The SoapBoxers

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Note: This article originally ran on June 3, 2010.

Do athletes make too much money?  The quick reaction to this question is “yes”.

Let’s take a deeper look.  As usual, I’ll use baseball as an example.

The news media reports the big signing bonuses of the first round draft picks – but fail to report that the size of the bonuses drop precipitously throughout the draft.  In the later stages of the draft, a player might received a bonus of a couple thousand dollars – or no bonus at all.  But then they jump into the minors at a hefty salary, right?  Well, if you consider $1100 per month to be a lot of money.  That’s the MAXIMUM a player can earn in his first season, if he signs a minor league contract.  (A very small number of elite prospects sign Major League contracts with different rules).  The salaries increase as you move up through the system, but it’s very difficult to get rich playing baseball in the minor leagues.  Many players have another job in the off-season.

In this year’s draft (which begins on Monday night), 1500 players will be drafted by baseball teams each year. Hundreds more are signed as foreign free agents. The active roster for a Major League team is 25 players (expanded to 40 in September). That means that there are 750 active major leaguers for most of the season. In theory, this could expand to as many as 1200 in September if everyone expanded thie rosters to 40 players (which is not the case).  Obviously, the vast majority of minor league players are never going to make it to the Major Leagues.  Most of the players who do make it to the highest level won’t stick around very long.

What we’re really looking at when we see the “rich” athletes are the elite performers.  But elite performers in nearly every industry are very well compensated.  Find me one of the top 750 bankers in the country, and I’ll bet she makes a few bucks.

Athletes are entertainers.  When we look around the world of entertainment, we see a lot of highly compensatated stars – people who make as much money working on one movie as A-Rod makes for a season of work.  Yet, people seem much more willing to point at A-Rod as overpaid, but not so much at Tom Cruise or Taylor Swift (no, we’re not Taylor haters – we like her).

Why is this?  I’m really not sure.  It may be the perception that actors and singers work at their craft, whereas athletes are just using their “God-given” talents to play a child’s game.  If you subscribe to this theory, watch some of the “human interest” stories during the Olympics.  You’ll hear about kids putting in long hours of practice from the time they were knee high to a grasshopper in order to hone those raw God-given gifts into polished skills – beginning the “apprenticeship” aspect of their career at a very young age.

A typical baseball team has a payroll of about $100 million.  For the same cost, you could produce a Hollywood movie with a couple of big name stars.  I personally see more value in 162 baseball games than in one movie.  People complain about the cost of tickets to sporting events, but in a lot of baseball stadiums, you can actually buy a ticket for the same price as a movie ticket.  The difference is that the baseball team has a detailed price structure based on seat location and the desirability of the game.  When you buy a ticket to a movie, you pay the same for bad seats to a horrible movie as you do for good seats at the best movie of the year.  How’s that for logic?

Are athletes overpaid?  Nah.  Are elite performers in various industries overpaid?  Perhaps – but people pay for elite talent, whether it’s in baseball, acting, or investing.

Did you find this article interesting?  Then you might also like my article regarding whether or not college athletes should be paid.

This week the United States Open Golf Championship will be held at the Olympic Club at San Francisco.  There is a lot of anticipation for the event this year as well as a number of stories.

The USGA has released the pairings for the Thursday and Friday rounds, and there are some very attractive made for a Hollywood movie type of three-somes.

First and foremost will be the matinee headliner of Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods and Masters Champion, Bubba Watson.  Be glad you are at home watching these three because if you were at the tournament I can assure you the gallery size for this triumvirate would parallel the crowd at a Rose Bowl game.

Tiger is the early 5 ½ to 1 favorite with the Vegas odds makers.  This is likely due to his win two weeks ago at Jack’s place – The Memorial. 

Of course we have seen this before this year. Tiger wins at Bay Hill and the world announces “He is Back” then he falters badly and appears not to be able to handle the pressure of a major while playing in the Masters.  Then he looks like the Tiger of old on the weekend at the Memorial. The question remains, will he contend this week.

Buggy anyone?

In Scotland, they are called buggies, but here in the good ol’ USA we call them Golf carts, or even sometimes affectionately – chariots.

Next week during the U.S. Open a name of court cases of a bygone era – Casey Martin again will be riding a cart for the his rounds after, qualifying for tournament.  Martin, who is the Oregon Golf Coach, retired from competitive professional golf six years ago.      

Casey Martin is most known amongst the golf aficionados as the man  who successfully sued the U.S. PGA Tour in 2001 for the right to ride a cart.  Martin suffers from a  because of a degenerative circulatory disorder and has had difficulty walking due to this condition since his teenage years.

I am quite confident NBC will give this significant play again, although it has been more than a decade since this was major news on the golfing front.

Martin did take a cart during local and sectional qualifying and will be allowed the use of a cart during the tournament this week.  His playing companions will not be able to hitch a ride with him between holes. 

Who will win?

Normally a fluke does not with the U.S. Open. It is a tournament with the most severe conditions in terms of deep and thick rough, dry fairways, hard and fast greens, and demonic pin placements.

The person who wins typically is hitting a lot of fairways, is able to control their ball flight, and is playing outstanding around the greens.

This one is on the West Coast, and not many have won more on the left coast than the left hander, I am taking Phil Mickelson.  Plus with the nickname in  GCSSA circles, Flopsy McChokenstien due to a few of his near misses in majors, I am hoping Phil can get the 5 second place monkey off of his back and magically find it this week by the bay. 

Until Next Time, Stay Classy Thermopolis, Wyoming.

On the eve of the Belmont Stakes, the trainer of I’ll Have Another has announced that the horse has been scratched and will not race.  The culprit is swollen tendon in a leg.

The horse racing industry has been in need of a shot in the arm, and I’ll Have Another’s attempt at history would have given it a huge boost.  The last time a horse won the Triple Crown was in 1978 with Affirmed.

Had Another been able to race in the Stakes and come away with a win, the financial reward for his owners would have been enormous.  Not just the substantial stud fees, but also merchandising rights.  There’s a movie about Secretariat – would a triple crown run by I’ll have another generated a multi-million dollar bounty?

I’ll Have Another’s leg woes are also bad for NBC, which will televised the race, and the companies who purchased advertising.  What could have been an electric event with millions of extra viewers will now become just another ho-hum race.  Not only will the race lack Another’s star power, but will also be without Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister.

In the end, this is the case of an owner and trainer putting the horse’s health ahead of possible financial riches.  We’ve seen a horse break down on the track in a big race – Barbaro – and it’s not pretty.  Perhaps I’ll Have Another could have girded up his loins for one last race and run into the history books.  Perhaps he would have race poorly and tarnished his image.  Or, worst of all, perhaps this could have led to a broken leg and sent him down the path of euthanization.

As much as I would have enjoyed seeing I’ll Have Another make history, I agree with the call by the owner and trainer in this case.  Better safe than sorry.  As big and powerful as these horses can be, it’s important to also remember that they can be very fragile.

Appel Falls Far From The Tree

Will Mark Appel be leaving The Tree behind and putting down new roots in Pittsburgh?

On the eve of this year’s baseball draft, many observers felt that Stanford pitcher Mark Appel (pronounced A-pell) would be picked #1 overall by the Houston Astros.  Appel and Georgia high school hitter Byron Buxton were 1-2 on most people’s draft board.

Many people had the toolsy Buxton ahead of Appel, but there’s always a risk/reward with high school players.  The Major League teams gets the raw material earlier, before a player learns so many bad habits.  But on the flip side, there’s a lot more opportunity for a player to simply stall in development or be overrun by injuries.  A college player is generally closer to a finished product.

When the Astros finally made their pick, it was Puerto Rican shortstop Carlos Correa.  Correa’s definitely a great player in his own right, and has a great narrative surrounding him (in a nutshell, hardworking parents sacrifice for kid’s dream, poor residents of his flood-prone neighborhood raise money for trips to tournaments).  However, he was generally considered to be a notch below Appel and Buxton – at best the third best player in the draft and probably a bit below that.

Mark Appel slid all the way to the Pittburgh Pirates at #8 – allowing the Bucs the chance to add him to a farm system that already includes stud pitching prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon.

So why was the third best player picked with the top pick – and why did Mark Appel drop to eighth?

The Slotting System

For years, the commissioner’s office has advised teams on suggested bonuses for each spot in the draft.  However, this year there are penalties for exceeding the bonus recommendations.

How does it work?  Each spot in the first ten rounds of the draft is assigned a dollar value, with the number one picked being assigned a value of $7.2 million this year.  Players signed later than the 10th round must be signed for $100,000 or less.

Add up the amounts for a team’s picks, and that’s the amount they are allowed to spend on the players they draft in the first ten round rounds.  Each team will have a different amount – teams with high draft picks will have substantially higher amounts than those with worse picks.  If a player is picked at a slot valued at $1 million, a team could pay him $1.5 million … but they’d need to make up the difference on other players.  If a player does not sign, his amount is deducted from the amount the team is allocated.  In other words, if a team had a pool of $10 million and is unable to sign a player who had a $1 million value, they only have $9 million to sign their other draftees.

The penalties are steep.  Exceed the amount by just 5% and you pay a 75% luxury tax on the excess.  Exceed it by 10% and the tax jumps to 100% and you forfeit the next year’s first round pick.  Exceed the amount by 15% and you lose two future first round picks.

The Effect

Two basic strategies are likely to unfold.  The first strategy is like to make the first round pick based as much on signability as talent, and use the financial savings to sign later guys.  In the case of the Astros, pick a guy like Correa at #1 and offer him a bonus equivalent with the #2 or #3 slot.  They can save a million dollars or so and then picked some fairly tough to sign guys later in the draft (for example, Lance McCullers Jr. at #41) and pay them a bit more than the recommendation for that slot.

Conversely, if you think you are going to go over slot on your top pick, you can save money on the later picks.  For example, if you have picks 1, 25, and 42 you might pick the best player at #1, but opt for the 40th best guy at #25 and the 60th best guy at #42 and get those guys to sign for less than slot.

A possible third strategy would be to trade down in the draft … but draft picks can’t be traded.

The net effect is that the basic premise of the draft is broken.  A draft is supposed to be an efficient means for distributing a talent.  In a normal draft, the top player SHOULD be picked first and the 20th best talent should be picked (roughly) 20th.  With the new slotting rules, the “draft” really becomes more of a math logic puzzle than an actual draft.

A Loophole

In theory, the slotting is an attempt to keep teams with deep pockets (Yankees) from scooping up all the best talent by making it known that they’ll pay huge bonuses.  Studies have show that draft bonuses are actually a cost-effective means of acquiring talent (when compared to alterative methods such as free agency), but obviously most owners would prefer to keep bonuses as low as possible.

However, the system actually does create an unique opportunity for a team willing to pay the penalty.  As I understand it, the largest penalty is the two lost picks and 100% luxury tax if a team exceed the bonus pool amount by 15%.  That is to say, if you have a pool of $10 million, you lose two picks if you spend $10,150,000 or if you spend $20,000,000.  Other than the extra money paid in luxury tax, the penalty is the same.

If a team is pretty sure it’s going to go 15% over slot, they may make it know that they’ll pay way over slot in an attempt to get elite talent to drop to them – basically, shooting the moon and going WAY over budget. 

Let’s say that a team has picks 15, 41, and 48 in the current year’s draft.  The team has several emerging young stars and will likely pick very late in the draft for the next few years.  Let’s project them picking 23rd next year and 25th the year after.

The team makes it known that they will pay big bonuses for premium talent.  The top player in the draft falls to them at #15.  The sixth best guy falls at them at #41 and the 12th best guy falls to them at #48 – all because high demands from the players cause them to drop in the draft.  The team exceeds the bonus pool amount by a lot, and forfeits first round picks in the next two drafts.

Effectively, the team has traded picks 15, 23, 25, 41, and 48 for picks 1, 6, and 12.

Is this a fair trade?  Let’s consult a draft value chart (it’s a NFL-based chart, but the basic premise is similar).  Here are the values for each of the picks:

• 1 – 3000
• 6 – 1600
• 12 – 1200
• 15 – 1050
• 23 – 760
• 25 – 720
• 41 – 490
• 48 – 420

Picks 1, 6, and 12 are worth a combined 5800 points.  Picks 15, 23, 25, 41, and 48 are worth a combined 3440 points.  If you’re the Yankees, you pick those three top prospects, pay them, pay the luxury tax, and forfeit your first round picks in the next two years – because you’ll get more talent that way than by picking talent-appropriate players at each slot.

How to Fix the System

Clearly, I think the system is broken.  It’s fair, then, to ask me to propose a solution.  How would I fix the draft?

I think allowing teams to trade picks would make a lot of sense.  The current rule banning trades of picks (and draftees until they have been under contract for a year) seems to be in place merely to prevent General Managers from making huge mistakes.  Really?  These are supposed to be the best and brightest baseball minds.  Why do they need bumpers in their bowling alley?

If you allow trades, a team without a lot of money could still extract maximum value from a pick.  They might trade the #1 pick for the #15 pick and a couple of good prospects (or even a veteran who could contribute immediately).  The Yankees and Red Sox still might snap up a lot of the good young players, but they’d have to pay for them with talent (draft picks and players) as well as cash.  Currently, they can just throw money at players.

I’ve gone on the record many time as being opposed to any sort of caps on salaries, preferring to allow a free market to set amounts.  But if a cap must exist, I’d suggest an overall cap on player expenditures.  This means combining salaries for current major and minor league players, as well as bonuses paid to any draftees or foreign free agents.  Team A could decide to spend a big chunk of their allotment on draftee bonuses while Team B decides to spend most of their money on free agents – but both strategies would be equally valid.

Another thought would be to replace signing  bonuses with roster bonuses at the end of each season.  This would force a player to prove something before getting money.  However, the team would also be forced to make a commitment.  If they decided that a player wasn’t worth the roster bonus, the player would immediately become an unrestricted free agent.  We could call it the “fish or cut bait” clause.

The Bear and the Tiger

It was a “could be” storybook headline that ended up having a storybook ending.

Tiger Woods wins his 73rd career PGA sanctioned title at the tournament hosted by none other than the person that he has just tied– Jack Nicklaus.

Muirfield Village in Ohio is a very difficult golf course. Jack in his mind has tried to set up a tournament setting that emulates the Masters Tournament. They honor the giants of the game every year at the Memorial, paying homage to the all-time greats. The membership does not wear the Green Jackets, but they do were some pretty sporty (and I might add decent looking) metal grey jackets and blue dress shirts. The golf course is set up to standards that are very difficult including very fast greens, nasty rough, and demonic pin placements.

This also is the 5th time that Tiger has won this tournament. His high ball flight and ability to work magic around greens works for him very well at the Memorial. Truth be told – this is the best Tiger has looked in some time. He seemed in complete control of his swing, was hitting all of the shots he wanted, and was making a number of putts. By his own account on Sunday he “absolutely was striping it” and by now most of you have seen the incredible hole out late in the round.

This propelled him to an eventually 2 stroke victory, but unfortunately the chip-in is being over-hyped to the nth degree. The fact is that Tiger used to pull these shots with the regularity of vaudeville stage magicians pulling rabbits out of hats. Even Jack has piled on saying “under the circumstances, it is the best golf shot I have ever seen”. Easssssyyyyy Golden Bear. You have made a number of those shots over the years as well…so not sure I would say best ever.

NBA Playoffs

The two remaining series are well underway, and both have the feeling in their own respects of an Ali-Frazier heavyweight fight.

The Spurs and the Thunder have a nice back and forth series going. It is much more the case of the new kid on the block versus the grizzly veteran. It is poise versus athleticism. It is a total chess match of coaching, and it has been fun to watch.

While I have no NBA team allegiance, I must say that the more I watch Kevin Durant, the more impressed I am with how good he really is. I also still can’t believe Tim Duncan is still around. The guy seems like he must be 67 years old.

The Heat and the Celtics appear to be the more physical series based on what I have watched, a lot of fouls, a lot of smack talking both on and off the floor and a lot of crying to officials about getting calls or lack thereof. Wouldn’t it be nice to see the NBA actually officiate a game based on the rules of basketball, thereby forcing each team to play its last 5 bench reserves in an attempt to have anyone left to complete the game. With the hand checking, shoving, elbow throwing, wrestling, grabbing and any other description you can come up with, it is amazing that either team has any players left by halftime.

How I long for the more offensive minded days of Bird, Magic and Dr. J.

Of course the athletes are much stronger and more powerful than those golden days of yore in the NBA. Still the brand of thug-ball that seems to come out in the playoffs is something I could do without having to watch….but of course I am going to watch it anyway!

Until next time, stay classy Ogden, Utah!

Rockies news

My Rockies swept a four games series from the Astros.  Coupled with the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers in a four game series, this means that the Rockies have cut LA’s lead from 14.5 games down to 10.5.    While that’s still a significant deficit, it’s a pretty big improvement – and a weekend series against the Dodgers provides the opportunity to make up even more ground.  Both teams will be without major stars, as Matt Kemp of the Dodger’s re-injured his hamstring and Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies suffered a groin issue.

The Rockies exploded for 40 runs in the four games series.  Dexter Fowler woke up on Monday with a .237 batting average for the season.  By the time the day was over, his batting average was up to .276, thanks to seven hits in nine at bats (also a  walk and a sacrifice fly) in the doubleheader.  He had a homer and he won the nightcap with a walk-off triple.  I have to think that the walk-off triple must be one of the more rare plays in sports.  Most of the time the runner on first – who generally is taking lead – is going to cross the plate before the batter can reach third … and as soon as he crosses the plate, the game would be over. 

Fowler has been an enigma for years, mixing red-hot streaks with slumps.  However, he’s still pretty young (barely 26) and hopefully is coming into his own as a hitter.  At the moment, he is just a couple of plate appearances short of qualifying for the league leaders list (which requires 3.1 plate appearance per team game).  If he qualified, his .954 OPS would rank ninth in the National League.

When the series picked back up on Wednesday, teammate Carlos Gonzalez took the role of star from Fowler.  Fowler continued to hit – going 4 for 8 with a homer in the final two games of the series, but Gonzalez was an absolute monster.  CarGo went 6 for 9 with four homers.  The four homers were in consecutive at bats – three in Wednesday’s game and one in Thursday’s.  For the month, Gonzalez hit .351 with 10 homers and 26 RBI.  Gonzalez lead the league in runs (44), is tied for the lead in RBI (44), second in OPS (1.054), tied for second in homers (14), and is tied for fifth in batting average (.332)  and has also added 8 steals.  Like Fowler, Gonzalez is just 26.

Pujols Watch

Is Albert Pujols washed up?  Seems that there might still be some magic in his bat.  Pujols hit 8 homers in May (after zero in April), including four in a five game stretch.  Even with the horrible April, he’s still on pace for 25 homers.  It’s not a stretch to think that he can get to 30.

WTF?

Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy broke his hand in what can best be described as a freak accident.  While Lucroy was on the floor looking for a missing sock, he wife shifted a suitcase that was on the bed.  The suitcase fell and landed on Lucroy’s hand, breaking it.  His wife has been the object of considerable wrath from Brewers fans.  Seriously?  It’s not as if she ran down Lucroy intentionally with a car.  It was an accident.  These sorts of things happen from time to time.

The Draft

Baseball’s draft kicks off Monday.  This will be the first year of what is effectively a hard slotting system.  Each pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a specific dollar value.  Teams are then assigned the total value of these picks, and this is the amount of money they can use to sign players picked in those spots.  They could opt to spend all the money on one player (and not sign the others ) or spread it around.  However, penalties from exceeding this cap are very steep.  Going 15% over the cap would cause a team to lose two future first round draft picks.

Picks in rounds 11-40 can receive a maximum of $100,000.  If there is money left over from the pool for rounds 1-10, this money can be spent on later later players.  For example, if $1 million is left, a team could give an 11th round pick $1.1 million.

I’m not a fan of this change at all.  Baseball’s draft has always been a case of each side having leverage.  Due to baseball’s draft eligibility rules, many of the top players often have the options of attending college and being drafted again in a later year.  Teams who are unable to sign a player receive a compensatory pick in a later draft.  At times, talented players slip down to teams with deep pockets, but this could be fixed by allowing teams to trade picks (so that they could extract maximum value from the pick by getting rich teams to bid against each other).

Who will be picked first overall?  USC pitcher Mark Appel and Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton are the names that pop up most often.  High school pitcher Lucas Giolito may be the most talented player in the draft, but a minor arm injury has scared some teams away (in any case, high school pitchers are a risky proposition in general). 

If you’re new around here, you might not know that I’m a huge baseball fan.  If you’ve been a reader for a while, you really have no excuse for not knowing.

I really feel fortunate to live in a time when there is so much modern technology to keep me in touch with baseball.  Sure, it lets me keep up on world news and the stock market, but let’s focus on what’s important.

The Old Days

When I was a kid, I was a fan of the Cubs (I was cured of this disease in my late teens).  I loved baseball, but my access to information was extremely limited.  We didn’t have cable TV, so the only time I was able to watch a game was when the Cubs were on national TV – a handful of games each year.  I did have the ability to listen to games on the radio.  I could almost always get the Cubs games, and often the Cardinals, too.  On a good night, I could catch the Reds from where I lived in eastern Iowa.  I’m sure I could have also picked up the White Sox, but even as a kid I had little interest in the American League.

Statistics?  There were box scores in the daily paper, but if I wanted a running total, I had to wait for the Sunday paper, which would list the league leaders in hitting and pitching (a long list).  I had to run my finger down the list until I found my favorite players.

The Modern Age

These days, I subscribe to MLB Extra Innings.  Although a bunch of teams are blacked out in Iowa (Cubs, Sox, Twins, Brewers, Cardinals), I have the ability to catch most games played by my Colorado Rockies – assuming that I have the free time to do so, and that the game gets over at a reasonable time (those west coast games are killers).  Such easy access to “out of market” games is a dream come true for a baseball fan.

If I want statistics, there are no end of sites that can give my up to date information.  The most frequently used app on my Palm Pre?  The “Baseball Live!” apps that constantly refreshes scores and allows me to quickly check in on any game.  I keep tabs on quite a few players (beside my Rockies,  I watch Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Matt Holliday, Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, and a few others), so this is really handy.

I don’t get as much time to catch baseball coverage as I would like, and I spend a lot of time alone in my car.  Recently, I realized that it would make a lot of sense to load up on podcasts.  Since then, I’ve been listening to several hours of baseball coverage every day.  ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, Baseball America – if they’re talking, I’m listening.  It’s definitely far better than the options available on over the air radio during my drive times.

Of course, we can’t forget about Twitter.  I’m not a huge Twitter user, but I do follow a couple of Rockies players – Dexter Fowler and Eric Young Jr.  Both interact quite a bit with fans, and I’m come to become bigger fans of both as a result of what I see on Twitter.  EY occasionally retweets some nasty tweets he receives from “fans” (anti-fans), which let us see what they have to deal with at time.  Fowler seems to constantly be doing ticket giveaways.  Both guys are clearly enjoying playing a kids’ game.

Has your hobby been influence by technology in recent year?  What impact has technology had?

My how the mighty have fallen.

This weekend I took in one of my favorite Memorial Day weekend sport related pastimes. I realized a lot has changed since the days of my youth. Of course I am talking about…..

The Indianapolis 500.

I harken back to my younger days, it was on ABC. Of course in those days you did not have 1873 different channels to choose from on cable, or the dish, so on Monday night, you got to watch the Big Race. The entire family got together after a day of running around the yard, and barbecuing to enjoy the air-conditioned living room (typically at my grandparents’ house) and some sugary snacks for me and my cousins. Looking back now I am certain is was some nice down time for the parents and grandparents as well after a long day of chasing us around everywhere.

All of the same names were there, year after year after year. A.J. Foyt, Tom Sneva, Al Unser, Gordon Johncock, Bobby Rahal, Johnny Rutherford….I am sure there are many more, but those are the ones I remember.

You also had the cool sounding team racing names….McLaren and Cosworth sounded rich, chic and mysterious. You didn’t see cars with these names going down the street in your hometown. But you were sure to check out the cool corvette or Camaro that was the pace car for that particular year and it was all painted up and looking sweet!

Jim Nabors signaled that you better get your coke and popcorn ready as he started singing “Back Home Again in Indiana” There were thousands of red, white, and blue balloons released into the air. Even doves on some occasions if memory serves me correctly.

The television coverage was grainy as could be, you had about 4-5 different camera angles and that was pretty much it.

You saw that huge trophy. Wouldn’t it be cool to take that home with you.

There were announcers that you only heard at this event. Of course there was ALWAYS Jim McKay, but then there was also Sam Posey, Jackie Stewart and my personal favorite Chris Economacki.

Even the time trials were a huge event. They took up the weekend coverage the week before the 500. It was pretty much an afternoon devoted to the racing around the 2 mile oval. You got to watch the three laps against the clock, and then hear the announcers break-down their chances for the following week.

You marveled at the guy perched above the finish line waving his flags…green, yellow, white……checkered.

This year the 500 went off with a general malaise of which I cannot ever remember. No big coverage of the time trials, barely a mention on SportsCenter. My local newspaper did not even make it front page of the sports section. Instead it was relegated to about 6 small paragraphs on page #3 of the Sports Section.

NASCAR is much bigger now. The weekend race received front page sports coverage on what used to be considered the biggest racing event in America (with all apologies to the Daytona 500).

Personally, I am not a race fan at all, but for the casual race fan, the demise of the Indianapolis 500 is well underway. All you had to do was look at the stands yesterday. Years ago, the Brickyard was packed to the gills for this race.

Yesterday a lot of race fans evidently dressed up as empty seats. I am sure there will be more fans there for the NASCAR event later this year.

Things are always changin’

Until Next Time, Stay Classy Rutland, Vermont!
 

  

Hitting on a variety of topics this week as there has been a lot going on.

Horse Racing

I’ll Have Another rolled around the track at Pimlico to win the second Jewel of the Triple Crown. We once again have a chance to see a Triple Crown winner as the horse made a huge move down the stretch to catch Bodemeister and get the win by a head in the Preakness Stakes.

Bodemeister is staying home for the final installment of the three big races, so it will be interesting to see who will come and try to spoil the party, as these two horses were WELL clear of the field this past Sunday.

The last horse to win the triple crown was Affirmed in 1978.

Bye Bye L.A.

Showtime gets to go on vacation as they were easily dispatched by the Oklahoma City Thunder in their second round series by a count of 4-1. There is a lot of talk already about players being traded here or there in the offseason. Sadly we also found out what happens in OKC during victory celebrations and 8 people were shot last night in various events following the win.

On the other side of the states, everyone is wondering what is wrong with the Miami Heat. The “Big Three” has not been getting it done, LeBron James has been getting thrown under the bus, Wade has played poorly, and Chris Bosh is injured.  On Sunday, LeBron and Wade exploded for 70 combined points (with some help from Haslem) to get the series back to even, but unless the Heat get back Bosh, it is going to be a large task for them to go any further in the playoffs.  LeBron and Wade cannot win EVERY game on their own. Other players on the squad right now basically can’t hit the ocean falling out of a boat, and the Pacers frankly are a bad personnel match up for the Heat due to their size, especially with no Bosh in the lineup. Could be an interesting next couple of days in South Beach.

In other Florida NBA news, Stan Van Gundy has been fired as coach of the Magic.  Let’s see a show of hands – was anyone surprised by this?

NFL Training Camps

RG III has evidently impressed the Redskins coaching staff and has looked sharp early on in practice. I love RG III!

In other news the Bucs have gotten rid of loud mouthed warrior Kellen Winslow and signed Dallas Clark. Talk about instant locker-room improvement.

Is anyone else surprised we have not heard anything about Peyton Manning in a couple of weeks?

Baseball

No excitement this year for me. The biggest news has been the lack of home runs by Albert Pujols.  The teammate gaining the most from the attention on Pujols this year is rookie Mike Trout.  The 20 year old Trout is one of the top 2 prospects in all of baseball – but between the media attention on Bryce Harper’s antics and their fascination with Pujols being unable to hit his stride, Trout has been able to sneak under the radar a bit.  This shouldn’t be the case, as Trout is batting .350 with 4 homers and 6 steals in 20 games (OPS .613).  Trout’s game is built around speed, so the early homers are an added bonus for the Halos.

Yu Darvish has been garnering a lot of the spotlight, which is normally the case with foreign phenoms.  Darvish is putting up good numbers – he is 6-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 56 innings pitched.  Perhaps the biggest concern at this point is walks.  Darvish has issued 32 free passes – a rate of more than 5 walks per 9 innings.  He seemed to be getting this under control with walks totals of 2, 2, 4, 3, and 2 in a recent five game stretch.  Last night, however, Darvish issues a career high six walks and was sent to the showers after the fourth inning.

Lastly, Aroldis Chapman of the Reds was picked up for speeding last night. Chapman has been literally unhittable this year, posting 39 strikeouts in just 22 1/3 innings and a .196 batting average allowed. Seems like he was trying to drive as fast as his highest pitch speed (which is 105 mph) as Chapman was pulled over Monday for going a leisurely 93 mph on the interstate.

Justin Verlander had a recent no-hit attempt broken up in the ninth inning.  Had he finished with a no-no, it would have been the third of his career.  Batters are hitting just .168 against him this year.

Matt Kemp’s run at an MVP took a hit with a hamstring injury.  He says that the hammy is at 85% and he plans to return to the lineup on May 29th.  Sometimes these types of injuries can linger.  The post-season aspirations of the Dodgers hinges on whether or not Kemp can make a full recovery.

On the topic of comebacks … look no further than the south side of Chicago.  After seven straight seasons of at least 38 homers, Adam Dunn fell hard in 2011.  In his first year with the White Sox, he hit just 11 homers in 415 at bats, while hitting anemic .159.  This year, his average is at .247 (higher than his career mark) and he has 14 homers and 34 walks en route a .986 OPS.  And fans don’t have to worry about the heat this summer – Dunn’s 62 strikeouts (on pace for a record 239) has provided abundant air circulation at The Cell.

Until next time, stay classy Thief River Falls, Minnesota!
 

 

How long can Trent Richardson expect to play in the NFL?

The topic comes up every year: how long is the average football player’s career?  People are particularly interested in the length of an NFL running back’s career, since it seems that injuries often cut their careers short.  This is often given as 4-5 years, with some estimates coming in as low as 2.5 years.

As is often the case, methodology is going to be very important.

Perhaps the worst methodology I have ever seen was looking at the current starting running backs and calculating the mean number of years they have been in the NFL.  However, this uses mid-career numbers and is going to underestimate the reality.  Would you take a 2 year old, 45 year old, and 75 year old and simply use the mean of their ages (40.67) and declare this to be the average life span?  Of course not – nor should you use mid-career numbers to calculate the average length of career.

The second issue is the decision of whom to include.  Do we include ALL NFL running backs, even the guy from Kosmo State who went in the 7th round and narrowly held onto a roster spot for a year before getting cut?  This guy’s career was cut short by lack of talent, not by injury.  We need to separate the wheat from the chaff and determine the average career length of a GOOD NFL running back.  I doubt that the casual fan is too concerned about how long her team’s third string back will kick around the league.

My methodology

There are two decisions to be made with the data.  The first is how to quantify “good”.  I’m going to take the years 1991-2010 and look at running backs who finished in the top 20 in the league in rushing yards at least once during that twenty year span.  My thought is that if you’re a good running back – the type that carries a team – you’re going to land in the top 20 at some point.  Maybe not every year, but at least once.  This is going to miss some situations like guys who are part of a tandem backfield for their entire career, but it should at least provide a decent sample size to work with.  I am excluding active players (defined as players who played in 2011), because of the problem with mid-career numbers.  Rushing yards isn’t a perfect barometer, but it should be fairly sound.

The second decision is what is meant by “length of career”.  Years can be messy – if a guy plays 9 games, does he get credit for a year?  I decided to just scrap the idea of years and go with games instead.

The data

Twenty years of top 20 lists means 400 names.  However, many players made the list multiple times.  There were 150 unique names on the list.  40 of these players are active, leaving 110 retired players in this group.  Here is the list, in order of most to fewest games played.

 
Mean: 109.4

Median: 103.5

If we divide these numbers by a 16 game schedule, we get 6.8 years for the mean and 6.5 for the median.  However, it’s important to note that it’s pretty common for a player – in any sport – to get dinged up and miss a game every one in a while.  So even a generally healthy running back would generally stretch these games out over 7.5 – 8 years.  Only 27 of the 110 players in the group had a career of 80 games or fewer (5 full seasons).

Most likely, a running back with Trent Richardson’s pedigree can bank on an eight year NFL career.  Longer if he’s lucky, shorter if he’s not.