Stock Market Contest Update

September 2, 2009

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Back On April 15, we launched a Stock Market contest (click link to see insights from the participants) in which a team of Goliaths (personal finance bloggers) were matched up against a team of Davids (people who were not personal finance bloggers). At the end of July, the Dow stood at 9171.61 and had gained average 11.59 points during the course of the contest, making the Davids the favorites.

The market had its strongest August since 2000, and ended the month at 9496.28, up 324.67 for the month.

At the end of the day on April 14th (the 104th day of the year), the Dow was at 7920.18.

At the end of the day on August 31 (the 243rd day of the year), the Dow was at 9496.28.

This is a gain of 1576.10, or 11.34 points per day. If we assume that the market will contain to gain at exactly the same rate throughout the rest of the year (yes, a ridiculous assumption), the Dow will be at 10879.92 at the end of the year (+ 2959.74 from April 14).

How do our contestants stack up?

Team Player Player’s Guess Difference from projection
N/A Projected year end Dow 10879.92 0
David Peter Rabbit @ The Soap Boxers 9500 1379.92
No team Kosmo @ The Soap Boxers 8999 1880.92
David Phil Ossifer @ The Soap Boxers 8500 2379.92
Goliath Trevor @ Financial Nut 8500 2379.92
David Black Hole 8492.48 2387.44
Goliath Heidi @ Banker Girl 8400 2479.92
Goliath Lazy @ Lazy Man and Money 8232 2647.92

I also invited visitors to play along at home. Let’s see how they are doing.

Player Player’s Guess Difference from projection
Karchy 9777 112.92
Hilary 9500 1379.92
Jeff 7800 3079.92

Team David remains firmly in the lead at this point.  There are still four months remaining in the years, but Team Goliath would need a signficant downturn in the market in order to emerge victorious.

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