The SoapBoxers

It’s September already, and baseball season is winding down (unless you’re a fan of the Cubs, in which case the season has been over for a long time).

This is always a bittersweet time of the year.  I love pennant races and the playoffs, but hate to see the season end.  As always, this has been a strange and wonderful season.  Let’s look back.

First, of course, we’ll start with my Colorado Rockies.  It’s been a disappointing season at Coors Field.  The Rockies started out 11-1 before fading out of contention in May.  Injuries played a part (particularly with the pitching staff), as did sub-par offensive performances by some players.

The biggest news of the season, of course, was the trade of Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians.  I like Ubaldo, but when you get the chance to nab Drew Pomeranz in a trade, while also picking up some other pieces, you have to make the deal.  Pomeranz is recovered from an appendectomy and will make his major league debut on Sunday against the Reds.

Troy Tulowitzki continues to make the case that he is the best all-around shortstop in the game – and one of the best players, period.  While playing gold glove caliber defense, Tulo has also contributed a .305 average with 30 homers and 103 RBI.  How impressive is that?  His closest pursuer among NL shortstops in homers and RBI is Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies.  Rollins has 14 homers and 58 RBI – 16 homers and 45 RBI behind Tulo.  And while Tulo is indeed killing the ball at Coors Field (.960 OPS), he’s also posted superb numbers on the road (.897 OPS).  Considering that the typical hitter has an OPS 31 points higher at home, Coors doesn’t seem to be inflating Tulo’s numbers much at all (especially if you believe in the existence of a Coors Hangover).

If the Rockies were in contention, it would be difficult to argue against Tulo as the MVP.

One of the most unappreciated performances in baseball is coming from another Rockie, Chris Iannetta.  Iannetta is much criticized for his poor batting average (.238), but a high number of walks elevates his OBP to a quite good .370, and he has 12 homers in just 320 at bats.  I’m sure the Rockies are going to cut ties with Chris at some point, and a team that properly utilizes him is going to get good value.

The most disappointing performance for me this year was Ian Stewart.  I’ve always liked Stewie, and he has shown good power (54 homers in 1242 career at bats) but has struggle to make consistent contact.  His batting average sank to a career low .156 this year and stands at .236 for his career – not high enough for a third baseman.  He’s been in a funk all year, and with just 122 at bats, didn’t get a chance to hit his way out of it.  I think a lot of people forget that Stewie is still just 26.  I see him as a possible reclamation project – but probably in another uniform.

OK, so what’s going out outside Denver?

Justin Verlander is kindling the argument of whether or not a pitcher can be MVP.  Personally, I’m OK with this.  While it’s true that a starting pitcher plays only once every five days, his impact on those games is far greater than the impact of any other player.  Verlander is already at 21 wins and is the main reason why the Tigers were able to push the Indians aside and claim first place in the AL Central.

Zach Greinke made news in the spring with an basketball-related injury and then got off to a slow start.  However, after posting a 5.45 ERA prior to the All Star break, he has a 2.41 ERA since.

How good are the Phillies pitchers?  Four of them have 11 or more wins and an ERA of 2.85 or better (Halladay and Lee are a combined 32-12 with a 2.48 ERA).  Conventional wisdom suggest using a three man rotation in the playoffs – but might the Phillies go four deep and have their guys 100% fresh for each start?

Remember when Albert Pujols was going to miss a couple of months with an injury and cost himself a bunch of money when he wouldn’t be able to prove that he still had his power?  I think he’s OK.

The National League has no interesting races this year.  The closest divisional race is the NL West, where the Diamondbacks hold a 6 game lead over the Giants.  Even the wild card race is a yawner, with the Braves holding a 7.5 game lead over the Cardinals.  In the AL, the Yankees and Red Sox are having their annual battle for the division title, with the Devil Rays putting together yet another strong season.  The Rangers hold a 3.5 game lead on the Angels in the best “loser stays home” race.  Angels rookie Mike Trout has hooked some media attention by making the best of his second call-up to the majors, stringing five homers on his line in just 84 at bats.  Is the 20 year old from Jersey up for good?

And finally … we’re a week away from the release of Moneyball.  I hope the movie is as good as the book (but I doubt it will be).

When I was in high school, we filled out questionnaires to gauge our interests.  When the results came back, we were given handouts about which careers would be a good fit.

Most people received info on a few careers.  Two of us received the entire handout, with information on dozens of different careers.  The computers had choked on our answers and couldn’t really determine where we fit.  Even at this early stage, The Man was learning not to pigeonhole the Kos.

I ended up working in IT.  It’s an interesting job on most days, a good company to work for, and my co-workers are great.  Often, though, I wonder what it would have been like to end up in a different job.  Here’s my list of dream jobs.

1.  Baseball player.  I’m 36, so the window is really closing on this.  Lack of talent could also be a roadblock.

1B.  Baseball General Manager.  If I can’t play the game, why not control the game?  The general manager is in charge of nearly every aspect of team operations, from the annual draft to trades.

2.  Writer – As the Beatles would say, I want to be a paperback writer.  I’ve had an interest in writing since elementary school.  In recent years, I’ve been working harder toward this goal.  It would be great if I can eventually become a full-time writer, but barring that, it’s a fun part-time gig.

3.  Paleontologist – You didn’t see that one coming, did you?  I’ve had a deep interest in dinosaurs since the day I was first made aware of them.  I’m sure that a large part of the allure is that fact that this is an almost entirely theoretical field.  The fossil record can provide a lot of clues, but you can’t directly observe dinosaurs.  (Or can you?  maybe a trip to Costa Rica would do the trick?)

4.  FBI Agent – At one point, I went as far as contacting them regarding a position in the computer crimes division.  By the time I heard back from them, life circumstances had changed and the window had pretty much closed.  Computer crimes would be an interesting gig, but so would forensic science.  Although I don’t watch the fictionalized shows like CSI, I’m a big fan of The Forensic Files.

5.  Lawyer – If you’ve been a long time reader, you’ve probably seen me swerve into legal topics from time to time.  I’ve always found the law interesting.  I’d be interested in a lot of different areas, but I think I’d end up as a defense lawyer (with only innocent people for clients, of course).

6.  Professional student – If money was no option, I’d pursue a few degrees (or maybe just attend a few hundred random classes).  I have a very broad set of interests, and could easily fill the rest of my life learning new things (and reading contemporary fiction in my down time).

Now it’s your turn.  If you could change jobs, what would you be?

“To our health,” exclaimed Charles.

“He’s here,” announced Tiffany Belkin, as she clinked champagne glasses with her dinner companion, took a sip of the sparkling wine, and leaned toward Charles for a quick kiss. Sitting in a dark corner of the restaurant on a busy Saturday night, they were indistinguishable from a number of other young couples, enjoying a romantic dinner on a pleasant spring evening.

A block away, Tiffany’s words caused the personnel in the van to go on high alert.

A short distance from Tiffany and Charles, their quarry was perusing the menu.

“What would you recommend?” he asked the man sitting across from him.

“What a silly question, dear Marcel. The prime rib, but of course.”

Marcel smiled at Boris’s characteristic response. Each time they met to do business, Boris selected prime rib.

“Don’t you ever tire of the prime rib, Boris? Perhaps a rib eye, veal parmigiana, or even a nice Caesar salad?”

“Salad? Salad? We are carnivores. Carnivores. Man rose not to the top of the food chain with the eating of lettuce.”

“You keep talking that way and people are going to mistake you for an American.”

“Good, good,” said Boris with a smile. “That would suit my needs very well.”

Charles winked at Tiffany as Boris uttered these words. Confirmation that Boris was a foreign national on U.S. soil for the sole purpose of espionage. Tiffany returned his wink and placed a hand on his thigh. Undercover work had its advantages, he mused.

Marcel opted for shrimp, while Boris remanded dedicated to his prime rib. As they waited for their meals to arrive, the conversation shifted toward business.

“I have a package for you,” announced Boris.

“And I for you,” responded Marcel.

“You have the real deal, yes? I’ve encountered some problems with some of your comrades. In a few cases, outright forgeries.”

“Oh no,” replied Marcel with a soothing smile. “I’ve got the bona fide stuff – intellectual property of the U.S. government.”

“Yes, I believe you do. My people have a great deal of trust in you.”

Tiffany leaned over and whispered into Charles’s ear. “BUSTED. We got ’em! This is so exciting.”

Charles kissed her gently on the lips while speaking softly to her. “We still need to wait for the transfer.”

Tiffany nodded in response and gulped the rest of her champagne with a giggle. Charles could see the impact the adrenaline was having on her – transforming her from merely pretty into an extremely seductive woman. He could feel himself being drawn into her web … but the time for such thoughts was later. They needed to focus on the task at hand.

An hour later, as Marcel crossed the street carrying the package from Boris, he was apprehended by federal agents. Inside the restaurant, Boris smiled as the attractive women from a nearby table sat down across from him. He had noticed her earlier. He smiled with anticipation. American women were so bold.

Then her male companion slide in beside her, and Boris frowned. “What is the meaning of this?”

“Federal agents,” explained Tiffany, flashing her badge.

“We’re busted your little spy ring, commie,” explained Charles.

“Spy?”

“Give us the package.”

Boris slowly handed the packaged to Charles, who ripped it open. He stared at the contents for a long moment, trying to make sense of it.

“Stamps?”

“Stamps,” replied Boris. “I am a collector, as is Marcel. We trade.”

“We heard you discussing forgeries, and documents that were the intellectual property of the U.S. government,” pressed Tiffany.

“Of course they are the intellectual property of your government. They are the ones who commission the artwork for the stamps. And forgeries … ah, this is the scourge of the hobby. You can never be sure until you place them under a magnifier, but Marcel comes to me well recommended.”

In the van, a similar scene was unfolding. A half hour later, the agents were drowning their sorrows in a nearby bar. Marcel Ackerman of the State Department was not a spy after all. Once again, bad information had led them astray, and they had harassed innocent people. Sometimes this job sucked.

In a hotel across town, Boris Korovin was using an Xacto knife to split the cover of a stamp album into two pieces. He pulled out the document encased between the halves, placed the album to the side, and began work on the next one in the pile.

Note: this fiction story is based very loosely on an interaction between alleged U.S. spy Felix Bloch (a State Department employee) and a Soviet agent whom Bloch knew as Pierre Bart.  You can read more about Bloch on Wikipedia. 

The big news in the sports world today is Michael’s Vick’s new six year, one hundred million dollar deal with the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles nabbed Vick off the NFL trash heap as a reclamation project after his legal troubles involving dogfighting.  Last season, Vick set career highs with 21 touchdowns and 3018 passing yards, while tossing only 6 interceptions.  The Eagles were sold on Vick enough to trade away former savior Kevin Kolb.

Obviously, Vick’s greatest asset is his ability to scramble.  Vick has surpassed 500 rushing yards in a season on 5 occasions, and has even topped 1000 yards once.  His career rushing average of 7.1 yards per carry is very impressive.  His ability to run also buys him time to find an open receiver.

Unfortunately, those legs are going to get old.  In the last year of that deal, you’re going to be watching a 36 year old Michael Vick who last lost a step or three.  The rushing yards will drop and the number of sacks will climb a bit.  He’ll have to win games with his arms instead of his legs.  Can he do that?  Let’s look at the numbers throughout his career.

* denotes partial year

Let’s look at those TD:INT ratio.  0.67, 2:1, 1.33:1, 1.17:1, 1.15:1, 1.54:1.  Last year, he had a ratio of  3.5:1.  Those aren’t great ratios, and it’s quite possible that the interceptions could climb if Vick’s declining speed forces him to make more throws that he does today.  In spite of his obvious talent, his career high in total passing+rushing yards is the 3694 yards from last season.  Far from being a 4000 yard passer, Vick isn’t even a 4000 yard player.

Worth having on your team?  Certainly.  Worth $16M this year?  Perhaps.  Worth $16M in 2016?  Probably not.  Of course, NFL deals are non-guaranteed, so the Eagles could also cut Vick to shed payroll.

Around the NFL

Peyton Manning has been clear for limited practice.  There’s still a good chance he won’t be available for the season opener on September 11.  The Colts coaxed veteran QB Kerry Collins out of retirement to take the reins if Manning in unable to go.  The existing backups for the Colts did not inspire much confidence.

The Raiders drafted Terrelle Pryor in the third round of the supplemental draft (which means they will forfeit their third round pick in the 2011 draft.  Pryor will not be eligible to play until the sixth week of the season. Is the “born to be bad” Raiders organization the best fit for a guy who ran afoul of NCAA regs? Probably not.

Crittenton Arrested on Murder Charges

Former NBA player Javaris Crittenton was arrested Monday.  Authorities allege that he fatally shot Jullian Jones on August 19.  They also believe that Jones, a mother of four, was not the intended victim, but that Crittenton was trying to get revenge for an earlier robbery.

Crittenton was a one-and-one player at Georgia Tech.  He was drafted 19th overall in the 2007 drafted.  Since then, he has played for three NBA teams (he also signed with a fourth team, the Bobcats, but did not play for them), China’s Zhejiang Guangsha Lions, and most recently the Dakota Wizards of the NBA’s developmental league.  In February of 2010, he was in the midst of a locker room incident involving guns.

All this, and Crittenton is still just 23 years old.

[Editor’s note: turn back the clock to October 13, 2008.  In a dark corner of Blogspot, I launched the blog that would become The Soap Boxers.  This was the very first article.  As alluded to in the original title, and again in the final sentence, Jonathan Swift’s A Modest Proposal was an inspiration for this article.]

A modest proposal: guerilla investments tactics

Many times, we hear about class warfare. The poor and middle class doing battle with the rich.

Unfortunately, this is not the battle that they should be fighting. Instead of fighting people outside of your socioeconomic status, you should instead be fighting the people within your own financial strata.

There are two ways to get ahead in life. You can pull yourself up or push others down. Is it easier to climb the ladder, or to push others off? Is it easier to sail around the world, or to sit in ambush and sink the ships of those who would attempt such a folly?

In the financial arena, many people are overlooking a simple fact. The prices of goods and services rise and fall with respect to the relative supply and demand. You might have a million dollars in the bank – but the true test of wealth is what you can buy with the money.

I recommend commencing guerrilla economic warfare.

In order to reduce the prices of goods, it is simply necessary to reduce the demand. One way to do this is to drain the resources of people in your financial strata, effectively pushing them down into a lower class. Today, there might be five people who are interested in purchasing a certain item. If you can cause three of these people to encounter financial difficulties, you will reduce the competition (demand) for the item, and thus the price.

One of the more effective ways to do this is to convince your victims to play the lottery heavily. Not only does this reduce the finances of your friend, but also takes the money out of the private sector. In theory, it should even reduce – or stall the increase – in your state income tax by providing extra revenue to the state.

You should proceed with caution when suggesting plans that would transfer wealth from your victim to others in the private sector. You do not, of course, want him to give the money to someone who is slightly below you in wealth, allowing the receiver to climb into your class. This would be a complete waste of energy, as it would result in no change in your relative wealth.

Instead, you should convince them to give their money to people who are much wealthier. Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have little impact on the market for three bedroom houses. In a best case scenario, you want the money to go to someone with very few employees, to reduce the possibility that the wealthy person’s employees could climb into your financial strata. Ponzi schemes and other scams work very nicely.

Take this advice to heart, and be Swift in your actions. Your financial future is at stake.

OK, it’s a grab bag of random thoughts today.

First of all, the other writers don’t get enough credit.  This site stated out as my baby, and in the early days I was writing 5-7+ articles every single week.  I can’t imagine how this was possible, but I made it happen.  Over the years, the number of regular writers has grown to the point where I write between one and three articles each week – much more manageable.  In addition to taking a big chunk of the load, the other writers also introduce unique perspectives.  A heartfelt thank you.

There’s a new car in Kosmo’s garage.  The first three car purchases I made were Ford Tauruses.  This time around, not only did we go outside the Ford family, but also with a foreign car maker.  The “new” car is a 2007 Hyundai Elantra with about about 66,000 miles on it.  It will be used primarily for for 70 mile round trip commute.  The previous owner stated that it would get 35 on long stretches of highway.  I can definitely believe that.  I mix in a bit of town driving and am getting in the 32-33 mpg range so far.

I’m still hoping to see more $99 HP Touchpads pop onto the market after seeing my order confirmed and then canceled.  However, in fairness, it sounds like I was only able to place an order in the first place because of a glitch with Barnes and Noble’s web site.

Hurricane Irene is going to be in the news all weekend, and she threatens the east coast.  I’m hoping for the best.  If you’re in the affected region, please stay safe and heed any warnings (or orders) to evacuate.  Many people are watching New York City, which has tremendous financial exposure to a hurricane.  Hopefully the storm will have weakened somewhat by the time it hits New York.

I haven’t been writing much new fiction for the site lately.  I do apologize for that, but if you find yourself in dire need of my stories, you can always grab a copy of Mountains, Meadows, and Chasms from Amazon (Kindle edition).  I do expect to get back to at least one story per month in the future.  Weekly stories may be a thing of the past, though.

One of the reasons why I haven’t been writing as many stories – or articles – lately is the sheer number of projects on my plate at the moment.  I’m engaged in a few activities that are actually producing revenue streams, and feel obliged to devote some time to those efforts, even though they aren’t as much fun as writing fiction.

Between the activite projects and the ones I’m trying to get off the ground, I could probably work full time on my writing for the next six months without needing anything new to work on.  However, the fact that I have a “real job” means squeezing these projects into a small chunk of free time.  I’ve just begun work on a series of novellas about an unconventional detective.  I plan to do a simultaneous launch with two of the novellas (on Kindle, naturally), hopefully around the end of the year.  I’ve also gotten a start on a rather interesting non-fiction book that is currently on the back burner.  Then, of course, is my full length serial killer novel, which I’ll find the time to finish … sometime.

On Wednesday, Apple announced that CEO Steve Jobs will be stepping down from that role.  Jobs has been battling health issues – including pancreatic cancer – for several years, so the move was not completely unexpected.

For most people, Steve Jobs IS Apple.  Co-founder Jobs was forced out of Apple during a 1985 power struggle with CEO John Sculley (whom Jobs had hired).  By 1997, Apple was in a death spiral and its stock was hovering around $13 per share.  At  the close of day yesterday, Apple’s stock has trading at $373.60.  That’s impressive enough – but there have been two stock splits since then, meaning that a single $13 share has turned into 4 current shares worth a total of $1494.40.  As a longtime fan of Apple products, it was great to see Jobs initiate such a dramatic turnaround.

The big question is how this will affect Apple long-term.  Will the company endure a  recurrence of Jobs withdrawal?  I think things will be different this time, and these are the reasons:

This separation is different – The separation in 1985 was far from amicable.  Jobs was essentially fired.  This is a very different situation, with Jobs continuing as chairman of the board, as well as an Apple employee in some capacity.  He’ll be around to mentor new CEO Tim Cook as needed.  Barring a dramatic downturn in his health, Jobs is not going to simply fade into the background – he’ll still represent Apple.

The company culture is different – When Jobs was forced out in 1985, Apple was a company with a lot of infighting.  The Apple II division and the Macintosh division considered themselves to be rivals, with the Macintosh division flying a pirate flag over their building.  There was no strong sense of direction.  In fact, the Apple IIe line was not discontinued in 1993 … nine years after the introduction of the Macintosh.  While I loved the IIe as a kid, the Mac was an exponentially superior product by the time 1993 rolled around.  At the time Jobs left, the company was just 9 years old – still not fully mature.

The company is more diversified – When Jobs took over in 1997, Apple basically offered just Macs.  Jobs streamlined the number of different Mac models (at the time, there were a large number of models being sold, creating confusion for customers).  Since then, Apple has branched out into new areas (iPod, iTunes, iPhones, iPad, etc).  This diversification makes the company less vulnerable to a downturn in a specific market.

In a nutshell, I expect Apple to continue to charge forward.  Tim Cook has been with Apple since 1998, had been serving as Chief Operating Officer, and was the man Jobs had hand-picked to succeed him.  I expect that Jobs will still be involved in a lot of design decisions, while distancing himself from the more “boring” types of work.

HP TouchPad (Photo credit: blogeee.net)

On July 1, 2010, Hewlett Packard finalized a deal to buy Palm for $1.2 billion. Palm was a relatively small company struggling to keep its footing in the smart device market – competing against behemoths like Apple and Google (Android). Finally, the financial resources of industry titan HP would allow the Palm OS to thrive. My buddy Lazy Man over at Lazy Man and Money is a longtime Palm enthusiast, so this was great news for him.

Exactly a year later, HP launched a tablet based on their mobile WebOS – the HP Touchpad.  The 16 GB (storage) model debuted at $499 and the 32 GB model at $599.  This would be the tablet that would threaten market leaders Apple (iPad) and Google (makers of the Android OS that power most non-iPad tablets, such as the Samsung Galaxy).  Right?

Unfortunately, sales were lackluster.  While the Touchpad has nice integration with other WebOS devices, the fact of the matter is that there aren’t a lot of people with WebOS devices.  There were also other differentiation features – such as support for Adobe Flash (a technology that Apple steadfastly refuses to support on the iPad), but it wasn’t enough.  Faced with a TouchPad priced at the same level as an iPad or Android device, customers grabbed the Android or iPad.  A big reason for this was a lack of apps (although an emulator does allow the TouchPad to run many apps written for WebOS based phones).  While the iPad and Android devices might not have had a huge assortment of apps at launch, they do now.  HP was bringing an entry-level assortment of apps to the table while joining the race halfway through.

On August 18 – a mere 49 days after launch – HP announced that they would produce no more WebOS devices (although they will continues to develop the actual OS until they figure out what to do with it).

The next day, clearance prices were announced.  $99 for the 16 GB model and $149 for the 32 GB model.  People gasped – and raced to buy one.  What followed ended up being a huge debacle, with angry cutomers, crashed web sites, and orders cancelled hours or days after being made.  What went wrong:

What HP did wrong 

I really don’t understand HP’s logic.  Did they really underestimate the difficulty of competing with Apple and Google?  If so, that’s a pretty colossal failure.

Throwing in the towel after seven weeks on the market seems to suggest a minimal commitment to the effort.  Perhaps they could have included coupons good for $100 worth of TouchPad accessories from the HP store?  A lot of accessories are very high margin, so this would have looked great to customers without costing HP much.  Or perhaps they could have given new buyers a $100 credit toward the purchase of new apps.  Perhaps even a big discount on a wireless HP printer to use with the TouchPad (forcing people to buy ink cartridges – a nice revenue stream).  I came up with those three ideas while writing this paragraph – I’m sure HP’s marketing department could have come up with many more.

It seemed pretty obvious at the time of the price cut that they could have probably clearanced the devices at $200 and still sold all of them.  When  you drop down below $100, the device becomes a reasonable subsitute for a lot of other tech items.  Not only is it a cheap substitute for a laptop, but also a possible replacement for the 9.7″ Kindle DX ($379) at less the the price of the cheapest Kindle ($114).  Heck, you could even use it in place of a 10″ digital picture frame when not using the other features.  You essentially have a device with Swiss army knife type of flexibility, and it’s undercutting the single purposes devices that it could replace.

What the merchants did wrong

A lot of people placed orders, received confirmations, and they received a cancellation notice much later.  In my case, I received a cancellation order this morning, more than two full days after placing the order.  Needless to say, a lot of people were angry about this.  I wasn’t particulalry upset, because this seem to be a likely scenario based on what I was hearing from other people.

I’m not really sure what the issue was here.  Some sort of a failure regarding an inventory system, no doubt.  Barnes and Noble’s web site was perhaps in the brightest spotlight.  I saw a comment that Barnes and Noble’s inventory system is set up to handle books, which can always be re-ordered from the manufacturer.  That’s fine – as long as you only intend to sell books.  If you’re planning to sell items that can be discontinued, your system has to have a way to realize that zero stock means that you are completely out.  Sometimes zero means zero.

And maybe toss the affected customers a small gift – a $10 gift card, perhaps – for the inconvenience. 

What the customers did wrong

OK, I understand that you’re angry about stores being out of stock and orders being canceled, but tone down the venom just a wee bit.  It the case of brick and mortar stores, what exactly could you expect?  These stores had no way of know that there would be a mad rush to buy the TouchPads.  It’s not as if this was a planned promotion and the stores were able to stock up beforehand.  Some employees were probably very surprised to see Black Friday crowds in August.

I agree that the online merchants goofed up big time – but some of the rhetoric is out of place.

Then there’s the guy on eBay selling information.  For $99 he’d tell you where you could buy a TouchPad for $130.  No refunds if the information was out of date.  It seems fairly obvious that this was an attempt to trick people into thinking he was selling a $99 TouchPad.  The text of the listing clearly says what he’s selling, but a lot of people likely just saw “TouchPad – $99”.

Then, of course, the people re-selling for a huge profit.  The $99 item could be found online for $200, $300, $400, $500 – and in the case of one web site, $700.  I know people caught caught up in TouchPad mania, but these were devices that wouldn’t sell for $499 – now they are listed at $700?

What’s next?

HP has a waiting list, and you can sign up to be notified when more TouchPads are available.  It actually makes sense for HP to sell as many as possible through it’s site instead of other merchants, since this would keep 100% of the revenue in-house.  Will they?  I don’t know.  How many more devices will be available?  Again, no idea.

Where do we go from here?  Suddenly, HP has an installed base of excited tablet customer.  Do they retract their withdrawal from the market?  The 16 GB touchpad has a materials cost of around $300, so the $99 price point is not sustainable long term without some other sort of revenue stream.  Could HP siphon off enough revenue from a data plan and app store to make up the difference?  Could they save a few bucks by using cheaper parts?  They’d have to position themselves as a cheaper alternative to the iPad and Android devices – but maybe there’s a spot in the market for that.

Another point is that not only does HP have a lot of tablet customers, but they have a unique blend of customers.  They not only have the tech crowd, but also a big chunk of the general population who hadn’t previously considered a tablet.  I work in IT, but really hadn’t considered a tablet.  At $500, it’s a really expensive toy.  At $99, it’s not hard to justify the cost.  We don’t own a laptop, so it would have been convenient to connect a TouchPad to a hotel WiFi network while traveling.

Then, of course, WebOS itself.  Will HP find a way to license it?  Will they wring out a few dollars and sell it outright (I’ll bid $99)?  Or will they throw it over the wall to the open source community?  Making it open source is probably the best way to ensure that it will actually survive long term – open source labor (volunteers) is very cheap …

What are your thoughts regarding the TouchPad soap opera?

Photo credit: 401k

There is no debate that the rich pay a disproportionate amount of income taxes in the United States. Whether this is fair or not is a political discussion that I won’t address in this article. I’m more concerned about the reliability of statistics that are floating around.

You’ve probably heard that the top 20% of earners pay 80% the taxes and that the rich pay half the taxes. Are these comments true?  What percentage of taxes do the rich pay?

To answer this question, let’s to go the authority on tax statistics – the Internal Revenue Service. The data used in this article comes straight from the IRS web site.

Before we get started, I’d like to make a few points:

• These statistics are based on returns, rather than people. The lower levels of income tend to have fewer people represented by a return (single people are over-represented in these levels). This means that you can’t say that 8274 EARNERS had an AGI of more than $10 million or more. This could be a dual income household where each spouse earns $5 million.
• Data is from tax year 2009. The is the most recent data available at the time this article was written.
• I’m not exactly sure what to make of the returns with no AGI. I have included this data for the sake of completeness, but this group likely includes a hodgepodge of exception statuses and the stats for this group might not make much sense. Caveat emptor!

Let’s take a look at the first table. This lists the percentage of returns for each income level, as well as the group’s percentage of the nation’s aggregate AGI ($7.6 trillion) and individual income taxes paid ($865 billion). Dollar amounts are in thousands. What data can we glean?

• The top 20.57% of returns – those with AGI of $75,000 or more – earn 62.37% of the nation’s AGI and pay 83.96% of the taxes. So the much quoted stat about the top 20% paying 80% of taxes is true (assuming it means 20% of returns).
• What about the rich paying half the taxes? This depends on your definition of “rich”, but returns with more than $200,000 in AGI represent 2.79% of all returns, earn 25.76% of AGI, and pay 50.14% of taxes.
• Returns claiming AGI of more than one million dollars represented 0.17% of all returns, but paid 20.49% of all taxes.

Here’s the data:

OK, but what rate does everyone pay? In the next table, I’ve simply divided the taxes paid by the AGI to determine the effective tax rate.

• Returns with an AGI of $10 million or more have an effective rate significantly lower than several other income levels. Why? Capital gains. Note that this income level doesn’t have an upper bound, and the more extreme outliers are generally going to be the result of capital gains. It’s much more difficult to earn $1 billion in wages than $1 billion in capital gains (I’m speaking in relative terms; both are extremely difficult to do).
• There’s a noticeable jump between the 100-200K group and the 200-500K group. Not only are there some rate increases in these levels, but you will also see the effect of phase-outs of certain itemized deductions.

Here’s the data:

As a whole, the aggregate effective tax rate is 11.35%. For each $100 of AGI, the government will collect $11.35 in taxes. The 100-200K group is basically right at this level, but the other income levels drift far away from this baseline. What percent of the “expected” taxes are paid at each income level (based on the expectation of $11.35 in taxes paid on each $100 of AGI).

I’ll let you peruse this data without any observations, other than pointing out that 100% would be equal to the expected 11.35% effective rate.

Once again, Carlos Zambrano is persona non grata in the Cubs clubhouse.  He was suspended for 30 days without pay following his most recent blowup.  After giving up five home runs against the Atlanta Braves, he began using Atlanta icon Chipper Jones as target practice before getting ejected from the game.  Mind you, Jones wasn’t even one of the guys who hit a homer.

Cubs GM Jim Hendry took the somewhat unusual step of apologizing to Jones (via Braves GM Frank Wren) for the incident.

This isn’t the first blowup for Zambrano.  He has a long history of failing to control his temper.  The problem with baseball’s guaranteed contracts is that it’s very difficult for a team to part ways with a problem player.  If the Cubs were to release Zambrano, they’d still be on the hook for his contract of $18 million+ next year.

Zambrano’s statistics put him in the “potential hall of famer” category.  If he pitches until he is 40, he could surpass 250 career wins and even make a run at 300.  However, he needs to stay focused and remain on the field for this to happen.  I sincerely hope Zambrano can put his anger issues behind him.  He’s making $18 million per year – hire a personal psychiatrist to travel with him during the season.

Sad day for the Huskers

Last night was the deadline to sign baseball draftees.  The future of Nebraska football took a hit when multi-sport star Bubba Starling signed with the Kansas City Royals, dashing the dreams of Husker fans who envisioned him behind center for the Nebraska football team.  Starling, the 5th overall pick in the draft, used his status as a football player as leverage in negotiations and was able to secure a $7.5 million signing bonus.  I have suggested the nickname of “Clarice” for the newest member of the Royal family.

The Pirates signed top overall pick Gerrit Cole to an $8 million bonus.  Interestingly, Cole was drafted in the first round by the Yankees in 2008, but failed to come to terms with the team and elected to go to college instead.  Imagine that – the Yankees losing a player to the Pirates because they wouldn’t pay the money.

Thome Hits #600

Jim Thome of the Twins reached the 600 home run plateau last night.  There wasn’t much publicity leading up to the event, other than a handful of articles pointing out that there wasn’t much publicity leading up to the event.  Thome is generally regarded as one on the nicest guys in baseball, and this might be working against him.  You never read news stories about him criticizing teammates or getting into a fight at a strip club.  He just goes to work and does his job every day.  Congratulations to the most low-key future Hall of Famer you’re likely to encounter.

49ers Add Seasoning With ‘Pepper?

The 49ers worked out quarterback Duante Culpepper on Monday, with an eye toward possibly adding him to the roster.  I was a fan of Culpepper when he was leading the high octane Vikings offense, and I still like the guy.  I think it would be smart for the 49ers to add Culpepper to their group of quarterbacks.  It’s a low risk, high reward situations.  Hoping for a triumphant return for Duante!