Ubaldo Jimenez Supended For Throwing At Tulowitzki

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DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 21: Ubaldo Jimenez #30 of...

Take a deep breath and relax.

SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 6: Troy Tulowitzki #2 of ...

And in this corner, at 6'3" and 215 pounds ...

A lazy day of spring training was livened up a bit when Ubaldo Jimenez of the Indians intentionally threw at Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, clearing the benches and getting himself a five game suspension.

There has been a lot of tension between Jimenez and the Rockies this season.  The beef that Jimenez seems to have with the team is that Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez signed big extensions following the 2010 season, while the team made no move to extend Jimenez.  Why didn’t the Rockies offer Jimenez an extension?  Because they already had him under team control through 2014.

At the time he signed the deal (January 2009), these were Ubaldo’s thoughts on the subject:

That means a lot, that they’ve put a lot of trust in me, and I’m not going to let them down.

Sounds like he was pretty happy with the deal at the time, right?  Sure, he’d had a monster season in 2010 (fueled by a 15-1 start, which included a no-hitter) and perhaps rightly felt that he had outperformed the contract, but the Rockies had taken a risk by signing him to the deal before he had really proven much at the major league level.  At the time of the deal, Jimenez had a career record of 16-16 and a career ERA of 4.06.

Additionally, pitchers are more injury prone than position players, and pitchers for the Rockies are going to throw more pitches per inning than pitchers in other parks, because the park is very hitter friendly (and hits extend innings).  Considering that baseball contracts, unlike contracts in other sports, are guaranteed money, it’s risky to extend a pitcher too many years into the future, especially when he’s still under contract for several years.

Is he upset about being traded?  Seriously, how could the Rockies turn down a deal that included Drew Pomeranz and other pieces.  Pomeranz has the upside of Jimenez and is younger (cheaper).  The small market Rockies are often looking for cost efficiencies.

I like Ubaldo, but he really needs to put this in the past and move forward.

More big contracts

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Matt Cai...

Actually, the Giants are paying for Matt Cain's arm.

LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 14:  Closer Francisco C...

Nah, man. I can pick up the tab for dinner. No worries, mate.

Spring training has served as a late Christmas for a some players.  Just yesterday, teams spent $350 million on players, with the Giants locking up pitcher Matt Cain for six years at a cost of $127.5 million and the Reds extended first baseman Joey Votto through the 2023 season with a ten year deal worth $225 million.  Cain’s deal has a vesting option (which turns into a team option if it doesn’t vest) that could push the deal to $141.5 million over seven years.

I’d like to point out the fact that Matt Cain’s career record is 69-73, and he has never won more than 13 games in a season.  I’d also like to point out the fact that win/loss record is a horrible stat to use when judging pitchers, and applaud the Giants for completely ignoring it in this case.  In 2007, for example, Cain went 7-16 for the Giants … but had a quite good 3.65 ERA and hit 200 innings – as a 22 year old.

Votto’s the third first basemen to notch a $200 million deal in recent months, following in the footsteps of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.  Unlike Pujols and Fielder, Votto opted to remain with the team that drafted him.  Votto still has two years left on his current deal ($9 million this year and $17 million in 2013), so the new deals kick in for the 2014 season.  He’ll be 40 years old at the end of the contract.

I think Votto’s a relatively safe risk, as first baseman are less prone to injury than other position players (they don’t run long distances to field balls, nor are they often involved in collisions with baserunners).  However, I think it would make some sense to add easily-reached vesting options to protect against severely diminished skills or career-ending injuries (although teams often have disability insurance for injuries).  Set it up so that the option vests if the player gets 200 at bats in te previous season.

The Dodgers

Frank McCourt at New York City's Housing Works...

Not this Frank McCourt

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 14:  Los Angeles Dodge...

This is the guy.

The long, drawn out saga of Frank McCourt seems to be drawing to an end.  A group that includes NBA great Magic Johnson is going to buy the Dodgers for more than $2 billion, the highest price ever for a sports franchise.  McCourt will retain some rights to the parking lots, but will not receive parking-related revenue (this was a major issue).  McCourt paid $421 million for the team in 2004, so he should reap a tidy profit (even after using some of the cash toward his divorce settlement).

Why so much money?  Television rights.  Currently, Fox pays $38 million per season for the rights to televise Dodgers games.  That deal expires after the 2013 season, and the price is going to go through the roof.  How much do the Dodgers stand to gain from TV rights?  Well, the cross-town Angels recently signed a deal that will pay the team $3 billion over the next twenty years.

I’m actually a bit disappointed to see the Dodgers messed cleaned up.  The longer it lingered, the more it helped the other teams in the Dodgers’ division – including my Rockies.

 

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The Ultimate Bust: Ryan Leaf

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GREAT FALLS, MT - APRIL 02:  In this handout i...

Ryan Leaf: the anti-Manning

Two college quarterbacks are certain to be drafted 1-2 in this year’s NFL draft.  The near-certain #1 will be the polished field general from Stanford, Andrew Luck.  After the Colts snap up Luck, the Washington Redskins will select Robert Griffin III, the freakishly athletic QB from Baylor.

In 1998, the Colts also had the first overall pick in the draft.  That year, too, two quarterbacks were certain to go 1-2.  There was the polished guy from Tennessee, Peyton Manning.  Not only did he seem to understand the game at a very high level, his dad (Archie) had also played in the NFL.

The other guy was Washington State’s Ryan Leaf.  If you wanted raw athletic skill, you’d pick Leaf.  The Colts were divided internally, with the scouts preferring Leaf but the people with actual power in the front office preferring Manning.  The rest is history, with Manning winning a Super Bowl and taking the Colts to heights their fans could never imagine.

The San Diego Chargers calmly selected Leaf with the second pick, ecstatic to have a franchise quarterback.  It was probably the worst mistake the organization ever made.

Leaf picked fights with the media, alienated teammates, played golf when he should have been studying film, and played terribly when he was on the field.  The highlights of his rookie year were two touchdown passes.  Unfortunately, the low points were the fifteen interceptions.  He was eventually benched in favor of Craig Whelihan.

Leaf was out of the NFL by 2001, at the age of 25.  He finished his career with 14 touchdowns and 36 interceptions.  Had the Ryan Leaf story ended at that point, he would have simply been a spectacular NFL bust.  There have been plenty of highly touted quarterbacks who performed very poorly in the NFL.

But the next steps in Leaf’s life have made him not just a bust in football, but a bust in life.  Leaf has developed an addiction to pain killers, and it’s been landing him in jail on a frequent basis in recent years.  In 2008, while working as an assistant football coach, he asked a player for a painkiller.  It is, of course, illegal to use someone else’s prescription drugs.

In recent years, Leaf has taken to burglary to feed his habit.  In 2010, he was sentenced to ten years probation for burglary and possession of a controlled substance.

Last year, he had a benign tumor removed from his brain stem – something that would scare a lot of people straight.

This past Friday, he violated that probation by breaking into a house to steal pills.  He bonded out … and was arrested again today after breaking into another home and stealing three bottles of pills.  Police obtained a warrant for GPS data from Leaf’s truck, which placed him at the scene of the crime.  Police were checking with residents of ten other homes where Leaf stopped.  Texas authorities are revoking Leaf’s probation.

Authorities also believe that Leaf has been received small, rattling packages worth more than $500 once or twice per week.  You can probably figure out what’s in those packages.

It’s sad that Leaf’s career turned into the mess that it did – but it’s just sports.  It’s tragic that a young man who once was lauded by millions has become nothing more than a common junkie.

Ryan Leaf is still a relatively young man – 51 weeks younger than me – so there’s still hope for him.  But he needs to turn his life around immediately, or he’ll spend the rest of his life in prison – or he’ll stumble toward an early grave.

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Are Sports Fans Dumb?

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WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 27: Columnist George Will...

George Will is a big baseball fan. He also writes on other topics.

In the midst of a semi-related topic on another site, once again I saw someone bring up the old stereotypes – sports fans are dumb.  They have no interests outside of sports and just lay on the couch watching football and eating Cheetos.

Clearly, the stereotype is exaggerated.  However, there are certainly a lot of people who consider sports fan to be intellectually challenged.  I’m won’t argue that every sports fan is a member of Mensa (although I know some who are), but it’s also not true that all sports fans are dumb.  Are there some sports fans who are also dumb?  Sure.  But find me any self-selecting group of several million people that doesn’t have a few dim bulbs.

The sports fans I come into contact with on a regular basis are pretty bright.  Our resident sports writer, Johnny Goodman, has a degree in Economics and History.  He now works in a different discipline.  We work for the same employer (different offices) and the feedback I hear is that he’s very much in-demand for his expertise.

Martin Kelly is an aerospace engineer who has worked on NASA projects.  Frequent reader Evan is a lawyer by day and tech writer by night.  My good friend Lazy Man, despite the name, is a successful entrepreneur.  I talk baseball with my dentist.  My wife is a CPA and also a big fan of the St. Louis Rams and Iowa Hawkeyes.

Nearly every writer on The Soap Boxers is a sports fan to some extent (although I believe Kate’s level of interest is fairly low).  Obviously, all of them have interests outside of sports, since they write on other topics.  Issues such as legalization of marijuana, drilling for oil in ANWR, the morality of torture, and how to become a more effective writer.  Personally, I have a lot of interests outside of sports – among them computers, forensic science, paleontology, and world history.

To cast the net further, look at George Will and Nate Silver.  Both are very well-known in the world of politics.  The New York Times once called Will “perhaps the most powerful journalist in America” and Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com had millions of fans before the New York Times decided to license the site for their own use.  Clearly, these are two bright guys.  They are also big sports fans.  Will has written two books on the subject (Men at Work and Bunts) and Silver developed the PECOTA method of projecting future performance of players (currently used by Baseball Prospectus).

My point?  Don’t assume that someone is dumb just because they happen to be a sports fan.  In return, I won’t assume that you are dumb because you like Dancing With the Stars or scrimshaw.  A person’s leisure interests provide flavor to their life.  Leisure is supposed to be fun, not work.  So if your idea of a good time is kicking back and watching a game, don’t feel any guilt – just do it.

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Broncos Trade Tim Tebow To Jets

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DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 17:  Quarterback Mark Sa...

Love ya, teammate!

Tim Tebow sparked Tebowmania in 2011.  Despite uneven – and at times very bad – play at the quarterback position, Tebow managed a 7-4 record as a starter and became a much beloved figure in the Mile High City.  Tebow jersey were flying off the shelves, and high school kids everywhere were tebowing.

The amazing flight of Tim Tebow crash landed this week when the Broncos signed future Hall of Famer quarterback Peyton Manning to a contract.  Manning was cut loose by the Indianapolis Colts to avoid payment of a $28 million roster bonus.  After a prolonged recruiting trip, current Hall of Famer and Denver icon John Elway convinced Manning that the place for him to begin his quest for another ring was in Denver.

Naturally, the minute that Manning signed on the dotted line, he became the starting quarterback for the Broncos.  You don’t pay a guy $96 million (over five years) to carry a clipboard.  Suddenly, Manning is The Man and Tebow was relegated to backup duty, perhaps being rotated in for a series once in a while.  Maybe even converted to a halfback to keep his athleticism on the field.

Then the other shoe dropped.  Tebow was being shipped out.  He was traded today to the New York Jets.  The Jets got Tebow and a 7th round pick and the Broncos got a 4th and 6th round pick.

How the mighty have fallen.  The once “great” Tebow was now being valued less than a hundred or so players who will be drafted before the Broncos will be able to draft a player with that 4th round pick.

Does the deal make sense for the Broncos?

I’m not a huge Tebow fan, but this deal makes very little sense to me.  Many people – including me – felt that he was overvalued when the Broncos spent a first round pick on him.  But on the flip side, I definitely think he’s worth more than a 4th rounder plus the 6-for-7 swap.  Really, there’s a player in the 4th round who provides more value to the Broncos than Tim Tebow?

IOWA CITY, IA - NOVEMBER 21: Linebacker A.J. E...

This is Adam Weber.

Without Tebow on the roster, the Broncos are going to be force to acquire a backup quarterback.  They chased Kyle Orton out of town – to give Tebow a wide berth.  Brady Quinn recently signed with KC while the Manning/Tebow sagas played out.  According to NFL.com, the only other QB on Denver’s roster is Adam Weber.  Weber is best known for … actually, nobody really knows who he is.  He may not have existed when I began writing this article.  As for the wisdom of backup up Manning with an inexperience QB – how did that work out for the Colts this year (other than winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes)?

It’s not even about the money – Tebow will make $1.942 million in 2012, $2.266 million in 2013, and $2.590 million in 2014.  Those are bad salaries for a guy who has shown some ability to win games.  Heck, Matt Flynn recently signed a $24 million contract (over three years) on the strength of his performance in ONE game.

Does the deal make sense for the Jets?

Definitely.  They only give up a 4th round pick for Tebow.  At worst, he backs up Mark Sanchez and serves as a capable second string QB.  If Sanchez were to continue to regress, there’s even the chance that the Jets would let Tebow take the team out for a spin and see what he can do with the offense.  Although some are rubbed the wrong way by Tebow’s Christian messages, he’s definitely not the sort of player who is going to make headlines for the wrong reason (Big Ben).

All in all, there’s very little downside here, and a decent amount of upside – especially if Tebow can every figure out how the pass the ball effectively.

Around the NFL: Horse of a different color

ST. LOUIS, MO - AUGUST 13: Jeff Saturday #63 a...

I was not able to find a public domain image of Saturday's backside.

Several other Colts may be switching their mounts and also joined the Broncos.  My friend Ray gave me a heads-up that center Jeff Saturday, tight end Dallas Clark,  and running back Joseph Addai are all being mentioned as possible free agent signings by Denver.  If all goes well for Denver, Manning could once again be staring at Saturday’s butt, handing the ball off the Addai, and finding Dallas Clark in the back on the end zone.

Add these cogs into the mix, and the Broncos could easily find themselves in the playoff rodeo once again.

Around the NFL: Saints Brass Lose Halos

The other big new story of the day is the NFL cracking down on the New Orleans Saints for Bountygate.

Suspensions:

  • Head coach Sean Payton, entire 2012 season
  • GM Mickey Loomis, eight games
  • Assistant coach Joe Vitt, six games
  • Former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams (now with Rams) suspended indefinitely.  Status to be reviewed after the season.

Other penalties:

  • $500,000 fine
  • Forfeiture of second round picks in 2012 and 2013

It’s interesting to look at these penalties alongside the penalties for SpyGate.  There were no suspensions for the Patriots, but they were stripped of a first round pick.  So was BountyGate worse, or SpyGate?
 

 

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Is a $50 Light Bulb Affordable?

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“You’re choosing $50 lightbulbs,” Senator Rand Paul said. “Nobody understands that in America.”

BOWLING GREEN, KY - NOVEMBER 01:  Rand Paul, t...

There has been much discussion about Philips winning a $10 million award (the L prize) for affordable lighting – for a light bulb that costs $50.  Sounds crazy, doesn’t it?  Even with a 25,000 hour productive life, the bulb would cost far more than a bunch of incandescents that do the same job, right?  This seems to be a commonly held belief – but it’s wrong.

I believe that Senator Paul is correct, and this concerns me.  I believe that he is correct that many people don’t understand how a $50 light bulb could be a good thing, and I feel that this stems from a failure to understand some basic math and science concepts.

There are two factors in the total cost of ownership of a light bulb.  With a standard incandescent bulb, the cheap part is the bulb. The far more expensive portion is the electricity to power the bulb.

Cost Comparison

Let’s compare costs over a 25,000 hour lifespan :

  Incandescent $50 LED
Bulb Cost 50 cents $50
Number of bulbs 17
(1500 hour life)
1
Watts used 60 10
kWh used
(Watts X 25000)/1000
1500 250

 
I used the high end of the life for the incandescent bulbs (rated at 750 – 1500 hours), but even with this, you’ll have used 17 bulbs during the life of one of the Philips LED bulbs. So we’re comparing a $50 bulb to $8.50 worth of incandescents. OK, incandescents are still $41.50 cheaper, right?

Then we get to electricity usage. Assuming 10 cents per kWh, the $50 LED bulb will usage $25 worth of electricity. The incandescents will use $150 worth of electricity.

Total cost for the $50 LED bulb: $50 for bulb + $25 for electricity = $75

Total cost for incandescents: $8.50 for bulbs + $150 for electricity = $158.59

Now do you see why it might make sense to buy the “expensive” bulbs?

Criticism of the LED Bulbs

Here are some of the comments I hear about the LED bulbs:

If I break a bulb, it’s $50 instead of 50 cents.

Seriously, how many bulbs do you people break?  I’m 36, and I’ve broken one in my entire life – and it was a bulb I was removing.  If bulb breakage is a common problem, you might want to be a bit more careful.  Also, since LED bulbs are solid state, they are more resistant to shock and vibration – less likely to break.

There’s mercury in LED bulbs.

No, there isn’t.  You’re thinking of compact flourescent bulbs.

If I can’t recover the cost of an investment in 2-3 years, it’s not worth my time.

Anything that doesn’t have a ROI north of 33% isn’t worth your time?

Which would you rather have:

  • Product A recovers the cost of the initial investment in 18 months and has a life span of 24 months.
  • Product B recovers the cost of the initial investment in 4 years and has a life span of 10 years.

Obviously, product B is the better choice.  It takes longer to recover the investment, but it keeps saving you money for a longer period of time afterward.

The lighting is of worse quality

Honestly, I really don’t notice a difference between incandescent, compact flourescent, and LED.  Some people do.

If I sell my house or remodel, I won’t get the full savings from the bulbs.

Fair point.  It’s important to note that the break even point from the example above is 8300 hours, so even if you only have the bulb for half the life, you come out ahead.  In any case, I suspect that you have a number of bulbs in your house that are fairly resistant to remodeling efforts – perhaps the laundry room or garage?

If you sell the house, you may be able to use the existence of LED bulbs as a selling point.

These bulbs won’t last 25,000 hours

Possible.  If I had to bet, though, I’d bet that they come awful close to it.  If they even average half the estimated useful life, they still save money.

There will be cheaper bulbs next year

This is true – most likely, the cost of LED bulbs will continue to fall.  Should you replace now or wait?  The critical factor is how much you use the bulb.  If you have it on 8 hours a day, 365 days a year, that’s 2920 hours.  You’d save 146 kwH per year, for an annual savings of $14.60 (based on the 10 cents per kWh – if your cost is higher, the savings is more).  Use the bulb an hour per day, and the cost savings is  $1.83 per year (but, in theory, the bulb would last nearly 70 years).

It’s also worth noting that the Philips 10 watt LED isn’t the only game in town.  There are cheaper options, even from Philips.  You can currently buy a 4 pack of 12.5 watt, 800 lumen Philips LED bulbs for less than $100 (below) – half the price per bulb.  In fact, the total cost of ownership of the 12.5 watt bulbs will be less than the total cost of ownership of the 10 watt bulbs.  You’ll spend somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 – $10 more for electricity, but save $25 on the bulb.

 

 

A couple of points in closing:

Often, green choices cost more.  With the LED bulbs, you can save money at the same to you help control dependence on foreign energy (since the energy saved in lighting can be used elsewhere).

While much of the criticism of the bulbs pertains to their use by consumers, industrial use of LED bulbs are a big part of the cost savings.  The city where I work recently replaced bulbs in city parking garages with LED.  Not only is there cost savings from the energy usage, but it also reduces the maintenance of replacing the bulbs.  LEDs are also a popular choice for traffic lights, where extended bulb life can make the streets safer.

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Day 1 Of the NCAA Tournament

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After one day of the NCAA tournament, I stand at 13-3.  That’s not great, since “chalk” picks would have gone 14-2.

SAN ANTONIO, TX - MARCH 27:  Head coach Shaka ...

My best pick was #12 VCU over #5 Wichita State.  (Note: numbers used in this article are seeds, and not rankings).  Personally, I didn’t even consider this to be an upset.  This is a team that made a Final Four run last year.  Regardless of player turnover, coach Shaka Smart  remains with the team.  I’m not yet anointing VCU as this decade’s Gonzaga, but I’d like to point out the fact that Smart is 10-1 all-time in post-season tournaments.  In addition to the success last year, he led the 2010 team to the CBI tournament championship.  Sure, the CBI is a far less prestigious tournament, but it would seem that Smart does well with the one-and-done philosophy of tournament play.  Whether Smart can continue to turn down opportunities to earn more money at other schools remains to be seen – but it would be nice to see him stick around VCU and turn them into a perennial power.

My worst pick was Davidson over Louisville.  Even worse, I picked Davidson to advance to the Sweet 16.  One of these years, I’m going to do a chalk bracket, I swear.

LOUISVILLE, KY - MARCH 15:  Royce White #30 of...

UConn became the first defending champ to get bounced in the first round since UCLA in 1996.  My Iowa State Cyclones roared out to a 22 point lead early in the game and fended off some late charges by the Huskies.  Iowa State now faces #1 overall seed Kentucky.  However, if the team can manage to play as well as they did early in last night’s game, I think they have a chance to win the game an advance.  I do have the concerns that Royce White may have punched his ticket to the NBA and will leave after this year.  I’d really prefer that he return for at least another year.  The 6’8″ power forward led the Cyclones in five statistical categories and is quick to exploit mismatches.

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 08:  Fab Melo #51 of the ...

The biggest story of the day was #1 seed Syracuse needing a second half rally to beat 16 seed UNC Asheville.  Although coach Jim Boeheim didn’t thing that the Orange were the beneficiaries of any luck in the game, I would disagree.  This is a game that was hotly contested in the final minute, and could easily have gone either way – especially if a controversial call had gone UNC Asheville’s way.  I initially had Syracuse as a Final Four team in my bracket, but pulled them back to be just a Sweet 16 team upon the news that Fab Melo would not be allowed to play in any tournament games.  I think this was a wise decision.

Personally, I thought the biggest surprise in the Thursday session was the Pac 12 getting a win from Colorado.  The Pac 12 was a very mediocre (bad) conference this year, and was fortunate to get two teams into the 68 team field (Cal was bounced in the opening round).

Personally, I don’t find it that surprising that some of the teams from smaller schools play well in the tournaments.  The standard mantra from the analysts is that it’s all about having a team peak at tournament time.  For teams that come from one-bid conference, they are in the tournament because they won their conference tournament.  That’s the definition of peaking. 

OK, day 2 is about to begin.  Enjoy!

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Who Will Win The World Series?

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LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 26:  Jhoulys Chacin #45...

Do you know who this man is?

It’s the opening day of the NCAA tournament.  What better day to talk about baseball?  It’s finally time for me to give my playoff predictions.  The regular season is about twenty days away at this point, and temperatures in the 70s in Iowa are making the season seem ever closer. 

There’s have been a lot of changes this year, and the future will bring even more changes, with new penalties for exceeding signing bonuses for draftees and international free agents … not the mention the Astros being kicked to the curb (forced to the AL) next year).

American Legion

English: Carl Crawford between innings in an A...

East – For the first time, there will be two wild card teams in each division.  In theory, three teams from the same division could make the playoffs.  I doubt that this will remain a hypothetical situation for very long.  I fully expect the Yankees, Red Sox, and Devil Rays strongly content for the playoffs this year.  The real question is which team will earn a bye by winning the division and which two will be forced to square off in the coin-clip game.  I’m going to take the Red Sox.  I fully expect Carl Crawford to snap out of his funk and return to being a very good all-around player.  I also think this is the year that David Ortiz fixes his April/May problems and become a great hitter for all six months of the season.  The Sox do have to find a way to replace the production of the underrated Marco Scutaro at shortstop, but overall, I think this is a team that should be better than last year’s version.

Central – A good Tigers team adds Prince Fielder.  If they don’t have the division wrapped up by mid-September, I’ll be surprised.  The question does remain whether or not Miguel Cabrera can adequately field the ball at 3B, or whether one of Cabrera/Fielder is going to have to DH.

SURPRISE, AZ - FEBRUARY 23:  Yu Darvish #11 of...

West – This should be another great race.   The Angels sign free agent C.J. Wilson away from the Rangers and also nab Albert Pujols – and they still might not win the division!  The Rangers replaced Wilson with Yu Darvish and signed closer Joe Nathan – which should push stud closer Neftali Feliz into the rotation.  If Hamilton can stay healthy this year, the Rangers will win the west.

Wild Card – OK, I’ll pencil in the Yankees one last time.  I think they significantly strengthened their pitching staff by adding Michael Pindea and the underrated Hiroki Kuroda.  I think this is the year when we see a notable decline from Derek Jeter, but I think Cano, Big Tex, and company can keep the wheels on for one more season.

The only wild card team has to be the Angels.  While the Devil Rays have a lot of good young players, you can’t add an MVP caliber player and a Cy Young contending starting pitcher to a team and expect them to miss the playoffs (unless you’re the Mets).

The close-but-no-cigar award goes to the Devil Rays.

National League

East – This division is going to shape up to be  the best division in baseball in a couple of years.  At the moment, however, I think the Phillies still control the East.  Their ability to throw an ace at the opposing team nearly ever day means that they are a virtual lock for 90+ wins.  There are definitely some footsteps to be heard – Washington is building a good young team and the Marlins should also be on the upswing.

PHOENIX, AZ - APRIL 12:  Matt Holliday #7 of t...

Central – Albert Pujols is gone after leading the Cardinals to an improbable World Series run.  That’s definitely a huge blow, but it is offset somewhat by the return of Adam Wainwright and the signing of Carlos Beltran (Lance Berkman will shift to first base).  Would the Cardinals be a better team with Pujols AND Wainwright in the lineup?  Definitely.  But I think the Cardinals can tread water in the Central and allow the Brewers to get worse.  This could also be the year when Matt Holliday re-emerges in the public eye after time in the shadow of Pujols?  Remember those people who predicted that Holliday would turn into a mediocre hitter once he left Coors Field?  It hasn’t happened so far.

SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 6: Troy Tulowitzki #2 of ...

West – I’m going to go out on a limb and pick my Colorado Rockies to win the west.  Is it a homer call?  Definitely.  Do I think there’s an actual chance of it happening?  Definitely.  Some pundits have said that Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd is considering age to be the new market inefficiency when it comes to player valuation.  I think they are correct in their beliefs, and I also believe that O’Dowd may have a point.  The Rockies should be one of the more interesting stories in baseball as they attempt to add some aging vets (OF Michael Cuddyer, SS Marco Scutaro, and possibly Jamie Moyer) to a team that is also going to expect significant contributions from a number of very young players notably pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Drew Pomeranz and catcher Wilin Rosario, and perhaps even 20 year old 3B Nolan Arenado.  If the veterans play well, and the kids avoid the mistakes of youth, this could be a very good team.  If the veterans get old and the youngsters have trouble adjusting, this could be a very bad year.

I really expect Troy Tulowitzki to win an MVP award within the next 5 years, and this could be the year (after all, this is his age 27 season).  I think Tulo and Cargo will be a real force in the middle of the Rockies order.  On the mound, I expect people to finally notice Jhoulys Chacin.  He’s really good and really young (just turned 24).  He’s the mystery man at the top of the column.

English: Stephen Strasburg

Wild card – I think this is the year the NL East breaks through.  Not just multiple teams in the playoffs, but I see both of the wild card teams coming from the East.  The Nationals have been building  a very good team, and I think this is their breakthrough year.  Bryce Harper might make an impact this year, but my guess is that the return of Stephen Strasburg will have a bigger impact.  And in Florida, the Marlins have added Jose Reyes at shortstop (pushing Hanley Ramirez to third base) and also Heath Bell in the bullpen.  The new stadium opens with a bang – increased attendance (I hope) and a winning team.

DENVER, CO - JUNE 19:  Starting pitcher Justin...

Playoffs

Coin Flip round – The Nationals dump the Marlins and the Angels beat the Yankees.  Zero confidence in this, since one game is too small of sample size.

Division Series Winners – Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, and Cardinals

League Championship Series Winners – Tigers and Phillies
World Series – Tigers over Phillies.  Rain thwarted the chances of the Tigers to fully utilize Verlander against the Rangers last year.  In the World Series, Detroit will pitch him in games 1, 4, and 7 and also nab another win from someone.

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Breaking Down My Bracket

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I’m a big sports fan, although I’m not into basketball as much as baseball.  Furthermore, I really haven’t had much of a chance to see many games this year, or follow much of the news.  This essentially means that your bracket is probably better than mine.  Nonetheless, I’ll thrust my bracket upon you.

South Region

KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 08:  Head coach Fred H...

First round winners: Kentucky, Iowa State, VCU, Indiana, UNLV, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Duke.  This is all chalk, so no real explanations for my picks.  I’d love to see Western Kentucky –  a team with a losing record – be the first team to upend a #1 seed … but it’s not going to happen.

Second round winners: Iowa State, Indiana, Baylor, and Duke.  Iowa State is my alma mater, and this is a clear “homer” pick.  Having said that, the Cyclones beat Kansas and Baylor in the regular season, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they could beat Kentucky – although playing them in Louisville is a tough draw.

KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 09:  Brady Heslip #5 o...

Third round winners: Indiana and Baylor.  I can’t completely torch my bracket by taking the Cyclones out any further, so I have the Hoosiers knock them off at this point.  It feels dirty picking a Big 10 team to beat Iowa State.  Baylor over coach K?  I like Baylor, mostly because of how they have rebuilt the program after Dave Bliss burned it to the ground.  If you don’t remember the Bliss era at Baylor, look it up sometime when you’re feeling too happy.  It will definitely take your mood down a notch or three.

Regional champ: Baylor.  The Bears finished the Big 12 conference season with a 12-6 record – but four of those losses were to Kansas and Missouri.  Those teams seem to have Baylor’s number – but I’m betting the bears will fare better against outside competition.

West Region

LAS VEGAS, NV - JANUARY 22:  Head coach Steve ...

First round winners: Michigan State, Saint Louis, New Mexico, Davidson, Murray State, Marquette, Virginia, Missouri.  There we go – some first round upsets sneak into my bracket.  I remember when Davidson make their run a few years back with Steph Curry.  What stuck out on my mind was that the college did laundry for the students, so that they could focus on their studies (granted, this means they’d unleash a group of 22 year olds that can’t do laundry …)  That’s quirky, and I like quirky.  I always pick some 9-8 and 10-7 upsets, so Saint Louis and Virginia shouldn’t be shockers.  Saint Louis in particular is an apt pick, because the Billiken is a strange little creature.

Second round winners: Michigan State, Davidson, Murray State, Missouri.  New Mexico coach Steve Alford was previously the coach at the University of Iowa.  He’s not very well like in the state.  Although I’m a fan of Iowa State and not Iowa, the stories I’ve heard about him don’t paint a good picture.  Thus, I have no qualms picking his team to go down in flames.  Murray State’s an upsets according to the seeds (6 over 3), but Murray State is actually ranked higher than Marquette in the coaches poll (and is one spot behind them in the AP poll. 

MOREHEAD, KY - JANUARY 18:  Steve Prohm the he...

Third round winners: Michigan State and Murray State.  Davidson’s run ends in the third round.  I have the utmost respect for Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, one of the greats in the game.  Why Murray State over Mizzou.  Well, first of all, I hate Mizzou.  Second, the disconnect between the voters and the selection committee bothers me.  I realize that these are different groups of people, but one of the groups is clearly wrong.  You can’t be the #9 team in the nation (coaches poll) and also be the #6 seed (which means at least 20 teams are seeded higher).  One of these things is wrong.

Regional champ: Murray State.  Hey, why not?  Regardless of how weak Murray State’s conference is, the fact remains that they won 30 of 31 games.  That’s incredibly difficult to do – at some point, you just run into a team that is on a hot streak and you fall short.  I’ll bring the whole ranking vs. seeding debate to a head by pushing Murray State into the Final Four.

East Region

LOUISVILLE, KY - FEBRUARY 13: Kris Joseph #32 ...

First round winners: Syracuse, Kansas State, Harvard, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Florida State, Gonzaga, Ohio State.  The big upset here is Harvard over Vanderbilt.  However, a 12 usually beats a 5, and why not pick a 12 that has a sterling reputation for academics.  After all, that’s the whole reason for colleges.

Second round winners: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Florida State, Gonazaga.  I push Gonzaga forward based on the strength of their coach.  The rest of my picks here are chalk.

LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 07:  Head coach Mark Few...

Third round winners: Wisconsin and Gonzaga.  Syracuse will not have the services of Fab Melo for the tournament.  I think they can get by UNC Asheville and Kansas State without him, but I think Wisconsin comes away with the win.  I like the Zags, and their coach, Mark Few.  I know almost nothing about Florida State, so Gonzaga is basically my default pick here.

Regional champ: Wisconsin.  Seems like they always peak at tourney time.

Midwest Region

GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 12:  Harrison Barnes #4...

First round winners: North Carolina, Creighton, Temple, Ohio, San Siego State, Georgetown, St. Mary’s, Kansas.  The only upset here is Ohio over Michigan.  The main reason for this is the animosity between the two states (yes, I realize that this Ohio and not Ohio State).

Second round winners: North Carolina, Temple, Georgetown, Kansas.  All chalk here … boring picks in this region so far.

LAWRENCE, KS - JANUARY 29:  Josh Selby #32 of ...

Third round winners: North Carolina and Kansas.  Yawn … very predictable.  Two of the better programs in the country, headed by coaches with length post-season resumes.

Regional Champ: North Carolina.  First of all, I despise Kansas basketball.  Second, North Carolina star Harrison Barnes is an Iowa kid, so I have to root for him to succeed.  I wish he had stayed in-state (in town, actually) and played for Iowa State, but kids need to make their own choices, so I’m OK with his decision and wish him success.

Final Four

WACO, TX - OCTOBER 24: The Baylor Bears mascot...

OK, it’s the end of the road for Murray State, as they lose to Baylor.  On the other side of the bracket, Harrison Barnes powers North Carolina to the finals with a win over Wisconsin.

In the championship game, Baylor caps off a tremendous academic year with the national title.  Add in the football team’s great season and a possible (likely?) championship on the women’s side, and the roar of the Bears can be heard from afar.

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The Draft Continues

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Jon Lester

Note: this is the second in a series.  Go here to start.

Most importantly, I have a name for my team (I use a different name each year).  It’s The Electric Company … ‘cuz the power is always on.

Round 5

I get L and the group O/I for this round.  Time to get some pitchers.  I grab Jon Lester of the Red Sox with L.  Lester should be good for 15-18 wins, 200+ strikeouts, and an ERA in the low 3s.

O+I is a bad letting grouping.  I think about nabbing Raul Ibanez, but take Juan Oviedo (former Leo Nunez).  Oviedo lost his closer role to Heath Bell, but maybe Bell will get hurt.  Worst case scenario is that I cut him loose.  There’s not point in getting attached to an O/I player – they rarely pan out.

Round 6

I get C and F this around.  Did one of the shortstops fall to me?  Yep – Asdrubal Cabrera.  Cabrera and Castro are fairly similar in value in most categories (we use OBP, so Cabrera’s ability to walk offsets Castro’s higher BA), except that Cabrera smacked 25 homer last year.  That’s probably a fluke, but maybe not.  In any case, I can breath a sigh of relief at having a shortstop.

F has more possibilities.  Pitchers Gavin Floyd (starter), Frank Francisco (reliever), and outfielder Dexter Fowler.  I try to avoid overtly “homer” picks, but I go with Fowler.  I believe that he finally has things figured out after a couple of stints in AAA.  He should provide good OBP and steals, and perhaps even a bit of power if the off-season weight game helps his strength.  Also, I haven’t picked any outfielders yet, and I’ll need some.

Round 7

Letters for the round are R and J.  J is not a great letter.  Desmond Jennings got snapped up in the previous round, so I’m picking between Jair Jurrjens and Edwin Jackson.  E-Jack is in  a pitcher’s park in Washington, so I nab him.  However, I really don’t want mediocre (or worse) pitchers dragging down my ERA and WHIP, so I’ll have a quick hook.

R is a no-brainer.  Yankees ace closer Mariano Rivera joins my team to provide some saves.

Round 8

I have H and A in round 8.  The pickings are getting slim in the letter A.  It’s down to a choice between the once-great but aging Bobby Abreu, and the up-and-comer Yonder Alonso.  Neither is guaranteed a full slate of at bats this year.  While Abreu’s steals are tempting, I take Alonso.  Among other considerations, if he becomes the first baseman for he Padres, he will be eligible at boh 1B and OF.  Also, I like the name.

Matt Holliday is my guy at H.  He’s a safe bet for a .380+ OBP with 25-30 homers, and 90-100 RBI.

 

At this point, I’ve picked sixteen players – eleven position players and five pitchers.  I narrowly missed getting Demond Jennings as my J guy and I was hoping that somehow Mike Trout would drop to me in the 1oth round (unlikely, and it didn’t happen), but on the flip side, I had Asdrubal Cabrera fall to me, so I can’t complain.

I’ve filled all the offensive positions so far.  I’d really like to add another strong outfield bat at some point, in case Fowler and/or Alonso falter.  I definitely want to stock up on closers.  Either Heath Bell or Andrew Bailey are guaranteed to fall to me, and I’ll take either of them (even if Carlos Beltran is available) and I’ll likely go after Jason Motte or Carlos Marmol in the 10th.  That would give me four closers (as well as Oviedo, who would likely fill in if Bell got injured).  After the ten rounds, we fill three most roster spots.  I’ll likely fill two of them with another outfielder and another closer.

More draft results to follow.

 

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The Death of Andrew Breitbart and Other News

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Media personality Andrew Breitbart gives a spe...

Who Killed Breitbart?  His Heart.

It’s been a week since conservative leader Andrew Breitbart died.  At the time, I asked a friend of mine how long it would be before conspiracy theories started circulating about his death.  It took only a few days before people were saying that the Obama administration had Breitbart whacked.  While it’s fun to spin the theories, sometimes 43 year old men simply die.  My brother was only a bit older when he died due to heart issues.  It happens.

Now, if Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly both turn up dead in the next week, then I’ll agree that we should be taking a long hard look at this.  But until that happens, I’d suggest that Breitbart’s fans celebrate his life rather than trying to indict the president for murder.

The Billionaires Club

Mitt Romney picked up six wins on Super Tuesday, Rick Santorum picked up three, and Newt Gingrich won Georgia (the state he represented in congress).  It’s interesting to note that Santorum and Gingrich each have their own person billionaire funneling tons of money to them via SuperPACs.  This is completely legal.  However, the existence of the SuperPACs means that both can stay in the race even if they aren’t receiving decent fundraising support from anyone else.  In previous years, lack of funding likely would have pushed one of them out of the race by now, leaving the other to go head to head with Mitt Romney.  Head to head with Romney, either of them would have a chance.  But as it stands, they are splitting the non-Romney vote and are coming up short.  Romney can get a plurality in a three candidate race, but would likely have problems gaining a majority in a two candidate race.

Peyton Manning

After 14 years in Indianapolis, the Colts cut Peyton Manning.  The Colts are catching a lot of flak for this move, with many saying that they haven’t been loyal to the player who had built the franchise.

It’s true that Peyton Manning took over a team that sucked and turned it into a great team – largely due to the fact that he’s a stud quarterback.

But bear in mind that the Colts paid Peyton $26.4 million last year – when he didn’t play a down.  He was due to get a $28 million roster bonus if he wasn’t cut.  This isn’t some sort of pro-rated amount that would allow the Colts to wait around a month or two to see how Manning was doing – it was $28 million all at once.  If Manning didn’t play in 2012, this would have meant the Colts has paid $54.4 million for absolutely no on-field production.  Even if money wasn’t an issue, NFL teams are bound by a salary cap, and that sort of a cap hit would make it very hard to maintain a successful team.

If I were Irsay, I’d try to sign Manning to a one year deal with a low base salary and hefty incentives.  If he plays, he makes decent money.  If he doesn’t, then the cost is minimal.

Are the Colts right to go after Andrew Luck in the draft?  Certainly.  Even if Manning were to play this year, at some point soon he’ll be at the end of his career.  There’s no guarantee that the Colts will be able to get a player of Luck’s caliber in a later draft (in fact, it’s very unlikely, as a healthy Manning means a better team and a worse draft pick).  You need to take the bird in the hand.  I also tend to be a fan of having a young QB carry a clipboard for a year or two,  While a handful of recent QB have had success being thrown into the fire, historically, this has burned a lot of teams.

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