The SoapBoxers

It may be a harsh statement on my part but I believe that the United Kingdom can no longer call itself a legitimate country in terms of being a relevant world power or relevant to the fight on terror.  The fall of the British empire is well documented as the United States took its place as the primary world power a long time ago but this article is more about the legitimacy of the UK as a country to be considered a voice of reason in the world and someone to ally ourselves with when solving world problems.

In case you have not been to London lately you really should make a trip as it does not feel like the London of 10 years ago.  While all of the wonderful historical sites are still around the chemical makeup of the city and the country has changed.  The UK is now under heavy Muslim influence and in many cases under the influence of Muslim radicals.  The concern that many European countries are now having with the influx of Muslim immigrants has already manifested itself in the UK.  While most of the European countries have historically had strong religious ties they typically have operated in a similar fashion to the United States in that church and state were separate when making policy decisions.  At least in the UK this line is being blurred but the odd thing is the religious beliefs that are blurring them are not the historical religion of the UK but Islam.

The point of attack for the Muslims in the UK has squarely been Israel.  Most of this started with the normal rallies and boycotts of Israeli products and while these are obviously damaging they don’t necessarily reflect the tone of the government.  The event that I believe has now squarely moved this from being just a statement from some radical groups to being a statement of the government is the issuing of arrest warrants for former Israeli Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni.  The Muslim radicals in the UK are leveraging the preposterous report from the UN regarding the last military engagement by Israel to declare Israeli officials as war criminals.  This has prompted Israel to cancel trips for its diplomats and even IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) soldiers for fear of being placed under arrest.

For those that have not grasped my point here you have to look at this in perspective.  We are discussing the UK which most Americans probably consider closest to us in ideology after Canada.  This is not supposed to be a backwards country or a supporter of Muslim terrorists movements but how can you explain the weakness in their government regarding policy toward Israel?  I am guessing it can only be explained in the same manner that all crazy political moves can be explained, votes.  As the Muslim population sky rockets, growth of 500,000 in the last 4 years as the number of Christians shrunk by 2 million, the politicians have a new voting base they need to appease.

As a final thought, in case you still do not grasp the lunacy of the issuance of this arrest warrant consider how you would feel if the same warrant was issued for US General David Petraeus as many of the things that Israel is accused of are the same things the US is accused.  Appeasement of Muslim radicals will be the downfall of society.

This is my first live article in about a week. The newest member of the Observer family was welcomed into the world last Tuesday. It was a bit earlier than planned, but we’re happy he decided to join us. We’ll be even happier once he figures out the difference between day and night.

With a new baby in the house, I have understandably been a bit behind on sports news. That’s a bit of a shame, since it has been a pretty newsworthy week.

There are reports that Matt Holliday is closed to signing a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. I’d love to see this happen. If the Rockies can’t have Holliday (and it appears that they can’t) then the Cardinals would probably be my second favorite landing spot, since they are currently my second favorite baseball team.  One of the rumors sets the terms of the contract at $112 million over 7 years – an average of $16 million per year.  This would be comparable to the deal that Jason Bay signed with the Mets (worth up to $80 million over 5 years if his option vests).  A key point is the length of the contract – a 7 year deal would be a nice coup for agent Scott Boras.  Holliday and Bay are often regarded as being comparably productive offensively, with Holliday deemed the better defender.

Texas Tech coach Mike Leach, who led the Red Raiders to the brink of an undefeated seasons in 2008, was summarily dismissed by the team.  The school says that Leach mistreated a player by forcing him to stay in a dark shed near the practice field when the player had suffered a concussion in a previous practice.  The school then fired Leach for refusing to apologize to the player.  I’ll admit that I haven’t been getting all of the sports news lately, but this seems to be just a fraction of the story.  I find it difficult to believe that a school would fire a winning coach over an incident with one player.  On the other hand, there is a renewed focus on concussions recently, as well as a few firings of coaches who were deemed to be abusive.

Iowa State hung on in the Insight Bowl to pick up a 14-13 victory over their northern neighbors, the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  The Cyclones finished the season with 7 wins, up from just two wins in 2008.  At the end of 2008, I was cautiously optimistic for this year, as I felt that the team had been more competitive than in 2007.  However, I did not expected new head coach Paul Rhoads to take the team to a bowl game quite yet.  The team was just a couple of bad breaks away from having 8 or 9 wins.  The best win of the year?  The 9-7 victory over Nebraska – courtesy of 8 turnovers by the eventual Big XII North champion Cornhuskers.

And in the “what were they thinking” segment, Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton of the NBA’s Washington Wizards reportedly pulled guns on each other in a dispute over debts arising from card games.  It seems that we have a couple of issues here.  First, if you need to use a gun to settle a gambling debt, your elevator probably doesn’t go all the way to the top.  Second, if you’re incurring large enough gambling debts that would cause a teammate to pull a gun on you, you just might have a gambling problem.  Seriously, guys, you’re living the dream of millions of kids – making some serious coin for playing basketball.  Don’t mess it up with something stupid.

How do I keep up the pace? This is a question that many authors face, sometimes in their own heads, sometimes honestly and out in the open. Some people would suggest setting aside specific time. This is a great idea if you have that kind scheduling skill/flexibility. Establishing specific times, you could set yourself up for additional pressure, so be careful. Always approach writing as what you want to be doing right now, not something you have to be doing.

There are always opportunities to have extra time to write. Evenings when on travel are much better used writing than drinking, unless you are in sales. Take a lap top computer with you when ever your kids have activities. Take that lap top when shopping with your wife, especially at specialty stores that provide chairs for husbands. Sorry, I don’t have advice for our female readers, men’s shopping locations don’t usually have seating areas.

As far as setting a writing pace, this can be a good thing. Set your pace for an appropriate time scale. Look at a weekly rate, not daily or hourly. It is just like tracking your weight, checking too often will just get you twisted up with the numbers. If you have a bad day, you will eventually have a good day. When you are on a role, try not to stop. Staying up late is not a bad thing as long as it is productive. If you get all of your ideas down, you will sleep better.

Another way to keep your writing pace, don’t get tied down by a single story. If you get bogged down, start something else or try to go back to something you have put on hold. If you have having that much trouble, the creative juices for that story line have dried up. Let it go and the well will refill. Sometimes even just writing gibberish can help, odd but true. Try just writing down what you are currently hearing, like the conversation at the next table at the coffee shop. If you don’t have conversations around you, write descriptions of what is in your field of view. All of these efforts are to distract you from your block while keeping you writing.

Remember that all ideas are good, some are just better than others. The best way to keep your writing pace up is to keep writing. The goal is, of course, to complete the stories that are floating around in your head. The first step to reaching that goal is to get as many of the ideas down on paper (or in the computer) as possible. Do the math. If you don’t write anything, your pace is zero. Anything you write will be beneficial, even if you cannot see that benefit right now. Try your best and remember to

–KEEP WRITING–

During most of the more than 130 years that major league baseball has been played, the measurement of defensive excellence was done using one simple stat: errors. To this day, many who vote for gold glove winners make errors the major consideration (or, in some situation, they make the absurd choice to factor in the player’s offensive contributions).

Errors are a funny thing. First of all, an error is the judgment of the home team’s official scorer. All official scorers are not created equal – some are more kind to fielders than others. If you happen to play for a scorer who doesn’t call many errors, you’ll rack up fewer errors. The field itself can also contribute to the number of errors. Some fields produce a more consistent movement from the ball, while others are more prone to odd hops. A team can also choose to allow the grass to grow higher – with the result being that the ball is moving more slowly, thus giving the fielder more time to react (this does have the related effect of allowing batters to more easily beat out an infield hit).

So, what, then, should we use? Putouts and assists? These are just as bad. First of all, strikeouts can affects these numbers. A team whose pitchers rack up a lot of strikeouts will result in relatively few chances for fielders to make a play on the ball. Additionally, the quality of the other players also has an effect. Put a great defensive shortstop alongside a second baseman and third baseman who have limited range, and the shortstop is going to rack up some very impressive assist numbers, as he’ll suck up everything between second and third. On the other hand, put great defensive players and second base, shortstop, and third base, and it is likely that all of them will have strong statistics, but none of them will produce eye popping numbers. Why? Because regardless of how good this trio is, there are a finite number of balls that will be hit into this area – and they are competing with each other for the chances.

There are advanced defensive metrics to measure the quality of the defense, but these aren’t something the casual fan is going to be able to measure easily. I would suggest a rather simple system for scoring at home. The system is based on the fact that the defensive player’s goal should not merely be to reduce the number of errors they make, but to minimize the number of base runners the teams allows.

• Error on a routine play: -1 points
• Error on what would have been a great play: 0 points
• Didn’t get to a ball he should have gotten to: -1 points
• Great defensive play: +1 points

What does this system do? First, it rewards a player for making an effort on a player that would typically go for a hit. Even if the player fails to make a play on the ball, he isn’t penalized. Indeed, why should he be penalized? If a player makes a great defensive play to get to a ball, and then pulls the first baseman off the bag with his throw, why treat him worse (by charging him with an error) than a player who never got to the ball in the first place?

The second thing the system does is penalize players who have deficient range. If I don’t get to a ball that 90% of players in the league would get to, this is just as bad as if I get to the ball and make an error – in either case, the runner reaches.

Use this system for a while and see what it tells you about player on your team. Maybe that error-prone defensive player is actually saving your team a ton of runs because he’s getting to balls that nobody else would lay a glove on (and occasionally making errors on those balls). Maybe that gold glove second baseball rarely makes an error because he has the range of a mannequin.

One internet battle I expect to be fought in 2010 is the battle over net (network) neutrality.  This is not a new battle, and has been on the radar for a few years now.  I am hoping that 2010 is the year when the government finally draws a line in the sand.

What is net neutrality?  It is the concept that all network traffic be treated the same.  The tiny email you send to your mother has the exact same priority as your neighbor’s multi-gigabyte Youtube downloads.  Internet service providers could relieve network congestion by throttling (intentionally slowing) heavy use such as downloads – but this would violate a principle of net neutrality.

It’s easy to see why users are largely in favor of net neutrality – nobody wants their internet experience degraded.  Users would much prefer to see internet service providers (ISPs) make their networks more robust.

On the flip side of the debate are the ISPs, who would like to be allowed to throttle or force big internet companies to pay them for the privilege of allowing access to their site.  The ISPs claim that certain companies are getting a free ride.  Specifically former SBC CEO (and current GM CEO) Ed Whitacre claimed that Google was getting a free ride.  The idea has become a key point for the ISPs.

Is there any merit to this?  No.  Google pays enormous costs for its infrastructure, as well as paying for the bandwidth that allows people to access and download data from them.  Do they pay for the bandwidth required for my ISP to send the data along to me?  Of course not.  That’s what I’m paying for when I pay my ISP bill.  If the ISPs want Google and other web companies to pay for their costs, when why should I have to pay anything?  This is a blatant attempt to double dip.  Further, it’s blatantly dishonest; an obvious attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of some people who might not fully understand the workings of the internet.

My general rule of thumb is that if you have to lie to make your point, your point probably isn’t valid.

So, then, if I’m not in favor of putting the ISPs on GoogleFare (like welfare, but taking money from Google instead) am I am least amenable to throttling?  No.  My data, regardless of size, is no more of less important than anyone else’s data.  No data should be subject to any artificial constraint, other than the published bandwidth limit.  (Interestingly, I’m not actually a very heavy user – but that doesn’t prevent me from feeling the pain of those who are).

If you want to place limits on usage, go ahead – but I believe you should be forced to disclose these limitations in a very obvious way in advertising and on contracts.  Will this make it appear as if you are providing service that is inferior to that of your competitors, allowing them to eat your lunch?  Yes … but it’s only fair, since you actually ARE providing inferior service.

First, I’ll note that these goals are all professional, rather than personal.  As in the past, I will go forward somewhat anonymously.  I’m not completely anonymous, though – my picture is actually me, and if we interact offline, you’ll recognize me.

I resolve to put forth a serious effort into my novel, Casting Stones.  I got off to a roaring start in November, writing more than 7000 words.  December has been much different, with fewer than 500 words.  Furthermore, I have become dissatisfied with what I have so far, and will likely end up rewriting all of it.  This is not entirely a bad thing.  What I have written so far is light on descriptions and really just rushes to move the plot forward.  This has always been a problem with my longer writing.

I resolve to submit a series of short stories to the Iowa Short Fiction Award contest.  This requires a 150 page double spaced manuscript.  If I keep writing stories at my current rate, reaching this length should be no problem at all, and I should actually be able to do some editing and removed some of the inferior stories.

I resolve to someone finish the “long” story for the 4th quarter of 2009.  This has died on the vine a bit, and with a baby due in the coming weeks, it is unlikely that it will be finished soon.  Still, I’m hoping to having this finished by early February.  Alternately, I may choose to write several bonus short stories for volume 3 of The Fiction of Kosmo.

I resolve to have minimal turnover in staff in 2010.  2009 was a pretty crazy year.  I’m sure some of your heads were spinning at times, due to the rapid addition of writers.  I’m happy with the staff we have right now – in both the caliber of the writers and the breadth of the content.  I wouldn’t mind having a bit more content that appeals to women, so if anything is added in 2010, that would be the area I seek to address.  We also have a couple of writers currently on sabbatical, and I’m hoping they return in earlyb 2010.

I don’t thank my writers enough for the work they do.  Their only pay is future profit sharing – which either means they expect us to turn a profit at some point, or that they simply enjoy writing.  I suspect that they enjoy writing, and hope that maybe they earn a few dollars at some point.

I resolve to steer The Soap Boxers out of the red and into the black.  I really haven’t focused much on finances in 2009, instead choosing to focus on the content of the site.  I’ll still focus heavily on the content in 2010, but with the current staffing level, I should have more time to work on actively driving traffic to the site.

I resolve to get on Twitter more often.  Currently, most of my Tweets are just automatically generated announcements of new posts.  In 2010, I’ll try to be more active on Twitter, and allow follower to gain greater insights into my life.  This doesn’t mean I will be tweeing 24/7, because I have a pretty small tweeting windows (a couple of hours every night).

I resolve to publish at least 325 articles in 2010.  That’s 6.5 a week, allowing us to go without an article once per fortnight.  We published 370+ articles in 2009, so I think we can definitely achieve this.

thank you for reading and have a great 2010.

Wal-Mart Ship to Store

Wal-Mart gets a lot of negative publicity, but one thing that they get right is Ship to Store. You buy an item on WalMart.com, choose to have it shipped to a nearby store, and pick it up when it arrives at the store. The shipping is completely free.

I keep waiting for more stores to follow Wal-Mart’s lead, but there hasn’t been a big rush to offer this service. Sure, some stores will offer free shipping on purchases over a certain amount or with special coupons – but I’m unaware of other stores offering free shipping to a local store for absolutely anything purchase through the store’s web site. We recently purchased a forty pound item – I shudder at how much the shipping would have been on this item through another vendor.

I’m really confused about why more stores don’t offer this. This is a golden opportunity to have people walk into your store. When people walk into a store, they usually spend Monday. Wal-Mart also smartly locates the Ship to Store counter way in the back of the store – so that you have to walk though several aisles of merchandise in order to pick up your item.

How does is work? Wal-Mart is nice enough to explain the process on its web site. Your item is first sent from a warehouse to a distribution center. Then, it is loaded on a truck that goes to your local store. Thing about this for a minute. There’s already a truck going from the warehouse to the distribution center. There’s already a truck going from the distribution center to the local store. This means that the marginal shipping cost for Wal-Mart is very low.

Target Pricing

My wife really likes Target, so we end up there quite often. One thing that annoys that crap out of me is unit pricing of some items. The particular item that is the target of much of my ire is Charmin toilet paper. Regardless of which size is on sale in a given week, the 30 pack ALWAYS costs more per roll than at least one of the smaller sizes. I once asked a worker if they were aware of this. Yep, they were aware of it. Nothing they could do, since prices are set by corporate.

I’ve run into the same problem with bottles of ranitidine (generic version of Zantac). Some times the unit price of the larger bottles would be almost twice as much as the smaller bottles. With respect to ranitidine, the issue of “we can’t control what corporate does” reared its ugly head. Target was out of the store brand ranitidine for literally months on end. For those who aren’t aware, this is an extremely common medication. When I asked when they might be getting a shipment, the employee told me that they didn’t know – corporate just sends them a shipment, with no input from the store! So I went to Wal-Mart and grabbed some of their store brand product.

Last week, we had to pick up some Goldfish (the crackers, not the animals). On the end cap, they were prices at $3.49. Within he aisle, the exact same box was priced $3.29. Guess which price rang up on the register? Yep, you guess it, $2.59. With a cart full of items and a two year old that need to needed to get home before bed time, we didn’t point out the discrepancy. We’re not exactly sure if this was some sort of unadvertised sale … or if the correct price was $3.29, or perhaps $3.49.

In January, the Baseball Writers of America will announce the 2010 Hall of Fame class. For the thirteenth time, Bert Blyleven will be on the ballot. Twelve prior times, he has fallen short in his bid for enshrinement at Cooperstown. I truly hope that this is the year for Bert.

To make my case for Blyleven, I’ll compare him to another pitcher.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Pitcher A:

• Over the course of 692 games, compiled a .534 winning percentage.
• Compiled a career ERA of 3.31
• Had an adjusted ERA+ of 118 (this is an advanced statistic that adjusts ERA for ballpark and the pitcher’s league. A higher number is better).
• Had a career strikeout : walk ratio of 2.80
• Compiled 15 or more wins in 10 different seasons
• Compiled 15 or more losses in 7 seasons (5 of these seasons before he turned 26).
• Never won a Cy Young award

Pitcher B:

• Over the course of 807 games, compiled a .526 winning percentage.
• Compiled a career ERA of 3.19.
• Compiled a career ERA+ of 111 (remember, higher is better).
• Had a career strikeout : walk ratio of 2.04
• Compiled 15 or more wins in 8 different seasons
• Compiled 15 or more losses in 6 seasons
• Never won a Cy Young award

Based on those resumes, which pitcher would you give the nod to? I’d lean toward pitcher A. Although his actual ERA is higher, when adjusted to ERA+, it is better than pitcher B’s. His strikeout : walk ratio shows a better command of the strike zone.

It won’t surprise you that pitcher A is Bert Blyleven.

It may surprise you that pitcher B is first ballot Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan.

Ryan is of course known for his strikeouts. He is the all-time leader with 5714 (Blyleven is 5th at 3701). Randy Johnson, at 4875 and counting, is in second place and will probably wind up slightly above 5000 (or roughly 87.5% of Ryan’s record). Are strikeouts really that important? (Hint: read this article for your answer.)

What’s not as well known is that Ryan is also the career leader for walks, with 2795. Steve Carlton is a very distant second at 1833 (65.6% of Ryan’s record).

While it is extremely unlikely that anyone will ever break Ryan’s strikeout record, it is a virtual certainty that nobody will break the walk record. A pitcher who walks batters at Ryan’s rate would quickly find himself on a bus back to AAA.

Ryan has 324 wins to Blyleven’s 287 (and also 292 losses to Bert’s 250). Wins are a problematic statistic because of the limited impact the pitcher has. Take a pitcher from the Nationals and put him on the staff of the Yankees, and his wins will skyrocket due to increased run support.

In this particular case, the fact that Ryan hung around until age 46 (while Blyleven retired at 41) is largely responsible for the difference. Ryan compiled a 51-39 record those final five years, pushing his career record from 273 – 253 to the end result of 324 – 292. Longevity is nice, but is that 51-39 record over those five years really the difference between a slam-dunk Hall of Famer and a guy at risk of never making it?

This brings us, naturally, to the no hitters. Ryan had seven while Blyleven had just one. A no hitter is great, and seven of them are a wonderful achievement. But this simply shows that on a particular night, the pitcher was dominant and/or lucky. It’s a nice footnote for a career, but it shouldn’t be the main credential for a hall of famer.  Seven nights accounts for 1% of the career starts from these guys.  The other 99% should have a bit more weight.

I’m not suggesting that we remove Nolan Ryan from the Hall of Fame – but if his credentials warranted votes from 98.8% of voters, surely Blyleven’s credential should be judged worthy by at last 75% of the voters.

What do you really want to write? That is the first question that any author has to address. Are you into short stories, poems, novels, essays? All of the various forms of written expression have deferent demands. The poet seems to be the most unique of all authors. Poetry within itself can tell a story, paint a picture and fulfill a structure, but that is the same for all writing. The work you choose does not define you, you define the work. Anything you put to pen (or these days to keyboard) is your creation, your will causes it to exist.

I have always concentrated on novels. The longer story allows me the freedom to paint pictures of the world that my characters live in. For me, it is describing a dream, and in fact I have dreamt many of the images that I write. The topic you choose may drive the type of writing you attempt. Again for me, grand sweeping vistas drive me toward novels. I don’t have the concise and artistic imagery that is required for poetry. I do not have the energy to analyze like the essayist. Some would call these ramblings essays, but they are more opinion pieces that I spew forth in single sittings when the urge hits me. I have attempted short stories, but always return to add more detail, fill in holes, take the story to that next scene.

When someone claims that one form or topic is easier than others, this can only be true for them. Techniques can be shared and are almost always helpful, but seldom in the way intended or expected. For example, I like to write in a continuous narrative, going back over the ‘completed’ sections to verify continuity and right wrongs. I like to read in the same fashion, front to back referencing earlier parts to check up on the author. Others can skip about, writing sections that they later weave into the whole, or reading chapters as they see fit, to keep themselves entertained.

I have recently embarked on my second novel this year. My first was an entry into the National Novel Writing Month (ref NaNoWriMo.org). This new one is just to fulfill the joy that writing has given me. I have been traveling a lot recently, and writing on those lonely evenings in hotels has kept my spirits up and kept my home sickness at bay. My first effort was a romance. I don’t know why, but I got a story in my head about a young man who lost his memory and had to find out who he was. I guess I really wanted to explore how you could learn about someone who knew and loved you when you did not know what was going on. In addition to the romance part, I included a lot about simple farming, which I admit is a fantasy that I will never get to live out.

This second story is also something that has been haunting my dreams. It is a science fiction detective story with a lot of space exploration. Now I am a trained Aerospace Engineer and have worked directly for NASA and for private companies contracted to perform work for NASA. I have worked on both the Space Station and the Space Shuttle. I would even consider several current and former astronauts to be my friends. Every spring I perform a community service by talking to middle school students about the space race of the 1950s, 60s and 70s.

I will admit that at least a kernel of this story was started back when I was in middle school. I found some of my old musings while cleaning out some storage containers. My writing (I believe) is much better now than back then, but the creative ideas are similar.

My suggestion to everyone is, if you get an idea, write it down. It may come to nothing, it may have to be modified so often it looks nothing like the original. But then again, it could be the start you are looking for. You can only write if you start. That first sentence will lead to another. That first paragraph will eventually make sense. That first page will get filled. Don’t throw anything away, in this computer age, just save it away for later. There will be days that you are on fire; 500, 1000, 5000 words. There will be days of nothing. Don’t just sit stewing over it if nothing seems to be brewing. Get up, do something. Clear you mind of writing by concentrating on something else. In this world there is always something to do.

In my latest effort, I have violated the method that I described just a couple of paragraphs ago. I have written two scenes that I will have to weave in. Why did I do this? Because the scenes played out in my mind, I had to write them down. Will they work? I don’t know. I may have to cut them into some special file for use in another effort.

I wrote in an earlier column that the one of the most important things and author needs is a good editor. I stand by that claim. We, each of us, can be the most flattering supporter and cruelest critic of our own work. Most of us underestimate our own worth and the worth of our work. A good editor will polish our writing without claiming it as their own. If you are ever graced with the opportunity to edit for someone else, remember that it is their work, not yours.

This has turned into quite a pep talk. In the end there is only one really good piece of advice for perspective authors. –KEEP WRITING–

I’m asking for your opinion today.  What do you think is the absolute worst rule in all of sports?  (Please avoid submitting anything related to Calvinball).

My vote goes to the NCAA rule that I dub “down without contact”.  A player can slip and fall when he is twenty yards from the nearest opposing player, and by rule he is down at that spot.  The the Texas-Nebraska Big XII championship game, this happened to a Texas kick returner at a very late stage in the game, and pinned Texas deep in their own territory.

Seriously.  These guys are elite athletes.  Let them jump back to their feet and continue to run until someone actually tackles them.

OK, your turn – what’s your least favorite rule?