Analysis of the Iowa Caucus Results

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It was an interesting night in my home state of Iowa last night.  In the Republican caucus, Mitt Romney eked out an eight vote win over Rick Santorum.  The order of finish was:

  1. Romney
  2. Santorum
  3. Paul
  4. Gingrich
  5. Perry
  6. Bachmann
  7. Huntsman
  8. Cain

I correctly predicted the 1-6 order of finish yesterday on another site of mine, Donkey and Elephant Show (I didn’t bother including Huntsman and Cain, as it was apparent that they would do very poorly).

Romney, Paul, and Santorum each had more than 20% of the vote and emerge as the front-runners.  Huntsman decided to skip Iowa entirely and focus on New Hampshire.  This ensured him of a poor showing in Iowa, but might endear him to the voters of New Hampshire.

Perry’s going home to think about things and figure out if there is a path forward.  Considering the fact that he made a huge media buy in Iowa and still couldn’t crack the top 4, I’m guessing that there’s not a path forward.

Michele Bachmann seems willing to hang in for a bit longer.  I don’t see how she’s a viable candidate.  She represents a neighboring state (Minnesota) in congress, was born in Iowa, won the Ames Straw poll, spent a ton of time in the state over the past fews months, and despite all these advantages, still managed just 5% of the vote.

Many observers felt that Santorum picked up support from the anybody-but-Romney crowd.  He doesn’t have a lot of money, and it will be interesting to see if he can raise funds to be competitive in other states.  It will also be interesting to see if he can weather the storm of attack ads that is sure to be coming.  He peaked so late in Iowa that he wasn’t the target of many attack ads.

I’m sure that Paul’s third place finish comes as a shock to many of his supporters.  Crunchy had her own predictions on Yahoo yesterday, and one commenter left this doozy of a response (excerpt)

only about 90% of those who post comments and rate them online support Ron Paul. Romney is met with disdain and Santorum, derision. While the demographics are no doubt skewed here towards thinking people as opposed to sheeple, you can’t change 90% into third place without fixing it

Unfortunately, the number of vocal online supporters a candidate has doesn’t necessarily translate into the number of voters they will get.  While it’s important to have devoted followers, they are only one part of the mix.  You also need to get votes from people who silently support a candidate – the silent majority.

What should we expect in New Hampshire?  It’s probably that Romney will pickup a win in his back yard, but it’s possible that Huntsman could pull off  a surprise.  However, if some members of the GOP are unwilling to vote for Romney because he’s a Mormon,  then a protest vote for Hunstman wouldn’t make much sense, since he’s also Mormon. 

If Romney can consistently finish in the top 2 in the next batch of primaries and have his opponents split the time in the other spot, he should be in good shape for the nomination.  A large field works in Romney’s interest, and it splinters the anti-Romney vote in a few directions and makes it harder for any one candidate to surpass his vote total.

Ask Marilyn About Random Drug Testing

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Marilyn vos Savant has the highest reported IQ in the world and writes a weekly column where she answers questions from the great unwashed. Often time, the questions are simple enough that a person with average intelligence could answer them. Sometimes, though, she does bobble one and give an obviously wrong answer. (I guess your editor can’t question your work if you’re the smartest person in the world.)

Let’s take a look at this recent question.

I manage a drug-testing program for an organization with 400 employees. Every three months, a random-number generator selects 100 names for testing. Afterward, these names go back into the selection pool. Obviously, the probability of an employee being chosen in one quarter is 25 percent. But what’s the likelihood of being chosen over the course of a year?
Jerry Haskins, Vicksburg, Miss.
 
Marilyn responds:
The probability remains 25 percent, despite the repeated testing. One might think that as the number of tests grows, the likelihood of being chosen increases, but as long as the size of the pool remains the same, so does the probability. Goes against your intuition, doesn’t it?

Yes, it certainly does go against my intuition.  There’s a great reason for this – the answer is wrong.

Is the answer counter-intuitive?

Before we actually analyze in any detail, ask yourself if this makes sense.  Do you really think a person has a 25% chance of being chosen over the course of a year, regardless of the number of tests?  So if the company tests 1 time per year or 700 times per year (arrival, lunch break, and right before you leave every day) John Q. Public on the assembly line has a 25% chance of being picked at any time during the course of a year?

Give Marilyn a point for correctly suggesting that her answer is counter-intuitive.

Walk through the 4 tests

OK, let’s walk through the selections in each of the quarters.

  • Quarter 1: Of the 400 employees, 100 are selected and 300 are not.  At this point, we’ve broken the single group of employees into two sub-groups – those who have been selected and those who have not.
  • Quarter 2:  100 of the 400 employees are selected again.  If the sampling is truly random, 25% of each sub-group will be selected.  This means that 25% of the 100 employees (25) who were selected in the 1st quarter will be selected again, and 25% of the 300 employees (75) who were not selected in the 1st quarter will be selected.  The “selected at least once” sub-group now grows to 175 while the “never selected” subgroup shrinks to 225.  From this point on, we’ll focus on the “never selected” group.
  • Quarter 3:  The “never selected” group drops to 169.
  • Quarter 4:  The “never selected” group drops to 127.

At the end of the year, 127 of the 400 employees (31.75%) have completely avoided the testing, while 273 (68.25%) have been selected at least once.  1 or 2 people would have been selected all four times.

Show me the math

As is often the case with probability, the easiest way to attack this is to computer the odds of the opposite circumstance and subtract this from 100%.  The odds of being selected one of more times would involve computing the odds of being selected once, twice, three times, or four times and then adding the results.

Alternately, we can easily calculated the odds of never being selected, and just subtract this from 100% to arrive at the likelihood of being selected at least once.

The odds of avoiding testing in any quarter is 75%.  Thus, we simple raise .75 to the power of 4 (.75^4) to arrive at the odds of never being selected for testing – .3164, or 31.64%.  Thus the odds of being selected at least once is 68.36%.  This differs slightly from the result above because the 68.25% involved some rounding (since we must use whole people and not fractions).

The moral of the story?

Don’t place too much trust (or dis-trust) in the messenger.  Pay attention to the actual message.

Top News Stories Of 2012

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A lot of sites are highlighting the top news stories of 2011.  It’s pretty easy to do them in hindsight – how about a look forward at the top news stories of 2012.

Here are my three news stories to follow in 2012.

The presidential election

Hundreds of millions (or even billions) of dollars will be spent to obtain a job that pays a mere $400,000 per year.  Since I live in Iowa, I’ve been deluged with commercials for many months.  I can’t wait for the caucuses to be over, so that the politicians can focus on New Hampshire.  My prediction is that the economy will bounce back and Obama will ride the economic uptick to a re-election.  I’m not saying that he’ll cause the recovery, just that he’ll get the credit for it (which is fair, since presidents also get blamed for things they don’t cause.

In addition to the presidential election, there will also be elections for all of the seats in the House of Representatives and 1/3 of the seats in the Senate.  These don’t get as much attention, but they are just as important.  While the political writers on The Soap Boxers will cover the serious political news, I’ll handle the snarky stories (which coven will Christine O’Donnell join in 2012) on my new site, Donkey and Elephant Show.

The world will end

December 21 is just 359 days away.  If you happen to be in Australia on November 13 and fear that the end of the world has arrived early, don’t worry – you’re just seeing a total solar eclipse.  You’ve still got 38 days to live.

I’ve given some advice for the end of days.  Sadly, I do expect that quite a few people will saddle themselves with debt under the assumption that the world will end on December 21 and they won’t have to repay the money.  If the sun rises on December 22, we may see a spike in the number of bankruptcies.  (Sadly, I’m not kidding).

Olympics

I’m an Olympic junkie.  During the 2012 Summer games in London, I will once again learn the nuances of many sports that I pay no attention to at any other time (kayaking?).  Of particular note to me is that fact that 2004 Olympic gold medalist Cael Sanderson will attempt to win another gold in 2012.

Not only are the Olympics a great showcase for sports, but it’s also a great way to learn about other countries and cultures.  Certainly we’ll learn a lot about London during the Games, but also about countries like Trinidad and Tobago.  Have kids who hate geography but love sports?  Let them watch the Olympics and they’ll pick up some geography (and maybe even learn something about world politics).

While I’ll like watch just about anything, my main focus will be on track and field, especially since baseball has been dropped as an Olympic sport (sigh).

Your thoughts

What stories will you be following in 2012?
 

 

Mrs. Claus and the Christmas Mistress

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 This is a re-run from last year.  This is the third in a series of dark holiday tales.  You might also want to read What’s in the Chili (Halloween) and Friends for Thanksgiving.  This story has adult themes and is not suitable for young readers.

Chris leaned against the side of Santa’s workshop and exhaled a deep breath.  This was Christmas eve – a day when mall Santas around the world were finally taking a break from listening to kids rattle off the long list of items they wanted for Christmas.  Chris wasn’t actually a real mall Santa, but he was pretending to be one.

Chris noticed the women as they approached.  They were in their early 20s, and both were tall and slender.  One of them had shoulder-length blonde hair, while the other kept her dark hair short.

“Hey, Santa.  You come here often?” asked the blonde, winking and flashing a seductive smile.

“If you don’t have plans for tonight, you can come home with us for a Christmas eve dinner,” continued the brunette.  “We’ve been good girls this year!”

“I’m actually waiting for a friend to pick me up …”

“Oh, nonsense.  You’ll have much more fun with us, Santa.  We’ll be sure to get you home in time to deliver your toys.”

Chris smiled as he accepted the offer.  It never failed – hanging around a mall in a red suit on Christmas eve always got him an invitation to dinner.  Sometimes it was just turkey and mashed potatoes, but most of the time, there was dessert afterwards.  It was a bit of an odd fetish, but one that he was willing to satisfy.  He grabbed his cell phone and faked a call to the “friend” who was supposed to pick him up, cancelling the request for a ride.

When they arrived at their destination, Dawn – the blonde – took him on a tour of the house while Carmen escaped to slip into something more comfortable.

The owner of the house was a dot com millionaire who had hired the girls to look after the place while he was away on business.

“It’s a pretty good gig,” commented Dawn.  “We get to drive his Mercedes, charge take-out food to his bill, lay out by the pool … and we get paid for it.  And he’s hardly ever home, so we basically have the run of the place.”

When they arrived in the kitchen, Carmen was setting the table.  Chris was mesmerized at the image.  Carmen was wearing an impossibly short red dress, laced up the back.  Red stockings and heels further emphasized the fact that this was Christmas.  A Santa hat finished the outfit.

“Do you like it?” she asked, spinning around to give him a full view.

“Ah, yes.  It’s very, um,  nice.”

“Maybe Santa can unwrap Mrs. Claus if he’s a good boy,” Carmen said with a laugh as she ducked close and gave him a quick kiss on the lips.

Yowza.  Chris wasn’t going to have to use much of his charm with Carmen – she was obviously quite willing to slip under the sheets with him.

The food arrived just as Chris and Carmen were finishing setting the table.  Turkey and all the trimmings from one of the nicest restaurants in town.  Surely he had died and gone to heaven.

Just then, the night got even better as Dawn glided down the stairs.  She, too, was dressed in red – just a red teddy that left very little to the imagination.  Chris pinched himself to make sure he wasn’t dreaming.

“Carmen gets to be Mrs. Claus, but I’m the Christmas Mistress. I’m going to get some alone time with Santa, too.”

“Not if I can help it,” countered Carmen, in a mock stern voice.  She brandished a wooden spoon at Dawn.  Dawn giggled and jumped out of range of the weapon.

The food was excellent, but Chris had difficulty focusing on the meal.  His mind was completely focused on the seductively clothed Carmen and the even more seductively attired Dawn.  It took a great deal of effort to avoid having his eyes stare in their direction.

When they finished the pumpkin pie, Carmen suggested plans for later in the evening.

“It’s a nice night for a swim … but we should really stay out of the water for an hour after dinner.  Can you think of any way to kill the time, Dawn?”

“I can think of a way to kill the time and burn off the calories from dinner at the same time.”

“That’s a great idea, Dawn.  Let’s give our guest a better tour of the bedroom.”

The guest bedroom that the girl occupied was massive – featuring walk-in closets on two sides and a pink canopied king size bed in the middle.

“We’ve already decided,” explained Carmen.  “The mistress gets you first, then you come back to the wife.”

Chris nodded slightly and allowed the girls to continue to take control of the situation.  A moment later, he had been stripped to his boxers.

“Wait,” commanded Dawn, as Carmen reached for his waist.  “That’s my package to unwrap.”

Carmen reluctantly agreed, and Dawn slid in front of Chris and pulled his boxers to the floor.

“Now, do me,” she said, wrapping her arms around him and locking his lips in a passionate kiss.

Chris didn’t have to be told twice.  He quickly extricated her from her lingerie and followed her to the bed.

Dawn proved to be a very nimble and willing lover, and Chris was exhausted by the time they finally climaxed.  They lay side by side on the bed for a minute, recovering from the exertion.

“Oh, Santa,” gasped Dawn.  “You can ride my sleigh tonight – and any other night.”

“When you’re done with your sleazy mistress, your wife is waiting, Santa.”

In the passion of the moment, Chris had forgotten about Carmen.  She had been standing by the bed watching.  There was a broad smile on her face as she anticipated her own experience with Santa.

Chris took more time unveiling her body – in small part to give his body time to recover, but mostly to build the anticipation of the moment.  He kissed her neck as he fumbled with the laces on the back of her red dress.  When he had finally freed her from it, he held her in his arms for a moment. 

When they finally arrived at the bed, Chris was pleasantly surprised to find out that Carmen every bit as exciting as Dawn.  He wondered if the girls were gymnasts.  A minute after he finished, Chris fell asleep from exhaustion.

When he awoke, he was still holding Carmen in his arms – but noticed that Dawn had also climbed into the bed and was spooning him.  The girls were both sleeping quietly, so Chris didn’t move – it was a pretty pleasant position.

Forty five minutes later, Carmen yawned and her eyes fluttered open.  It took her a moment to figure out what was going on.  When the pieces clicked into place, she caressed his cheek and gave him a kiss.

“I thought I told her to stay away from you,” she said, pointing at Dawn.  At that moment, a blonde head popped up.

“You know I can give him something you can’t,” countered the mistress.

“Ho, ho, ho.  There’s plenty of Santa to go around.”

“Howe about a dip in the pool,” suggested Dawn.  “That should wake us up a bit.  Then we can take a nice, long shower and return to the bedroom for round 2.”

Chris wasn’t sure that he could handle a second round, but heartily agreed to Dawn’s plan.

“I’m afraid I don’t have any trunks.”

Carmen pretended to take some measurements.  “And I don’t think you’d fit into any of our suits.  I guess you’ll just have to go without a suit.”

“Hey, if he doesn’t have to wear a suit, I don’t want to wear one either,” pouted Dawn.

“That’s fine with me,” Carmen replied with a grin.  “We’ll just keep the lights off and go skinny dipping.”

As they crossed through the kitchen on the way to the outdoor pool, Dawn grabbed a bottle of champagne.

“Santa, would you be a dear and grab a few glasses from that cupboard?”

Chris opened the door and grabbed three crystal wine glasses from a shelf.  When they arrived poolside, Dawn poured three glasses of champagne and suggested that they do a toast.

“To Christmas,” she said.

“To hunky Santas,” added Carmen.

“To the sexy Mrs. Claus and the breathtaking Christmas Mistress.”

They clinked glasses and drank down the bubbly before jumping into the pool.

Chris made sure to lead the girls to the deep end of the pool.  When the drug began to take effect, Carmen and Dawn had no chance to get back to safety.  When Carmen suddenly slid to the bottom of the pool, a trickle of realization entered Dawn’s already clouded mind.  She made an effort to reach the edge of the pool, but was still far from the edge when she, too, slid beneath the surface.

After waiting to make sure they were dead, Chris took a few minutes to wipe his prints from any surface he may have touched.  He grabbed the keys to the Mercedes, popped the trunk, and began loading it with valuables.  He had experienced some good years in the past, but this haul was going to be beyond his wildest dreams.  A merry Christmas indeed.

Plans for 2012

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2011 has been a very good year.  Hyrax Publications (the parent company of The Soap Boxers) turned a profit, as did the Soap Boxers division.  Not a large profit (the hourly rate would be absurdly low), but definitely black ink instead of red.  The number of visitors also hit an all-time high.  What lies ahead for 2012?

  • The 2012 election will get a lot of coverage in The Political Observers column of The Soap Boxers.  I’ll definitely have something special in place for Election Night coverage, although details have not been ironed out.  There will be more than 40 scheduled political articles between now and election day, but you can be sure we’ll sneak in a dozen or so extra articles – and I’m sure the number of comments will increase.
  • We’ll also provide ample coverage of the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, as well the the US Olympic trials.  I’m also very interested in the insights of Olympic fans outside the US, as well as expanding our US-based team.  If you’re interested in becoming part of the Olympic coverage team, send me an email at kosmo@ObservingCasually.com.  We’ll also have an Olympic Fantasy league, where you pick a team and get points for medals your athletes win.
  • If the world ends on December 21, 2012, we’ll be sure to provide coverage.  I’ll likely write and “end of the world” article and schedule it to run on the 22nd.  If the world doesn’t end, I’ll just delete the article.  If the world DOES end, the article will run (assuming that Dreamhost‘s servers survive to apocalypse).  “Winning!”
  • I’ll continue to do some freelance writing on personal finance topics at The Digerati Life, and you may see my name pop up on other sites from time to time.
  • I anticipate launching at least one Kindle novella in 2012.  Hopefully this number will be closer to six.  I have plans for a series of novellas that follow the exploits of a certain character.  I’d love to get two of these launched by mid-year.  As always, you’ll be able to find all my works on my Amazon author page.  (Hey, guess what?  My books will be FREE tomorrow and Sunday.  Merry Christmas!)
  • I’ll also be working with some of the site’s other authors to aid them in launching their own Kindle books.  Tentative plans include a poetry book, a fiction book, and a lighthearted travel book.  The books will be published under the Hyrax Publications imprint.
  • Will we add any new writers in 2012?  Probably.  I have no plans to add any writers at the moment, but I’m sure I’ll want to tinker with things a bit at some point in the year.  I always do.  The most likely additions would be writers from other countries, as I would love to add news and analysis that doesn’t have a distintcly American angle.

What are you – the readers – looking for in 2012?  As a non-niche site, we can definitely tailor the content of the site to reflect what you want.

If the money from your Christmas bonus is burning a hole in your pocket and you want to contribute to the financial success of The Soap Boxers, you can always  PayPal a few bucks to us (email address for contributions is payments@hyraxpublications.com).  Or you can simply continue to read for free.
 

 

What Technological Advances Will The Future Hold?

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Many are in awe of the technology we have today. Indeed, if you took someone from just a century and exposed them to the technologies of today (something forbidden by the Prime Directive), the person’s head would likely explode (a major reason why the Prime Directive forbids it). Cell phones, the internet, live sports on TV, microwaves ovens, cruise control, solar powered devices – previous generations would no doubt be very impressed by the technology.

However, I’m convinced that the future if we took a trip into the future, we like similarly be amazed by technological advances. I won’t try to look forward 100 years, but just 20. What will the world look like in 2031?  Here are a few of my thoughts.

Flying cars?

Flying cars have been on the drawing board for a long time.  There are a lot of advantages to flying cars.  There wouldn’t be wear and tear on roads, it would be easier to avoid collisions with other cars (since can move in three dimensions), and trips would be shorter as you could fly as the crow flies.

On the downside, planes (and by extensions, flying cars) are more difficult to operate (having a plane engine stall out is far worse than having your car engine stall at an intersection) and tend to be considerably more expensive.  Will be get there some day?  Probably – but not by 2031.

Automobile auto-pilot

Cars already have cruise control, crash avoidance systems, stability control, GPS, and some have the ability to parallel park themselves.  The next logical step is to take a page out of airplane handbook and add full auto-pilot technology to cars.  Pull up the GPS navigator, tell it where you want to go, kick your feet up, and let the car do all the work.

Electrified roadways

Researchers at MIT have developed Witricity – a technology that allows wireless transmission of electricity.

While it would be great to be able to cut the cord to consumer electronic devices, I think the real promise of this technology is related to automobiles.  Imagine driving down the road at 70 mph and have the battery in your electric car be recharged by Witricity stations in the roadway (powered by wind energy?)

iGlasses

There’s a basic rule when it comes to video screens.  As you get further from a screen, the screen needs to be larger in order for you to read it.

Conversely, the closer you are to the screen, the smaller it can be.

I wear prescription eyeglasses.  It would be great to watch whatever I wanted to via my glasses.  Books, movies, live sports, the internet, even the outside of my house could be flashed onto the lenses of my glasses.  This could make traditional videos screen redundant.

Expanded use of biometrics

I hate carrying around keys, credit cards, money, and other physical devices that do nothing but give us access to things.  I’d love to see expanded use of biometric – fingerprints, eye scans, or even implantable chips.  It would be nice if I could get into my home, office, or car just by being me – without needed to carry anything on my person.  Likewise, it would be great to buy things without having to pull out my wallet.

On a tangent … I’m a huge fan of NCIS, but they had a massive blooper in one episode.  A couple of people with high clearance were killed and their electronic chips were stolen so that some bad guys could gain access.  If this happened in the real world, you’d simply cancel the chip’s access immediately.  There are two basic components to a security system: authentication and authorization.  An id/password combination or biometric may authenticate who you are, but there needs to be authorization on the back end to actually grant you access.  Without both the proper authentication and authorization, you don’t get access.

Self-cleaning environment

You don’t have to be in the pew every Sunday to know that something’s wrong when we live in a country where we can send astronauts to an international space station but can’t get a toilet clean without getting down on our hands and knees.

Cleaning the house, washing dishes, and doing the laundry take a lot of time for the average family.  Surely there’s some technology that could allows things to be cleaned automatically, with not human interaction.

Transmogrifier

Seriously, if Calvin could invest one, why hasn’t the scientific community be able to duplicate his efforts.  Shameful.

While you’re at it, how about working on the food synthesizer from Star Trek.  It would be great to have a Monical’s pizza whenever I wanted one!
 

 

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Questions About Yu Darvish

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Last night, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters formally accepted an $51.7 offer from the Texas Rangers. This gives the Rangers an exclusive 30 day window to negotiate a contract with Darvish.

But didn’t Darvish get $51.7 million?

No, his team got $51.7 million.  More accurately, his team gets $51.7 million if Darvish and the Rangers reach an agreement.  If Darvish doesn’t sign with the Rangers, the Fighters get nothing.

Why is the team getting fifty million bucks?  Because they are allowing Darvish to leave with two years remaining on his contract.  They are being compensated for the loss of his services.

How much will Yu get?

Almost certainly in excess of $50 million, as he has a strong desire to surpass the deal Daisuke Matsuzaka signed with the Boston Red Sox.  It’s quite possible that he will end up signing a six year deal worth around $75 million, bring the total cost to the Rangers to around $125 million.

I’d be very surprised if the length of the deal was shorter than six years, as six years would buy out Yu’s arbitration years.

Can the Fighters help?

If Darvish and the Rangers end up a few million dollars apart, the logical thing would be for the Fighters to kick in the extra cash to make sure the deal gets done – otherwise they’d risk losing the $51.7 million fee.

However, this is not allowed.

Is he worth the money?

That’s the $125 million question.  Japanese pitchers have had a spotty performance record in MLB.  Part of this is due to the fact that it can be difficult to judge talent when they are playing against Japanese hitters who are a notch below MLB players (but still very good players).  Also, Japan uses smaller baseballs than the US, so there’s an actual physical adjustment.

There are inevitable comparisons to Matsuzaka, but I think Darvish stands to be a better pitcher in MLB than Matsuzaka.  Althought Matsuzaka’s numbers in Japan were very good (108-60, 2.95 ERA), Darvish has been phenomenal, with a 93-38 record and a 1.99 ERA.  Darvish, at 6’5″, is also nearly a half foot taller than Matsuzaka.  (If that seems really tall for a Japanese player, it might be worth pointing out the fact that Yu’s dad is from Iran).

What this all boils down to is that Darvish will likely cost the Rangers a total of $16 to $20 million per year for the duration of his contract (counting the money paid to Darvish and well as the money paid to the Fighters.)  That’s a lot of money, but there won’t be any other cost associated with the signing.  They won’t have to give up prospects in a trade, surrender draft picks by signing a free agent, or even use their own draft pick on him. 

The Rangers were trying to plug the hole left by the departure of C.J. Wilson.  With the acquisition of closer Joe Nathan allowing Neftali Feliz to join the rotation, and now the possible addition of Darvish to the mix, the Rangers should again be a force to be reckoned with – although the Angels, fortified by the addition of Wilson as well as Albert Pujols, should also be a great team.

What’s a Ham Fighter?

The Ham Fighter is a cornerstone of Japanese mythology.  The ham fighter is a pig who takes a sword and shield into battle alongside brave samurai …

Are you believing any of this?  No?

OK, let’s look at the team’s name: Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters.

  • Hokkaido – This is the location of the team.  Hokkaido is the norternmost of Japans four largest islands.
  • Nippon Ham – This is the company that owns the team.  They sell meat, most notably ham. Nippon is Japanese for “Japan”.
  • Fighters – This is the team’s name, equivalent to “Cubs” or “Yankees” for MLB teams.  Calling the team the Ham Fighters is just silly.

How much will Yu’s wife get?

Yu is in the midst of a divorce.  However, I know nothing about Japanese divorce law, so I have no idea how much his wife could get.

Can I buy a “I heart Yu” shirt?

Yes.

I Love Yu shirt
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Is Tim Tebow For Real?

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Once again, Tim Tebow saved the day, rallying the Broncos to an overtime win against the Chicago Bears. Tebow is now 7-1 as a starter, and the Broncos have won six straight and find themselves atop the AFC West.

So, while Tebow is building a reputation as a winner, he’s also criticized for his lackluster numbers. He’s completing less than 50% of his passes (48.5), and averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. Tebow has only topped the 50% rate in three games. However, those three games are the last three, suggesting that he may be improving. He’s only topped 200 yards in two games – but those are the last two games.

The Broncos cut ties with Kyle Orton earlier this year, meaning that the 2011 Broncos are Tebow’s team. However, it remains to be see whether he is the long term answer at quarterback, or whether the Broncos will go after a quarterback in the draft.

What’s my opinion? I think that Tim Tebow is, at best, the second coming. The second coming of Kordell Stewart, that is.

Heisman Trophy

Robert Griffin III of Baylor won the Heisman Trophy.  I was happy to see RG3 grab the award.  Not only does he have the physical tools to succeed, but he’s also a smart guy – he has already earned a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and is working toward a Masters in Communication.  Some teams is going to get a great person – and great player – in the draft.

The Heisman also bring welcome publicity to a Baylor program that was downtrodden in recent years.  Baylor won 4 games in November 2011.  In the prior 15 years, they had won 4 November games, total (an average of about 0.25 wins per year).

Ryan Braun

Reigning National League MVP Ryan Braun made the news by reportedly testing positive for synthetic testosterone.  Although this is bad news for Braun and the Brewers, I think this is good news for baseball.  In the past, the players who tested positive were either players nobody like much (Palmeiro and Manny) or guys nobody had ever heard of.  Braun is a rising superstar just coming into his prime.  A positive test result from such a player indicates that MLB’s testing is on the level, and that there are no sacred cows being protected.

BCS

I’m not a fan of the BCS matchup between LSU and Alabama.  If Alabama wins a squeaker on a neutral field, how does this become more important than LSU’s win at Alabama?  I wonder how big of a win Alabama would need to push ahead of LSU with the computers.

I hate seeing rematches in bowl games.  Alabama had their chance at LSU, and LSU proved that they were better.  Step aside and let the next team have their chance.

NBA

I haven’t followed the NBA much since Magic Johnson retired (and even less since Alonzo Mourning retired).  I must be really out of touch if Marc Gausol is worth $58  million over 4 years.  I don’t mind seeing superstars get paid, but I don’t think MG’s in that class.  I think one of the reasons the NBA is in financial trouble is because they pay role players and minor stars absurd amounts of money – not necessarily that the actual superstars are overpaid.

The Sacrificial Lambs

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Editor’s note: Today’s story is a rerun. This story originally ran on May 21, 2010.

Father Joseph Dugan finally gave in to frustration and set the church’s financial statements off to the side. The once thriving parish was shrinking each year, as the young people went off to college and followed job opportunities out of state. For the last five years, donations had not kept pace with expenses. The parish was having to dip into savings. The account that was intended for capital improvements was quickly being drained.

Father Dugan had more pressing issues to tend to this evening. Agnes Sherrill was being buried in the morning. Agnes had been a parishioner for her entire life – ninety three years. Tonight’s wake had been very small affair. Agnes and her late husband had no children, and Agnes had simply outlived her relatives. There were a handful of friends, as well as people from the parish who turned out to show their appreciation for Agnes’ devotion to the church.

Dugan was always saddened by these types of funerals. It seemed that there had been an awful lot of them lately. Maybe the rotten winter weather was just putting the priest in a pessimistic mood. He shook off the feeling and set his mind to composing a fitting eulogy for such a fine human being.

The next day, as he walked back to the church after the funeral, Father Dugan cheered himself up by thinking of Agnes being with the Lord in heaven. This put him in a better mood, although he knew that Wednesday nights wouldn’t be the same without her boisterous shouts of “Bingo!”.

To Dugan’s great surprise, the mail held good news for the parish. It contained two checks from the estates of deceased parishioners. The money definitely came at an opportune time. The parish would be able to rebuild their capital improvement fund. Perhaps the ancient furnace could finally be replaced, allowing the temperature inside the church to rise back above sixty degrees.

As Dugan thought about the two women who had been so generous, he realized that they had also been honored with very small funerals. Like Agnes Sherrill, they had left behind no living relatives. Once again, Dugan had the distinct feeling that there had been a lot of these types of funerals lately. He decided to prove to himself that he was wrong. He grabbed his calendar and began to leaf through it.

Dugan soon realized that his gut feeling was correct. There had already been six such deaths this year in which the parishioner left behind no living relatives – and it was only March. Most of the previous years had only seen five or six such deaths. Dugan was puzzled. Why was there such a spike this year?

Dugan had no time to ponder such mysteries, and soon put it behind him and immersed himself in church business again.

Father was distributing communion during mass the next Sunday when he noticed that the deacon next to him push aside a couple of hosts, seemingly looking for a specific wafer among the identical hosts. When Dugan saw Deacon Taylor pick up a host whose color was a different shade than the others, the pieces all clicked. Dugan pretended to lose his balance and stumbled into the deacon. Deacon Taylor lost his balance, and dozens of hosts fell to the ground. Dugan handed a host to Mary Davis as Taylor picked up the hosts from the carpet.

After mass, Dugan noticed that the discolored host was no longer present. Dugan was certain that he had seen it, and had a good idea why Taylor had taken it.

Two hours later, Dugan was struggling with a difficult decision when the phone rang. It was a detective from the police department, informing him that Deacon Taylor had walked into the precinct and confessed to poisoning several members of the parish so that the church would inherit money from the estates.

Will Albert Pujols Sign With The Marlins?

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Sources around baseball believe that Albert Pujols will be making a decision about his future in the next few days – perhaps even today. One of the leading contenders for Pujols are the Miami (formerly Florida) Marlins. throwing $200 million at a player is a foreign concept to the Marlins, historically a very cheap organization.

Why do the Marlins want Pujols?
Obviously, Pujols is a great player.  But he’s also a Hispanic player, and 70% of Miami residents are hispanic.  Adding Pujols to current Marlin Hanley Ramirez and recently signed Jose Reyes would give the Marlins a trio of hispanic superstars.  In fact, all three are natives of the Dominican Republic.

The Marlins have been infamous for large expanses of empty orange seats.  Even with a new name, logo, stadium, and hispanic superstars, will the Marlins draw fans?  That’s the $200 million question at the moment.

Does the deal make sense for the Marlins?

Only if they are committed to building a winner around Pujols.  If they are forced to trade Pujols in mid-contract, they could be forced to pay a portion of the remaining contract in order to move him.  Big contracts are hard to move, even for great players.  Tom Hicks learned this the hard way when the Ranger unloaded Alex Rodriguez in mid-contract.  The Rangers were forced to subsidize the cost of A-Rod to the Yankees.

Then there’s the issue of money – likely to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $225 – $235 million over ten years.  That’s a ton of money, but the larger concerns is the length of the deal.  Pujols will officially be 32 when the season begins, although there has been speculation that he is older.  Even if he’s just 32, this means he’d be 41 in the last year of the deal.  There are a lot of great players who were washed up long before age 41.

Pujols is also rumored to be demanding a no trade clause.  He might accept a limited no-trade clause, but will likely want other concessions (or more money) to accept this.

Does the deal make sense for Pujols?

No.

Pujols has his hand in a lot of things in the St. Louis are.  He makes a lot more money than his baseball income.  He’s a revered figure, and companies line up to have Pujols endorse them.

Would Pujols also have a lot of endorsement opportunities in Miami?  Definitely.  However, as part of the trio, he might be splitting opportunities with Reyes and Ramirez.  In St. Louis, he’s clearly the main man, even in the presence of players such as Holliday, Carpenter, and Wainwright.  While the fact that he’s hispanic will play well in the hispanic community, it’s really never been an obstacle to marketing opportunities in St. Louis.

More importantly, the Cardinals are a franchise that has consistently shown a commitment to winning.  The Marlins, on the other hand, have often gone into slash-and-burn mode and cut loose high-priced players.  As a result, the Cardinals have a large and devoted fan base, while the Marlins do not.

Even if the money is a bit less, I think the experience will be better in St. Louis.

 

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