The SoapBoxers

Thursday

UCLA @ Oregon (-21.5) – Oregon…each and every week until proven otherwise. Ore 52- UCLA 21

Friday

South Florida @ Cincinnati (-8.5) – Da Bulls, Da Bulls, Da Bulls, Da Bulls. Natti – 28 – SFU – 21

Saturday

Purdue @ Ohio State (-27.5) – It’s good to be home again, but no energy this week. OSU – 31- Purdon’t – 17

Michigan State (-8.5) @ Northwestern – Northwestern catches em on a sleeper. Mich St 24- NW – 21

Rutgers @ Pittsburgh (-8.5) – Rutgers is playing better. Pitt 17- Rutgers – 14

Notre Dame (-4.5) @ Navy – the Middies streak ends this year. ND – 28- Navy 21

Maryland @ Boston College (-4.5) – BC will conquer the turtles. BC- 28- Maryland- 20

Nebraska (-3.5) @ Oklahoma State– Huskers won’t drop 9 passes this week. Corn 35- OSU 28

LSU @ Auburn (-4.5) – War Eagle! Auburn 21- LSU – 10

Wisconsin @ Iowa (-6.5) – Wisconsin cannot get the karma going again on the road this week but will cover. IA – 24- Wisco – 21

Arizona State @ California (-1.5) – Who Cares? ASU – 35- Cal -31

Georgia Tech @ Clemson (-5.5) – Clem gets back on track this week…Dabo..dabo Doooooooo!. Clem – 31- Ga tech – 21

North Carolina @ Miami (-7.5) – The gangsters are better at home. Miami – 28- NC – 14

Air Force @ TCU (-16.5) – The Cadets stinging after last week, not a good week to make up for it. Frogs- 35- Fliers – 14

Oklahoma (-6.5) @ Missouri – Mizzou gets a taste of what it is like to finally play someone good. OU – 42- Mizzou – 21

Washington @ Arizona (-4.5) Jake Locker looking like a Heisman candidate again? AZ- 28 – Wash – 27

We are in that time of year where you can have overload of sports. College and Professional Football are in full swing, Basketball and Hockey are in preseason, Major League baseball is approaching the World Series and auto racing is in the final lap. It is quite easy to overload or get in trouble with your spouse this time of year.

Many people around the country live and die with their teams or heroes. I am partial to college and pro football and wear that allegiance on my sleeve. I have a bar that caters to my pro team even though we are hundreds of miles from the home city. My college team is nationally known, so I have many opportunities to see them on TV, but when I can’t, enter the internet.

These events bring people together, most of the time for camaraderie, sometimes in competition. These are opportunities for all of us to show our own sportsmanship. The results of each contest result in week long discussions. Conspiracy theories come and go, complaints are registered, wins are celebrated, loses are mourned. The true benefit this year is that we get distracted from the politics that have overwhelmed our entertainment options. Politics are not bad in general, but who is elected dog catcher is not an end of the world decision. Sports just gives us a break, possibly giving us a chance to breath and look at the political landscape with a fresh attitude after a weekend of sheering on the home team.

Unfortunately, the full sports story is not on the field. I am a Pittsburgh Steelers fan. My team had to play the first four games of the season without their star quarterback. This absence was due to the personal conduct of that player. He seems to have trouble making good choices when in comes to behavior off the field. He has been accused of rape. He has driven his motor cycle into the side of a panel van during the early hours of a morning. He has exposed himself to a woman in a bar with probable sexual contact in a public place. If he can get the team into the playoffs, most fans will forgive him, some will always condemn him.

So what does all of our sports addiction do for us? It gives us an escape. We can claim to be part of an activity that most of us do not have the physical qualifications to perform. It allows us to ignore the rest of the world for a few hours. It allows us to argue about something that is not politics or religion. In the end, we are less active and eat poorly while watching people exercise and having well maintained bodies (except for some of the linemen in football and designated hitters in baseball). As in all things in life, some good and some bad results come from sporting events. My advice is to get as much enjoyment as you can from any source. And just to complete my affiliation confession – Go Texas Longhorns

Thursday

Kansas State (-4.5) @ Kansas – Wildcats still stinging after the Husker beatdown last week. Kansas is T-R-B-L terrible. KSU- 28- KU 17

Saturday

Illinois @ Michigan State (-9.5) – Let down after big win last week. Illinois 21- Mich St 20

Missouri @ Texas A&M (-3.5) – A&M is better than advertised, Mizzou, not as good as advertised. A&M 28- Mizzou 27

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse (even) – One of these weeks the panthers get it done for me. Pitt 31- Syracuse 21

Minnesota @ Purdue (-6.5) – gophers are ticked off after Wisco goes for two late in a blowout last week. Won’t matter. Purdue 28- Minn 14

Texas @ Nebraska (-8.5) – Too many points, Texas has had an extra week but still have worst head coach at a major college program. Corn – 27 – Horn 24

Iowa (-3.5) @ Michigan – Bounce back at the big house. MEEEEEECHIGAN 28 – Iowa 21

California @ USC (-3.5) – I love it when USC loses. USC 31- Cal 28

Arkansas @ Auburn (-2.5) – Match up of the weekend. Ark 21- Aub 19

Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (-3.5) – Red Raiders have less defense than the cowboys, but are tougher at home. OSU 42- TT 35

South Carolina (-6.5) @ Kentucky – Hanogver after big win. Kentucky 21- SC 17

THE Ohio State (-6.5) @ Wisconsin – Wisconsin running game gets on track WI – 24- OSU 20

Iowa State @ Oklahoma (-23.5) – Clones get rolled for 2nd straight week. OU – 35- ISU 10

Baylor @ Colorado (even) – three words. R – G – 3. Baylor 35- Col 17

Oregon State @ Washington (even) – Why are people still Jake Locker Believers? OSU 31- Wash 20

Yesterday, we previewed the American League playoff teams.  Today, we look at the National League.

Philadelphia Phillies – National League East Champions (97-65)

How did they get here:
The Phillies were 7 games out of first place on July 22.  Going 47-17 from that date through the end of the season locked up the division for the reigning National League champions.

Strengths:

• Rotation – Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt are a stunningly potent trio.  The 33 year old Halladay paced the National League in wins and innings pitched, and will pitch in the playoffs for the first time in his career.  While Cole Hamels never seems to rack up high win totals, it’s not due to lack of performance on his part.  He posted a 3.06 ERA – the third season of 3.40 or lower in the past 4 seasons.  Roy Oswalt is the new kid on the block.  After starting the season 6-12 with a stellar 3.42 ERA for Houston, he flourished in Philadelphia, going 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA.  All three guys pitched at least 200 innings.
• The big bats – Ryan Howard had an off year and still managed 31 homers.  Jayson Werth hit 27 homers while leading the National League in doubles (46).  He’s also a free agent at the end of the year – so he has extra incentive to perform in front of a national audience.  I’m not exposed to the east coast media, and perhaps he gets more coverage there – but Werth seems like a very under-the-radar star.  Chase Utley slipped a bit, but still posted numbers that are strong for a second baseman.  Carlos Ruiz put up a .302 batting average at catcher.

Weaknesses:

• Shortstop Jimmy Rollins fought injuries and saw his OPS decline for the 3rd straight season.  It’s probably too early to yell that the sky is falling … but there is reason for concern.
• 3B Placido Polanco doesn’t hit with the power most team expect from their third baseman.
• Paul Hoover sucks.

Player to watch:
Jamie Moyer.  There’s not really a young breakout player to keep an eye on, so let’s focus on the 47 year old 267 game winner.  Moyer won’t pitch in the first round, but might crack the roster later in the playoffs, as a lefty out of the pen.

San Francisco Giants – National League West Champions (92-70)

How did they get here:
The Giants finished the season strong – 45-29 in the second half and 19-10 in August and September. However, it would be prudent to give the Padres some credit. A stunning collapse by San Diego – including a 10 game losing streak – allowed the Giants to snatch the division from them. The Giants won a game against San Diego on the final day of the season – and clinched the division as a result.

Strengths:

• Rotation – Reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum’s 3.43 ERA ranks 4th among Giants starters – Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez all posted ERAs of 3.14 or lower. This is the best rotation in the playoffs. However, it may be worth noting that Bumgarner is a 21 year old kid with a total of 19 career starts.
• Hitters who rose to the occasion in limited roles. Rookie catcher Buster Posey made the most of his opportunity by batting .305 with 18 homers. Pat Burrell hit his 18 in just 289 at bats. Veteran players Aubrey Huff (26 homers) and Juan Uribe (24 homers) also had strong seasons.

Weaknesses:

• 3B Pablo Sandoval saw his number drop dramatically across the board. He hit .330 with 25 homers in 2009, but just .268 with 13 homers this year.
• An awful lot of players filled roles for the Giants this year. Only 1 outfielder (Andres Torres) got more than 500 at bats. Sure, some of the limited role players succeeded with their opportunities, but will the familiarity with teammates be there at critical junctures in the game?

Player to watch:
Buster Posey. 18 homers and a .305 average from a rookie CATCHER! Heck, he doesn’t even strike out very much. I was high on the kid when he was drafted, and I’m still a fan.

Cincinnati Reds – National League Central Champions (91-71)

How did they get here:
A 19-8 August, combined with an unexpectedly underperforming Cardinals team, allowed the Reds to claim the division title. They didn’t finish the season on a strong note, going 14-16 in their final 30 games.

Strengths:

• Hitting, top to bottom. SS Orlando Cabrera was the only regular to finish the season with an OPS lower than .758. MVP candidate Joey Votto hit .324 with 37 homers.
• Chemisty – This group should also have good cohesion, as everyone other than catcher Ramon Hernandez recording at least 494 at bats.

Weaknesses:

• Rotation – Only Bronson Arroyo (17) and Johnny Cueto (12) won as many as 9 games. Edinson Volquez served a 50 game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs, and wasn’t great after he returned – he’ll need to step up in the post-season in order to have this rotation match up with the other teams.
• Closer – Francisco Cordero’s notched 40 saves, but his 3.84 ERA and 11 decisions (6-5) are indications that he wasn’t as dominant as the Reds would have liked.

Player to watch:
22 year old Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman touched 105 mph on the radar gun. He had a bit of an up-and-down season in the minors before his call-up, but there have been more ups than downs. Chappy was used exclusively out of the bullpen late in the season, pitching just 13 1/3 innings.

Atlanta Braves – National League Wild Card (91-71)

How did they get here:
The Braves were in first place by 7 games on July 22, before fading and finishing 7 games behind the Phillies. Had the Padres beaten the Giants on the final day of the season, the Braves would have ended up in a tie for the wild card – but the Giants prevailed and punched playoff tickets for themselves and the Braves. The Braves were 14-16 in their final 30 games.

Strengths:

• Bullpen – Billy Wagner notched 37 saves and posted a 1.73 ERA. He led a bullpen corps that included 5 guys who pitched in at least 56 games and record an ERA below 3.00.
• Emotion – this is the final year for Braves manager Bobby Cox. Cox won more than 2500 games during a managerial career that dates back to 1978 – and 2149 of those wins were for the Braves. He took the team to the World Series 5 times, winning one title. He also holds the distinction of being ejected more times than any other manager in history (yes, they track this stuff), earning him the appreciation of his players. The players want to send Cox out on a high note.

Weaknesses:

• Hitting – there are some serious holes in this lineup. Chipper Jones, the heart and sole of the team for a decade and half, suffered a season ending injury. OF Nate McClouth was an All Star in 2008, but was the worst hitter on the team this year. Once promising SS Yunel Escobar was traded to the Blue Jays. Only one player, catcher Brian McCann, managed to hit 20 homers (he had 21). There are still some solid hitters in the lineup, but it’s not as scary as what other teams will put on he field.
• Rotation – Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA) and Tommy Hanson (3.33 ERA) should be able to hold their own with the other top guns, but the Braves lack the third elite arm that their opponents are going to be able to throw at them.

Player to watch:
21 year old outfielder Jason Heyward is one of the best prospects in the game and could become a household name with a strong performance.

Who is my choice? I’m going to go with the Phillies. They have the second best rotation of the 4 teams, and their offense is much better than the Giants.

This is a preview of the American League teams.  You can also see my thoughts on the National League Playoff teams.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays – AL East Champions (96-66)

How they got here:
The young Devil Rays team battled the veteran Yankees for the division title and emerged victorious. They were 42-32 in the second half, but just 15-15 in the last thirty games.

Strengths:

• Rising superstar David Price went 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA
• Three starters topped 200 innings pitched
• Closer Rafael Soriano notched 45 saves and posted a 1.73 ERA

Weaknesses:

• Aside from 3B Evan Longoria and OF Carl Crawford, nobody in the lineup really scares you. 1B Carlos Pena had 28 homers, but posted just a .196 batting average. Longoria and Crawford were the only regulars with a batting average higher than .263.
• The back end of the rotation has some holes.  Actually, once you get beyond Price, there’s a decent drop-off.

Player to watch:
Evan Longoria hit fewer home runs this year, but don’t be fooled – he’s one of the best young players in the game.

New York Yankees – AL Wild Card (95-67)

How they got here:
After a long duel with the upstart Tampa Bay Devil Rays, the Yankees lost the division race by a single game and ended up as the wild card. The Yankees were just 39-35 after the All-Star break, including 13-17 in September and October.

Strengths:

• Five players with 24 or more homers, led by 1B Mark Teixeira
• 21 game winner CC Sabathia and resurgent veteran Andy Pettitte both posted ERA below 3.50
• Closer Mariano Rivera remains one of the best in the game

Weaknesses:

• Only one regular with a batting average higher than .288
• Get deeper into the rotation, and there is a significant drop-off in talent level
• Derek Jeter is winding up the worst season of his career – and might be in significant decline

Player to watch:
2B Robinson Cano has always hit for good average (.309 career average is 12th highest among active MLB players), but has added a power stroke in the last few years, with 25 homer last year and 29 this year. That’s great production from a middle infield position – watch for the Yankees to become Cano’s team in the next few years.

Minnesota Twins – AL Central Champions (94-68)

How they got there: After a lackluster 46-42 record in the first half of the season, the Twins posted a 48-26 record in the second half to pull away in the division.

Strengths:

• Catcher Joe Mauer had his power numbers fall back to their normal levels, but continued to be the heart and soul of the team. He posted a .327 batting average and has the 3rd highest career batting average of any active player (also .327)
• DH Jim Thome popped 25 homers in just 340 at bats as he looks toward the end of a Hall of Fame career.

Weaknesses:
Nobody in the rotation is really a bona fide ace.  Journeyman Carl Pavano led the team with 17 wins – nobody else won more than 14.  Brian Duensing has looked promising (10-3, 2.62), but he has just 22 career starts under his belt.

Player to watch:
It’s seems like OF Delmon Young has been in the league forever, and many fans have already written him off as a bust. However, Young just turned 25 in September and took a significant step forward this year, hitting 21 homers to go along with a .298 batting average. There’s plenty of upside potential for Young, especially if he can take a few more walks.

Texas Rangers – AL West Champions (90-72)

How they got here: A 21-6 record in the month of June pushed them to a big lead, and they were never seriously challenged in the division race. They had the luxury of resting some players down the stretch to get them healthy for the playoffs (notably Josh Hamilton).

Strengths:

• Middle of the order hitters: OF Josh Hamilton led the league with a .359 batting average and hit 32 homers, DH Vlad Guerrerro resurrected his career with 29 homers, and OF Nelson Cruz contributed 22 homers in just 399 at bats.
• Rotation: C.J. Wilson finally got an opportunity to start and responded with 15 wins and a 3.35 ERA, while 24 year old Tommy Hunter went 13-4 with a 3.73 ERA. Veteran Colby Lewis overachieved to post a 3.72 ERA. Although mid-season acquisition Cliff Lee didn’t pitch as well as the Rangers hoped down the stretch, he’s still a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs and is the ace of the staff.

Weaknesses:
There are holes in the lineup. SS Elvis Andrus provided zero homers, and the Rangers also struggled to get offensive production out of the 1B and Catcher spots.

Players to watch:
I can’t settle on just one. OF Josh Hamilton is a great story – a former number one overall pick finally getting past his demons to break out as a superstar. 22 year old closer Neftali Feliz is one of the best young pitchers in the game. Elvis Andrus has struggled offensively, but he’s just barely 22 years old.

Thursday

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State (-3.5) Could be a shootout, I like the home team. OSU – 35- A&M 28

Saturday

Miami (-3.5) @ Clemson – Take the Hurrigansters until proven otherwise. Miami – 31- Clem 20

Virginia Tech (-3.5) @ North Carolina State – wow…both of these teams are bad. Va Tech 27- NC St 17

Northwestern (-4.5) @ Minnesota – Wildcats eat Gophers. NW – 28- MINN 21

Navy @ Air Force (-7.5) – Gimmie the home team in a cover. AF 24- Navy 23

Texas vs Oklahoma (-4.5) – Red River shootout lost its luster after the Horns got cooked by Skippy Nuhiesel last week. OU – 35- Tex 20

Wisconsin @ Michigan State (even) – John Clay for Heisman! WI – 24- Mich St 20

Arizona State @ Oregon State (-6.5) – This one is not on the Smurf Turf. Ore St – 27- ASU 14

Georgia (-2.5) @ Colorado – The Buffs are Horrid. GA- 40- CU 14

Texas Tech (-4.5) @ Iowa State – Tech goes wild in Ames. TT- 35- IA St 17

Florida @ Alabama (-7.5) Florida Came alive last week. This one will be close. FLA 24- Bama 21

Washington @ USC (-11.5) – The Huskies are even More Horrid than the Buffs. USC – 46- Wash 21

Notre Dame (-1.5) @ Boston College – ND cannot stop anyone. Not even another Catholic School. BC 21- ND 20

Penn State @ Iowa (-7.5) – Like the Hawks. But not to cover. Iowa 21- Penn St 17

Stanford @ Oregon (-6.5) – The ducks are like watching a live version of Madden 2011. Ore 45- Stan 35

What’s going on in Kosmo’s world?

First of all, the Rockies are very nearly eliminated from the NL West race, trailing the Giants by 4.5 games with 7 games remaining on the schedule (the Giants have just 6 games left).  The Giants have 88 wins, the Padres 87, and the Rockies 83.  With the Giants and Padres finishing the season playing each other in a 3 game series, it’s a mathematial certainty that one of them will reach 89 wins – meaning the Rockies need to to 6-1 to even have a shot – and that’s based on the Padres and Giants both getting swept in their next series.  The situation in the wild card race is similarly bleak.  I’ve ever-optimistic, but not holding my breath.  The Rockies have fought a lot of injuries to get where they are, but it looks like they might fall a bit short.

Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum lost a lot of respect in my eyes when he accused the Rockies (under his breath) of using juiced balls.  Division rivals have suggested that the Rockies have somehow managed to get non-humidored balls to the umpire when they are trailing – just in time to have the Rockies hitters crush them during a comeback.  Of course, the fact that Lincecum was supposedly able to detect such a ball actually strengthens my assertion that the Rockies are not using juiced balls.  In the past, pitchers have said that the humidored balls are “slick” (even though they are stored at a humidity level that is essentially what you would see in most of the country).  If that’s the case, then pitchers would be able to detect the difference if the Rockies tried to pull a fast one.  After all, if Lincecum could detect one, why couldn’t Roy Halladay or Kyle Lohse (or Jamie Moyer, who hasdealt with everything during his 50 year career)?  Are the non-humidored balls dryer to the touch than a “slick” humidored ball, or is it impossible to detect the difference?  You can’t have your cake and eat it, too – pick one answer and stick with it.

Why are the Rockies so good at home?  Well, first of all, there are a number of teams that are downright dominant at home – not just the Rockies.  Secondly, you’re looking at a team that is constructed to help the pitchers.  The pitch staff leans heavily toward groundball pitchers, the middle infielders are good defensive players, and you have two true centerfielders (Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez) patrolling the massive outfield territory (to prevent doubles from falling in).  The net effect is that you should expect Coors to appear much more neutral to Rockies pitchers (and opposing hitters) than to opposing pitchers (and Rockies hitters) – since the opposing teams aren’t necessarily configured this way.  So, why doesn’t this help the Rockies pitcher even more on the road?  It’s just not as noticeable on the road because keeping balls on the ground and tracking them down in the outfield is something that prevents 7 run innings – which aren’t commonplace outside of Coors.

I’m going to take a break from fiction short stories in the month of September.  I need to recharge my creativity a bit for another project.  I’ll definitely be writing new stories in October (and it’s quite possible that I won’t be able to finish out the month of fiction exile).  During September, I’ll make it Open Mike night for fiction writers.  If you want to have a short fiction piece featured, let me know at kosmo@observingcasually.com

Finally, I have made the decision to turn The Cell Window into a novel – and if Hollywood agrees, perhaps even into a feature film 🙂  In general, I don’t mess with a story once I have declared it to be a finished product.  However, over the past several months, quite a few people have suggested lengthening the story, so I’m going to give it a shot.  Those of you who have purchased the short version might end up with a collector’s item if the book is well received.  Haven’t bought a copy yet?  You can get the PDF version, MP3 audio book, or combo edition.  I’d recommend the combo edition, since it is the same price as the plain PDF version.

Week off for Johnny last week as I was on vacation, I will say that I would have had a huge week, and since you cannot see any of my picks (since I did not publish an article) you will have to just take my word for it.

Things we learned last week:

• There is a muddled mess in the rankings, teams like Oklahoma, Texas, and others look really good one week and really average the next
• Nebraska’s red-shirt Freshman QB looked really good and the Huskers defense just cost Jake Locker a bunch of money
• Michigan and Notre Dame have absolutely no defense

Thursday

Miami (FL) @ Pittsburgh (-1.5) – Big East battle. I like the canes. Miami – 28 – Pitt 21

Saturday

Virginia Tech @ Boston College (-2.5) – Virginia Tech has to start playing better one of these days. Va Tech – 21 – BC – 17

Central Florida @ Kansas State (-7.5) – Daniel Thomas for Heisman! K St – 28 – Central Fla – 20

UCLA @ Texas (-21.5) – Wow, where did THAT UCLA team come from last week? Texas is overrated but UCLA has QB issues. Texas 31- UCLA 7

Stanford (-1.5) @ Notre Dame – ND stands for “no defense” Stanford – 34- ND 20

Wake Forest @ Florida State (-19.5) – Which Fla State team will show up? FST – 28 – Wake 10

Nevada (-2.5) @ BYU – Nevada looked really good last week, but this is in Provo….won’t matter. Nevada 35- BYU 20

Kentucky @ Florida (-16.5) – Florida due to get on track – FLA 35- Kentucky – 14

Northern Iowa @ Iowa State (-6.5) – Clones game was closer than indicated last week, but this is the super bowl for UNI gimmie the Clones! IA St 28 – UNI 17

Alabama (-4.5) @ Arkansas – Roll Tide! Bama 28 – Ark 20

South Carolina @ Auburn (-1.5) Lattimore for Heisman! The Frosh looks good! SC – 24 – Auburn – 21

Oregon State @ Boise State (-16.5) Wow big spread, I like the Broncos but not to cover. Boise St – 30 – Ore St 20

West Virginia @ LSU (-5.5) – West Virginia can’t hang with the big boys….LSU 21- WV – 14

California @ Arizona (-4.5) – Will it be a let down week for zona…don’t bet on it. Ari – 28 – Cal 21

Oregon (-10.5) @ Arizona State – Oregon is like watching video game football. Ore 49 – ASU – 17

It’s the 19th of September, and only two division leaders in baseball have a lead of less than 4 games.  One of the tight races is in the AL East, where the Yankees hold a 1 1/2 game lead over the Devil Rays.  There is a nice consolation price for the loser of that race – the Devil Rays currently hold a 6 1/2 game lead over the Red Sox for the Wild Card.

The other tight race is in the NL West, where the Giants hold a 1/2 game lead over the Padres and a 1 1/2 game lead over the Rockies.  Had the Rockies not squandered a 6-1 lead against the Dodgers on Sunday, this race could be even tighter.  There’s a bit more desperation in the NL West race, because all three teams are a bit behind the Braves in the wild card race (although this could change if the Phillies sweep Atlanta in their series).

All three teams were idle yesterday and return to action in road games today – the Giants against the Cubs, the Padres against the Dodgers, and the Rockies against the Diamondbacks.  This weekend will feature a critical matchup between the Rockies and Giants at Coors Field, while the Padres face NL Central leaders Cincinnati at home. 

In the final week of the season, the Giants will start out with a home series against the Diamondbacks, the Padres will go to Wrigley to face the Cubs, and the Rockies will face the Dodgers at home.  When the calendar flips to October, we’ll see the Rockies traveling to St. Louis to face the always dangerous Albert Pujols and the Cardinals while the Padres and Giants battle in San Francisco.

As you can see, the Cubs, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks will all act as spoilers down the stretch, as they face two of the three division contenders.

Who has the tought row to hoe during the season’s final fortnight?  Well, the Giants get to face the suddenly hot Cubs (winners of six straight) and have to face both the Rockies and Padres.  They do have a three game set against the Diamondbacks that should allow them to pick up some easy wins.

The Padres don’t have a cakewalk either, with series against two division leaders – San Francisco and Cincinnati.  Expect Cincinnati to have the pedal to the metal as they fight for a higher seed in the playoffs.  They are currently the 2 seed and certainly would not want to slip to the 3 seed and lose home field advantage in the first round.

That brings us to the Rockies.  On paper, it’s not a horrible schedule.  They face only one division leader (San Francisco) and those games are at home.  One of their road series is against the Diamondbacks, who are the second worst team in the National League.  They’ll finish with a four game series against a Cardinals team that will likely have nothing to play for.  But on the bad side, the fact that the Padres and Giants finish the season against each other provides an interesting obstacle – if they trail one of the other teams by 2 games with 3 games left to go, it will be impossible for them to make up the gap.  Why?  Because either the Padres or Giants must win at least 2 games in their 3 game series.  Yep – if the Giants lead the Rockies by 2 games and the Padres by 3 games going into the final series, the Rockie would be mathematically eliminated, but the Padres would still be alive.

So, what happens if there is a 3 way tie for the division?  Two of the teams will play an elimination game, with the winner hosting the third team.  The teams will be ranked on their head-to-head records, with the top seed (the Rockies have clinched this) deciding whether they want home field advantage (in both games) or to be the team that waits to face the winner of the first game (but has to travel).

Which is the correct choice?  Teams play better at home than they do on the road, but it’s not a slam dunk to take the home field advantage, since the home team must win two games.  In order for the home team to have the advantage over the team that needs to win just the final road game, there would need to be a 62% probability for the home team to win vs. 38% for the road team (.62*.62 = .3844).  And even though there are a few teams that exceed this rate, it’s also important to note that the home team would need to burn their best available pitcher in the first game, whereas the team-in-waiting would head into the second game fresh and rested.

My gut?  Be the team waiting on the sidelines and take the one road game.

In other (related) news …
My favorite player, Troy Tulowitzki, has been tearing it up lately, with 14 home runs in a 15 game stretch that ended Saturday (he was held without a homer on Sunday).  Tulo had 2 homers in 4 of those games and drove in a stunning 31 games during that stretch.  Hopefully Tulo can kept up the hot hitting down the stretch.

For the second time in recent years, a divorce threatens to tear apart a team in the National League West.  In 2008, Padres owners John and Becky Moores filed for divorce, and a substantial share of the club was sold as a result.  Now it is the Dodgers caught in the crossfire of a divorce.

Frank and Jamie McCourt (no, not the Frank McCourt who wrote Angela’s Ashes) bought the Dodgers in 2004.  Before she was fired (by her husband) at the end of last season, Jamie McCourt, as CEO of the Dodgers, was the highest ranking female executive in baseball (granted, this is a bit easier to accomplish when you own the team).

With the Dodgers a non-factor in the competitive NL West, the focus of Los Angeles is on the marathon divorce trial.  The trial began on August 30th and will pick up again on Monday after a two week recess.  It is expected that legal fees will total $20 million by the time the case concludes.  This is not going to be an amicable settlement.  Both sides are accusing the other of wrongdoing.  Frank McCourt has accused his wife of cheating with her driver.  On the flip side, Jamie’s lawyer are accusing Frank of legal shenanigans with respect to a post-nuptial agreement the couple signed.  There are six copies of the agreement.  Three of them list the Dodgers as Frank’s separate property, the other three do not (in which case they would be joint property).  Forbes has recently pegged the value of the team at $700 million … so you can understand why the two sides are willing to pony up $20 million for the best lawyers money can buy.

Lots of interesting tidbits about the couple are spilling out.  Perhaps the fact that I found the most interesting is that they employed a hairstylist who worked on their hair five days a week – at a staggering cost of $150,000.  How vain must you be to spend that sort of money on your hair?  I spend $0 on haircuts per year.  Heck, I doubt that Warren Buffett spends $150,000 on haircuts annually.  Or $15,000.  Or $1500.  Probably more than I spend, though.

In other news:

The trial of Andrew Gallo began on Monday.  Gallo is charged in the death of Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart and two others as the result of a fatal auto accident in April of 2009.  Gallo was drunk at the time of the accident (registering a .19 blood alcohol content two hours after the accident) and was driving 66 mph in a 35 mph zone.  Gallo had previously been convicted of DUI and had signed an agreement acknowledging that if he caused a fatal accident while under the influence, he would be charged with murder.  Because of this agreement, Gallo is being charged with 2nd degree murder.

The defense attorney in the case is accusing the DA of overcharging Gallo because Adenhart was a celebrity.  The DA countered by saying that 10 drunk driving cases have been prosecuted as murders since 2008.

Personally, I think it makes perfect sense to charge Gallo with murder.  He was clearly aware of the consequences of his actions, since he had previously been notified that this sort of accident would result in a murder charge against him.  He killed three people, was driving 30 mph above the speed limit, and had a blood alcohol level more than two times the legal limit (again, this was two hours after the accident – the level would have been even higher than the .19 at the time of the accident).  Celebrity victim or not, this is EXACTLY the sort of case that should trigger California’s “DUI as murder” statute.

In closing, I’ll turn this into a short public service announcement.  If you think you have a drinking problem, you’re probably right.  Seek help, either through a doctor or an organization such as Alcoholics Anonymous.  It’s not too late to get help.