GOP Endgame

April 6, 2012

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Governor Mitt Romney of MA

Romney is the inevitable GOP nominee

As we get into April and many primaries become winner take all, it’s going to be easier for Mitt Romney to put distance between himself and Rick Santorum.  The carrot for Santorum is the fact that the month of May could hold some big wins for him – including Texas – but he might be in too big of a hole by them.  Currently, Romney leads 655 to 278.  He’s expected to win decisively in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island. 

There’s also the key battle in the Keystone State on the 24th.  If Romney wins Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania, it’s going to be hard to hold out much hope for Santorum.  Honestly, at this point, it’s a question of whether Romney can get to 1144 delegates.  Santorum doesn’t really have a shot at 1144, but if Romney can’t reach the number, a brokered convention could decide the nomination – incentive for Romney to keep the pedal to the metal.

Is Santorum focusing more on 2016 than 2012 at this point?  That’s a definite possibility.  His harsh anti-Romney rhetoric scores points with his own fans, but comments such as the one comparing Romney to Obama can only serve to hurt Romney in the general election.  A candidate in a primary really has two goals.  The first goal is to ensure that their party wins in the general election.  The second goal – a lesser goal, in my mind – is to get themselves elected to be the standard bearer for the party.  Is Rick Santorum handing votes to Barack Obama every day that he stays in the Republican race?  Probably.

The other candidates in the GOP field have really fallen to the side and at this point are really just serving as a spoiler for Santorum.

Billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who has funneled millions of dollars into the Gingrich campaign through Gingrich’s SuperPAC, is putting his checkbook back in his pocket.  At some point, you stop throwing good money after bad.  With his campaign in the red, Gingrich has begun charging $50 per pose for photo ops with supporters.  Yes, $50 for a photo with a guy who finished third in the 2012 Republican primary.  I think Gingrich has the whole concept of “buying votes” a bit backward. 

Is Ron Paul being cheated?

And then there’s Ron Paul.  Paul’s campaign really sheds light on the fact that there are two dimensions to a candidate’s popularity.  The first is the size of the following, and the second is the intensity of their support for the candidate.  Paul is off the charts in terms of average intensity.  The only problem is that all votes count the same – a fervent supporter’s vote doesn’t count any more than a tepid supporters.  A vote is a vote.

Rumors of a third party run are swirling again, but I really don’t see how this is a viable option.  How, exactly, would Paul get enough votes to be viable in the general election?  He’s running fourth in the Republican field, and it’s not likely that he would peel off many liberal votes from the Obama camp.

I’ve also seen some folks in the tinfoil hat brigade allege vote fixing in the primary, pointing to “huge” Ron Paul crowds and saying this with such huge crowds, his vote counts should be higher than the official tallies – so someone must be fixing the numbers.

Recent “evidence” of this is a recent Paul rally in Los Angeles.  His supporters show images of a packed house and allege that there were 10,000 in attendance.  Well, the facility in question (UCLA’s tennis center) has a max capacity of 6,000.  Even if the 10,000 number is accurate, look at this number in context.  The LA metro area has about 12.8 million people.  That would mean that one out of every 1280 people in the LA metro showed up to the event.

Fervent supporters, Paul has.  He just doesn’t have enough of the “grunt” variety who quietly cast votes.

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The Death of Andrew Breitbart and Other News

March 9, 2012

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Media personality Andrew Breitbart gives a spe...

Who Killed Breitbart?  His Heart.

It’s been a week since conservative leader Andrew Breitbart died.  At the time, I asked a friend of mine how long it would be before conspiracy theories started circulating about his death.  It took only a few days before people were saying that the Obama administration had Breitbart whacked.  While it’s fun to spin the theories, sometimes 43 year old men simply die.  My brother was only a bit older when he died due to heart issues.  It happens.

Now, if Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly both turn up dead in the next week, then I’ll agree that we should be taking a long hard look at this.  But until that happens, I’d suggest that Breitbart’s fans celebrate his life rather than trying to indict the president for murder.

The Billionaires Club

Mitt Romney picked up six wins on Super Tuesday, Rick Santorum picked up three, and Newt Gingrich won Georgia (the state he represented in congress).  It’s interesting to note that Santorum and Gingrich each have their own person billionaire funneling tons of money to them via SuperPACs.  This is completely legal.  However, the existence of the SuperPACs means that both can stay in the race even if they aren’t receiving decent fundraising support from anyone else.  In previous years, lack of funding likely would have pushed one of them out of the race by now, leaving the other to go head to head with Mitt Romney.  Head to head with Romney, either of them would have a chance.  But as it stands, they are splitting the non-Romney vote and are coming up short.  Romney can get a plurality in a three candidate race, but would likely have problems gaining a majority in a two candidate race.

Peyton Manning

After 14 years in Indianapolis, the Colts cut Peyton Manning.  The Colts are catching a lot of flak for this move, with many saying that they haven’t been loyal to the player who had built the franchise.

It’s true that Peyton Manning took over a team that sucked and turned it into a great team – largely due to the fact that he’s a stud quarterback.

But bear in mind that the Colts paid Peyton $26.4 million last year – when he didn’t play a down.  He was due to get a $28 million roster bonus if he wasn’t cut.  This isn’t some sort of pro-rated amount that would allow the Colts to wait around a month or two to see how Manning was doing – it was $28 million all at once.  If Manning didn’t play in 2012, this would have meant the Colts has paid $54.4 million for absolutely no on-field production.  Even if money wasn’t an issue, NFL teams are bound by a salary cap, and that sort of a cap hit would make it very hard to maintain a successful team.

If I were Irsay, I’d try to sign Manning to a one year deal with a low base salary and hefty incentives.  If he plays, he makes decent money.  If he doesn’t, then the cost is minimal.

Are the Colts right to go after Andrew Luck in the draft?  Certainly.  Even if Manning were to play this year, at some point soon he’ll be at the end of his career.  There’s no guarantee that the Colts will be able to get a player of Luck’s caliber in a later draft (in fact, it’s very unlikely, as a healthy Manning means a better team and a worse draft pick).  You need to take the bird in the hand.  I also tend to be a fan of having a young QB carry a clipboard for a year or two,  While a handful of recent QB have had success being thrown into the fire, historically, this has burned a lot of teams.

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Rick Santorum Wins Iowa Caucuses

January 19, 2012

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Hey dedicated Soapboxer readers! Miss me? I know you’re checking the website to see what I have to say about all of the developments in the ever-changing GOP race. Right?

I know it’s not nice to brag, but I totally called it. I should have bought a Powerball ticket on caucus day. I wrote an article for Yahoo! News  on caucus morning with my predictions. Granted it’s taken a few weeks for people to realize I was right, but such is my life. I’m used to it. When I’m right, I’m not humble. Especially when people slammed me for weeks saying that Santorum “had no chance” or “should have dropped out a while ago”. I told a friend that he’d be “eating his words” and he replied “doubt it”. Fork or spoon, buddy. Fork or spoon.

[Editor’s note: this is breaking news this morning.  The official tally gives Santorum the win by 34 votes.]

If you read the article, I was not only correct on the winner of the caucus but I called it ALL THE WAY DOWN THE LINE. Yeah. I’m awesome. Take that Miss Cleo. I also predicted Newt’s ex-wife issues, Romney’s win in New Hampshire and Huntsman’s mistake. Let’s take a look at that fun gaffe!

Where Jon Huntsman Went Wrong (Or Don’t Diss Iowa, Stupid)

The headline sums it up pretty well. If you want to be President of the United States, that means President of ALL of the United States, not just the East Coast. When you diss Iowa, you diss the whole midwest. And if you have a map (and are not Miss America), you’d know that’s a lot of the Country. As soon as he made his corn-Presidents comment, it was game over for Huntsman.

Newt’s Ex-Wife Problem

In my article regarding finishes in the Iowa Caucus, I stated that

Newt Gingrich isn’t conservative enough for Iowans, thus giving him a fourth-place finish. He’s got too many skeletons (and ex-wives) in the closet. He’s a brilliant and smart man, but Iowans believe if you can’t keep an oath to your spouse, what makes us believe you’ll keep an oath to the voters.

I had my husband in tears (from laughter) the other night. I compared Newt’s marital record to someone who is a habitual leaser of cars. You’ve got to trade up to the newer, younger, prettier model every few years…but you’ve got to take it for a test drive first. Am I wrong? I didn’t think so. It should be interesting to see (if the interview does air) what his ex-wife has to say. Forget the Kardashians, Newt should have a reality show titled, “Gettin Down with the Gingriches”. I’d watch it.

Perry is Dropping Out

I’m kind of sad to hear this news. It makes sense, he’s at the bottom of the pack, polling horribly and not getting endorsements. I thought he was a good enough guy, he was just horrible in debates. I think everyone can recall the “Ummm” heard round the world. Granted, W wasn’t the best debater either, but hey, I love me some W. Maybe it’s the accent or the Cowboy I like. Maybe Paula Cole was right, “Where have all the Cowboys gone?” Either way, this one is going back to Texas. Hopefully he’s “saved a pretzel for the gas jets.”

What’s going to happen after South Carolina? Who knows. Maybe I’ll make a prediction soon. I just hope whomever is the GOP candidate they can take out Obama. Keep the goal in mind, fellow Conservatives. OMG. Obama Must Go.

I Can’t Support Newt Gingrich

May 19, 2011

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I Just Can’t Do It

Sorry Nike, but I just can’t do it. Support Gingrich that is. Can I support Pawlenty? Sure. Can I support Palin? Yes. Can I even support Herman Cain? Why not? But Gingrich? No.

Being smarter than my age, in 7th grade we had a science project where we fed pop and junk food to newts. My newt was the control newt and he survived the experiment. So at the end of the project (against my mother’s wishes) I got to take him home. And being more in the news loop than your typical 7th grade girl, I had named him Mr. Gingrich. Yes, without even knowing it, I was a political nerd. At the ripe young age of 12.

I loved Mr. Gingrich (the newt). I had to put a piece of plastic wrap over the top of the fishbowl with a rubber band holding it on (with holes poked in the top) after Mr. Gingrich figured out how to crawl out of the bowl. One day I heard my mom screaming bloody murder and she was on a chair in the kitchen with a tiny little newt crawling on the floor.

I was a newt hunter at the age of 12. Now I’m a RINO hunter. For those of you who don’t know, RINO stands for Republican In Name Only.

Gingrich has been in the race for one week and he’s already had to apologize to someone. Not the best start. His website says, “Together we will Win The Future.” I think Obama tried to use that phrase. And I chuckle. Together we will WTF. I’m tuned in enough to social media to know what that means. Any time someone uses that it makes me SMH. Look it up.

Being a 30 something female in the Republican party, I’m trying to fight the stereotype. What do people think of when they say Republican? Old white males with white hair. And that describes Newt to a T. Let’s get away from the stereotype.

Not to mention the revolving charge account that he and the Mrs. had at Tiffany’s. I like bling and sparkly things as much as the next girl. But the liability was reported in the range of $250,001 to $500,000. Fiscal Conservative? People are usually more conservative with their OWN money. If he spends his own cash like this, how will he spend our tax dollars? Once a Grassley staffer, always a Grassley staffer I guess. I prefer my fiscal Conservatives to be Grassley-esque.

Now, if he does end up becoming the 2012 GOP candidate, I will vote for him, reluctantly. Obama’s got to go. But with the field being as saturated with “better” Conservatives, I don’t see Newt getting the nomination.

I just need a good fiscal Conservative who is pro-life, pro-family, pro-military, pro-business, small Government and says what he/she means. Is that too much to ask?