GOP Endgame

April 6, 2012

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Governor Mitt Romney of MA

Romney is the inevitable GOP nominee

As we get into April and many primaries become winner take all, it’s going to be easier for Mitt Romney to put distance between himself and Rick Santorum.  The carrot for Santorum is the fact that the month of May could hold some big wins for him – including Texas – but he might be in too big of a hole by them.  Currently, Romney leads 655 to 278.  He’s expected to win decisively in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island. 

There’s also the key battle in the Keystone State on the 24th.  If Romney wins Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania, it’s going to be hard to hold out much hope for Santorum.  Honestly, at this point, it’s a question of whether Romney can get to 1144 delegates.  Santorum doesn’t really have a shot at 1144, but if Romney can’t reach the number, a brokered convention could decide the nomination – incentive for Romney to keep the pedal to the metal.

Is Santorum focusing more on 2016 than 2012 at this point?  That’s a definite possibility.  His harsh anti-Romney rhetoric scores points with his own fans, but comments such as the one comparing Romney to Obama can only serve to hurt Romney in the general election.  A candidate in a primary really has two goals.  The first goal is to ensure that their party wins in the general election.  The second goal – a lesser goal, in my mind – is to get themselves elected to be the standard bearer for the party.  Is Rick Santorum handing votes to Barack Obama every day that he stays in the Republican race?  Probably.

The other candidates in the GOP field have really fallen to the side and at this point are really just serving as a spoiler for Santorum.

Billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who has funneled millions of dollars into the Gingrich campaign through Gingrich’s SuperPAC, is putting his checkbook back in his pocket.  At some point, you stop throwing good money after bad.  With his campaign in the red, Gingrich has begun charging $50 per pose for photo ops with supporters.  Yes, $50 for a photo with a guy who finished third in the 2012 Republican primary.  I think Gingrich has the whole concept of “buying votes” a bit backward. 

Is Ron Paul being cheated?

And then there’s Ron Paul.  Paul’s campaign really sheds light on the fact that there are two dimensions to a candidate’s popularity.  The first is the size of the following, and the second is the intensity of their support for the candidate.  Paul is off the charts in terms of average intensity.  The only problem is that all votes count the same – a fervent supporter’s vote doesn’t count any more than a tepid supporters.  A vote is a vote.

Rumors of a third party run are swirling again, but I really don’t see how this is a viable option.  How, exactly, would Paul get enough votes to be viable in the general election?  He’s running fourth in the Republican field, and it’s not likely that he would peel off many liberal votes from the Obama camp.

I’ve also seen some folks in the tinfoil hat brigade allege vote fixing in the primary, pointing to “huge” Ron Paul crowds and saying this with such huge crowds, his vote counts should be higher than the official tallies – so someone must be fixing the numbers.

Recent “evidence” of this is a recent Paul rally in Los Angeles.  His supporters show images of a packed house and allege that there were 10,000 in attendance.  Well, the facility in question (UCLA’s tennis center) has a max capacity of 6,000.  Even if the 10,000 number is accurate, look at this number in context.  The LA metro area has about 12.8 million people.  That would mean that one out of every 1280 people in the LA metro showed up to the event.

Fervent supporters, Paul has.  He just doesn’t have enough of the “grunt” variety who quietly cast votes.

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Message to Ron Paul Fans: Grow Up

December 31, 2011

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Commentary- Do you see that Paul supporters? Commentary. That means it is Commentary. NOT a news article. It’s like the Opinion section of the paper, not the front page. Then again, that doesn’t matter to Ron Paul supporters. If it isn’t something that praises St. Ron Paul, it’s trash. It’s stupid. It’s someone who should “kill themselves”.

Personal attacks by Ron Paul fans

Yes. In the comments in the last article I wrote, commentators told me everything from me needing to f-word myself to killing myself…and everything in between, including having my tubes tied so I didn’t have any more children. Nice. Mature.

I thought I was being a little rough when I referred to Ron Paul supporters as being “rabid”. They proved to me I was right on. Thanks for proving me right.

I believe in the 11th Commandment. “Thou shall not speak ill of fellow Republicans.” But I can still talk about Ron Paul. Because he’s not a Republican. He’s so far right, he’s wrong. He’s even been described as “left of Obama” by some of my friends who are Democrats.

The aforementioned article has almost 300 more COMMENTS than WORDS in the article. Looks like I hit a nerve. You’d think I said that Dr. Paul eats small kittens for breakfast…and I’m surprised I haven’t been accused of it.

I’m amused that the commentators took the time to check out my background. Yes, I do volunteer for a Paranormal Group. I think it is fun and interesting. I have also served as Co-Chair of the Polk County (Des Moines, Iowa) Republican Party, and like almost everyone else in Des Moines, I have worked for a large corporation (we have many in the area, Principal, Wells Fargo, Nationwide, ING). But I think that just makes my background diverse.

My husband served in the Iraq war, and after finding out about it, a Ron Paul supporter told me that I didn’t serve, only my husband did. ANYONE who is a spouse of a soldier also serves. Whomever says that the wife of a soldier doesn’t serve, has never been a soldier, or a wife of one. The same Paul supporter responded with, “if you somehow died while he was overseas, would you get a military burial?” Because only a military burial equates to serving? Some soldiers choose not to have a military burial. Moron.

As far as the articles I’ve written, they include more than just the barn and crayon stains. You can read about Why I support Santorum, Why I like him for the caucus, Iowa GOP Voter’s reaction to the national security debate…and more. If you did as much research into my articles as you did my personal background, you would have found them.

My concerns with Paul’s positions

Even though this is an opinion piece, the Ron Paul supporters seem to feel the need for me to back up my opinion with facts. Here’s why Ron Paul is dangerous, again, in MY opinion.

  1. Ron Paul’s foreign policy is an epic fail. Example? Not taking Iran seriously. Dr. Paul’s lack of seriousness toward Iran shows a fundamental misunderstanding of international security. Iran is a country that doesn’t lend itself toward the kind of MAD balance of terror that gave balance in the Cold War. Iran, instead, upon getting nukes would be in a use’em or lose’em scenario. I can go through the game theory in more detail, but suffice it to say we either intervene in the Mid-East to stop Iran getting nukes, or you flip a coin to figure out if you have a major regional war in the Mid-East, potentially involving nukes.
  2. Eliminating the Department of Energy. I don’t know if Dr. Paul knows, but the DOE runs our nuclear program (there’s a little facility out at Los Alamos he may want to familiarize himself with.) Sure, Solyndra is a scandal that is terribly embarrassing to the Democrats, but let’s not toss the baby out with the bathwater here.
  3. Democrats may disagree with Republicans on appropriate military policy, but we all should honor our veterans. The way leftists treated vets post Vietnam is disgusting, and has no place in our political life. Soldiers and their families have a tough enough time without some idiot (or like I was subjected to, a Ron Paul supporter) undermining their sacrifice.

So there you go, Ron Paul supporters. Three talking points. As you know, I’m more than willing to have an open, yet mature dialogue. If you tell me to “kill myself”, it’s not going to happen. If you “plan to have your sister come and pound me in the ground”, it’s not going to happen. Maybe I’m the next Ann Coulter. And yes, I consider that a compliment.