole Miss – Miami 35- Va Tech 14

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Nebraska (-26.5) – Huskers get healthy this week in the 300^th consecutive sell out in Memorial stadium.  Neb- 42- LFAY – 14

Army @ Iowa State (-10.5) – I have a bad feeling for Cyclonoe fans this week.  Army – 24- Ia St 21

Iowa @ Penn State (-10.5) Too Big of a spread here.  Iowa looks great at times and bad at others but … Penn St 35- Iowa 27

Notre Dame (-8.5) @ Purdue – Purdue is not good, thank goodness for that Irish Fans, as the golden domers continue to pad the schedule with easy wins over overrated bigger name weak big 10 teams … wait … wasn’t that also Michigan … nevermind … ND- 35- Purdue 17

Texas Tech @ Houston (-1.5)  I take the overs … dang … I have to pick someone …. ok … Houston 52- Texas Tech 49

NFL

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-14) –  Cleveland is just plain bad….no way around it.  Baltimore 28 – Browns 14

Tennessee (-2.5)@ NY Jets – The Jets crash this week in a close one.  Tennessee – 21 Jets 17

Green Bay (-8.5) @ St. Louis – The Packers lose a tough one last week…St Louis is not a tough one this week.  GB- 30- STL – 17

Atlanta @ New England (-4) –   New England finds a way to get Brady on track this week..and big.  NE – 31- ATL – 24

San Francisco @ Minnesota (-6) – The vikes have not been tested..Gore won’t go for 200+ this week.  MN 28-  SF 17

New Orleans (-6) @ Buffalo – The Saints are the best team in the league through two weeks.  NO 42- Buff 20

Pittsburgh (-4) @ Cincinnati – Pittsburgh is due for a rebound after a tough loss against the Bears last week – Pitt 21-Cin 17

Miami @ San Diego (-6) – San Diego is the better team in my opinion, and Miami is still smarting for letting one get away last week.  SD- 280 Miami – 20

SUNDAY NIGHT–
Indianapolis @ Arizona (pick em)– What an great matchup of quarterbacks.  Arizona has more weapons at receiver right now than the Colts do….AZ- 24- IND 23

MONDAY NIGHT–
Carolina @ Dallas (-9) – Dallas had four turnovers last week and still almost won.  Cowboys get er done this week.  Dal 27- Carolina 21.

Make a note of this event – it is very rare that I am going to defend a player on a rival team.  All stats are prior to Wednesday’s game.

Mark Reynolds of the Diamondbacks is having a great season in an otherwise forgettable year for the Snakes (although he has been struggling quite a bit this month).  He has hit 43 homers, driven in 100 runs, and has a .919 OPS.  He has also struck out 206 times.  Reynolds is the only player in Major League history to strike out 200 times in a season – and this is the second year he has done it.

Reynolds gets some criticism from people who think that the strikeouts are hurting the team, because strikeouts are inherently worse than “productive” outs.  But are they?

Let’s delve into this a bit.  Let’s keep all of Reynolds’ stats the same, except that we’ll turn 100 of his strikeouts into other types of outs.  I’m not including bunts in the mix, because it isn’t likely that the manager would ask Reynolds to bunt.

First, let’s take care of a few basic questions:

• Why aren’t we turning some of the strikeouts into hits?  Because that would affect his batting average.  I’m not trying to ask the question of whether or not Reynolds would contribute more with a .300+ average and 100 strikeouts vs. his current .266 average and 206 strikeouts – clearly he would.  Hits are always better than outs – any sort of outs.  Instead, I am looking at the relative value of a Reynolds with .266 and 106 strikeouts vs. .266 and 206 strikeouts – determining the negative impact of the strikeout itself.
• Why aren’t we taking into account the fact that Reynolds could reach on an error?  Because  this is not statistically significant.  Against a .980 fielding team, this would mean Reynolds reaches on an error an extra two times.  This is easily offset by the extra occurences of double plays and runners being thrown out trying to advance

First, we must realize that not every non-strikeout out is a productive out.

• In 320 of Reynolds’ 621 plate appearances (51.5%) the bases have been empty.  In this situation, it is impossible to advance the runner, since there is no runner.
• In 220 of  Reynolds’ plate appearances (35.4%), there were two outs in the inning.  Regardless of whether you strike out or hit a lazy fly ball to center field, the inning is going to come to an end.

We can’t simply subtract these percentages from 100%, of course.  They double count the situation of 2 outs and the bases empty.  I don’t have the number of plate appearance for this situation (although I am able to derive a boundary of the estimate based on other data).  We’ll estimate the intersection of these two points by multiplying.  This results in an estimate of 18.2% of plate appearances with 2 outs and these bases empty.  I stress that this is an estimate, although it should be fairly close (and, if anything, is slightly higher* than the true result, meaning that productive outs are actually less prevalent that my calculations indicate).

Now we add 51.5 and 35.4 and deduct the intersection of  18.2.  This results in 68.7% of plate appearances where it is impossible for a productive out to exist.  This leaves 31.3% of plate appearances where it is actually possible for an out to advance a baserunner.  In our example of 100 strikeouts that we magically turned into other outs, this would mean 32 opportunities for productive outs.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Reynolds would actually have 32 more productive outs.  Even though the situation makes is possible, he would still need to execute.  An infield fly isn’t going to advance the runner.  Nor will a shallow fly ball.  Only a deep fly ball will advance a baserunner from first to second – because of the short throw to second base.  Runners will also have difficulty advancing from second to third on a fly to left field.  Many ground balls will result in the batter reaching first and the lead runner being retired.  Let’s estimate that Reynolds would be able to make a productive out 40% of the time.  (If you don’t think this is fair, watch a few games and pay attention to how many times a batter is able to advance the runner).  That’s 13 times advancing the runner.

Of course, not all of those runners are going to score.  If the guy batting next makes the third out of the inning, it really doesn’t matter if Reynolds struck out or if he advanced the runner with a fly ball – the runner is still going to be stranded (unless the runner was on third base, of course).  If the next guy hits a homer (or a rally ensues), it’s also academic, as the runner would have scored regardless of whether or not Reynolds advanced him.  Out of those 13 times advancing the runner, perhaps half the time (we’ll round up again to 7) the productive out makes a difference in whether or not a run scores.

So, do the extra strikeouts have a negative impact on the Diamondbacks?  Sure – perhaps 7 runs over the course of the season.  But are they really that much worse than other types of outs?  No, not really.  Not enough to make a productive hitter make a fundamental change to his approach.

*  Math alert – here’s more background at how we arrived at the intersection of the two outs scenario and the bases empty scenario. 

While I don’t have the statistics for the number of plate appearances with two outs and bases empty, we can chip away at this a bit by coming from the opposite direction of plate appearances with runners on base.  We know that Reynold had 95 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position (second and/or third base).  We also know that Reynolds had some number of plate appearances with runners on first (but not second or third) and two outs.  We’ll assign this X.  With our estimate of the two outs, bases empty of 18.2%, we get this equation (35.4% is the percentage of plate appearances with two outs – we subtract the situations where there are base runners in order to determine the percentage of the time when there are not baserunners):

18.2% = 35.4% – (X + 15.3%)

18.2% = 35.4% – 15.3% – X

X = 35.4% – 15.3% – 18.2%

X = 1.9%

Thus, our estimate allows just 1.9% of plate appearance (12 PAs) to be two outs with single runner on first base.  This is almost certainly too low.  If we adjust this upward, it also pushes the 18.2% downward … meaning that the intersection of the two outs occurence and the bases empty occurence is smaller that we have calculated, and that those two numbers (51.5% and 35.4%) are double counting fewer plate apperances than originally thought – meaning that we can carve away more than bats than the 68.7%, resulting in even fewer plate appearances where productive outs are possible.  If this isn’t clear, play around with the math a bit and see what happens when you adjust X upward.

Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals is having a great season.  After teasing us with his potential the last few years, he has turned the corner and blossomed into a bona fide, unquestioned ace.  He leads baseball with a 2.14 ERA.  Batters are hitting just .231 against him, with an anemic OPS of .612.  He is second in the American league with 224 strikeouts (in 210 1/3 innings).  He has walked just 44 batters – resulting in a spectacular strikeout : walk ratio of 5:1.  He has also done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just 11 home runs this year.

Every pitcher has some bumps in the road during the course of the season.  It is very difficult to spot Greinke’s speed bumps this year.  There are really only  two games that would qualify as “bad” – an August 3^rd matchup with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in which Greinke gave up ten hits and three walks in five innings and a June 5^th game against the Blue Jays in which he gave up seven runs (five earned) and nine hits.  There are only two other games in which he gave up more than three earned runs (including a game in which he allowed three homers, but just four runs).  In Greinke’s other 26 starts, he has allowed three or fewer runs.  Greinke also goes deep into games.  He has pitched at least six innings in 26 of his starts, including nine games in which he has pitched eight or more innings.

In short, when Greinke goes to the mound, the Royals can be very confident that he’s going to go six or more innings and allow three or fewer runs.  This means that Greinke puts them in a strong position to win every time he pitches.

What, then, is the problem?

The problem is the fact that the Royals are not winning.  They have the worst record in the American League, with just 59 wins and 87 losses.  The lack of run support has dragged Greinke’s numbers down.  He has just 14 wins and 8 losses, while also racking up no-decisions in many games during which he has pitched great.  After roaring out to a 10-3 start by June 28, he didn’t pick up his 11^th win until August 8^th.  During his six start winless stretch, he posted a 3.65 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 37 innings pitched – great numbers that should have resulted in a much better record than 0-4.  On a team such as the Yankees, Greinke would likely already have 20 wins in the bank, and would be clearing a spot on his mantle for the inevitable Cy Young award.

Greinke’s win total leaves him three behind AL leader CC Sabathia of the Yankees, although Sabathia has an ERA more than a run higher than Greinke’s.  If Sabathia reaches 20 wins, will the Cy Young voters (sports writers) hand him the Cy Young?  Or will they look behind the traditionally “sexy” statistic of wins and vote for the person who has been the most outstanding pitcher in the American League this year – Zack Greinke?

A rough week for Goodman last week as the spread took me behind the woodshed.

Last Week:
Straight Up – 15-2 ATS: 5-12

For the Year:
Straight Up – 26-6 ATS: 15-17

College

Georgia Tech @ Miami (FL) (-4.5) – Two Words…Hurricane Warning. Miami 31 – GT 24

Boise State (-7.5) @ Fresno State – Battle of two states that actually are not states at all. Fresno plays everyone tough but Boise gets the win. Boise St  35 – Fresno St 28

California (-14.5) @ Minnesota – The Golden Bears are good, but not this good on the road. California 31 – Minnesota 21

Louisville @ Kentucky (-13.5) – A much better basketball matchup. Lousiville 24 – Kentucky 21

Tennessee @ Florida (-28.5) – If you ain’t Gator … you’re Gator Bait …. Florida 56 – Tennesee 17

Nebraska @ Virginia Tech (-3.5) – I am not drinking the Kool Aid for the Huskers just yet. Va Tech 28 Nebraska 21

Michigan State @ Notre Dame (-11.5) – Lou Holtz finds a way to make another positive spin on a Notre Dame loss last week … did he go do a pregame speech for them? Notre Dame 35 – Mich St 24

Cincinnati @ Oregon State (-1.5) BearKats get a big road win here. Cincinnati 34 – Ore St 30

Florida State @ Brigham Young (-7.5) – When is the last time Bobby Started 0-2 … I don’t know but it won’t be this year. Florida St – 21 BYU 20

Texas Tech @ Texas (-16.5) – Longhorns get revenge in a big way this year. Texas 42 – Texas Tech 21

NFL

New Orleans @ Philadelphia – (Pick em) No Mcnabb…No chance. Saints 35 – Eagles 28

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3) The Chefs (yes I spelled that correctly), get on track this week. Raiders can’t hold it together outside of Raider Nation.  Kansas City 21 – Oakland 17

Cincinnati @ Green Bay (-9.5) A large spread. An emotional win last week against the Bears. The Bengals cover but lose. GB – 28 Cin 24

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit – Lions get no respect. AP is even faster indoors. Minnesota 35 – Lions 17

New England (-3.5)@ NY Jets – Jets are talking big time about how good they are. New Enland will remind them who is boss. Patriots 35 – Jets 28

Seattle @ San Francisco (-1.5) I like the Seahawks. I like Singletary. This should be a good one. Sea 24 – SF 23

Baltimore @ San Diego (-3) – Last week Flacco looked like Johnny Unitas. San Diego made Jamarcus Russell look like Johnny Unitas. Bad combination. Baltimore 28 – SD 21

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Chicago – The Steelers are just too tough here. The Bears receiving corps needs a LOT of help. Steelers 24 – Bears 14

SUNDAY NIGHT:
NY Giants @ Dallas (-3)– How bout dem Cowboys! They get the Jerrytron the win in the home opener. Dallas 28 – Giants 24

MONDAY NIGHT:
Indianapolis (-3)@ Miami – Even with a depleted receiving group, the Colts are too potent here. Colts 28 – Dolphins 17

Week #1 of the NFL is in the books.  I am writing this prior to the Monday night match-ups, so I will not comment on either of those games here.  Some real interesting items of note in the first week of action:

• New Orleans offense – Who needs defense when you can score at will each and every week.  I realize they were playing the Lions but still a very impressive show by Brees and Company
• Injuries – The Steelers Lose Troy Polamalu for extended time.  The Colts lose their answer to Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, for up to six weeks.  Donovan McNabb cracks some ribs and might miss time.  The Bears Lose Brian Urlacher for possibly the remainder of the season.  What do all of these have in common … they are all on my fantasy football teams.
• Adrian Peterson – A monster opener for AP.  Of course the Browns were porous against the run, but nothing makes a good friend to an over the hill, third comeback QB like having the best back in the game behind you to hand it off to 25 times a game.
• Jay Cutler – He is missing having a receiver right now that knows how to run an accurate pass pattern.  The Bears faithful will be hard on him early and often.  Let’s see if he can be a team leader…which is already being questioned a lot by the talking heads on the radio.
• “I Want Winners!” – Mike Singletary and the Niners win the opener against the defending NFC Champion Cardinals on the road.  A nice win for San Francisco.

Tiger Woods vaulted back to the top of the Fed Ex Points race with a runaway win at Cog Hill.  This gives Eldrick five wins on that course in his career as well as a couple of 2nd place finished.  He obviously likes the golf course, but in the same vein it is obvious that win he brings his “A” game, the rest of the field is playing for second place.

Ichiro captured his 9th straight 200 + hit season.  He is the first Major League baseball player to do so.  How tough is this record…..the last person to smack 200 or more base hits for 8 straight seasons was Willie Keeler….from 1894-1901!

Tennis missed a chance at another battle of the titans with Federer and Nadal.  Nadal was promptly retired by Juan Martin del Potro in the Semi’s on Sunday at Flushing Meadows 6-2, 6-2, 6-2.  Del Patro is playing well, but this match up in the final won’t have the same feel as another battle of the current heavyweights of men’s tennis.

Women’s volleyball gets a mention this week as the Huskers fell for the first time in a home match in 90 contests.  The attendance of 13,870 set a new NCAA record for single game attendance for a volleyball match.  The UCLA Bruins won under the great play of tournament MVP Lauren Cook … who just happens to be the daughter of Nebraska Head Coach John Cook.

College football had some exciting games this past weekend as well.  The two biggest games on the national radar were of course the USC vs. Ohio State contest.  Ohio State seems to play very conservative and Pryor looked rattled often during the game.  USC starts an unproven quarterback as well, but being on the road, with a host of young players proved to be the better team on Saturday night.  Ohio State needs to beat a non Big Ten School….and soon.

I am still waiting for Lou Holtz to apologize for his outrageous comment about the Golden Domers making the BCS title game – undefeated.  I mean you have to get by Michigan first … and that shouldn’t be THAT difficult at this point.