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Love ya, teammate!

Tim Tebow sparked Tebowmania in 2011.  Despite uneven – and at times very bad – play at the quarterback position, Tebow managed a 7-4 record as a starter and became a much beloved figure in the Mile High City.  Tebow jersey were flying off the shelves, and high school kids everywhere were tebowing.

The amazing flight of Tim Tebow crash landed this week when the Broncos signed future Hall of Famer quarterback Peyton Manning to a contract.  Manning was cut loose by the Indianapolis Colts to avoid payment of a $28 million roster bonus.  After a prolonged recruiting trip, current Hall of Famer and Denver icon John Elway convinced Manning that the place for him to begin his quest for another ring was in Denver.

Naturally, the minute that Manning signed on the dotted line, he became the starting quarterback for the Broncos.  You don’t pay a guy $96 million (over five years) to carry a clipboard.  Suddenly, Manning is The Man and Tebow was relegated to backup duty, perhaps being rotated in for a series once in a while.  Maybe even converted to a halfback to keep his athleticism on the field.

Then the other shoe dropped.  Tebow was being shipped out.  He was traded today to the New York Jets.  The Jets got Tebow and a 7th round pick and the Broncos got a 4th and 6th round pick.

How the mighty have fallen.  The once “great” Tebow was now being valued less than a hundred or so players who will be drafted before the Broncos will be able to draft a player with that 4th round pick.

Does the deal make sense for the Broncos?

I’m not a huge Tebow fan, but this deal makes very little sense to me.  Many people – including me – felt that he was overvalued when the Broncos spent a first round pick on him.  But on the flip side, I definitely think he’s worth more than a 4th rounder plus the 6-for-7 swap.  Really, there’s a player in the 4th round who provides more value to the Broncos than Tim Tebow?

This is Adam Weber.

Without Tebow on the roster, the Broncos are going to be force to acquire a backup quarterback.  They chased Kyle Orton out of town – to give Tebow a wide berth.  Brady Quinn recently signed with KC while the Manning/Tebow sagas played out.  According to NFL.com, the only other QB on Denver’s roster is Adam Weber.  Weber is best known for … actually, nobody really knows who he is.  He may not have existed when I began writing this article.  As for the wisdom of backup up Manning with an inexperience QB – how did that work out for the Colts this year (other than winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes)?

It’s not even about the money – Tebow will make $1.942 million in 2012, $2.266 million in 2013, and $2.590 million in 2014.  Those are bad salaries for a guy who has shown some ability to win games.  Heck, Matt Flynn recently signed a $24 million contract (over three years) on the strength of his performance in ONE game.

Does the deal make sense for the Jets?

Definitely.  They only give up a 4th round pick for Tebow.  At worst, he backs up Mark Sanchez and serves as a capable second string QB.  If Sanchez were to continue to regress, there’s even the chance that the Jets would let Tebow take the team out for a spin and see what he can do with the offense.  Although some are rubbed the wrong way by Tebow’s Christian messages, he’s definitely not the sort of player who is going to make headlines for the wrong reason (Big Ben).

All in all, there’s very little downside here, and a decent amount of upside – especially if Tebow can every figure out how the pass the ball effectively.

Around the NFL: Horse of a different color

I was not able to find a public domain image of Saturday's backside.

Several other Colts may be switching their mounts and also joined the Broncos.  My friend Ray gave me a heads-up that center Jeff Saturday, tight end Dallas Clark,  and running back Joseph Addai are all being mentioned as possible free agent signings by Denver.  If all goes well for Denver, Manning could once again be staring at Saturday’s butt, handing the ball off the Addai, and finding Dallas Clark in the back on the end zone.

Add these cogs into the mix, and the Broncos could easily find themselves in the playoff rodeo once again.

Around the NFL: Saints Brass Lose Halos

The other big new story of the day is the NFL cracking down on the New Orleans Saints for Bountygate.

Suspensions:

• Head coach Sean Payton, entire 2012 season
• GM Mickey Loomis, eight games
• Assistant coach Joe Vitt, six games
• Former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams (now with Rams) suspended indefinitely.  Status to be reviewed after the season.

Other penalties:

• $500,000 fine
• Forfeiture of second round picks in 2012 and 2013

It’s interesting to look at these penalties alongside the penalties for SpyGate.  There were no suspensions for the Patriots, but they were stripped of a first round pick.  So was BountyGate worse, or SpyGate?
 

 

“You’re choosing $50 lightbulbs,” Senator Rand Paul said. “Nobody understands that in America.”

There has been much discussion about Philips winning a $10 million award (the L prize) for affordable lighting – for a light bulb that costs $50.  Sounds crazy, doesn’t it?  Even with a 25,000 hour productive life, the bulb would cost far more than a bunch of incandescents that do the same job, right?  This seems to be a commonly held belief – but it’s wrong.

I believe that Senator Paul is correct, and this concerns me.  I believe that he is correct that many people don’t understand how a $50 light bulb could be a good thing, and I feel that this stems from a failure to understand some basic math and science concepts.

There are two factors in the total cost of ownership of a light bulb.  With a standard incandescent bulb, the cheap part is the bulb. The far more expensive portion is the electricity to power the bulb.

Cost Comparison

Let’s compare costs over a 25,000 hour lifespan :

 
I used the high end of the life for the incandescent bulbs (rated at 750 – 1500 hours), but even with this, you’ll have used 17 bulbs during the life of one of the Philips LED bulbs. So we’re comparing a $50 bulb to $8.50 worth of incandescents. OK, incandescents are still $41.50 cheaper, right?

Then we get to electricity usage. Assuming 10 cents per kWh, the $50 LED bulb will usage $25 worth of electricity. The incandescents will use $150 worth of electricity.

Total cost for the $50 LED bulb: $50 for bulb + $25 for electricity = $75

Total cost for incandescents: $8.50 for bulbs + $150 for electricity = $158.59

Now do you see why it might make sense to buy the “expensive” bulbs?

Criticism of the LED Bulbs

Here are some of the comments I hear about the LED bulbs:

If I break a bulb, it’s $50 instead of 50 cents.

Seriously, how many bulbs do you people break?  I’m 36, and I’ve broken one in my entire life – and it was a bulb I was removing.  If bulb breakage is a common problem, you might want to be a bit more careful.  Also, since LED bulbs are solid state, they are more resistant to shock and vibration – less likely to break.

There’s mercury in LED bulbs.

No, there isn’t.  You’re thinking of compact flourescent bulbs.

If I can’t recover the cost of an investment in 2-3 years, it’s not worth my time.

Anything that doesn’t have a ROI north of 33% isn’t worth your time?

Which would you rather have:

• Product A recovers the cost of the initial investment in 18 months and has a life span of 24 months.
• Product B recovers the cost of the initial investment in 4 years and has a life span of 10 years.

Obviously, product B is the better choice.  It takes longer to recover the investment, but it keeps saving you money for a longer period of time afterward.

The lighting is of worse quality

Honestly, I really don’t notice a difference between incandescent, compact flourescent, and LED.  Some people do.

If I sell my house or remodel, I won’t get the full savings from the bulbs.

Fair point.  It’s important to note that the break even point from the example above is 8300 hours, so even if you only have the bulb for half the life, you come out ahead.  In any case, I suspect that you have a number of bulbs in your house that are fairly resistant to remodeling efforts – perhaps the laundry room or garage?

If you sell the house, you may be able to use the existence of LED bulbs as a selling point.

These bulbs won’t last 25,000 hours

Possible.  If I had to bet, though, I’d bet that they come awful close to it.  If they even average half the estimated useful life, they still save money.

There will be cheaper bulbs next year

This is true – most likely, the cost of LED bulbs will continue to fall.  Should you replace now or wait?  The critical factor is how much you use the bulb.  If you have it on 8 hours a day, 365 days a year, that’s 2920 hours.  You’d save 146 kwH per year, for an annual savings of $14.60 (based on the 10 cents per kWh – if your cost is higher, the savings is more).  Use the bulb an hour per day, and the cost savings is  $1.83 per year (but, in theory, the bulb would last nearly 70 years).

It’s also worth noting that the Philips 10 watt LED isn’t the only game in town.  There are cheaper options, even from Philips.  You can currently buy a 4 pack of 12.5 watt, 800 lumen Philips LED bulbs for less than $100 (below) – half the price per bulb.  In fact, the total cost of ownership of the 12.5 watt bulbs will be less than the total cost of ownership of the 10 watt bulbs.  You’ll spend somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 – $10 more for electricity, but save $25 on the bulb.

A couple of points in closing:

Often, green choices cost more.  With the LED bulbs, you can save money at the same to you help control dependence on foreign energy (since the energy saved in lighting can be used elsewhere).

While much of the criticism of the bulbs pertains to their use by consumers, industrial use of LED bulbs are a big part of the cost savings.  The city where I work recently replaced bulbs in city parking garages with LED.  Not only is there cost savings from the energy usage, but it also reduces the maintenance of replacing the bulbs.  LEDs are also a popular choice for traffic lights, where extended bulb life can make the streets safer.

Striking Down With Great Vengeance….

I saw a funny couple of posts on Facebook last night.

One went something along the lines of “Will the Wrath of God hit the Broncos now that his favorite Quarterback has lost the starting job?”

While this may be funny on the surface it really does hit an interesting point. There is Broncos Nation….and then there is Tebow Nation.

The Broncos fans were torn last year as Tebow became the quarterback. Many tried and true Tebow fans proclaimed him as their “football savior” Indicating his college record, his winning spirit, and that “IT” factor that no-one can quite put their finger on…but evidently Tim has “IT” .  “All he does is win” is what the Tebow camp proclaimed.

Naysayers would bring up the same couple of points over and over. He can’t throw the ball at all. He throws it terribly inaccurately and his throwing motion is horrid. With him as quarterback all teams do is load up to stop the run and make him throw the football.

Turns out both groups of fans were right. He really did not throw the ball worth a lick, but he did win games and had six fourth quarter come from behind victories and led the Broncos to the playoffs.

Enter Peyton Manning. He has had career neck problems. He has proven time and time again that he is arguably the best regular season quarterback of all time. He is the consummate field general, calling all the plays at the line of scrimmage and changing them on the fly based on what the defense if giving him. His accuracy over the years and arm strength are without question.

Let the Sound Clips Begin!

Already the arguments are starting with what will become of Tim Tebow? Why did the Broncos of all teams go get Manning after they stated last year Tebow was “their guy”

Current player Willis McGahee and stated on Sirius XM NFL Radio – “Basically, he can really take us to another level,” “We were young and I think those guys got the jitters out of them last year, even though we did go to the playoffs and represented the AFC West. It was a certain something that we were missing. We were missing that general to take charge in tough situations and I think he brings that to the table.”

Former Broncos player, Bill Romanowski told Yahoo Sports Radio – “I don’t see this as a huge positive for the Denver Broncos. I don’t think you can just throw in a Peyton Manning, who to me is still broken down, who is not healthy yet, and think that he is going to be the answer to getting you to a Super Bowl. To me, you had the answer. You just need more talent around a guy like Tim Tebow.”

These are the comments before any “official” announcement has been made. I am sure the comments will continue to roll out of Mile High City in the next few weeks.

Why Didn’t Peyton Go For the Gold?

I personally was thinking that Manning might have went to the west coast and landed with the 49ers. At the end of the day, I think the same thing that makes it appealing to Manning is ultimately the same thing that made it unattractive. Jim Harbaugh.

Harbaugh strikes me as a guy that is ultra-competitive. I get the feeling is very cerebral when it comes to being a tactician on the field. He is intense. He is a former Colts Quarterback. I have the sense likes to be in control.

To me this is a case where Manning and Harbaugh might be too much alike and would ultimately clash in the end game. There is no doubt the Niners would be a prohibitive favorite in the NFC to get to the Super Bowl with Peyton in charge of the huddle. In the end, maybe it was the perception that egos would get in the way.

Un-retiring the 18?

An interesting side note is that the Denver Broncos long ago retired the #18 jersey. It was worn by Frank Tripucka, who also was the first U.S. professional quarterback to throw for over 3000 yards in a season. Tripucka, who is now in his mid-Eighties, has indicated he would be happy to give permission to Manning to sport the long ago retired #18 for the Broncos. “A number is a number!” Frank said. “I’d be honored if he wants to use it. He’s a great quarterback.”

While the Tim Tebow Jersey was the 2nd bestselling NFL jersey last year, it will be interesting to see if the new number 18 in navy and orange will crack the top 10 in jersey sales in 2012. My guess is that he will be miles high up on the list.

Until next time– Stay Classy Toledo, Ohio
 

 

I took the opportunity of Spring Break to visit several historical sites.  This was not just an educational tour, but a family visit that was fortuitously located on the east coast.  If you ever have the opportunity, you should visit the various historical sites that have been protected across this great country.

My tour started in Philadelphia.  This city is surprisingly accessible.  The roads are rather tight, so avoid driving, but there are a multitude of Taxis and almost everything is within walking distance.  Independence Hall and Liberty Bell are part of an immaculate park with Betsy Ross’ house near by.  The architecture throughout the city is spectacular.  Most of the houses are from the 1800s, but there are a couple of streets with houses from the 1700s that are kept authentic.  Of course there are  more modern structures, but the old stuff is what caught my eye.

On the way out of town, we dropped by Valley Forge.  The Parks Department keeps the entire area in pristine condition.  They have replicas of the sheds the men made for themselves and Washington’s headquarters is set up for tours.  It is a small building that housed 23 people, that is once Mrs. Washington showed up.  Of course, once she was there, they had to set up a dining tent.  It seems that it was pretty much a scouting camp out until she was there.  The men were housed 12 to a shed, triple bunks set up in each corner.  There are monuments scattered around where each of the troops were bivouacked.  There is also a triumphal arch listing all of the commands.

Next we headed to Washington DC.  Again, there is plenty of access.  Again, having a vehicle is not recommended.  There is so much to see just on the National Mall, that you could spend a week just there.  At one end is the Capital, at the other is the Lincoln Memorial.  I cannot think of a more impressive walk any where in the world.  We only visited four of the Smithsonian museums.  I personally was impressed by each of the war memorials.  The WWII memorial is awesome in its scale and location right beneath the Washington Memorial.  The Korean War and Viet Nam Memorials straddle the reflecting pool on either side of the Lincoln Memorial.  Right now, the Mall is a construction zone as they are replanting the grassy areas to allow more tourist traffic and they are fixing the reflecting pool.

Out of Washington, we headed to Charlottesville Virginia, the site of Thomas Jefferson’s house, Monticello.  Even though it is only one house, we spent an entire day there.  This site is run by a private organization rather than the parks department.  The facilities are very well-kept, as is the house.  The tours are very personal, with the guides allowing a lot of questioning from the group and allowing the group to steer the discussion.

We took the long way around through the mountains of West Virginia to get back to Philadelphia for our flight home.  The Shenandoah valley is beautiful.  There is literally a historic site at every exit, either from the Revolutionary War or the Civil War.  There were plenty of attractions on the circuit that I just described that we were not able to visit.  The future awaits.  Again, if you ever have the opportunity to witness out monuments, take it.  And of course, write about it.

Many of you likely read my article from Tuesday proclaiming that Alabama was going to beat Creighton. In case you missed it – you can find it here.

Living in Nebraska, I have caught a lot of heat for this stance. I had various friendly wagers of soda on the line at work, even a lunch or two. I was even mentioned at a meeting today for my “hatred” of the Blue Jays. I clarified the issue immediately that I do not in fact hate Creighton at all…I just dislike them vehemently.

With all that said, I apologize to all fans in Blue Jay Nation about my slighted article. Yes I was completely wrong. You are not over-rated. The three impressive wins on your slate of games beating three NCAA teams speak to the outstanding strength of your basketball schedule. Never mind that those three teams all lost their initial games and are at home, like me, watching basketball for the rest of the tournament.

I proudly wore a Crimson polo shirt to the office today, stated “Roll Tide” whenever possible and even whistled the Alabama fight song a time or two today.

Like many folks I have filled out a number of brackets, but just for on-line contests that allow you to win something. I have done the local newspaper. The local news station. The big national outlets. A few at some local restaurants. We even have one at the office but I let my 6 year old fill it out as I figure his odds of winning are better than me.

Overall on most of the brackets I have filled out I am doing well. I am perfect on one, and was 15-1 in two brackets and 14-2 two and 13-3 on a couple of others. I had West Virginia winning on all accounts but one bracket and obviously lost that game. UNLV cost me on a couple as well.

I can add a loss to all brackets today —- as I had Bama winning in ALL of my entries. I said Creighton was over-rated and I made my picks with that in mind. I try to back up what I say. It would have been foolish to say they were over-rated and then go ahead and pick them to advance.

Go Big or Go Home. Bama is going home and it is an “L” on all of my sheets of integrity. I also had Texas on one or two (what the heck was I thinking with that…you all know I love the republic!) and unless Florida State wakes up late in the game, I am in big big trouble there as well.

Good thing my wife is a North Carolina Tar Heel fan. I can let Mrs. Goodman do all the cheering for me on Sunday.

Until next week, when I can tell everyone about the rest of my poor picks…..Go Wildcats!

After one day of the NCAA tournament, I stand at 13-3.  That’s not great, since “chalk” picks would have gone 14-2.

My best pick was #12 VCU over #5 Wichita State.  (Note: numbers used in this article are seeds, and not rankings).  Personally, I didn’t even consider this to be an upset.  This is a team that made a Final Four run last year.  Regardless of player turnover, coach Shaka Smart  remains with the team.  I’m not yet anointing VCU as this decade’s Gonzaga, but I’d like to point out the fact that Smart is 10-1 all-time in post-season tournaments.  In addition to the success last year, he led the 2010 team to the CBI tournament championship.  Sure, the CBI is a far less prestigious tournament, but it would seem that Smart does well with the one-and-done philosophy of tournament play.  Whether Smart can continue to turn down opportunities to earn more money at other schools remains to be seen – but it would be nice to see him stick around VCU and turn them into a perennial power.

My worst pick was Davidson over Louisville.  Even worse, I picked Davidson to advance to the Sweet 16.  One of these years, I’m going to do a chalk bracket, I swear.

UConn became the first defending champ to get bounced in the first round since UCLA in 1996.  My Iowa State Cyclones roared out to a 22 point lead early in the game and fended off some late charges by the Huskies.  Iowa State now faces #1 overall seed Kentucky.  However, if the team can manage to play as well as they did early in last night’s game, I think they have a chance to win the game an advance.  I do have the concerns that Royce White may have punched his ticket to the NBA and will leave after this year.  I’d really prefer that he return for at least another year.  The 6’8″ power forward led the Cyclones in five statistical categories and is quick to exploit mismatches.

The biggest story of the day was #1 seed Syracuse needing a second half rally to beat 16 seed UNC Asheville.  Although coach Jim Boeheim didn’t thing that the Orange were the beneficiaries of any luck in the game, I would disagree.  This is a game that was hotly contested in the final minute, and could easily have gone either way – especially if a controversial call had gone UNC Asheville’s way.  I initially had Syracuse as a Final Four team in my bracket, but pulled them back to be just a Sweet 16 team upon the news that Fab Melo would not be allowed to play in any tournament games.  I think this was a wise decision.

Personally, I thought the biggest surprise in the Thursday session was the Pac 12 getting a win from Colorado.  The Pac 12 was a very mediocre (bad) conference this year, and was fortunate to get two teams into the 68 team field (Cal was bounced in the opening round).

Personally, I don’t find it that surprising that some of the teams from smaller schools play well in the tournaments.  The standard mantra from the analysts is that it’s all about having a team peak at tournament time.  For teams that come from one-bid conference, they are in the tournament because they won their conference tournament.  That’s the definition of peaking. 

OK, day 2 is about to begin.  Enjoy!

Do you know who this man is?

It’s the opening day of the NCAA tournament.  What better day to talk about baseball?  It’s finally time for me to give my playoff predictions.  The regular season is about twenty days away at this point, and temperatures in the 70s in Iowa are making the season seem ever closer. 

There’s have been a lot of changes this year, and the future will bring even more changes, with new penalties for exceeding signing bonuses for draftees and international free agents … not the mention the Astros being kicked to the curb (forced to the AL) next year).

American Legion

East – For the first time, there will be two wild card teams in each division.  In theory, three teams from the same division could make the playoffs.  I doubt that this will remain a hypothetical situation for very long.  I fully expect the Yankees, Red Sox, and Devil Rays strongly content for the playoffs this year.  The real question is which team will earn a bye by winning the division and which two will be forced to square off in the coin-clip game.  I’m going to take the Red Sox.  I fully expect Carl Crawford to snap out of his funk and return to being a very good all-around player.  I also think this is the year that David Ortiz fixes his April/May problems and become a great hitter for all six months of the season.  The Sox do have to find a way to replace the production of the underrated Marco Scutaro at shortstop, but overall, I think this is a team that should be better than last year’s version.

Central – A good Tigers team adds Prince Fielder.  If they don’t have the division wrapped up by mid-September, I’ll be surprised.  The question does remain whether or not Miguel Cabrera can adequately field the ball at 3B, or whether one of Cabrera/Fielder is going to have to DH.

West – This should be another great race.   The Angels sign free agent C.J. Wilson away from the Rangers and also nab Albert Pujols – and they still might not win the division!  The Rangers replaced Wilson with Yu Darvish and signed closer Joe Nathan – which should push stud closer Neftali Feliz into the rotation.  If Hamilton can stay healthy this year, the Rangers will win the west.

Wild Card – OK, I’ll pencil in the Yankees one last time.  I think they significantly strengthened their pitching staff by adding Michael Pindea and the underrated Hiroki Kuroda.  I think this is the year when we see a notable decline from Derek Jeter, but I think Cano, Big Tex, and company can keep the wheels on for one more season.

The only wild card team has to be the Angels.  While the Devil Rays have a lot of good young players, you can’t add an MVP caliber player and a Cy Young contending starting pitcher to a team and expect them to miss the playoffs (unless you’re the Mets).

The close-but-no-cigar award goes to the Devil Rays.

National League

East – This division is going to shape up to be  the best division in baseball in a couple of years.  At the moment, however, I think the Phillies still control the East.  Their ability to throw an ace at the opposing team nearly ever day means that they are a virtual lock for 90+ wins.  There are definitely some footsteps to be heard – Washington is building a good young team and the Marlins should also be on the upswing.

Central – Albert Pujols is gone after leading the Cardinals to an improbable World Series run.  That’s definitely a huge blow, but it is offset somewhat by the return of Adam Wainwright and the signing of Carlos Beltran (Lance Berkman will shift to first base).  Would the Cardinals be a better team with Pujols AND Wainwright in the lineup?  Definitely.  But I think the Cardinals can tread water in the Central and allow the Brewers to get worse.  This could also be the year when Matt Holliday re-emerges in the public eye after time in the shadow of Pujols?  Remember those people who predicted that Holliday would turn into a mediocre hitter once he left Coors Field?  It hasn’t happened so far.

West – I’m going to go out on a limb and pick my Colorado Rockies to win the west.  Is it a homer call?  Definitely.  Do I think there’s an actual chance of it happening?  Definitely.  Some pundits have said that Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd is considering age to be the new market inefficiency when it comes to player valuation.  I think they are correct in their beliefs, and I also believe that O’Dowd may have a point.  The Rockies should be one of the more interesting stories in baseball as they attempt to add some aging vets (OF Michael Cuddyer, SS Marco Scutaro, and possibly Jamie Moyer) to a team that is also going to expect significant contributions from a number of very young players notably pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Drew Pomeranz and catcher Wilin Rosario, and perhaps even 20 year old 3B Nolan Arenado.  If the veterans play well, and the kids avoid the mistakes of youth, this could be a very good team.  If the veterans get old and the youngsters have trouble adjusting, this could be a very bad year.

I really expect Troy Tulowitzki to win an MVP award within the next 5 years, and this could be the year (after all, this is his age 27 season).  I think Tulo and Cargo will be a real force in the middle of the Rockies order.  On the mound, I expect people to finally notice Jhoulys Chacin.  He’s really good and really young (just turned 24).  He’s the mystery man at the top of the column.

Wild card – I think this is the year the NL East breaks through.  Not just multiple teams in the playoffs, but I see both of the wild card teams coming from the East.  The Nationals have been building  a very good team, and I think this is their breakthrough year.  Bryce Harper might make an impact this year, but my guess is that the return of Stephen Strasburg will have a bigger impact.  And in Florida, the Marlins have added Jose Reyes at shortstop (pushing Hanley Ramirez to third base) and also Heath Bell in the bullpen.  The new stadium opens with a bang – increased attendance (I hope) and a winning team.

Playoffs

Coin Flip round – The Nationals dump the Marlins and the Angels beat the Yankees.  Zero confidence in this, since one game is too small of sample size.

Division Series Winners – Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, and Cardinals

League Championship Series Winners – Tigers and Phillies
World Series – Tigers over Phillies.  Rain thwarted the chances of the Tigers to fully utilize Verlander against the Rangers last year.  In the World Series, Detroit will pitch him in games 1, 4, and 7 and also nab another win from someone.

I’m a big sports fan, although I’m not into basketball as much as baseball.  Furthermore, I really haven’t had much of a chance to see many games this year, or follow much of the news.  This essentially means that your bracket is probably better than mine.  Nonetheless, I’ll thrust my bracket upon you.

South Region

First round winners: Kentucky, Iowa State, VCU, Indiana, UNLV, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Duke.  This is all chalk, so no real explanations for my picks.  I’d love to see Western Kentucky –  a team with a losing record – be the first team to upend a #1 seed … but it’s not going to happen.

Second round winners: Iowa State, Indiana, Baylor, and Duke.  Iowa State is my alma mater, and this is a clear “homer” pick.  Having said that, the Cyclones beat Kansas and Baylor in the regular season, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they could beat Kentucky – although playing them in Louisville is a tough draw.

Third round winners: Indiana and Baylor.  I can’t completely torch my bracket by taking the Cyclones out any further, so I have the Hoosiers knock them off at this point.  It feels dirty picking a Big 10 team to beat Iowa State.  Baylor over coach K?  I like Baylor, mostly because of how they have rebuilt the program after Dave Bliss burned it to the ground.  If you don’t remember the Bliss era at Baylor, look it up sometime when you’re feeling too happy.  It will definitely take your mood down a notch or three.

Regional champ: Baylor.  The Bears finished the Big 12 conference season with a 12-6 record – but four of those losses were to Kansas and Missouri.  Those teams seem to have Baylor’s number – but I’m betting the bears will fare better against outside competition.

West Region

First round winners: Michigan State, Saint Louis, New Mexico, Davidson, Murray State, Marquette, Virginia, Missouri.  There we go – some first round upsets sneak into my bracket.  I remember when Davidson make their run a few years back with Steph Curry.  What stuck out on my mind was that the college did laundry for the students, so that they could focus on their studies (granted, this means they’d unleash a group of 22 year olds that can’t do laundry …)  That’s quirky, and I like quirky.  I always pick some 9-8 and 10-7 upsets, so Saint Louis and Virginia shouldn’t be shockers.  Saint Louis in particular is an apt pick, because the Billiken is a strange little creature.

Second round winners: Michigan State, Davidson, Murray State, Missouri.  New Mexico coach Steve Alford was previously the coach at the University of Iowa.  He’s not very well like in the state.  Although I’m a fan of Iowa State and not Iowa, the stories I’ve heard about him don’t paint a good picture.  Thus, I have no qualms picking his team to go down in flames.  Murray State’s an upsets according to the seeds (6 over 3), but Murray State is actually ranked higher than Marquette in the coaches poll (and is one spot behind them in the AP poll. 

Third round winners: Michigan State and Murray State.  Davidson’s run ends in the third round.  I have the utmost respect for Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, one of the greats in the game.  Why Murray State over Mizzou.  Well, first of all, I hate Mizzou.  Second, the disconnect between the voters and the selection committee bothers me.  I realize that these are different groups of people, but one of the groups is clearly wrong.  You can’t be the #9 team in the nation (coaches poll) and also be the #6 seed (which means at least 20 teams are seeded higher).  One of these things is wrong.

Regional champ: Murray State.  Hey, why not?  Regardless of how weak Murray State’s conference is, the fact remains that they won 30 of 31 games.  That’s incredibly difficult to do – at some point, you just run into a team that is on a hot streak and you fall short.  I’ll bring the whole ranking vs. seeding debate to a head by pushing Murray State into the Final Four.

East Region

First round winners: Syracuse, Kansas State, Harvard, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Florida State, Gonzaga, Ohio State.  The big upset here is Harvard over Vanderbilt.  However, a 12 usually beats a 5, and why not pick a 12 that has a sterling reputation for academics.  After all, that’s the whole reason for colleges.

Second round winners: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Florida State, Gonazaga.  I push Gonzaga forward based on the strength of their coach.  The rest of my picks here are chalk.

Third round winners: Wisconsin and Gonzaga.  Syracuse will not have the services of Fab Melo for the tournament.  I think they can get by UNC Asheville and Kansas State without him, but I think Wisconsin comes away with the win.  I like the Zags, and their coach, Mark Few.  I know almost nothing about Florida State, so Gonzaga is basically my default pick here.

Regional champ: Wisconsin.  Seems like they always peak at tourney time.

Midwest Region

First round winners: North Carolina, Creighton, Temple, Ohio, San Siego State, Georgetown, St. Mary’s, Kansas.  The only upset here is Ohio over Michigan.  The main reason for this is the animosity between the two states (yes, I realize that this Ohio and not Ohio State).

Second round winners: North Carolina, Temple, Georgetown, Kansas.  All chalk here … boring picks in this region so far.

Third round winners: North Carolina and Kansas.  Yawn … very predictable.  Two of the better programs in the country, headed by coaches with length post-season resumes.

Regional Champ: North Carolina.  First of all, I despise Kansas basketball.  Second, North Carolina star Harrison Barnes is an Iowa kid, so I have to root for him to succeed.  I wish he had stayed in-state (in town, actually) and played for Iowa State, but kids need to make their own choices, so I’m OK with his decision and wish him success.

Final Four

OK, it’s the end of the road for Murray State, as they lose to Baylor.  On the other side of the bracket, Harrison Barnes powers North Carolina to the finals with a win over Wisconsin.

In the championship game, Baylor caps off a tremendous academic year with the national title.  Add in the football team’s great season and a possible (likely?) championship on the women’s side, and the roar of the Bears can be heard from afar.

The Conference Tournaments are all done….the seedings are all done…..we are all filling out our brackets….

And many fans are whining.

As always there are many teams on the outside looking in.

Washington Huskies fans are complaining as they missed out on the field of 64..errrr 68. The regular season Pac 12 champs were left off the list by the NCAA. Why?

First off the league as a whole was HORRIBLE this year. They were 0-12 against ranked opponents and 9-43 against teams in the RPI’s top 50. Yikes!

Colorado, which earned the automatic berth by winning the Conference tournament, is an 11 seed. California, the only other team in from the Pac 12 is in a play in game against fellow 12 seed South Florida but did have the advantage of having the highest RPI in the conference which is likely what got them in over the Huskies.

Washington finished first in the Pac-12 with a 14-4 in the conference and was 21-10 overall. However, they went 0-5 against RPI top 50 teams and per the NCAA wasn’t even close to getting an at-large bid. This year for the first time in history, the NCAA Selection committee released the seedings from 1 to 68 and ALSO listed the first six teams left out of making the field of 68 teams. The Huskies were not among the 6 so called “close by not quite” teams on the list.

Drexel finished with an outstanding record of 27-6. On paper this looks like a lock. The . The Dragons won the Colonial Athletic Association regular season championship and won 19 consecutive games before losing to VCU in the CAA final. The Dragons strength of schedule, ranked 248, likely kept them outside looking in.

The Cry of the Blue Jay

Since I am writing for a blog and can be biased as I want to be…I will take that liberty today. As you all know I am a loyal Nebraska Cornhuskers fan. What most of you won’t know is that I have been attending most home basketball games since 1975 as my father has been a season ticket holder since that time.

Nebraska is the only Division I football program in the state.

However, when the boys move from the gridiron to the hardwood – – things change.

Up the road a short piece there is a bigger town…maybe you have all heard of it…It is called Omaha. Some Lincolnites would argue that at times, Omaha seems like it is its own sovereign nation and not really a part of Nebraska.

That could not be a more true statement when it comes to Creighton Blue Jay Basketball.

Creighton Basketball fans snub their noses and turn their backs in general on the Nebraska Basketball team. It is a heated rivalry, and if I sound a little bitter and full of resentment regarding the Creighton program then you are reading exactly what I am trying to convey.

Head Coach Greg McDermott is complaining that the Missouri Valley Tournament Champions and holder of the automatic NCAA berth out of the MVC got overlooked being just an 8 seed. The Blue Jays were a top 20 team early in the year, and the coach’s son Doug is on many “watch lists” as he is a great talent.

McDermott argues that the NCAA selection committee had a “story line agenda” in wanting to match up former teammates at Ames High School, Doug McDermott and Harrison Barnes of North Carolina in a possible 1 vs. 8 seed 2nd round match.

The office banter has been at an all-time high. Cries out outrage. What was the NCAA seeking? Is the team as concerned as their fan base? Are they worried more about their seeding the in tournament than they are about playing their first round game?

Alabama – their opponent is missing one of their better players but has undoubtedly played a MUCH tougher schedule throughout the year and should be battle tested and ready. I think Bama handles them and then fans of the “other” basketball team in Nebraska will be whining even louder. I am predicting a one and done for Creighton.

Of course, I could be wrong…this is March Madness after all. Here is hoping I am not eating Blue Jay come this weekend.

Until Next Time…ROLL TIDE!

Note: this is the second in a series.  Go here to start.

Most importantly, I have a name for my team (I use a different name each year).  It’s The Electric Company … ‘cuz the power is always on.

Round 5

I get L and the group O/I for this round.  Time to get some pitchers.  I grab Jon Lester of the Red Sox with L.  Lester should be good for 15-18 wins, 200+ strikeouts, and an ERA in the low 3s.

O+I is a bad letting grouping.  I think about nabbing Raul Ibanez, but take Juan Oviedo (former Leo Nunez).  Oviedo lost his closer role to Heath Bell, but maybe Bell will get hurt.  Worst case scenario is that I cut him loose.  There’s not point in getting attached to an O/I player – they rarely pan out.

Round 6

I get C and F this around.  Did one of the shortstops fall to me?  Yep – Asdrubal Cabrera.  Cabrera and Castro are fairly similar in value in most categories (we use OBP, so Cabrera’s ability to walk offsets Castro’s higher BA), except that Cabrera smacked 25 homer last year.  That’s probably a fluke, but maybe not.  In any case, I can breath a sigh of relief at having a shortstop.

F has more possibilities.  Pitchers Gavin Floyd (starter), Frank Francisco (reliever), and outfielder Dexter Fowler.  I try to avoid overtly “homer” picks, but I go with Fowler.  I believe that he finally has things figured out after a couple of stints in AAA.  He should provide good OBP and steals, and perhaps even a bit of power if the off-season weight game helps his strength.  Also, I haven’t picked any outfielders yet, and I’ll need some.

Round 7

Letters for the round are R and J.  J is not a great letter.  Desmond Jennings got snapped up in the previous round, so I’m picking between Jair Jurrjens and Edwin Jackson.  E-Jack is in  a pitcher’s park in Washington, so I nab him.  However, I really don’t want mediocre (or worse) pitchers dragging down my ERA and WHIP, so I’ll have a quick hook.

R is a no-brainer.  Yankees ace closer Mariano Rivera joins my team to provide some saves.

Round 8

I have H and A in round 8.  The pickings are getting slim in the letter A.  It’s down to a choice between the once-great but aging Bobby Abreu, and the up-and-comer Yonder Alonso.  Neither is guaranteed a full slate of at bats this year.  While Abreu’s steals are tempting, I take Alonso.  Among other considerations, if he becomes the first baseman for he Padres, he will be eligible at boh 1B and OF.  Also, I like the name.

Matt Holliday is my guy at H.  He’s a safe bet for a .380+ OBP with 25-30 homers, and 90-100 RBI.

At this point, I’ve picked sixteen players – eleven position players and five pitchers.  I narrowly missed getting Demond Jennings as my J guy and I was hoping that somehow Mike Trout would drop to me in the 1oth round (unlikely, and it didn’t happen), but on the flip side, I had Asdrubal Cabrera fall to me, so I can’t complain.

I’ve filled all the offensive positions so far.  I’d really like to add another strong outfield bat at some point, in case Fowler and/or Alonso falter.  I definitely want to stock up on closers.  Either Heath Bell or Andrew Bailey are guaranteed to fall to me, and I’ll take either of them (even if Carlos Beltran is available) and I’ll likely go after Jason Motte or Carlos Marmol in the 10th.  That would give me four closers (as well as Oviedo, who would likely fill in if Bell got injured).  After the ten rounds, we fill three most roster spots.  I’ll likely fill two of them with another outfielder and another closer.

More draft results to follow.