The SoapBoxers

Tim Lincecum has been freaskishly bad in 2012.

Before the season began, the Giants knew they would be without Brian Wilson, their effective – and more importantly, quirky – closer.

Then the calendar flipped to April.  Tim Lincecum, a two time Cy Young award winner who should be in the heart of his peak years, began pitching like utter crap, and finished the season with an ERA above 5.00.

Outfielder Melky Cabrera provided a spark early in the year, racing toward a batting title.  Then Melky got popped for performance enhancing drugs and was banned 50 games.  He’d be eligible to return in the middle of the playoffs, but the Giants opted not to add him to the roster.  This decision was probably partially due to not wanting the stench of PEDs to waft over the team’s post-season success, but also because it would mean Cabrera would be having to re-acclimate himself to Major League pitching during the playoffs – not a good thing.

Then the playoffs began, and the Giants quickly lost two games to the Reds.  Then they had to go on the road and try to win the next three games.  Which they did.

Then they faced off against the Cardinals.  They got down three games to one, and once again faced elimination three games in a row – and won all three games to win the series four games to three.  Italian-bred and Venezuelan-born infield Marco “Polo” Scutaro arose from the ashes of a hard Matt Holliday slide in game two to be named the NLCS MVP, recording a record-tying 14 hits in the series.

Now the Giants, after just one day off, face the well-rested Detroit Tigers in the World Series.  The Tigers have Justin Verlander on the mound, and the Giants match him with … Barry Zito.  The much-maligned and overpaid Zito is forced into the role because the Giants had to use Matt Cain in the NLCS game 7 on Monday.

On paper, this is a huge advantage for the Tigers.  They can start Verlander in games 1 and 5 and should have a great shot at winning both those games.  Win just one of the other three games and they’d have a 3-2 lead after five games.  Get some well place rain that causes extra off days and it’s possible Verlander could pitch games 1, 4, and 7.  Or manager Jim Leyland might just pitch Verlander on short rest and run him out in games 4 and 7 anyway.  On paper, that’s a huge advantage for the Tigers.

But baseball isn’t played on paper, and the Giants seem to be a team of destiny.  My prediction: Giants win, with Barry Zito the World Series MVP.  Zito will pick up wins in games 1 and 5, and pitch the 14th inning of game 7 for the save.  Zito’s stats for the World Series: 5 and 1 run in 16 innings, for a 0.56 ERA.

Where did Geno’s Heisman Go?

A few weeks ago, I like many of the other sports aficionado’s had declared the Heisman Trophy all but won by West Virginia’s Geno Smith.

Boy was I wrong…..

It never ceases to amaze me how in the world of college football, things can change so quickly.

Who saw these things happening?

At the start of the season, Michigan State looked like the favorite to win the Big 10 Conference after knocking off the Boise State Broncos in the opener, and Le’Veon Bell carry the ball 225 times for like 565 yards. Update – Sparty then loses 4 of the next 7 games and is basically out of it and waiting for Izzo to take the floor to get renewed hope.

Kansas State looked like a “nice” team in the B ig 12 Conference. Bill Snyder, aka Methuselah had resurrected the Cats of the bowels of despair (also known as the Ron Prince experiment) and was set for a decent year. Update – A decent year is being undefeated, having the current Heisman front runner – Colin Klein – leading your team, and being undefeated and currently #3 in the BCS rankings.

Gene Chizik (left) in happier days.

The Auburn Tigers – Just a short time ago Cam Newton was taking his expensive brand of college football quarterbacking and leading the club to a National Title. Now, Auburn shows up as #100 in the USA Today ranking of teams from 1-124 in Division 1. Auburn went 8-5 last year and coach Gene Chizik was expecting a better year in 2012 with 16 returning starters. Update – Auburn fans are figuring out what Iowa State already knew…..it is fine if this guy leaves. Chizik left town for greener pastures when he left Iowa State overall Clones fans would say they are better off with Paul Rhoads.  Auburn meanwhile is 1-6 this year and 0-5 in conference play.

I had to give a shout out to Auburn fans here – as they seem to like my article on recruiting which has been getting some play on message boards in War Eagle country.

Notre Dame is undefeated.  Man did I miss this one, of course Coach Kelly hangs his hat on a slew of wins over ranked teams. Let me re-cap – Michigan State – Top 10 at the time but now has a losing record. The hot and cold Michigan team that had 28 turnovers in the red zone to lose to the Golden Domers. The ol leprechaun’s got the Luck of the Irish – AGAIN – against Stanford – whose running back Stepfan Taylor still hasn’t hit the ground. This week they looked un-inspired in a narrow win over BYU. Update –I am going on record that Boomer Sooner will roll one up on this over-rated team. Of course I could be completely wrong as frankly Oklahoma can be pretty average as well (see loss to Kansas State). Coach Stoops has a way of losing the big one, but I predict this will look more like the game against Texas than the turnover plagued loss to the Wildcats.

It was the Dukes it was the Dukes….

Hold onto your hats….the Blue Devils are BOWL ELIGIBLE. That is right. We are talking about Duke. They have David Cutcliffe at the helm and he has led Duke to a place they have not been both literally and figuratively in forever. Duke went uninspiring 19-117 in the dozen years before the arrival of their head honcho. This will make their first chance to head to a bowl game since 1994 and only the third time since 1961. The last time they were in this position they were coached by the Old Ball coach himself, Steve Spurrier.

A lot of tough games for them the rest of the way, as they have to still play the Seminoles, but this is the first time in a long time the Cameron Crazies maybe are not ready to sleep in tents to see Coach K’s boys just yet.

The more things change, the more they stay the same….

I have to offer a written “Shout Out” to an old friend who I tailgated and attended the Northwestern vs. Nebraska game with this past weekend in Evanston. I have had the pleasure of seeing two of the more exciting college games in person while travelling with my buddy Terry. (We also went to the Missouri vs. Nebraska infamous “kickeroooskie” game in 1997 together) As always we had a great time and we picked up right where we last left off, the last time we went to a game together some 4 years ago. One thing is true about Nebraska Fans, they travel like no others. The stadium at Ryan Field (PS Northwestern Athletic Department – you have plenty of money at your University…how about some facility upgrades. Port-a-potties at the stadium….really???) was at least 50% Nebraska fans.

There really is no place like Nebraska…or any fans like their fans. Now go bring home a win against Michigan.

If they do, I just might cease to be amazed.

Until Next Time – Stay Classy Union Grove, Wisconsin

We are hitting the movies again, so here is another movie review. This week we saw Hope Springs. The movie stars Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones and Steve Carell. You will recognize a lot of other actors and actresses throughout the movie in bit parts. The most intriguing aspect in this movie is the reversal of roles. Steve Carell is the serious character with Meryl and Tommy being the comics. Tommy has had experience being the straight man in comic movies throughout the Men In Black series, but in this movie, he is the comedian. His delivery, facial expressions, responses to dialog and situations is supurb. Meryl continues to be the best older lady actress, playing her age. I would rate this as a third success following The Iron Lady and July & Julia.

The trailer sets up the action as an older couple in the doldrums of a boring marriage. The wife decides to spice things up. After reading a self help book, she pays for a marriage counseling session. The couple live in Omaha (and from the scenery, it looks like they actually filmed in Omaha) and the counselor is in Maine (again it looks like if was filmed on location). The wife drives the husband into attending and the action moves on from there.

The advertisements and even the movie suggest that the problems are all because of Tommy Lee’s character. As the story unwinds, there are plenty of problems for each to solve. The attempts at physical reconciliation are well played, along with the deeper character development. This is a good movie, especially for the over 40 crowd. Teenagers may be disturbed to find out that their parents and even their grandparents might still be sexually active.

I would recommend full price theatre, but if you missed it, pick it up on video or at the discount theatres.

Next week I hope to have seen Hotel Transylvania.

Shortly after the last debate, I starting seeing “Binders full of women” meme’s popping up all over my Facebook news feed. I didn’t understand where that phrase was coming from, and I had even watched the debate. And then, on the news, I saw the phrase that Mitt spoke. Again, I thought ‘So what’? He had a binder full of women who had worked for him.

After thinking about it, I realized, the liberals have got to have something to point and laugh at….distract everyone with. Because we all know Obama (and his supporters) don’t want to talk about his record. Who would? High unemployment, lower credit rating, soaring spending and the gigantic National debt. This is just another distraction from the left.

Honestly, I’d rather be in Mitt’s binder of women who work for/with him than in Obama’s binder of those on welfare list.

Women aren’t stupid, we get it. We make less than men (including in Obama’s administration). We’ve seen Obama’s idea/insult to women with his “Life of Julia” where a woman is dependent on the Government for everything and every stage in her life.

Thanks, Obama, but no thanks. I can take care of myself. I’m not distracted by the free birth control, the slamming the Conservatives claiming they’re the ones waging the “War on Woman” …I could go on and on.

To me it seems the only actual “War on Women” are those who are not yet born. What about those binders full of babies who were never given the chance to live?

Think about it. Don’t buy into their distractions. Let’s talk about the issues instead of birth control pills or binders.

BPA is bad for you, we’ve been told.  It was banned from baby bottles in the US and Canada.  Then came an even bigger scare – a study that showed that a mother eating food packaged in BPA could cause lower thyroid levels in boys!

The something funny happened.  Concerned parent Sarah points out that the government of Canada released a study that says that consuming products packaged in BPA does not cause a health risk.

Sarah asks whom we would trust – the researcher who is dependent on grant money or the government of Canada.

I’ll take this even a step further and point out the existence of what is known as “publication bias”.  The studies that appear in journals – and thus are far more likely to end up in the mainstream media or be noticed by legislators – are more likely to be the results that are shocking or unexpected.

For example, let’s say that we’re studying whether or not drinking a quart of orange juice every day can prevent the growth of tumors.  Ninety nine studies do not show any link, but one study appears to show that drinking the orange juice does indeed prevent the tumors from growing.  Guess which one is going to end up in a scientific journal?  Certainly not one of the boring ones – the one with the surprising result is going to be published.

A basic concept with science is that an experiment must be repeatable by other scientists before the results can be considered valid.  This is to prevent unrelated factors (such as human error) from creating the result. 

The same concept applies to scientific studies.  When one study appears to shop a certain result, it’s very difficult to know of this is causation or merely correlation.  It’s possible that the result could be attributed to other factors, or even to selection bias.  In our hypothetical orange juice – cancer study, perhaps the control group and experimental group were located in different geographical areas.  The OJ drinkers received treatment at one hospital whereas the non-drinkers received treatment at another.  It’s possible that the OJ doctors were simply more effective in treating cancer, and that the orange juice really had no effect.

In a nutshell, exercise caution when you read about scientific studies.  Check to see if there have been other studies on the topic, and check to see what the results of those studies were.  Look at the entire body of work on the topic, in other words, and not just one study.  We’re in an age where we research topics with just a click of the mouse.  Put that power to work for you and become more educated on the topics you care about!

Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter broke his ankle in the 12th inning of Saturday night’s ALCS opener.  Would the ankle have remained intact if the game had gone just nine innings – or was there previous stress that would have resulted in a break at a later point?  It’s a moot point for the Yankees, as they’re without their captain.  After losing again on Sunday night, the Yankees are down 2-0 and heading to Detroit for three games.  Oh, yeah – they’ll face Tigers ace Justin Verlander in the next game.

It’s no surprise that the Yankees are down 2-0 to the Tigers.  Even with the help of steroids, they’re giving up a good 60 pounds per man across the offensive line.  With Fielder at center and Cabrera at left tackle, the Yankees D-line isn’t ever going to get a hit against Verlander.  Oh, sorry, wrong sport.  Seriously, though, those guys are huge for baseball players.  If you’re wondering which city has the best restaurants, don’t overlook Detroit.  Those guys are eating well.

Jeter’s value had been the subject of much debate over the years.  Much of the discussion has revolved around his defense.  Yankee fans will point to error total and gold gloves and say he’s a good defender.  Others will point to advanced defensive metrics which rank him mediocre or worse.

But is Jeter’s post-season offense also overrated?

We always hear that A-Rod chokes in the post-season and that Jeter shines.  Jeter’s career post-season OPS is .838.  How bad is the OPS of the legendary choker, Alex Rodriguez?  .838.  Jeter’s had some great post-season series, but he’s also had a few stinkers over the years.  However, his legacy was established early in his career, as his reputation precedes him at this point.

An argument that you might hear is that Jeter ranks highly in many career post-season statistical categories.  This is true.  He’s first in hits, runs, total bases, doubles and triples while ranking in the top five in homers, RBI, and walks.

However, let’s not overlook one big aspect of Jeter’s numbers: opportunity.  Not only has he been fortunate to play on many successful teams, but the post-season is longer than it was in the past.  Prior to division play in 1969, there were a maximum of 7 post-season games per year – The World Series.  In 1969, this jumped to 12 possible games per player before jumping to 19 in 1995.  The coin flip game now makes it possible for someone to play in 20 games during a single post-season.

Yogi Berra famously won 10 World Series titles as a member of the Yankees.  He was also on the losting side 4 times.  Her compiled 295 post-season plate appearances in 77 games – incredible numbers for his era.  Derek Jeter has 734 plate appearances in 158 post-season games.  That’s a full season of games, just in the post-season.  He has more post-season homers (20) than Reggie Jackson (18) or Babe Ruth (15), but it would be silly to argue that he was a better slugger.  Does he have more shining post-season moments than nearly anyone else?  Sure – but he also has more ordinary moments.

Jeter’s 734 post-season plate appearances are by far the most in history.  Bernie Williams is second with 545, Manny Ramirez is third with 493, Jorge Posada is 4th with 492 (anyone noticing a trend?).  In fact, only seven other players have half as many post-season at bats as Jeter.

Don’t get me wrong – Jeter has made the most of his opportunities.  But he has also been the beneficiary of a massive amount of opportunities over the years.  Jeter also is the runaway leader is strikeouts – not because he sucks, but because he’s had more opportunity to strike out.

Likewise, he’s also had more opportunity to get injured … and random chance finally got Jeter on Saturday night.

I have written several articles on the various activities in the middle east that are general associated as the Arab spring. There have been calls for intervention in every location that has had violence. The United States chose not to intervene in Egypt. The choice was to provide air cover for the rebels in Libya. There has apparently been no decision to intervene in Syria, at least not yet. I have taken the stance that the United States should not intervene in any of these conflicts.

Yes, innocent people are being injured and killed. Yes, the existing governments are cruel and corrupt. No, it is not the responsibility of the United States to beat sense into every country in the world.

I did support intervention in Iraq and in Afghanistan. In Iraq, a sovereign nation, Kuwait, was invaded and asked for assistance. Saudi Arabia felt threatened by Iraq and also asked for assistance. A lot of people forget that the Iraq war was started by Iraq and that Iraq violated every article of the cease fire that they begged for. People also forget that President Bush went back to the United Nations and asked permission to enforce those articles. He did not need to but he did. Instead, the political left claimed he was going in to steal the oil or take revenge for an attempt on the life of former President Bush, his father. Unfortunately, the reason for fighting was confused by the declaration of the presence of weapons of mass destruction. Again, this claim was presented by Iraq, then denied. At least one of the issues that drove the second phase of the Iraq war could easily have been deflated by the Iraqi government simply stating that they had used all of their chemical weapons when they put down protests from their own people. An the evidence of the weapons was found, just downplayed by the political opponents of the president. Now there are birth defects in record numbers in Iraq near the various military bases, and the same people who claimed there were no Iraqi weapons are now trying to claim that the birth defects are the result of the United States using depleted uranium.

In Afghanistan, we had active supporters of a group that attacked the United States. I am not a hawk in general, I feel we should support out friends and defend ourselves. It is also not a point of who is president. I felt that President G.H.W Bush was completely wrong in sending our troops into Somalia, and set President Clinton up for failure. I thought that President Clinton was wrong to get involved in the Balkans, that was a European problem and the Europeans should have taken care of it. I praised President Obama for not taking action in Egypt. We may not like the group in charge, but it is not our problem. I criticized President Obama for intervening in Libya. Sure the guy we hated is gone, but what of the groups now competing for power? We have a dead ambassador, possibly killed with weapons that the United States provided.

The biggest problem with civil wars is that as an outsider, we do not know who the good guys are, or even if there are any good guys. We can generally identify the innocent victims by seeing who is dead and who has guns. We do not want other countries to tell us what government or leader we have, and I think that we should have the same stance for others. The original call for action in Syria was from the national press. The second wave came from the “internation community” basically people who wanted the United States to spend its blood and treasure on their fight. Now we have calls from Senator McCain and other in congress. In my opinion, they are just plain wrong and I hope that President Obama does not buckle under the pressure to act.

When John L. Smith’s financial woes made the news, it was reported that the Arkansas football coach owed $25 million in debts related to bad real estate deals.  Later court filings showed that this figure was not accurate.  Smith actually owed $40 million.  Prior to this year, Smith’s highest salary was $1.35 million at Michigan State in 2002.  recently, he’d been earning $130,000 as the head coach at Weber State.

How could Smith manage to incur $40 million in debt?  That’s a great question.  It definitely seems like some bankers were asleep at the wheel when they gave Smith loans.  Could an average Joe get loans for such a high multiple of their annual income?  I doubt it.

If the bankruptcy court discharges Smith’s debts, he’ll wash his hands of them and begin anew.

Smith is 53, and if successful, could conceivable have around 15 more years of coaching left.  He could earn $20-$30 million during that time – with none of it going toward his creditors.

Does that seem right to you?  What this precedent would do is set up a win-win proposition for people like Smith.  These people would essentially be playing with house money.  They’d keep all the money they win but get other people to pay for their losses.

“Wait a minute,” you say.  “Maybe Smith will make an honest effort to pay back his creditors.  Maybe he just needs some time to straighten things out.”

That’s a noble thought – but you need to pick a different hero.  We recently found out that Smith deferred 70% of his 2012 salary.  Why?  To make it more difficult for is creditors to get at they money.  The bankruptcy court may call an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Smith and force him to reach a repayment plan with his creditors – a plan that would garnish his salary.

A footbal coach, of course, it a leader of young men – someone who will mold them.  Perhaps some parents should have second thoughts about sending their sons to play football at Arkansas.

Bobby Petrino left Arkansas in disgrace, but I’m not sure that the Razorbacks traded up when they go John L. Smith.

The NRA, the National Rifle Association. It was formed in 1871 out of Union Civil War veterans in New York state, partly because Union small arms accuracy had been so atrocious during the war – it was rumored that for every 1000 shots fired, a Union soldier would hit once. According to their charter, they advocate for “the protection of the Second Amendment of the United States Bill of Rights, and the promotion of firearm ownership rights as well as marksmanship, firearm safety, and the protection of hunting and self-defense in the United States.”

The NRA has a widespread reputation for being a lobbying group as well, with members of Congress ranking it the most powerful lobbying organization in American politics. In 1980 the organization made their first endorsement of a presidential candidate, endorsing Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter. I have zero problem with this, as one of Carter’s cabinet members was a very strong proponent of gun control, and this group seeks to uphold the second amendment – I.E. the organization was endorsing the candidate which had clearly demonstrated in the past to have values most similar with the NRA. In addition, the NRA has publicly stated that they will endorse an incumbent candidate every time in an area where both candidates are similar on their gun control and second amendment philosophies.

Recently in four “battleground” states, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, the NRA has starting airing an advertisement urging voters to defeat Barack Obama. President Obama, the incumbent (and remember how the NRA feels about incumbents) has generally left gun laws alone, and in fact is in favor more on the side of state and municipality rights over federal rights on gun control.  Mitt Romney, on the other hand, actually signed into law an assault rifle ban while governor of Massachusetts. Not surprisingly, Mr. Romney has moved away from his tough stance on gun control – see my previous article for many more examples of issues where Mitt Romney has done a 180. In addition, Mr. Romney has previously said he was a full supporter of Massachusetts’ tough laws on gun control and said, “That’s not going to make me the hero of the NRA.”

So I’m curious, if President Obama has largely left existing gun laws intact, and in addition he legalized carrying concealed weapons in national parks and in checked luggage on Amtrak trains, why is the NRA endorsing Romney?   Even if they were identical in history, (because with Romney you can’t count what he’s done or said in the past, he’ll just contradict it) wouldn’t the NRA – according to their own policy – support President Obama in this case because he’s the incumbent? Paul Ryan – Romney’s own VP pick – said, “I don’t even think President Obama is proposing more gun laws.”

It’s sad to see that the NRA has moved beyond their historical and charter issues to become a purely political organization. If you’re really paying attention to the facts and you wanted to vote on 2nd amendment and gun control issues alone, Obama would be the choice in this case. President Obama has had plenty of chances to use public sentiment to push anti-gun control law: Gabby Giffords, the mass shooting in Aurora, and the Illinois mosque shooting, sadly just to name a few. He hasn’t, though. That leaves two reasons why they’ve endorsed Mitt Romney, either they’re buying into the right-wing hype with despite a lack of facts and are scared Obama is going to do something, or they’ve decided they’d rather disregard their purpose and just become a purely political organization.

The lack of coverage of the Triple Crown in the American League this year is total proof that baseball is no longer America’s Pastime. Instead baseball has been relegated to American history.

The only Triple Crown most anyone knows about outside of baseball aficionados is that involving the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont.

The king of the hill is now clearly the juggernaut known as football. American’s crave the gladiator style, fast paced action that only football can bring. Baseball in comparison is slow with action, the fielders stand around the entire time except when the ball is put into play. The antics of the batter box and the pitchers have delayed the games even more. Also baseball has gotten too specialized, no longer do players pitch complete games nor play double headers that often. No, baseball is no longer the game of a by-gone radio era, it is now made for TV entertainment, although not many are watching.

It Was a Very Good Year……

The last Triple Crown winner was Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Yaz’s meteoric climb to popularity was due to a number of factors.

First he played for the Boston Red Sox. Not that the Beantowners were as popular back in the 50’s and 60’s as they are today, but remember baseball had much fewer teams then, and Boston was one of the more popular teams, mainly due to the heavily populated Northeast.

Second, Yaz also followed Ted Williams, arguably the best hitter of all time and surely on everyone’s list as a starter on any All-Time baseball team you want to put together. Williams left an irreplaceable hole in the hearts of Boston fans. After all he had won the MVP twice, was a two time triple crown winner and 19 time all-star. Yaz would never be able to replace Williams, but he did his best to try.

Thirdly Yaz played his entire career with the Red Sox, and was an 18 time all-star, won the MVP and Triple Crown in 1967 and is a member of the 3000 hit club. The 1967 season is the main reason he is still revered in Massachusetts. 1967 was a magical season for the normally down-trodden Sox, and added to the allure of Yastrzemski popularity.

The Red Sox finished 9th place in the division the year before, and were in a tight race with the Minnesota Twins and the Detroit Tigers as the season came to a close. He hit an amazing .521 with 5 homers and 16 rbi in the last two weeks of the season propelling the Sox to the World Series where they eventually lost to the St. Louis Cardinals. Yaz was the main that almost single handedly carried Boston all the way to the title, and the fans never forgot that.

Pride or Prejudice?

Cabrera faces a slug of uphill factors in his chance to cash in on this monumental accomplishment. The media is not giving it much coverage because, let’s face it, Detroit is not a sexy baseball town, and he does not speak English as his primary language. I am surprised that no sports reporters have mentioned this fact. We all like to claim that things such as race and prejudice no longer have a place in sports or society today, but the reality is they still do. It will be interesting to see how the people who vote on the MVP will choose this year. They have a tough decision.

Mike Trout, of the Angels is getting just as much if not more media attention this year in the face of the biggest accomplishments in the Major Leagues in almost 5 decades. Mike Trout is 21 years old, is an American and looks to have a bright future ahead of him. He has done some things this year that put him on the list of all-time greatest seasons. Will he get the nod for the MVP vote, or will it be Cabrera?

Only 12 people have ever won a triple crown. That is less than the number of 500 Home Run club members, 3000 hit listers, 300 game winners and pitchers that have thrown perfect games.

Four times the Triple Crown Winner has not also won the MVP award. The last time that happened, Ted Williams lost out to Joe DiMaggio in 1947.

Only the votes remain, it will be an interest ballot to be cast by the Baseball Writers Association of America.

Until next time, stay classy Millville, Ohio