What Will Happen On Election Day

October 27, 2010

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Although I’m not much of a rah-rah political person, I do enjoy following things from an analytical viewpoint.  Here are my thoughts on what will happen on election day and beyond.

Christine O’Donnell will lose the race for the Senate in Delaware and return to her coven.  (That’s a joke – I don’t really think she is a witch).  There is some speculation that she may also cost the GOP the Pennsylvania race.  The logic is that O’Donnell has been quite visible in the Philadelphia market (grab a map, for those who aren’t familiar with the area) and that Democrats may be playing a winning game by saying that Pat Toomey is another Tea Party candidate … with the implied message that Toomey = O’Donnell.  It’s possible that this is not the reason that Joe Sestak has been making up substantial ground … Evan, any thoughts?

Marco Rubio leads a three way race in the Florida Senate race.  Former governor Charlie Crist is in the race as an independent.  You’d think Crist would be in a unique position to paint his opponents (Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek) as being the anti-Crist  …

Senate Majority leader Harry Reid continues his battle royale with Sharron Angle.  The compact nature of Nevada’s media market make it fairly inexpensive to run ads that reach a high percentage of constituents.  A loss by Reid would force the Democrats to choose a new leader.

In Alaska, incumbent Lisa Murkowski (a Republican) is running as an independent and has been polling roughly even with GOP candidate  Joe Miller (with both candidates comfortable ahead of Democrat Scott McAdams).  With Alaska lagging several hours behind Iowa,  I’ll be going to bed about the time the polls close up north.  At some point in the evening, the number of write-in votes that were cast (i.e. that someone marked the circle for write-in) will be known … but not who they were cast for.  If the write-in totals are high enough to put the winner in doubt, then the write-in votes will be tallied – and wrangled over in court.  The Democrats will probably laugh all the way to the bank, as they see Republicans spend millions of dollars deciding which conservative should represent Alaska.

In South Carolina, Republican Jim DeMint will score a decisive win over Democrate Alvin Greene.  Greene scored a stunning victory in the Democratic primary, despite having done negligible campaigning – leading to some accusations of fraud.  Greene was later indicted on a felony obscenity charge.  The real question to me – why didn’t another Democrat jump into the race and make it a three way contest?  As it stands, Greene is getting roughly 20% support in the polls.

In the governor’s races, Jerry Brown is starting to distance himself from former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who has spent around $150 million (wow!) of her own money into her campaign.  Whitman’s campaign has been sidetracked by the revelation that she once employed an illegal alien as a made (and the allegations that the Whitman family were aware of this and did nothing). 

In Illinois, my former landlord (Bill Brady) is running a close race with incumbent Pat Quinn, who got his gig when Blago was forced out in the midst of a corruption scandal.  I don’t know Brady personally. but we had (legal) free cable when his management company got the rent checks, and had to pay for cable when another company replaced them.  Sure, it was only $17 (around 2000) and only a couple dozen channels, but nonetheless was a pretty sweet deal.

What do I see happening on the grand scale?  I see the GOP taking back the House and the Democrats probably retaining  slim majority in the Senate – quite possibly 51-49.  I also see the end of Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s tenure on the Supreme Court.  Ginsburg doesn’t want to be replaced by a conservative, and will likely retire while Obama is still choosing justices rather than risk dying in office and having President Palin choose her replacement.  What’s one likely characteristic of the Justice that will replace Ginsburg?  Youth.

Speaking of Ginsburg … time for a bit of trivia. Whom did she replace on the Supreme Court?  Byron “Whizzer” White, the former NFL star.  White took the term student-athlete to the highest level – leading the NFL in rushing in 1938 and 1940 being awarded two bronze stars for his service in World War II – and then embarking upon a legal career which took him to the peak of his profession.  You may agree or disagree with his opinions, but it’s hard to argue that he didn’t live an amazing life.  Whizzer died in 2002 at the age of 84.

Christine O’Donnell – Witch Of The East?

September 23, 2010

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Don’t all teenage dates end on top of satanic altars? I guess the new darling of the Tea Party and Republican Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell would like everyone to believe that. The comment comes from a past clip of one of her many appearances on the show Politically Incorrect that was brought to light once again by its host Bill Maher on his new show Real Time (see the clip as part of her Greatest Hits on Youtube). The clip has her stating that she once dabbled in witchcraft and one of her first dates ended up on a satanic alter with blood dripping from it. I guess her new campaign slogan should be YES WICCAN!!!

Now while like most things O’Donnell says or has said, the clip is amusing but this one in particular won’t have much of a factor on her losing the Senate race in Delaware. That’s because her tea party crowd just loves them story of redemption. Of how she could overcome her ways of witchcraft and being at the altars of the evil Obama and come to a better life today of living of others campaign contributions.

This is the real thing about the Tea Party’s new love interest. It is truly amazing to me how a crowd so hell-bent on how government should be not allowed to waste their money, yet they have no qualms about letting their political prostitute O’Donnell use their money any way she desires. Yes I called O’Donnell a political prostitute, that is what she is. She does not have a job and lives off money given to her for running for political office. So I hope the tea party loves their position as the political Johns right now.

This past Sunday O’Donnell was to appear on a couple of the Sunday news shows, but quickly cancelled those appearances after Maher released his clip adn promise that he hd many more to release. Granted she said that she was overworked and needed to relax and get away for the weekend. We have to believe her right? After all, she did once say that she would not have even lied to Hitler to save Anne Frank. Unfortunately teabaggers she isn’t that honest either. She lies as much as Sister Sarah, just she is not as crafty about it. She quickly went into redirections of her motive throughout the weekend ending up with she overbooked events and Delaware events and voters should be the focus. Good for her, if that was the actual motive, but it was not as Delaware voters are her main concern.

I think the last stat I saw on the issue was that over 80% of O’Donnell’s contributions this cycle were from outside of Delaware. So if Delaware needs to be the focus maybe she should return some of that money she was so adamantly trying to get at just last week. On Hannity last night O’Donnell professed she will do no more national interviews because Delaware needed to be the focus. However while it would be the good reason, it is not her real reason, she just doesn’t want to have any more missteps on her way to losing the Senate race than she will have anyways from her own past comments.

I say on her way to losing the race because that IS going to be the endgame of this race in my opinion. A seat that was once thought to go to the dark side is now a pretty safe seat to hold. Even polls so right biased seem to think so. The Fox News battleground poll had the Democrat Chris Coons up 54% to 39% over O’Donnell. On an amusing note though in the same polling if Mike Castle would be the nominee he would be trouncing Coons 48% to 33%. Now since I usually don’t believe anything that comes from Faux News alone, another usually right biased poll Rasmussen has Coons up 53% to 42%. So way to stick it to the establishment teabaggers, by making an obvious pickup into a safe seat for the opposition instead.

Now the only poll that matters is the one on election day, but the result will be no different than the pst two times she has run before, especially now that everyone is vividly aware o how much of a nut she is. So I sit here waiting with bated breath at the next piece news to come out from O’Donnell whether a current misstep or a past one. The are all amusing to me. Until that time though I will protect myself from the invasion of mice-human hybrids and continue to be master of my own domain.