The SoapBoxers

Typically my article focuses on past or current events in the Middle East so I figured this time I would toss out a curveball and try to predict the future. More specifically I wanted to look at the where I think the Middle East will be at the end of President Obama’s first term. My focus will be the future of Israel, Iraq and Iran.

I think the future of Iraq is becoming fairly clear to most. The war in Iraq seems to have been a mistake for the United States as it sucked a lot of military resources from places of larger need and created too many broken families back home. For Iraq it may prove to be a mistake as I think the country will be left leaderless in the short term which could toss it into chaos as the US forces pull out. For the region it was a mistake as for good or bad Iraq provided a balance of power to Iran which will now will become unbalanced. So in three years I see the country as leaderless, without the protection of the US army and tail spinning into disaster. This normally creates the perfect storm for an extremist leader to come to power and basically put the country back on path to where it was ten years ago.

As for Iran, I believe the outlook to be much brighter, from their perspective anyway. Iran will become a nuclear power in the next three years. The efforts being put forth currently by the UN and US will be ineffective as Obama is not militant enough to make any realistic threats. In my opinion, this actually creates the most concern for Iran’s Arab neighbors and not Israel. Despite what most think the Arabs have a lot of internal conflicts and I could see Iran using a nuclear weapon on its Arab enemies. Israel is already a nuclear power so I believe that Iran will only use their nuclear power in rhetoric to threaten Israel but by default will actually have more of a “mutually assured destruction” mentality with neither side willing to commit suicide just to eliminate the other.

My second to last prediction is that Ahmadinejad will lose his seat in government. I think his course has run and his usefulness is diminishing. Besides popular belief he is a puppet character that is useful in taking international heat but yield little power. Lastly, the world will see more outbursts of human rights violations similar to what happened after the elections. Iran has never been a nice place but till now things like the war with Iraq and now the nuclear issue detracted from bigger issues facing Iran. With Iraq being eliminated as a super power and Iran going nuclear there will be no bigger storyline then human rights.

Lastly, Israel will probably be sitting in the same place as it currently sits. The economy will keep chugging along, settlements will be built and they will have to deal with terrorist attacks. The two places that I think Israel may make headway on are the way they deal with terrorists and their negotiation with the Palestinians. I believe, Israel is slowly learning that they can be harsh with terrorists and then simply dismiss bad press from things like tainted UN commissions. Israel is realizing that its own security is more important than public image. On the other hand I think Israel still does not realize how to deal with the Palestinians so in the next three years I predict more unbalanced deals, more concessions and no closer to peace.

Hope you all enjoyed, feel free to comment as this is not history but predictions so there is lots of room for error on my side.

For whatever reason, part 1 isn’t showing up in the table of contents. To start from the beginning, go here.

Jaymi watched the calendar for the next two weeks, anxiously awaiting the arrival of the 14th. After what seemed like an eternity, the day finally arrived. There was an extra skip in her step when she arrived at work that afternoon. Toward the end of the evening, Ray’s rig pulled into the parking lot, and he hopped out. Once again, Jaymi offered to make him supper at home, and Ray sipped coffee while the waited for closing time to arrive. Ray helped out with a few of the tasks at closing time, and they headed back to Jaymi’s house.

Jaymi had started a pot roast in the crock pot earlier in the day, and it was cooked to perfection when they arrived. The two of them sat at the kitchen table, enjoying the pot roasts and talking about the events that had shaped their lives in the last couple of weeks.

After eating, they went into a living room and flipped on the TV, which was featuring a movie that both of them had seen before. They each settled into an easy chair and mixed conversation in with the movie viewing. After a while, Jaymi began to notice that the conversation starting to become quite one-sided, and Ray’s responses gradually became less coherent. Eventually, he lapsed into complete silence, and Jaymi realized that he had fallen asleep. She nudged him into a somewhat awakened state, assisted him into bed, and tucked him in for the night. This guy was tired.

Ray and Jaymi spent a lazy morning together. They ate cereal and watched cartoons. They headed to Jaymi’s restaurant for lunch before heading to the movie theatre in the next town for a matinee. The movie was a chick flick that Jaymi had wanted to see. Ray said that he didn’t mind, and Jaymi noticed that he did seem to be enjoying the movie.

After the movie, they went to one of the better restaurants in town. They both had the same meal – ribeye medium rare, baked potato with butter and sour cream, and a house salad with French dressing. They lingered a bit over dessert, sharing a decadently chocolaty treat.

When they arrived back at Jaymi’s house, they decided to relax with the nice, friendly, competitive game of Scrabble. The game was neck and neck until the very end, when Ray played “dowagers” on a quadruple word square to put the game out of reach. Jaymi threw the rest of her tiles at him in mock frustration, ceding the game to him. Ray ducked and managed to avoid most of the letters, but a Q smacked him squarely in the head. He laughed and put the pieces back into the box.

Jaymi took Ray to bed with her that night. Meaning that they slid under the covers and watched Saturday Night Live together. On this night, it was Jaymi who fell asleep first, just a few minutes after Seth and Amy had brought them Weekend Update. When Ray noticed that she was asleep, he flipped off the TV and turned off the lamp. Soon he too was asleep.

The next morning, Jaymi drove Ray to the restaurant, where he would be jumping back into his truck and heading down the road. When Ray went to grab his bag, he noticed an extraneous bag in the trunk next to it. Ray was fairly certain that he did not own a bright pink duffel bag.

“What’s the extra bag for?” Ray asked.

“Take me along.”

Ray laughed. “I can’t. You can’t take off work.”

“Sure I can,” replied Jaymi. “I cleared it with the boss. I’m on vacation until the 22nd.”

“Oh, I see. So this was all part of your master plan.”

Jaymi nodded and hopped up in the cab.

4Info is a wonderful, and largely free, service that allows people to get all kinds of updates on their cell phones via text messages (note: they do charge for some of their content). I reviewed them on The Soap Boxers a while ago, and I am a big fan. I get lots of sports scores via 4info, and also get the result of every Troy Tulowitzki at bat.

Verizon Wireless, the nation’s largest wireless carrier, has launched a frontal attack against 4Info. As of Friday night, it began blocking calls sent via 4Info’s 44636 short code. This apparently is related to a Verizon policy about ads in text messages, although it appears that 4Info is being singled out, while other providers are not. 4Info’s CEO indicates that a new short code will be available perhaps as early as Monday, but I am concerned that Verizon will simply block the new short code as well.

It is important to note that the users of this service are fully aware of the fact that they will be receiving ads in the text messages. This is the reason why many of 4Info’s service are free – because the advertisers are footing the bill. The ads themselves are rather unobtrusive. At the bottom of a recent sports score is the ad “Gift ideas from Best Buy”, followed by a URL that will take you to that ad. Another message has an ad from Robitussin. I personally have never followed the link to any of the sites, but I have absolutely no problem with the ads. Knowing that Troy Tulowitzki hit a home run a minute ago is well worth the cost of seeing an ad on the bottom of my cell phone.

If you’re a Verizon customer, call and complain. If your neighbor’s teenager can send a thousand text messages a month to their friends, there is no valid reason to deprive you of your messages from 4Info. I suspect that this is an attempt at a money grab on the part of Verizon – in spite of the fact that people are already paying for text messaging (either a la carte, or baked into the cost of their packages). If you are thinking about switching to Verizon, take a moment to re-think your decision. Even if the 4Info issue doesn’t personally affect you, do you want to do business with a company that pulls these sorts of shenanigans? I certainly wouldn’t.

(at this point, we shift gears and become an anti-Verizon rant)

It really doesn’t surprise me that Verizon is the company in the middle of this. Honestly, I’m not impressed with the company. About a decade ago, I tried (and failed) to get DSL through Verizon. I work in IT, and have a very good working knowledge of networking. It was quite obvious that the problem was on their end. I spent hours on the phone with them one weekend trying to get the problem resolved. I was given the complete runaround, bounced from one area to another (and other times having me perform actions that obviously would not fix the problem). Of course, I had to repeat the information every time – this COMMUNICATION company apparently had no way to COMMUNICATE this information via some sort of problem tracking system. Finally, I gave up and canceled the order. I went back to dial-up.

I was given two options for returning the DSL modem. They could send me a box through the mail, or I could drop it off at the local Verizon Phone Mart. I decided to make it easy for them (big mistake) and save them the shipping by dropping it off at the store. The people at the Verizon Phone Mart seemed a bit perplexed at what to do, but took the modem.

A week later, I got a call from Verizon Phone Mart. They still had no idea what to do with the modem, and wanted me to pick it up. I told them that I’d contact the Verizon DSL people and ask them to contact the store. When I contacted the Verizon DSL people, they agreed to contact the store and assured me that this would be no problem. Awesome. Problem solved, right?

A week later, I get another call. The Verizon Phone Mart never got a call. Yeah, the DSL people essentially blew off someone in their own company. So I picked up a modem and arranged for Verizon to send me a box (at their expense).

And then there was the billing. For months afterwards, I was billed for service I had canceled. Every month I’d call, and the charge would be removed – only to appear the next month. Finally, one month, in an avalanche of strange credits on my bill, the charge went away and never returned. Of course, they even made a mistake on this bill. They actually credited me slightly too much. I’m normally a pretty honest guy – if a cashier doesn’t scan an item, I’ll point it out. This time, however, I kept my mouth shut. I was afraid that if anyone tried to fix this, they’d make a massive mistake and my bill would be messed up for the next year. I might be willing to spend hours on the phone convincing them that they owed me money, but I certainly wasn’t willing to spend hours on the phone convincing them that they owed ME money.

Welcome to The Soap Boxers.  If you drifted here from Lazy Man and Money, feel free to take a look around.  We’re not a niche  blog, but more of a broad based web magazine.  We cover news, sports, domestic and mideast politics, and much more.  Every Friday brings a new fiction short story.  So explore the archives, subscribe to our RSS feed, or simply stop by again tomorrow.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day with us.

This is the second part of a three part story.  Catch the conclusion tomorrow.

“Sit down, relax, and watch some TV. I’ll whip up some vittles for you. Burgers OK?”

“Yeah, burgers would be great” replied Ray, and he sank into the comfortable easy chair. He flipped the TV on to ESPN and watched highlights of the games from earlier in the day. It seemed like just a minute had passed before Jaymi appeared at his side, holding a plate with two burgers.

“Hey, you made one with American cheese and one with Swiss,” he remarked. “I like that.”

Jaymi grinned. “Well, you switch back and forth between the two, so I figured I’d give you both. I’m afraid I don’t have any coffee – would you like a Pepsi instead?”

“That would be great. Caffeine is caffeine!”

Jaymi disappeared into the kitchen and returned with a tall glass of Pepsi.

“Hey, you can change the channel to something else,” said Ray.

“No, you go ahead and watch whatever you like. I can watch TV any time.”

“I can’t thank you enough for this. It’s so nice to be inside an actual home for once. This is so much cozier than any restaurant. I definitely owe you a big favor.”

Jaymi laughed. “You supply me with an unending array of books. I think you’re ahead on points.”

“I am simply your humble librarian” replied Ray, with a smile.

When Ray finished the second burger, Jaymi whisked away the plate and put it in the dishwasher.

“I’m afraid I’m going to have to be a bit of a party pooper,” Ray said with a yawn. “This has been an incredibly long day and I’m dead tired.”

“No need to apologize. Let me show you to your room.”

Ray grabbed his bag and followed Jaymi down a narrow hallway. There were two doors at the end of the hallway. Jaymi opened the door on the right.

“Here you go – one nice, soft bed. There are some extra blankets and pillows in the closet. Let me know if you need anything. I’m right across the hall. Oh, yeah – we just passed the bathroom. It’s the other door on the right.”

“Thanks. I should be all set. I do appreciate the hospitality.”

Ray brushed his teeth, climbed under the blankets, and was asleep a few minutes later.

He awoke in the morning and heard noises coming from the kitchen. The noises sounded an awful lot like bacon and eggs frying. Ray climbed out of bed, threw on some clothes, and followed his nose to the kitchen. Jaymi was overseeing bacon and eggs on the stove. She had obviously just stepped out of the shower – she was wearing a pink robe and slippers, and her hair was still damp. Ray noticed that she smelled quite nice.

“Hey, sleepyhead,” she said, turning to face him. “I thought you’d like a nice hot breakfast before you had to hit the road.”

“You’re going to spoil me, Jaymi. Not that I’m complaining.”

Jaymi grabbed a plate, slid two eggs and several slices of juicy bacon onto the plate, and placed it in front of Ray. The toaster popped, and Jaymi grabbed the two slices of toast, butter, and silverware and returned to the table. She sat down across from Ray.

“You’re not eating?” asked Ray. “I can share.”

“No, that’s OK. I don’t usually eat breakfast. It’s fun to watch you eat.”

As Ray devoured the bacon and eggs, he wondered if perhaps the restaurant was not making the best use of Jaymi’s natural skills. It seemed that she was actually a better cook than whoever was actually in the kitchen.

When he finished breakfast, Jaymi had a fresh towel ready for him. He went into the bathroom to take a shower while she went into her bedroom to change into clothes that were more appropriate for the outside world.

Ray turned the water to a near-scalding temperature and soaked in the soothing heat. The showers at the truck stops were usually lukewarm, and it was nice to take a hot shower for once.

When Ray was finished with the shower, he went back to the guest bedroom ad changed into jeans, a t-shirt, and sneakers for the long day ahead. He gathered his minimal possessions, put them in his duffel bag, and zipped it. He took the bag into the living room and settled into the easy chair to wait for Jaymi to appear, so that she could drop him off at the restaurant.

A few minutes later, Jaymi pulled the car into the parking lot. Ray grabbed his bag and they headed toward his truck.

“We should do this again. Maybe you could take a day off the next time you’re in town and we could have a real date.”

“I’d like that,” replied Ray. “Let me grab my schedule and see when I’ll be back in town next.” He jumped into the cab and grabbed a notebook. “It looks like the 14th, and then again on the 21st. I think I can take off the 15th.”

“Sounds great.” Jaymi climbed up next to Ray for a second and kissed him on the cheek. “I’ll see you on the 14th.”

Earlier this week, the Red Sox signed shortstop Marco Scutaro. Scutaro (who has a wicked awesome name) was a “type A” free agent who was formerly with the Toronto Blue Jays. As compensation for losing him, the Blue Jays are entitled to the Red Sox’s 2010 first round draft pick, as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second round (sandwich picks are mysteriously invented and inserted into the draft – very strange).

There is, of course, a twist. If the Red Sox sign a type A free agent with a higher Elias rating than Scutaro, the team losing the higher ranked player would get the first round pick (and a sandwich) and the Blue Jays would get the Red Sox’s second round pick and a sandwich. And if the Red Sox signed TWO higher ranked players, the Blue Jays would get Boston’s third round pick and the sandwich.

Something similar happened to the Blue Jays last year. They lost type A free agent A.J. Burnett to the Yankees, but got their compensatory pick pushed back to the third round when the Yankees signed higher rated players Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia.

In my opinion, the Scutaro signing is the tip of the iceberg for Boston. I think they will go after Matt Holliday very strongly. This would mean that the Cardinals would get their first round pick, and that Toronto would get their second round pick as compensation for Scutaro. Sacrificing a first round pick for a player of Scutaro’s ability seems to be overpaying for the talent. Sacrificing a second rounder seems like a fairer price. Not only that, but Boston would be able to boast a stronger team when they try to woo Holliday.

Clearly, Toronto doesn’t want Boston to sign Holliday, since this would decrease their compensation for Scutaro. In fact, it would be in their best interest to attempt to steer Holliday (and other players rated higher than Scutaro) away from Boston and onto the rosters of other teams.

How would they do this? One thought would be to engage Holliday (or, more likely, his agent, Scott Boras) in discussions, perhaps by making an offer that is not exactly a lowball, but not at the level it will take to sign him either. When the talks reach their inevitable impasse, direct the conversation to topics that make the Red Sox look bad and other suitors look good. Alternately, Toronto could simply leak disturbing rumors to sources in the press.

I don’t mean to suggest that the Blue Jays actually will use these tactics. I really don’t think they will. But the fact of the matter is that the current system would reward them if they were somehow able to sabotage Boston’s signings.

I don’t know what the solution is. Allowing each team to sign only one type A free agent doesn’t seem feasible. Nor would pushing back a compensatory pick into the future (for example, giving Toronto Boston’s 2011 first round pick for Scutaro if they signed Holliday).

Quite honestly, the entire system of compensatory picks is flawed and in need of a serious overhaul. Some of the statistics used in the Elias ratings are problematic.  For example, fielding percentage is one of the stats used to rank catchers.  Catchers are credited with a putout when a pitcher strikes out a batter.  This means that catchers on teams with high strikeout pitchers will have a better fielding percentage than a comparable catcher on a team with groundball pitchers – simply because they have a higher number of “chances”.  Perhaps a worse flaw is that the rating system does not adjust for age. In reality, a 27 year old has more value than a 39 year old with the same stats.

The system is starting to catch a few players who are unrealistically rated as type A. After they decline arbitration, they realize that no team wants to sign them because while they happen to be a fine baseball player, they aren’t worth a first round pick. The current collective bargaining agreement expires in 2011 – perhaps that would be a good time to tear down the current system and build a new one in its place.

Editor’s note: Sometimes, the writer is not in control of a story. This story was supposed to be a simple 500-700 word story for Fiction Friday. The characters, however, refused to go away quite so quickly, insisting on a longer story … which is why this story ended up being 2000 words. Catch part 1 today, part 2 tomorrow, and the conclusion on Sunday.

“Whatcha reading?”

Ray looked up to find the waitress smiling at him. He held the book up for her to see.

“Ah, the latest book by Martin Kelly. I love his stuff. How do you like this one?”

“It’s pretty good,” replied Ray. “In fact, I have just a few pages left. I’ll leave it behind for you to read, if you want.’

“I’d like that,” replied Jaymi with a smile. “You could pick it up the next time you come through town.”

Ray was about to tell her that she could keep the book, since he usually stopped for a bite at the truck stop ten miles to the east, and was only eating at this hole in the wall because the other place for closed for remodeling. Then he thought the better of it. He realized that he really wouldn’t mind seeing Jaymi again.

Ray had a burger and fries before deciding to prolong his stay by ordering a slice of pie. Jaymi topped it with a generous scoop of vanilla ice cream – on the house. Reluctantly, Ray was forced to leave – the road beckoned, and he needed to get his load delivered. He tipped his waitress generously and left behind the book.

Ray made a conscious effort to be finished with his next book before he was scheduled to drive through Springfield again. He ignored the previous truck stop that had been his regular haunt, and ate at the restaurant where Jaymi worked. She seemed pleased to see him. They swapped books – Ray receiving his previous book back and Jaymi receiving a fresh new book to read. After the only other customer in the restaurant left, Jaymi pulled off her apron and sat at across the table from him, and they discussed the plot of Martin Kelly’s book.

Each time Ray drove through Springfield, he’d leave behind a new book and retrieve the previous one. He was quickly becoming Jaymi’s personal bookmobile – but he didn’t mind. A friendship began to grow. Their conversations at first focused on the books that they shared, but eventually spread to many other topics. Ray would share tales from the road, and Jaymi would talk about the people she met in the restaurant.

One night, he pulled into the restaurant a mere twenty minutes before closing time. Jaymi greeted him with her trademark smile.

“How are you, Ray? You look a little tired.”

“Yeah, it’s been a very long day. Once I get a hot meal, I’m going straight back to the truck to grab a good night’s sleep.”

“You know,” commented Jaymi, “I have a spare bedroom. I bet it would feel good to sleep on a real bed for once. And I’m not a half bad cook. If you want to hang around until I get off work at 10, we can go to my place and I could make something for you.”

Ray grinned. “That sounds like a great idea. I’ll just have a coffee.”

Jaymi poured a cup of high test caffeinated coffee from the pot and busied herself with end of day work while Ray enjoyed his hot drink. A half hour later, they pulled up in front of Jaymi’s house – a modest, but well maintained ranch.

Guns kill people. What an ignorant statement. Search the blogs and left news sites and you’ll find an endless number of morons spouting off that statement. Have we become a county of senseless sissies? I think not. There is just a small number of morons out there, but they are unfortunately a loud, obnoxious and never ending stream of gibberish.

I am a former police officer that served in Lincoln, NE a University city of roughly 250,000. I have spent the majority of my life handling and shooting weapons (handguns, rifles and shotguns). I am an NRA member, a concealed weapon carrier and fully support our rights under the 2nd Amendment.

I have spent a lot of time this week thinking about the four police officers in Lakewood, WA that lost their lives. They were taking a break when Maurice Clemmons walked into the coffee shop they were at and ambushed them. I have wondered how differently things would have played out if there had been a citizen in the coffee shop that was in possession of a weapon. Maurice’s ambush was concentrated on the officers which would have easily allowed someone in another part of the business to end the situation immediately. Had the person acted quickly enough, at least one of those police officers may have survived.

I spent a short time living in Illinois where the left wing crowd in Chicago has been able to block any legislation that would allow their citizens to carry concealed weapons. Wisconsin is the only other state in our Union that has not passed any CCW laws. I continue to ask myself why. Why would anyone want to prevent their citizens from legally carrying a weapon when statistics show that it reduces violent crime and saves lives? Do people really think that guns kill people? Do we only want the Maurice Clemmons out there carrying concealed? Remember, it isn’t the felons and criminals taking the time and spending the money to jump through the legal hoops needed to gain a CCW permit. It’s the law abiding citizens that have families to protect, the former law enforcement officers that can make a difference, military personnel and people that have grown up with guns. Why not have a trained and willing pocket of citizens that can help end violent encounters quickly?

Remember, when seconds count the police are just minutes away. I can lend a lot of credibility to that statement. When we filed reports on any incidents, we documented the time that calls came to dispatch, the time the call was given to us (the officer) and when we arrived on location. Folks, don’t be naive; it literally takes minutes to get police officers to your home or business. Here is the process: The call comes in to someone answering the 991 line. That person has to type in the details of the call, document the issue, the location, the caller’s name and prioritize the call. They then send that to a dispatcher that looks to see which officers are available. The dispatcher then calls the officers and they need time to respond. Do you really believe that the officer is just a minute away from your home or place of business? Think of congested traffic, people not noticing those flashing lights or hearing the siren. Think of poor weather conditions slowing traffic. What about when the officers are all on other calls and dispatch is urgently trying to get someone to clear their call? Worse yet, what if the dispatcher has to pull an officer from the other side of the city? These situations are reality.

It’s well documented that states passing CCW laws have reduced murder rates by 8.5%, rapes by 5%, aggravated assaults by 7% and robbery by 3%. Doesn’t that sound like an incentive to you? Don’t you want a safer place to live and work? It only takes a moment to think about the V-Tech shooting, Maurice Clemmons shooting, Fort Hood, etc. There are so many examples where an individual carrying could have ended a bad situation and saved lives. So ask yourself, why do the liberal politicians in our country hate guns so much? Why do they continually say that guns kill people? It isn’t guns that kill people, it’s bad people using guns (or knives, vehicles, etc) that kill people. Do they now want to ban butcher knives, vehicles, ice picks, axes, mallets and ropes for “killing people”?

All states should have CCW laws and reciprocity with other states. Gun Free Zones are just death traps and safe havens for criminals. Don’t you want a chance to survive? Remember that phrase, “When seconds count, the police are just minutes away.” The criminals are going to carry concealed regardless of the law.

Have a Merry Christmas!

Squeaky …

We are on the cusp of the baseball free agent signing season. This means that the vilification of player agent Scott Boras will soon begin in earnest. For those who are somehow unfamiliar with Mr. Boras, he is the premier agent in baseball, representing a cadre of superstar players including Matt Holliday, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and many others.

To say that Boras is a tough negotiator is akin to saying that Warren Buffet has a decent nest egg for his retirement – a gross understatement. Boras is tough as nails, willing to use any tactic as leverage for getting maximum value for his client. His clients rarely give their team a “hometown discount”. Boras client often sign at the very last minute – and often don’t sign, electing instead to return to college (if they are eligible).

Not surprisingly, many teams – and their fans – despise Boras, blaming him for any of all of the problems with the game today. I take exception to that characterization. Boras’ role is not that of some benevolent fan ombudsman. His role is to represent the interests of his clients and ensure that they receive the best possible package of financial and non-financial benefits. He would be derelict in his duties (and a possible target of malpractice suits) if he were to leave money on the table “for the good of the game.”

One thing that seems to get overlooked in the Boras bashing is that salaries for baseball draftees lag behind salaries for top NFL picks. Stephen Strasburg’s contract – paying him $15.1 million over four years (a pro-rated 2009 salary, as well as 2010-2012) – was the subject of much debate over the summer. Many were outraged at the value of the contract.

On the flip side, top NFL draft pick Matthew Stafford (who is just a few months older than Strasburg) signed a six year contract that is worth $72 million (plus an additional $6 million in incentive bonuses) – with $41.7 million in guaranteed money. [Note: unlike baseball contracts, football contracts are not fully guaranteed].

Stafford is definitely a fine football player. However, he is not of the same relative caliber of Strasburg, who is widely regarded as a once-in-a-generation talent. Yet Stafford will walk away with $41.7 million even if he becomes a complete bust (like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, etc before him). If Strasburg busts, he’ll get $15.1 million. So, remind me again why the Strasburg deal is a big travesty and the Stafford deal is business-as-usual?

Baseball teams have long enjoyed the luxury of having more control over a player’s salary than any of the other major sports. For the first hundred years of professional baseball, teams had complete control. Baseball’s “reserve clause” made it possible for teams to re-sign players at whatever salary they wanted. The players were bound to the team for life, so they had minimal leverage. They could refuse to sign a contract, but they couldn’t sign with any other team. Finally, in 1975, the reserve clause was struck down, paving the way for free agency.

In today’s system, players are drafted (or signed as undrafted free agents) by major league teams. They are then signed to what is most often a minor league contract. Essentially, this pays them peanuts during most of their minor league years. The MAXIMUM salary for a player in their first minor league season is $1100/month. They only way for the players to earn any substantial money during their early minor league years is by getting a signing bonus with the contract. For first round picks, this can mean millions of dollars. For players in the later rounds, this can be a few thousand dollars, or nothing at all (usually for players who have no college eligibility remaining, and thus minimal leverage).

After a player reaches the Major Leagues, they are under the team’s control until they have accumulated six seasons of service. Note that this does not simply mean they have been in the Major Leagues during six seasons – it means that they have been on the active roster (or disabled list) for the equivalent of six full seasons. Most often, a player does not become a free agent until after their seventh Major League season (or later).

Players with fewer than three years of service (other than a subset of players we’ll discuss later) can be renewed by their team at a minimum salary, regardless of performance. A player could win the MVP in his rookie season and not get a substantial raise – and could make substantially less than the crappy veteran relief pitcher who has the neighboring locker.

Players with three years of service – as well as the players who are in the top 16% (in terms of service time) of players who have more than two years of service – are eligible for salary arbitration. The player and team submit offers to an arbiter. The arbiter listens to arguments and chooses one of the offers and sets it as the player’s contract for the following year. The arbiter MUST choose one of the numbers – he cannot choose a number in the middle. Players in their arbitration years earn more than in previous years, although they typically earn less than the market rate for their skills.

Finally, after accumulating six years of service – at which point the player is often knocking on the door of age 30 – the player is allowed to become a free agent and may sign with any team.

If a late round pick – one of those guys who signed for a minimal signing bonus – happens to blossom and become a good player (something that happens more often than you might think), he may have spent 4-6 years in a team’s minor league system, and then another six years at the major league level. Finally, after 10-12 years working for a team, he finally had the ability to actually negotiate a contract.

If you waited twelve years for the opportunity to negotiate a contract with your employer, you’d probably want someone like Scott Boras helping you out.

As we had into the college bowl season, (which is coincidentally the best time of the year bar none) I have a few predictions from the cheap seats this week.

The Pac 10 conference technically does not have a championship game, but they do this year. Oregon and Oregon State play in the Civil War. The winner goes to the Rose Bowl. The loser … who the heck knows! Now I am the first to admit that huge rivalry games are tough to predict. Just look at Texas A&M giving Texas all they wanted last week, or Auburn nearly knocking off Alabama. Basically no team is safe in a huge rivalry game.

Oregon is playing too well in my opinion, and are more two dimensional in the run and the pass compared to the Beavers. I give the edge to the Ducks and whatever horrific uniforms Nike decides to sport them in this week. Oregon 41, Oregon State 28

Texas will play host ( who is anyone kidding) to the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Big XII title game held at Jerry’s place in Dallas. Anyone who thinks this is not a home game for the Longhorns is smoking something. The Cornhuskers have been put on a pedestal all week about how great their defense is, and how they will give the Longhorns all they want. Two things give Texas trouble … a mobile quarterback and a team that is willing to take deep shots in the passing game early and often. Nebraska has neither of these things. Even being the Husker Homer that I am, I see a woodshed job here … Texas 42, Nebraska 7

Now we go to the game that everyone in SEC country is waiting for and everyone else is tired of hearing about. Florida and Alabama. This one is close to call but the difference could be the DUI arrest of Carlos Dunlap, who is arguably one of the better defensive players Florida has. Could this be the difference? I hate to pick a winner in this game because I really don’t like either team. So I will go with the Crimson Tide, who I think has a better defense and can grind it at the Gators on the ground, in a close low scoring battle Bama 17, Florida 14

One last note, if you are sports fans are looking for an interesting read, check out Jason Peter’s book Hero of the Underground. It is graphic it is definitive and it is raw and I am guessing lightly edited straight from his mouth account of football, and his spiral in to drug use while in the NFL. It is an easy but entertaining read.

Guest writer Martin Kelly races toward the NaNoWriMo deadline – will he get to 50,000 words by November 30?

This is the third NaNoWriMo writing diary from Martin.  You may also want to read part 1 and part 2.

11/20 – Chapter 23 and 24. I was flying home today. Writing on an airplane is difficult. The guy in front of me was reclined, and I am kind of heavy, so the laptop screen was not at a good angle. I spent most of my hour on the ground in Chicago correcting typing errors from three hours on the air.

In the story, the main character has learned to do something that is very hard for men, he is asking for help. We will have to see how well he accepts the help. At this point, the idea of having him watch like a little kid actually seems quite natural. His mother in law is being nice, on orders from her daughter and husband. The main character is doing his best to be nice to her as well. He of course does not know she is his Nemesis. They are having Thanksgiving. He is complimenting her cooking at every opportunity, and he honestly means it. This is her weak spot, and it is having an effect. She can’t help but enjoy being told how good of a cook she is. His wife also tells her mother that he seems ok with having kids now, that is just one more step to making her like him.

The day following Thanksgiving, black Friday, all of the female characters head off to the city to shop, in this case it is Saint Louis. The main character meets up with his childhood friend. This is a development chapter where you get to learn more about how he grew up. Several of the truths about him, his father and his mother are debunked. He breaks down and empties is heart to his friend; all of his fears, his concerns and what has happened to him. The friend does not believe at first but their common background pulls them together.

11/21 – Chapters 25 and 26. I hit 40,000 words today. It is good to be home, but I had to plan my writing time. Both chapters are rather short. More development and a return of the religious men. I am attempting to get the people who are trying to help the main character all working together. With the men it is easy, mostly because I am a man, and with men, good food and a little mutual razzing results in cooperation. I do not know how I am going to incorporate the women. His wife is going to be supportive separate from the men. She understands more than he does that a marriage is a partnership. I have developed her into the smartest person in the book.

11/22 – Chapter 27. Writing on Sunday again, just to keep going. I am so close to the NaNoWriMo goal that I don’t want to stop. I also think I can actually finish this book, with a conclusion! I dreamed up a final scene, now I just have to get there. Right now, the women have returned and the best friends are expecting their first child. This is a good nudge for the main character towards the responsibility of fatherhood. Now he just has to show his wife that he has ‘changed’ enough to take it on. Another short chapter. I may have to reorganize the chapters to make them flow better, but that can wait. I still haven’t had anyone else review it yet, I am kind of nervous about that. My wife will be the first with Kosmo having the second look, then it should be ready for the Casually Observing community.

11/23 – Chapter 28. Lots going on at home to get in the way of writing. The eldest son is back from college for the break and in laws are coming in for the holiday as well. This is my family, not the story. Matching up the time line to real life has helped but can be confusing in a blog. Back to the story. The main character and his wife have a day alone. Some more revelations about their childhood. The main character has always had a learning disability, specifically reading. In school, even though she was younger than him, she had been assigned as his ready buddy, to help him out.

I included a touching scene where she gets to reenact helping him as he tries to share her love of reading. He tries to get her to restart her dream of going to college, more than the community college effort that she is in. Currently she is trying to get basic office skills to have a part time job, her dream had been to become a veterinarian. She is reluctant, mostly because of cost and because he is putting forth too many things for her to hold on to at one time. He has suggested in the last couple of chapters that they get her a new car, that they have children and that she go back to college for her dream. She promises to think about it, then she talks him into taking a course at the community college. It is a farm management course that will be good for him, but he is uncertain, he is not exactly college material.

11/24 – Chapter 29. The main character has to have his checkups scheduled back in chapter 4. He heads into town with his wife. They do some things at the community college before he sees the dentist. His teeth are fine now. I ended the chapter with them at lunch, before he sees his family doctor. His wife is working all of the things she has promised to do, looking into college for the vet degree and checking on the feasibility of getting a new car, or at least a car that is new to them. I allude to her car being on its last legs several times in this chapter. I don’t know what I am going to do in the next chapter yet. He has to see his family doctor and go over his injuries and the affects. His memory problem will have to be discussed eventually and this may be the right place. Oh well, I will see tomorrow.

11/25 – Chapters 30 and 31. My step mother in law is in town. We don’t get along very well so I have been retreating to my room, leaving my kids to deal with her. On the bright side, I did get a lot of writing done. In chapter 30, all is good for the main character. I used the family doctor to fill in a lot of his family history both for him and the reader. His dad wasn’t really a drunk, he had stress and medical issues that drove him away from his wife out of shame. I have tried to temper the character of his mother as well. She isn’t as mean as I portrayed her at the beginning, she had a rough time and her youngest son was disappointing her.

Chapter 31 everything goes down hill for the hero. His old drinking buddies show up and take him into town. He ends up at the same bar that he always goes too. The bar maid is helpful, but assures him that they had not fooled around. She lets him know that he is (was) a jerk and should go back to his wife. Without explaining why, he asks for her help escaping from the guys. The only person he knows to call is his father in law. Although the father in law does come to get him, thing do not go well. The hero is seriously worried about getting his ass kicked by this man. To avoid both a beating and his wife he asks to be turned over to the sheriff, expecting to spend at least the night in jail for going to a bar after being found responsible in a drunk driving accident.

11/26 – Chapters 32 and 33. The relatives are still in town, so more writing. I have passed the 50,000 word mark. NaNoWriMo has declared me a winner. You get icons to put on your email, facebook and myspace. You also get a nice certificate to download. I am going to try to figure out how to include that certificate in my final publication.

In the story, the sheriff’s deputy, who just happens to know the hero, and the father in law figure out how to keep the ‘friends’ away. The hero is an idiot, but that can be overcome. He fesses up to his father in law about not knowing who these friends were, then spills his guts on the whole memory thing. The father in law believes him and takes him home, but makes a side trip to get grain for the animals as an excuse for running into town and the late return to their respective farms

11/27 – Chapters 34 and 35. More good writing. After spending a guilt filled night lying next to his wife, our hero starts confessing to her. His doctor told him back in chapter 30 that the best way to recover was to include his wife and not have secrets. He finally breaks down and follows that advice. He also confesses to the sheriff’s deputy, but he doesn’t come completely clean. He does not admit to his wife, or anyone else, that he doesn’t remember her.

Chapter 35 is a confrontation with the worst of the drinking buddies. An almost fight occurs that is broken up by the resourceful, and armed wife. She insists on taking him to the hospital, just in case he had another head injury. This involves her brother, since he has to come over to take care of the farm. More confessions to include the mother in law and another confrontation with the bad friend, this time in court. Trusting his wife is the best thing our hero has done so far. I told you in an earlier blog, he is an idiot, but that can be helped.

11/28 – Chapters 36 and 37. Some of my relatives are leaving, so this might be my last double chapter night for a while. The story is building up to Christmas. The hero gets his wife a puppy, and convinces her to chase her dream of becoming a vet. Just because I really didn’t like the character, I had the bad friend get hurt in a bar fight. Probably not necessary for the story, but felt good.

11/29 – Chapter 38. All my visitors are gone. Lots of cleaning, not much writing. Got several pep talk emails from NaNoWriMo. I really haven’t used them very much, I just participated in the word count challenge and got the reward. I think it was me not doing much, not them. They seem like really nice people who want to help. The write ins could be a lot of fun if I had the time.

In the story, one of the other drinking buddies tries to straighten out his life. He is heading out of town to pursue his dreams and tells the hero, thanking him for standing up to the bully that they use to drink with. The hero also decides to try to better himself by taking an extension class at the community college, to be a better farmer. For the first time, significant time passes, well a couple of months, instead of a day by day account.

11/30 – NaNoWriMo is officially over. I already made the word count several days ago, to the finish is sort of an anti climax for me. I added to chapter 38 and started chapter 39. I wanted to show a growth in the two main characters’ love lives as well as growth on a personal level. The main character has regained his strength and his wife notices his physique. He also uses his new knowledge to actually work his own farm, not well of course, but still his own sweat and effort. I think I have a good ending planned. I want to finish this book before Christmas. It is a goal that is within reach. Probably six more chapters to get there, then lots of editing. If Kosmo will let me, I will post the book as a Christmas present to the Casually Observing community.